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Spud's Predictive MTF Stochastics

  • #121
  • Nov 3, 2008 9:56am Nov 3, 2008 9:56am
Quoting Bradev
Spud, thanks for the time and effort involved in explaining you system. I was wondering what % of trades, do you estimate, are winners? Also, how many trades do you experience during a session?
My winning percentage is very high...extremely high with this sytem. I can't give you exact % because I use a variety of ways to exit. If I were to simply exit on the opposite trigger, this would give the highest % wins but not neccessarily the highest PIP returns. I also play to make only 20 PIPS a day and put value in my PIPS rather than trying to gain some ungodly amount of PIPS everyday. So that would have bearing on my win %...as on days I feel like following for a longer trend and larger PIPS, I may loose...but I wouldn't normally take that risk without some other reason.

If you play this system with just the M5 and M15 you will find yourself in plenty of trades everyday.
  • #122
  • Nov 3, 2008 9:57am Nov 3, 2008 9:57am
Quoting sarah2002
thanks spud for your explanation
i ll try to practice for a while before going life untill i master it
what platform do you use
mine is altrade i think maybe the different reading of the stochastic is due to the different time zone platform cause i rechecked the stochastic indicators it all working fine
thanks a million
Can you post your "normal" M15 stochastic for that trade time frame....I'd like to see your M15 versus mine.
  • #123
  • Nov 3, 2008 10:06am Nov 3, 2008 10:06am
Remember the M30,H1 and H4 are your guages, they tell you how things are generally, where you are in the world, etc. You don't need these to trade this method, but if you are familiar with MTF Stochastics they can be a great help in allowing you to skip trades and/or stay in trades longer. For example if they are all oversold, going short is probably a bad idea and vice versa.

The problem with watching candles live is they may go against you and you may make a rash decision...only to find the candle closes in your favour. This has haapened so much to me, I stick to strict discipline in only watching candle closes. Otherwise, I know my entire trading strategy changes to the ups and downs of the candles and it shouldn't.

Quoting deepermind
In my demo account

Short Entry
- 15M closed Down after 5M short Trigger
- 30M 1H heading down above 80line
- 4H Up but ignored
- 3/4 TF agree on Short Entry

Stop Loss 45pips (above previous hight candle but less than 50pips)
Maximum Drawdown -15pips

Possible Exit (+27Pips)
- 15M reached 20line
- but 30M 1H still down
- I decided to stay

Must Exit (+60pips)
- 15M heading up after 5M long trigger

Long Entry (Not Sure)
- 15M closed up above 20line after 5M long trigger
- 30M is heading up (but still not closed)
- 4H Up
- 1H still down (this made me hesitated)
- I thought 3/4 TF agree on Long entry

now +47pips but I`m not sure this was valid long entry or just luck
any advice welcome....
  • #124
  • Nov 3, 2008 10:07am Nov 3, 2008 10:07am
Quoting sarah2002
pls spud can you at the end of each day talk to us about the right signals that you took because i feel its easy when i read the method but when i go life it isnt that easy to trade
i think we still need more life examples for more understanding
thank you
I'll being providing more.
  • #125
  • Edited 10:49am Nov 3, 2008 10:21am | Edited 10:49am
I had my first considerable loss this morning. I entered the E/U @ 14:40 GMT. The M5 had triggered for a long, the M15 was up and had moved above the 20 line, and the M30 was up. The market moved down slowly after I entered and went into a range for a while then moved down quickly for my loss. Did I read something wrong or did the market just move against me?

Thanks - W.
  • #126
  • Nov 3, 2008 12:28pm Nov 3, 2008 12:28pm
Thank you for good advice Spud!

I just considered this method as advanced MTFS with M5 entry.
I should definately try to trade with PMTFS rules (with only M5 and M15)
for smaller but safer profit 10~20pips which is big enough for 1 day.
  • #127
  • Nov 3, 2008 12:35pm Nov 3, 2008 12:35pm
Quoting Spudfyre
Can you post your \"normal\" M15 stochastic for that trade time frame....I'd like to see your M15 versus mine.
here is mine
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #128
  • Edited 2:36pm Nov 3, 2008 2:25pm | Edited 2:36pm
a buy signal in a down trend
if we exit at the daily low line we have 35 pips in pocket but we dont ve an exit signal yet
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: spud1.gif Size: 15 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: spud2.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #129
  • Nov 3, 2008 4:30pm Nov 3, 2008 4:30pm
Quoting wrenski
I had my first considerable loss this morning. I entered the E/U @ 14:40 GMT. The M5 had triggered for a long, the M15 was up and had moved above the 20 line, and the M30 was up. The market moved down slowly after I entered and went into a range for a while then moved down quickly for my loss. Did I read something wrong or did the market just move against me?

Thanks - W.
Can you post your chart for your entry time.
  • #130
  • Nov 3, 2008 5:10pm Nov 3, 2008 5:10pm
Quoting sarah2002
a buy signal in a down trend
if we exit at the daily low line we have 35 pips in pocket but we dont ve an exit signal yet
Great entry example, here's the exit...I'd exit on the short triggers and take the 35 PIPS. You can see if you ride this out the result is not great as the up trend is slowly turning on us. Notice that the MUST EXIT point here is when the long is no longer valid....we have another long trigger but M15 is headed south.
You will see these small gains and losses quite a bit when trend hunting for big PIPS but they typically pay off with one good trend and 100+ PIPS.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #131
  • Nov 3, 2008 5:42pm Nov 3, 2008 5:42pm
The change in M15 %K is viewed as the change over the past 15 minutes (or last candle). You can see the difference we get by looking at different zoom levels the show longer than the 15 minute time frame. The black arrow shows the 15 minute change.
The MTF stochastic on the left is not showing a 15 minute time frame, or if it is, it is skewing the line to to adjust for the multiple time frames. The one on the right looks similar to my M15 zoomed out at 30 minute intervals.
If you look closely at the MTF stochastic indicator you can see it is close, but it is rounding the stochastic slightly that it is very difficult to see ytthe exact 15 minute differences. This will be very problematic in looking for small %K changes. It looks to me like the last stochastic is candle on the MTF is adjusting to the other time frames and will not actually settle into a final shape until more candles have closed. This was a problem we saw with many single MTF stochastic indicators. I can't be sure without seeing the next few time frames but that is how it appears.
You can see I'm not a huge fan of the single MTF stochastic indicator.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Pic 0041 M15 Time.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #132
  • Nov 3, 2008 5:49pm Nov 3, 2008 5:49pm
Spud - sorry for the delay on posting my charts...I still have a day job

The dotted vertical lines depict my long entry point.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #133
  • Nov 3, 2008 6:09pm Nov 3, 2008 6:09pm
Here's my latest entry
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #134
  • Nov 3, 2008 6:18pm Nov 3, 2008 6:18pm
I exited at +30 PIPS, that's where I set my stop. Though I could have kept going.......and looking at the climb while I did this chart...I could have done much better. However, I'm more than happy with my PIPS today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #135
  • Nov 3, 2008 7:18pm Nov 3, 2008 7:18pm
Quoting wrenski
Spud - sorry for the delay on posting my charts...I still have a day job

The dotted vertical lines depict my long entry point.
This is a nasty trade indeed. Your entry is fine, mine is a little earlier. We could have exited at 30-40 PIPS. However, the circle shows a whole area of worry. Remember we want our M5 to build M15 in the direction of our trade. You'll notice in all my trade examples that we are typically in the trade while M15 is being built by M5 in the direction of the trade. What is happening in the red circle is the opposite build and you have to decide how far you'll take this. I'd go no further than breakeven seeing something like this or lose my spread at worst. However, take 1 or 2 PIPS and wait for another trade. Don't follow M15 reversals against our trade for too long or too deep. The only exception would be a steep dive by M5 and it heads to the long trigger very quickly where we receive a valid long again..then I'd stay and ride that up again..in that situation you can't react to the quick price drop and either we'll get a valid long or an invalid long very quickly. In this situation, there is lots of time to think that M5 is not building an upwards M15 and we need to exit.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #136
  • Nov 3, 2008 7:32pm Nov 3, 2008 7:32pm
Here's another trade...I exited at 20 PIPS. This has been a very easy day for me to make over 100 PIPS just chipping away at these trades catching small pip gains by setting my targets to +20-30 PIPS.

You can see in the last few trade examples how M5 is always building M15 in the direction of the trade. I'm usually gone before it moves in the opposite direction...but if you're up PIPS and M15 turns against you...just exit and catch the next one. It will be far less stresfull on you.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Pic 0045 20 PIPS.gif Size: 58 KB
  • #137
  • Nov 3, 2008 7:35pm Nov 3, 2008 7:35pm
Same entry as last chart....if you are in this trade this is where I'd exit. Why not...you got some good PIPS by now. (about 50-55 PIPS)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Pic 0046 Exit.gif Size: 56 KB
  • #138
  • Nov 3, 2008 8:39pm Nov 3, 2008 8:39pm
Hey Spud

Is it possible to use the same logic on the 1 and 4 hr charts instead of the 5 and 15m? Or is there too much time in between to get a defined entry point?

I guess the beauty of the 5 and 15 is that everyone in the world sees the same data where as a 4hr chart for me here in Australia will be completely different (in teerms of open and closes) to a 4hr chart of someone in London or the US
Time hides Nothing
  • #139
  • Nov 3, 2008 8:53pm Nov 3, 2008 8:53pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
Hey Spud

Is it possible to use the same logic on the 1 and 4 hr charts instead of the 5 and 15m? Or is there too much time in between to get a defined entry point?

I guess the beauty of the 5 and 15 is that everyone in the world sees the same data where as a 4hr chart for me here in Australia will be completely different (in teerms of open and closes) to a 4hr chart of someone in London or the US
Good question. No idea. But I don't see why not....it would follow the same logic, though be quite a long trade. You've sparked my interest...will have to look at that.
  • #140
  • Nov 3, 2008 9:06pm Nov 3, 2008 9:06pm
Thanks again for all the examples Spud, good to compare with my charts. Just a quick question about stops though; I know you have said your stops are dynamic but I'm wondering about when you move your stop to break even.

Thanks again for the help,

J
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