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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #1,521
  • Mar 1, 2007 6:36am Mar 1, 2007 6:36am
Quoting Phillip Nel
As you get to know the movement and motion and interaction of the price with the different MA's you will be able to judge the entry on the 1hour as well around other MA's.
I enter that trade on the bounce off the 89SMA solely to support the possible bounce off the 4 hour 21EMA @ 1.3205 with sl @ 1.3178 and first target 1.3230 (closest high) Took 50% gain at 1.3228 and rest at breakeven. There were some scary moments when it tested the 89SMA again on the 1hour.

I looked at the 4hour and saw a possible bounce of the 21EMA. Then I went to the 1hour chart and noticed a bounce off the 89SMA which supports an up movement which is in harmony with the 4hour possible movement. Should the 4hour now give an trend continuation signal, I re-enter the 50% I took profit on and still have the other 50% open.

If you are confused with the 1hour strategy, I want you to ignore it till you have mastered the 4Hour MACD.
Hi guys!

You all probably know this already re: MA's on 1 hour vs. 4 hour...The 89 on 1 hour is very near to the 21 on 4 hour. Reason: 1/4 time frame = 4X's MA. That's how we can see and anticipate the bounce from the 1 hour to the 4 hour timeframe. Hope this was explained clearly and didn't confuse anyone.
  • #1,522
  • Mar 1, 2007 6:43am Mar 1, 2007 6:43am
Quoting Chandra
Can you please reiterate what is that "Climb in MACD" you are refering to?
Can you give the chart time frame and the candle time and the signal name you are talking about so that we can also see it
Thanks.
-Chandra
My apologies for not getting back to you sooner. My realy job had me swamped yesterday. I was referring to yesterday's 12:00GMT candle. MACD was still below 0, but had turned slightly upward, but the 200, 21, and 8MA's were holding resistance above it. Also, there is a triangular pattern forming and the top trendline was holding the prices down, as well.

Hope this helps.
  • #1,523
  • Mar 1, 2007 6:49am Mar 1, 2007 6:49am
Quoting alcastro
I am doing ssomething that is an absolute no-no. But i have to leave for work and will not be able to follow the action.

I am opening a trade in the US/CAD, to the long side
Reasons:
1-My 4HR chart (which is only in its 1st hour) is showing a RT but the last candle is showing signs of morphing into a Trend Continuation.
2- The 1hr chart is showing a RB (very close to zero, so it could also be considered as a bounce from zero line). This would be a long signal confirming a long signal in the 4hr.
3- The current movement is counter-trend and it already bounced from the area inter MA's (8&21)
Why am I saying "don't do this"? Well, I should have waited for the 4 hr candle to draw a positive (green) line in the MACD histogram, and THEN confirm with the 1 hr. I am rushing this trade, and I am only doing it because I am paper-trading (again, another no-no because you should paper-trade as if it was with real money). But I have to leave and i want to see if it develops the way I think it will.

so: in @1.1688
s/l: 1.1655 (below 21MA)
t/p: 1.1730 (just below the yesterday high)

I hope all this no-no won't get me banned from this excellent forum, even though I know that Phillips will be roaring with huge dissapointment!!!
Hi Alcastro,

I think that your trade is going to work because the pattern you describe is exactly what happened yesterday (when I went short based on developing RT and didn't confirm w/1Hour).

The pair closed 2 days in a row above the downtrend line and may be back on a upward move. Again I don't know how this pair moves, but I do think more is in your favor based on yesterday's MACD and price movement and what you describe above.
  • #1,524
  • Mar 1, 2007 6:53am Mar 1, 2007 6:53am
Quoting alcastro
I am doing ssomething that is an absolute no-no. But i have to leave for work and will not be able to follow the action.

I am opening a trade in the US/CAD, to the long side
Reasons:
1-My 4HR chart (which is only in its 1st hour) is showing a RT but the last candle is showing signs of morphing into a Trend Continuation.
2- The 1hr chart is showing a RB (very close to zero, so it could also be considered as a bounce from zero line). This would be a long signal confirming a long signal in the 4hr.
3- The current movement is counter-trend and it already bounced from the area inter MA's (8&21)
Why am I saying "don't do this"? Well, I should have waited for the 4 hr candle to draw a positive (green) line in the MACD histogram, and THEN confirm with the 1 hr. I am rushing this trade, and I am only doing it because I am paper-trading (again, another no-no because you should paper-trade as if it was with real money). But I have to leave and i want to see if it develops the way I think it will.

so: in @1.1688
s/l: 1.1655 (below 21MA)
t/p: 1.1730 (just below the yesterday high)

I hope all this no-no won't get me banned from this excellent forum, even though I know that Phillips will be roaring with huge dissapointment!!!
Marvelous! Just tell me where the flea market is you obtained this crystall ball,
  • #1,525
  • Mar 1, 2007 6:54am Mar 1, 2007 6:54am
TamKras,

I see you on the forum....aren't you on vacation???? talk about workaholic!

Thanks for the beautiful explaination of the nesting dolls and the chart today illustrating. You have a great eye for patterns! Really cool!!!!!

Your Piggy's not hungry...go play
  • #1,526
  • Edited 9:41am Mar 1, 2007 6:59am | Edited 9:41am
after my first 2 trades (EUR$) being losses and Phillip advice not the use the 4h system on the 1h charts (too many false signals), I've decided to stay with the 4h charts.

Willem, it's a minor detail, but as I wrote before I don't trade EUR/USD on H1 charts. As to switching to the shorter than H4 time frames - I did this exactly for the same reason you did - too much losses (on H4). During this week I made about 180 pips on ***/JPY H1 signals, while a single H4 signal to trade long (RB) was false. I was trading on A, B, C and still going short since D arrow. There was no arrow at C point because MACD level was less than H1ThresholdLevel=0.0005, but a small RB is obvious. Six of seven (85.7%) signals were true (F was false). I will not provide another screenshot that shows what was my profit from D point to current time, because people may consider it as a boast. The secret is in the flexible use of any system, in applying a right tool at right time. IMHO H4 signal(s) are unsuitable for current market I'm trading now, though I consider the Phillip's H4 MACD theory as one of the best for pratical trading.
Probably, you trust too much to those arrows - they were added just for reference and depend much on indicator adjustment that has to be done for every pair individually. Use a common sense and accumulate the experience.
http://forexbarometer.com/graph/usd-jpy-070301.gif
P.S. It seems now the time for H4-ers to enter the game. Another hill for USD, EUR, GBP/JPY is in progress. As to me I've closed my shorts on those currencies and finish my trading week.
Good luck to all of you. Your ideas brought to me the hope and inspiration and this time I won.
Ben
  • #1,527
  • Mar 1, 2007 7:09am Mar 1, 2007 7:09am
Quoting pips4uandme
TamKras,

I see you on the forum....aren't you on vacation???? talk about workaholic!

Thanks for the beautiful explaination of the nesting dolls and the chart today illustrating. You have a great eye for patterns! Really cool!!!!!

Your Piggy's not hungry...go play
I am! And my computer is still a taboo. I do not trade for the risk of losing it completely under the sea...
  • #1,528
  • Mar 1, 2007 8:25am Mar 1, 2007 8:25am
Well, I am at my office and opened a forex chart just to see how am I doing with my reckless trade...and the US/CAD went my way!!!
It did hit my limit @ 1.1730 after entering @ 1.1688. So that is +42 pips. But I am not going to fool myself. Have i been trading with real money I would not have entered the trade this early, but I would have waited for confirmation. So I am not going to add those 42 pips to my bank.

But Pips, you were right. The CAD repeated the move!!

Tamkras, don't worry, there are plenty of crystal balls at the flea market where i acquired mine. I will save one for you when you are back from your vacations!!!
  • #1,529
  • Mar 1, 2007 8:59am Mar 1, 2007 8:59am
Quoting alcastro
Well, I am at my office and opened a forex chart just to see how am I doing with my reckless trade...and the US/CAD went my way!!!
It did hit my limit @ 1.1730 after entering @ 1.1688. So that is +42 pips.
Hi everybody

I'm new to this forum and just watched the discussion for a few weeks. But this brings me to a question.
Phillip, did you ever try to use other signals than the tc signal in the 1hour chart for your early entry technique? I mean in this example it seemed to work. Was is just luck or are other macd signals valid for your technique, too?
  • #1,530
  • Mar 1, 2007 9:07am Mar 1, 2007 9:07am
Would anyone mind showing me where their trendlines are drawn on the CAD. Just curious.

thanks.
  • #1,531
  • Mar 1, 2007 9:19am Mar 1, 2007 9:19am
Quoting Benf
after my first 2 trades (EUR$) being losses and Phillip advice not the use the 4h system on the 1h charts (too many false signals), I've decided to stay with the 4h charts.

Willem, it's a minor detail, but as I wrote before I don't trade EUR/USD on H1 charts. As to switching to the shorter than H4 time frames - I did this exactly for the same reason you did - too much losses (on H4). During this week I made about 180 pips on ***/JPY H1 signals, while a single H4 signal to trade long (RB) was false. I was trading on A, B, C and still going short since D arrow. There was no arrow at C point because MACD level was less than H1ThresholdLevel=0.0005, but a small RB is obvious. Six of seven (85.7%) signals were true (F was false). I will not provide another screenshot that shows what was my profit from D point to current time, because people may consider it as a boast. The secret is in the flexible use of any system, in applying a right tool at right time. IMHO H4 signal(s) are unsuitable for current market I'm trading now, though I consider the Phillip's H4 MACD theory as one of the best for pratical trading.
Probably, you trust too much to those arrows - they were added just for reference and depend on indicator adjustment that has top be done for every pair individually. Use a common sense and accumulate the experience.
http://forexbarometer.com/graph/usd-jpy-070301.gif
P.S. It seems now the time for H4-ers to enter the game. Another hill for USD, EUR, GBP/JPY is in progress. As to me I've closed my shorts on those currencies and finish my trading week.
Good luck to all of you. Your ideas brought to me the hope and inspiration and this time I won.
Hi BenF

Tx for the reply. I was in the same situation - to eager to trade and I couldn't wait for the 4h candles. No patience - just want to get on the action. I was also not sure about all the MACD formations.

Yes, I think I was also just following the arrows without considering any other market conditions. Great advice from you not to just follow the arrows. One needs to look at other factors like the current market conditions.

I am sure the 1h charts are working for you - I'll try it at a later stage.


Willem
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #1,532
  • Mar 1, 2007 9:29am Mar 1, 2007 9:29am
this is a suggestion of trend line from me. Any other suggestion?
Attached Image
  • #1,533
  • Mar 1, 2007 9:51am Mar 1, 2007 9:51am
Quoting pips4uandme
TamKras,

I see you on the forum....aren't you on vacation???? talk about workaholic!

Thanks for the beautiful explaination of the nesting dolls and the chart today illustrating. You have a great eye for patterns! Really cool!!!!!

Your Piggy's not hungry...go play
Isn't it beautiful to see how the nesting dolls started to jump out of euro? I am always fascinated with this pattern. I promised not to trade this week but I wanted to give all heads-up - hopefully some shrewd traders jumped in. I will post a chart about the same pattern for the recent usd/jpy price action. Yours, Tamkras.
  • #1,534
  • Mar 1, 2007 9:56am Mar 1, 2007 9:56am
Quoting alcastro
Well, I am at my office and opened a forex chart just to see how am I doing with my reckless trade...and the US/CAD went my way!!!
It did hit my limit @ 1.1730 after entering @ 1.1688. So that is +42 pips. But I am not going to fool myself. Have i been trading with real money I would not have entered the trade this early, but I would have waited for confirmation. So I am not going to add those 42 pips to my bank.

But Pips, you were right. The CAD repeated the move!!

Tamkras, don't worry, there are plenty of crystal balls at the flea market where i acquired mine. I will save one for you when you are back from your vacations!!!
When I posted my congrats the price did not reach your TP but I was so sure about your excellent trading plan that I could not stay aside. Could not be done better, Alcastro! I want to acquire a crystal ball for my piggy, too.
  • #1,535
  • Mar 1, 2007 10:04am Mar 1, 2007 10:04am
Some info
Attached Image
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip 1Hour Strategy 2.zip   820 KB | 5,846 downloads
  • #1,536
  • Mar 1, 2007 10:09am Mar 1, 2007 10:09am
Ben this is a new issue.

GBPUSD -4Hr chart.
2007-03-01 4:00 Candle and 8:00 Candle (all times in GMT)

I had a ZB long on 4:00 candle and when the next bar completed, the ZB long arrow disappeared and a new ZB short arrow appeared on the 8:00 candle.
Is it possible for the signal on 4:00 candle to disappear?
Thanks.
-Chandra
  • #1,537
  • Edited 10:27am Mar 1, 2007 10:10am | Edited 10:27am
Enter 1.9610 Listen to MP3 for explanation on post 1535
S/L 1.9645
Partial profit 1.9585
Rest manual. Will watch the 89SMA
Attached Image
  • #1,538
  • Mar 1, 2007 10:18am Mar 1, 2007 10:18am
Quoting alcastro
Hi Tamkras,

good to see you around. I hope you are enjoying a relaxed vacation!!!.
Thanks for this chart. I tried to llok back in thr thread for your stacking pattern notes but didn't find. Do you mind telling me in which post # can I find it?

Thanks
P. 73, post 1087. This is what I posted when Tw and I went into this deal together:

"I am very much interested, Tw. I am with you on this deal. God bless us! My contribution is 2 lots - I like the hammer and all your fib analysis. What I also like about it is that the hammer wanted to go through the previous mountain and retraced. I've seen these setups many times. Let's go for it! What do we risk, anyway? My first take-profit is @ 121.06 - you might outscore but let's see. I did not put any TP for the second lot but I am hoping for 120.65. Good luck. Yours, Tamkras."
  • #1,539
  • Mar 1, 2007 10:57am Mar 1, 2007 10:57am
Quoting tamkras
P. 73, post 1087. This is what I posted when Tw and I went into this deal together:

"I am very much interested, Tw. I am with you on this deal. God bless us! My contribution is 2 lots - I like the hammer and all your fib analysis. What I also like about it is that the hammer wanted to go through the previous mountain and retraced. I've seen these setups many times. Let's go for it! What do we risk, anyway? My first take-profit is @ 121.06 - you might outscore but let's see. I did not put any TP for the second lot but I am hoping for 120.65. Good luck. Yours, Tamkras."
Thanks
  • #1,540
  • Mar 1, 2007 11:03am Mar 1, 2007 11:03am
Quoting Golfer
I did go short (demo) on EUR/US @ 05:20 GMT (this morning), entry 1.3223, SL 1.3243, TP 1.3200. The 21EMA is my first target. I know it is a counter trade and also a high risk trade (in a uptrend with head & shoulder formation). Lets see what happens. That is why I do use a demo account to learn from positve trades and failures.

I am not a great supporter on paper trading - rather do the actual trading on a demo account to get the feel for the market.

Willem
Took first half of profit @1.3202 at 15H03 GMT (21EMA). Moved stop loss to breakeven. Aim for 89MA now but I am not sure it will get there?

Any opinions?

Willemmmmmmmmmmm
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
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