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  • #42,921
  • Nov 2, 2008 5:38pm Nov 2, 2008 5:38pm
The way we are going is down, but (and anyone that counts this different please speak up) I think we have reached the end of wave five in EW count and now have the setup for an ABC retrace or a large triangle. Triangles are common at the end of large moves (or so I've read). If you see this and have something you think is better please go with it.
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  • #42,922
  • Nov 2, 2008 6:08pm Nov 2, 2008 6:08pm
Quoting traderathome
I don't know about OANDA weekend trading or a miniscule 15 pip gap up, but the long term trend is down. There is a base in the 1.2300 area, and there is a H & S formation that is complete and it is running down. See the attached 1 hour chart with 4 white lines. The top line marks the Head. The second line down marks the tops of the shoulders. And the third line down marks the neckline. The fourth line down is the target. And note that the fib extensions applied to the bollinger band pinch also show a target in the same area at the fourth line!

So one reasonable hypothesis (and that is all it is) is that this is trending down to the previous base at 1.2300 regardless of upside pullbacks on the...
You seems to be pretty sure of yourself but nothing is impossible in forex
  • #42,923
  • Nov 2, 2008 6:36pm Nov 2, 2008 6:36pm
Dollar index about to fall big time = Higher gbp/usd and eur/usd
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Twitter: Forexlivetrade - Buy: AFFI.CPH ISIN: DK0015966592 - target 12 DKK
  • #42,924
  • Nov 2, 2008 6:50pm Nov 2, 2008 6:50pm
Quoting knuckledrag
The way we are going is down, but (and anyone that counts this different please speak up) I think we have reached the end of wave five in EW count and now have the setup for an ABC retrace or a large triangle. Triangles are common at the end of large moves (or so I've read). If you see this and have something you think is better please go with it.
Hello everyone

Knuckledrag
Nice vision

The only note – if there is any – is wave3 seems to be equal to wave5.
In this case we have the right to predict the wave5 is the longest which means the ABC correction waves not start yet

Still not confirmed, but still it is maybe

Regards
  • #42,925
  • Nov 2, 2008 7:15pm Nov 2, 2008 7:15pm
Quoting jckm
Dollar index about to fall big time = Higher gbp/usd and eur/usd
The trendline marking the shoulders for a bearish H&S gets drawn underneath, not above. And right now it hasn't fallen below that point - so it isn't confirmed.
  • #42,926
  • Nov 2, 2008 7:22pm Nov 2, 2008 7:22pm
Quoting gagakrimba
You seems to be pretty sure of yourself but nothing is impossible in forex
You are right....everything is possible in forex, including extreme manipulation and "news" deception. But, the long term trend is down for now. It is down because the world is in financial turmoil, and regardless of who is responsible everyone knows the US is likely to best deal with it. Hence, the Dollar strengthens, and is likely to continue to do so for some time to come. This is my hypothesis. The only thing I am sure of is that charts show what has happened and what is happening.....not what will happen.
  • #42,927
  • Nov 2, 2008 7:25pm Nov 2, 2008 7:25pm
Quoting To Be
Hello everyone

Knuckledrag
Nice vision

The only note – if there is any – is wave3 seems to be equal to wave5.
In this case we have the right to predict the wave5 is the longest which means the ABC correction waves not start yet

Still not confirmed, but still it is maybe

Regards...
Three is the larger, but five didn't reach the fib line. Nothing works all the time. I'm more interested in your view on the wolf wave I posted showing a target for a C wave
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  • #42,928
  • Nov 2, 2008 7:33pm Nov 2, 2008 7:33pm
Quoting jckm
Dollar index about to fall big time = Higher gbp/usd and eur/usd
If you are suggesting the chart is forming an INVERTED H & S at the top of the run, you are incorrect. This is not a valid formation. Inverted H & S would form at the bottom of a run down, not at the top of a run up which is where a normal H & S forms.
  • #42,929
  • Nov 2, 2008 7:53pm Nov 2, 2008 7:53pm
Is this latest push above 1.28 have the volume to back it? I longed at 1.2730 and am wondering if I should reverse here, but I can't see volume.

Thanks in advance.
What's that smell?
  • #42,930
  • Nov 2, 2008 7:59pm Nov 2, 2008 7:59pm
Quoting jon clogger
Is this latest push above 1.28 have the volume to back it? I longed at 1.2730 and am wondering if I should reverse here, but I can't see volume.

Thanks in advance.
you have 100 pips get out ... it will reverse but will not go under 1.2730, not today because the oil for the moment is up the important news are coming today from usa not from eu so the usd is more risky(ISM Manufacturing PMI is predicted lower ) today and like you said for the moment we have small volumes.
  • #42,931
  • Nov 2, 2008 8:00pm Nov 2, 2008 8:00pm
Is there any guru out there who agrees with me that it is going down today to 1.2700?

Someone Called Chicky
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #42,932
  • Nov 2, 2008 8:04pm Nov 2, 2008 8:04pm
Quoting scuturici
you have 100 pips get out ... it will reverse but will not go under 1.2730, not today because the oil for the moment is up the important news are coming today from usa not from eu so the usd is more risky(ISM Manufacturing PMI is predicted lower ) today and like you said for the moment we have small volumes.

Thank you very much! Altruism at its finest...
What's that smell?
  • #42,933
  • Nov 2, 2008 8:11pm Nov 2, 2008 8:11pm
Quoting knuckledrag
Three is the larger, but five didn't reach the fib line. Nothing works all the time. I'm more interested in your view on the wolf wave I posted showing a target for a C wave

Well
I doubt it is a correct wolfe wave
Wave 1-2 is very short comparing by wave 3-4

But if you use 1H frame instead of 2H, you’ll see a very nice wolfe wave out there.

I define the waves manually, the indicator gave me wrong numeric.
  • #42,934
  • Nov 2, 2008 8:14pm Nov 2, 2008 8:14pm
Quoting traderathome
I don't know about OANDA weekend trading or a miniscule 15 pip gap up, but the long term trend is down. There is a base in the 1.2300 area, and there is a H & S formation that is complete and it is running down. See the attached 1 hour chart with 4 white lines. The top line marks the Head. The second line down marks the tops of the shoulders. And the third line down marks the neckline. The fourth line down is the target. And note that the fib extensions applied to the bollinger band pinch also show a target in the same area at the fourth line!

So one reasonable hypothesis (and that is all it is) is that this is trending down to the previous base at 1.2300 regardless of upside pullbacks on the...

The price has run back up to the third white line, which I contend marks the neckline and give a target in the area of 1.2350 or slightly below. However, if this third line marks the tops of the shoulders, and the neckline is in the area of 1.2670, then we have a much lower target....down in the 1.2100 area.
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  • #42,935
  • Nov 2, 2008 8:15pm Nov 2, 2008 8:15pm
Quoting Chicky
Is there any guru out there who agrees with me that it is going down today to 1.2700?

Someone Called Chicky
What are your fundamental or tehnical support for what you said ?!
  • #42,936
  • Nov 2, 2008 8:22pm Nov 2, 2008 8:22pm
Quoting traderathome
The price has run back up to the third white line, which I contend marks the neckline and give a target in the area of 1.2350 or slightly below. However, if this third line marks the tops of the shoulders, and the neckline is in the area of 1.2670, then we have a much lower target....down in the 1.2100 area.
Not too convinced of that, myself. H&S normally singnify change of trend not continuation.

Look at a 4 hour and notice inverted oct 22 shoulder, oct 27 head, and nov 1st shoulder. That seems more convincing to me, shows reversal, IMO. But I am a little tenative to leap in here either way.
  • #42,937
  • Nov 2, 2008 8:23pm Nov 2, 2008 8:23pm
Quoting scuturici
What are your fundamental or tehnical support for what you said ?!
I tend to look at slopes and trend. Upward slope does not look very strong. Plus if I am correct we are at a shoulder. I am new to this and therefore may be wrong.

Someone Called Chicky
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #42,938
  • Nov 2, 2008 8:24pm Nov 2, 2008 8:24pm
Quoting traderathome
The price has run back up to the third white line, which I contend marks the neckline and give a target in the area of 1.2350 or slightly below. However, if this third line marks the tops of the shoulders, and the neckline is in the area of 1.2670, then we have a much lower target....down in the 1.2100 area.
Not too convinced of that, myself. H&S normally singnify change of trend not continuation.

Look at a 4 hour and notice inverted oct 22 shoulder, oct 27 head, and nov 1st shoulder. That seems more convincing to me, shows reversal, IMO. But I am a little tentative to leap in here either way.

edit actually, this looks extremely bullish on all time frames.
  • #42,939
  • Nov 2, 2008 8:26pm Nov 2, 2008 8:26pm
Been watching this one since last week on the EJ 2hr. A thing of beauty... as long as it doesn't go all Quasimodo on me...
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FUBAR...
  • #42,940
  • Nov 2, 2008 8:33pm Nov 2, 2008 8:33pm
I think over there we go to 1.34
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