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  • #42,941
  • Nov 2, 2008 8:33pm Nov 2, 2008 8:33pm
Quoting To Be
Weel
I doubt it is a correct wolfe wave
Wave 1-2 is very short comparing by wave 3-4

But if you use 1H frame instead of 2H, you’ll see a very nice wolfe wave out there.

I define the waves manually, the indicator gave me wrong numeric.

Can you define what disqualifies a would be wolf wave from a wave I should pay attention to. The concept seems to be that a descending or ascending triangle ( contracting or expanding ) will give you a target on the break out. I could be way wrong on this and any help on the level of my ignorance would be appreciated
Can you post your wave on the one hour and show the points you are using. Thanks
  • #42,942
  • Nov 2, 2008 8:38pm Nov 2, 2008 8:38pm
Quoting ak4x
Been watching this one since last week on the EJ 2hr. A thing of beauty... as long as it doesn't go all Quasimodo on me...
Wow, thanks for the tip AK.
On the 1H or 4H didn't look that beautiful, would have seen it.
  • #42,943
  • Nov 2, 2008 8:39pm Nov 2, 2008 8:39pm
Quoting Chicky
Is there any guru out there who agrees with me that it is going down today to 1.2700?

Someone Called Chicky
No guru, but if if EJ doesn't clearly break that 50% Daily level it's currently retesting, EU isn't going anywhere either. Not up anyway.

My sense is that someone is using the low liquidity tonite to set a nice bull trap. I'm shorting it. If wrong, then they got me. Oh well. If not, I see alot more downside than upside here atm.

Not playing this game tonite tho. Wide stops are set and I'm done till NY. (done trading, not lurking)
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FUBAR...
  • #42,944
  • Nov 2, 2008 8:44pm Nov 2, 2008 8:44pm
Quoting cobraforex
Wow, thanks for the tip AK.
On the 1H or 4H didn't look that beautiful, would have seen it.
yeah, but it's gettin a little quasimodo on me, I guess I'm not really surprised tho. (see previous post on bull trap)

But it is annoying. I don't like the drawdown on these kind of sessions. Don't know why I'm even trading, Stupid I guess. Oh well. I'm feeling ok about them still, just annoyed. I'll come back when they're mucho pips in profit and tell myself, "told you so".

Of course, if wrong, then one of you guys can tell me that...
FUBAR...
  • #42,945
  • Nov 2, 2008 8:48pm Nov 2, 2008 8:48pm
Quoting ak4x
yeah, but it's gettin a little quasimodo on me, I guess I'm not really surprised tho. (see previous post on bull trap)

But it is annoying. I don't like the drawdown on these kind of sessions. Don't know why I'm even trading, Stupid I guess. Oh well. I'm feeling ok about them still, just annoyed. I'll come back when they're mucho pips in profit and tell myself, \"told you so\".

Of course, if wrong, then one of you guys can tell me that...
You testament to eurjpy leading eurusd doesn't add up for me. JPY pairs are in a world of their own, IMHO.
  • #42,946
  • Nov 2, 2008 8:49pm Nov 2, 2008 8:49pm
japan intervetion.. going to surprise people include this pair
"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" leonardo da vinci
  • #42,947
  • Edited 8:52pm Nov 2, 2008 8:50pm | Edited 8:52pm
[quote=ak4x;2321189]No guru, but if if EJ doesn't clearly break that 50% Daily level it's currently retesting, EU isn't going anywhere either. Not up anyway.

Thanks for the feedback. As compared to my knowlege, most of you are gurus. I have very simple ways of analyzing price behavior but find them reasonably effective on 60M and 15M time frames. Will watch my position today, in case it tuns out bullish.

Someone Called Chicky
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #42,948
  • Nov 2, 2008 8:50pm Nov 2, 2008 8:50pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
Not too convinced of that, myself. H&S normally singnify change of trend not continuation.

Look at a 4 hour and notice inverted oct 22 shoulder, oct 27 head, and nov 1st shoulder. That seems more convincing to me, shows reversal, IMO. But I am a little tenative to leap in here either way.
No, I do not buy the inverted H & S on the 4 hour chart. This is because either a level neckline has already been seriously breached to the upside, or it is a neckline too seriously angled up to validate the formation. The formation on the 1 hour chart, which may only now be putting in the top of the right shoulder, is a much cleaner formation so far.
  • #42,949
  • Nov 2, 2008 8:54pm Nov 2, 2008 8:54pm
gurus can be wrong to .
  • #42,950
  • Nov 2, 2008 9:01pm Nov 2, 2008 9:01pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
You testament to eurjpy leading eurusd doesn't add up for me. JPY pairs are in a world of their own, IMHO.
That's ok, it's been adding up for me really well for quite awhile now as I would think any number of back posts will bear out. Just like the Yen is in a world of its own and almost every other pair is currently hooked to it on a short leash. This may change of course in time, but not today.

I would however agree the UJ is in a world of its own, and I've often referred to it as the anti-currency. I quit trading it when the two strongest currencies in the world wound up in the same pair.

Dollar is essentially stronger, but Yen is in more demand. Or something like that...
FUBAR...
  • #42,951
  • Nov 2, 2008 9:09pm Nov 2, 2008 9:09pm
Quoting scuturici
gurus can be wrong to .
But not all the time. Being wrong less than 50% of the time is all one needs in this business. Trade well.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #42,952
  • Nov 2, 2008 9:10pm Nov 2, 2008 9:10pm
Quoting ak4x
That's ok, it's been adding up for me really well for quite awhile now as I would think any number of back posts will bear out. Just like the Yen is in a world of its own and almost every other pair is currently hooked to it on a short leash. This may change of course in time, but not today.

I would however agree the UJ is in a world of its own, and I've often referred to it as the anti-currency. I quit trading it when the two strongest currencies in the world wound up in the same pair.

Dollar is essentially stronger, but Yen is in more demand. Or something like that...
I yeah, I can agree USDJPY is odd. I alway found it to drive other jpy pairs. You have been very successful with that strategy so it is working for now.
  • #42,953
  • Nov 2, 2008 9:11pm Nov 2, 2008 9:11pm
closed long for 15 pips, going to get a good nights rest and let it play out without me.

GL all

edit: something is going on.
  • #42,954
  • Nov 2, 2008 9:15pm Nov 2, 2008 9:15pm
my 2 cents for the start of this trading week, considering my own and other's analysis theres 2 possibilities now

1)the head and shoulder i talked about last week and today traderathome going into elaborate detail about it.

2)the 4hour chart cannot be denied....if one considers elliot waves it does look really good for a continuation up...the run up from the low to 1.32xx was wave 1 and the run down to 1.2680 was wave 2(61.8% retracement) and now we could potentially see wave 3. the problem with this theory is that would imply we may reach 1.4 or higher considering the length of wave 1 which just does not fly with me

conclusion:...it is too early to determine what is going on but a break of 1.2680 should be short confirmation while a break of 1.29xx or 1.3000 would be bullish confirmation. i do currently have a short bias but price action will dictate all once it decides
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #42,955
  • Nov 2, 2008 9:20pm Nov 2, 2008 9:20pm
Here's the thing...

1. GY drops any minute now... I'm short. (Lower 3m BB at 61.10-20ish, BUT the 6m is WAY down there at 160.00 )

2. EJ tags along nicley... I'm also short.

3. EU sort of follows on down as well... not even bothering tonite.

No power in the EU moves = price action too weird and wimpy.
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FUBAR...
  • #42,956
  • Nov 2, 2008 9:23pm Nov 2, 2008 9:23pm
Quoting ak4x
Of course, if wrong, then one of you guys can tell me that...
Well, it worked for me seeing the smaller TF, a fast 32 pips scalp. Done for the night.

Thanks again AK and good night, I own you some chalk
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  • #42,957
  • Nov 2, 2008 9:27pm Nov 2, 2008 9:27pm
Quoting psiholog
conclusion:...it is too early to determine what is going on but a break of 1.2680 should be short confirmation while a break of 1.29xx or 1.3000 would be bullish confirmation. i do currently have a short bias but price action will dictate all once it decides
My thoughts are we are in Wave C of an ABC 4th Wave of a higher Wave 3 of 5 down from the alltime highs. 4Hour chart.
  • #42,958
  • Nov 2, 2008 9:28pm Nov 2, 2008 9:28pm
other then my previous analysis...heres how i see the current pa
we are in an uptrend since the low on friday. channel walls are clear with midline somewhat accurate. as i always say when pa sticks to one side of the wall it breaks violently to the other side...possibly even breaking the uptrend(which is what usually happens) but this is to be seen as resistance 2 on my pivots (thanks again cobra) is just around the corner. good pippin all...i am currently short with a small position with a wide stop (call it being cocky) however i do NOT advise anyone to follow my decisions and purely use my analysis as a second opinion only


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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #42,959
  • Nov 2, 2008 9:28pm Nov 2, 2008 9:28pm
Quoting knuckledrag
Can you define what disqualifies a would be wolf wave from a wave I should pay attention to. The concept seems to be that a descending or ascending triangle ( contracting or expanding ) will give you a target on the break out. I could be way wrong on this and any help on the level of my ignorance would be appreciated
Can you post your wave on the one hour and show the points you are using. Thanks
Here is the one I told you about.

http://i38.tinypic.com/mmeuyt.jpg

I am not saying yours is wrong, it is just a doubt.

One major problem with wolfe wave is there is no pre-define rules about the distances between waves. Some references has identify the distance relationship between wave 1-3 and wave 2-4, but it is complicated calculation and honestly I didn’t go deeply in that one since it is not approved yet in addition i hate math
  • #42,960
  • Nov 2, 2008 9:29pm Nov 2, 2008 9:29pm
Quoting SunTrader
My thoughts are we are in Wave C of an ABC 4th Wave of a higher Wave 3 of 5 down from the alltime highs. 4Hour chart.
i would appreciate if you posted a chart for this...thanks in advance wether you can or not
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
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