Spud's Predictive MTF Stochastics | Page 8 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Spud's MTF FIB Breakout System 383 replies

MTF Stochastics 1,485 replies

MTF Stochastics into MTF Stoch Histogram 8 replies

Trading MTF STochastics Manual 13 replies

Journal related to: Spud's MTF Stochastics 178 replies

Attachments: Spud's Predictive MTF Stochastics
Exit Attachments

Spud's Predictive MTF Stochastics

  • #141
  • Nov 3, 2008 9:18pm Nov 3, 2008 9:18pm
Quoting Spudfyre
Good question. No idea. But I don't see why not....it would follow the same logic, though be quite a long trade. You've sparked my interest...will have to look at that.
Or I should have said the 15m and 1hr charts cause the whole world is on the same page there...

Loving this thread thanks
Time hides Nothing
  • #142
  • Nov 3, 2008 9:23pm Nov 3, 2008 9:23pm
I'm 2 for 2 now. First trade was +15 and this one just hit +30. Thanks Spud. The main thing I like about this system is that there is little almost no drawdown.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.jpg Size: 102 KB
  • #143
  • Nov 3, 2008 10:36pm Nov 3, 2008 10:36pm
Question for anyone: Does the 15 min stoch need to be above 20 or below 80 to instigate a trade?

Cheers
Time hides Nothing
  • #144
  • Nov 3, 2008 11:27pm Nov 3, 2008 11:27pm
Heres one I just noticed... Entry at the close of the 15 minute candle at 1.2581. Took a bit of heat at the start prob cause it was banging around right at the 50% fib retracement level of the last move down.

Next be looking to go in the direction of the trend.

I think this could work well with fib analysis - Just a thought.

BTW Spud do you ever pay much attention to divergence? Before reading your thread this was pretty much all I ever used the stochs for.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu15.gif Size: 11 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu5.gif Size: 15 KB
Time hides Nothing
  • #145
  • Nov 3, 2008 11:36pm Nov 3, 2008 11:36pm
Hey Spud, I just wan to thank you for all your help and insight. Your system is logically and fairly easy to implement once you know what to look for.
  • #146
  • Edited Nov 4, 2008 12:33am Nov 3, 2008 11:55pm | Edited Nov 4, 2008 12:33am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Hey Spud

Is it possible to use the same logic on the 1 and 4 hr charts instead of the 5 and 15m? Or is there too much time in between to get a defined entry point?

I guess the beauty of the 5 and 15 is that everyone in the world sees the same data where as a 4hr chart for me here in Australia will be completely different (in terms of open and closes) to a 4hr chart of someone in London or the US
right, candlestick patterns work good despite time shifts (broker times); sto (and basically all indis) should perform equally no matter what Tf is ...
sto14 - on 4H 14 bars: 6+6+2; covers 2days and 8 hours data ... should be ok...
Spud said 4h tf lags; may be specific of 4hours time periods (sessions time, market activity) and intraday? and also - waiting 4h candle to close - may be too long, move is gone,- too late (might depend on what bar, what time, part of the day)?
  • #147
  • Edited 12:33am Nov 4, 2008 12:03am | Edited 12:33am
also may be someone had experience with sto on (2,6 8h tfs) (period converter, mt4) or on other platforms?
  • #148
  • Edited 3:20am Nov 4, 2008 12:05am | Edited 3:20am
good morning spud
thanks for all the attention you give us
about the all stochastic indicator i ve been using it for quiet a long time and im sure its working perfectly .from my point of view the diferrences you tak about are due to the zoom and the width of the line
take a look for this charts
the normal 15-30-1h charts
and the all stock for the same time frames but on 5m screen
the zoom and the width are the same
i would like you to test the indicator life
and im waitting for you comments
thank you a lot
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: spud2.gif Size: 51 KB
  • #149
  • Nov 4, 2008 12:11am Nov 4, 2008 12:11am
i ve an idea for a better view and for the new users of our method
its a way to identify easily the last closed bar from the active opened one
buy overlaying the stocastic indicator and the no last bar indicator in on window but with different colors like this ex
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: spud2.gif Size: 40 KB
  • #150
  • Nov 4, 2008 12:57am Nov 4, 2008 12:57am
In my demo account

Long Entry
- 15M up after 5M trigger
- all TF have a lot of space for up
- Just concern this time is strong down trend from yesterday

Maximum Drawdown -15pips

Possible Exit (+37Pips)
- I found strong down TL in 15M from yesterday
- but I consider this as `Escalator to Pips` opportunity
- Moved SL to 10pips and I decided to let price go where It can
(but If I have big live account I would exit here)

Stopped Out Exit (+39pips)
- I moved SL to strong support line before I leave the computer to do something else and price hit SL
- still there is no valid short signal and on the way of Escalator to pips
- But I can find downward convergence in 5M Stochastic
- 39pips is more than good for a day

Asian session today gives a lot of opportunity for PMTFS
I checked it If I took all of them it is more than 100+ pips for conervative and safe Exit.
But should be staying not greedy !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: PMTFS20081104-3.png Size: 77 KB
  • #151
  • Nov 4, 2008 3:44am Nov 4, 2008 3:44am
If I witnessed 3 losses in a row today on EUR/USD does that mean I'm doing something wrong?
Time hides Nothing
  • #152
  • Nov 4, 2008 4:23am Nov 4, 2008 4:23am
Quoting CindyXXXX
If I witnessed 3 losses in a row today on EUR/USD does that mean I'm doing something wrong?
defintitely
  • #153
  • Nov 4, 2008 4:37am Nov 4, 2008 4:37am
Quoting Jmc
Thanks again for all the examples Spud, good to compare with my charts. Just a quick question about stops though; I know you have said your stops are dynamic but I'm wondering about when you move your stop to break even.

Thanks again for the help,

J
I typically set my stop at 50. It is only there for an emergency. With this method you can certainly tighten your stops quite a bit and move them with the flow. I certainly would not go less than 20 and you may find that you need to adjust that...depending on what your stochastics are doing.

I move my stop to breakeven, spread loss or +1 or 2 pips when I see things going against me. A good example is the trade where M5 and M15 turned against the long trade a few posts earlier. You don't want to immediately exit these trades (you can), you want to give yourself room to ride them....nothing wrong with walking away with even 5 PIPS on a trade that turns against you.

If you hunt for 20-30 PIPS a trade or even 10-15 PIPS a trade your hit on stops will shrink significantly.
  • #154
  • Nov 4, 2008 4:57am Nov 4, 2008 4:57am
Here's an example of a long trade and your exit choices. I'm out on the first trigger with 59 PIPS (63 PIPS). But you could have exited on any of the short triggers or ran it right to the end. Notice what M15 is doing and how it supports our trade until the end.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Pic 0047 Nov 4 0630 63 PIPS.gif Size: 62 KB
  • #155
  • Nov 4, 2008 5:21am Nov 4, 2008 5:21am
Quoting Spudfyre
defintitely
Ok good to know!

I will post a chart here of one of them they all looked the same as this so I won't post all 3...

Reason I thought it was valid...

1- 5 min trigger above 90.
2- 5 min price went under trigger "start price" (red line)
3- 15 min stoch turned down on 15 min close
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 12 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu15.gif Size: 10 KB
Time hides Nothing
  • #156
  • Nov 4, 2008 5:38am Nov 4, 2008 5:38am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Ok good to know!

I will post a chart here of one of them they all looked the same as this so I won't post all 3...

Reason I thought it was valid...

1- 5 min trigger above 90.
2- 5 min price went under trigger \"start price\" (red line)
3- 15 min stoch turned down on 15 min close
This set-up is what I wanted to ask to Spud as well

I also thought this is valid signal to take ( maybe not?)
But I didn`t take bacause 30M 1H 4H was all up and looked strong.
This can be risky trade.

I just simulated entry and exit by looking and following during this set-up`s going

In my simulated trade
Maximum profit was 5pips
and -50pips Stopped out


From viewpoint of `Escalator to Pips` which I took before this set-up, this was big drawdown on the way to over 100pips trade.

Just My opinion
  • #157
  • Nov 4, 2008 5:42am Nov 4, 2008 5:42am
If you traded with just the M5 and M15 on the next short trade, you'd hit your stop and lose.
This is classic Escalator to PIPS long trade and knowing MTF Stochastics would keep you out of trouble here. In MTF Stochastics we'd be riding the M30 up and waiting for the H1 to climb as well. This is where the M30,H1 and H4 can save you from a bad trade entry.
If you didn't know of MTF, than even with M5 and M15 alone you'd see lots of clues to get out of this trade.
Someone asked about divergence. Early on I spoke about divergence. Here we have M5 price rising and M15 falling...and we know that M15 is going to follow M5 price. That's our first clue for trouble. The next is when M15 rises and we can see an invalid short trigger..this is our MUST EXIT point.
By this time you would not be entering any short trades looking at M30,H1 and H4. Here MTF rules kick in.

Always remember that we want M5 PRICE to BUILD our trade and M15 stochastic to follow. This is extremely important in detecting these kind of moves. M5 Price is going up and M15 stochastic is going down...that's bad in a short trade. Vice versa if you are long.

If your an MTF STochastics Trader, you know this classic setup for Escalator to PIPS long and you simply follow the MTF Stochastic rules here. What we don't want is MTF STochastics and Predictive MTFS contradicting each other like they would here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Pic 0047 MTF SAVE.gif Size: 73 KB
  • #158
  • Nov 4, 2008 5:57am Nov 4, 2008 5:57am
Below is same chart showing the Escalator to Pips. The stochastics now only have 2 moves...to drop down on M5, M15, M30 and H1 to bring H4 back up...or to stay in the overbought region.
What we are looking for in the short arena is the M30 to start to fall below 80 with M5 and M15 leading the way. There may need to be a few cycles of M5/M15 up and down before we get things lined up right to know we are headed down.
If things stay overbought, M5 and M15 will cycle up and down or hover in the higher stochastics while M30 and H1 will likely stay above 80 until H4 climbs up. When they are all up we watch for the drops to start to happen.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Pic 0049 Escalator.gif Size: 77 KB
  • #159
  • Nov 4, 2008 7:48am Nov 4, 2008 7:48am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Question for anyone: Does the 15 min stoch need to be above 20 or below 80 to instigate a trade?

Cheers
Good question....I have been curious about the same issue.
  • #160
  • Nov 4, 2008 8:11am Nov 4, 2008 8:11am
Quoting wrenski
Good question....I have been curious about the same issue.
After I looked at some recent entries on the past few pages by Spudfyer it seems for the predictave method it doesn't have to rise above 20 below 80...

I think thats just for other methods such as escalator to pips.

I thought I almost had this stuff figured out until this recent post about the escalator filtering out false predictive MTF entries... I think I may have some reading to do

But would like to put it out there: IS there any black and white rules we could go by by knowing when NOT to trade the predictive entry>?

Or do we need to first understand other MTF methods before taking this on?
Time hides Nothing
6 traders viewing now