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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #1,501
  • Feb 28, 2007 7:29pm Feb 28, 2007 7:29pm
Quoting jarroo
On the 1hr MACD was trending up, along with the 4hr MACD (T.C.), along with the trend. Cool Stuff.
I realize that the 1hr MACD did not give a Phillip signal (T.C., R.B., etc.), but it was trending up so that was good enough for me. Those signals are more important to be inplace on the 4 hr. IMO. I could be wrong, I'm still learning.

I had a S/R at 3324 (Monthly open). I use Monthly, Weekly, Daily highs/lows and some times their open/close . Also, 30 pips sounded like a nice round number too.

see charts.
2nd chart sould read "bounce 21 ema 4 hour"

Jim
You did a very good analysis, your unique approach is far from Phillip's strategy that we all trying to learn. That is why your results were confusing to me, especially you placed the result of such a sophisticated strategy with minimum explination.

As Phillip's strategy itself is handful for us, we are not able to absorb any new approach,it becomes too much. we rather bite only what we can chew.

I really appreciate your helping us by showing the charts. There is lot to learn in your approach and we are confined ourselves to digest what we have on our hand.
Thanks a lot for your unique approach. It is great.
-Chandra.
  • #1,502
  • Feb 28, 2007 7:56pm Feb 28, 2007 7:56pm
Quoting Chandra
You did a very good analysis, your unique approach is far from Phillip's strategy that we all trying to learn. That is why your results were confusing to me, especially you placed the result of such a sophisticated strategy with minimum explination.

As Phillip's strategy itself is handful for us, we are not able to absorb any new approach,it becomes too much. we rather bite only what we can chew.

I really appreciate your helping us by showing the charts. There is lot to learn in your approach and we are confined ourselves to digest what we have on our hand.
Thanks a lot for your unique approach. It is great.
-Chandra.
I'm using the same Phillip 4 hour Strategy. I'm just aware of other S/R levels.
Just keeping it simple like Phillip says.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #1,503
  • Feb 28, 2007 9:13pm Feb 28, 2007 9:13pm
Is somebody seeing a "bounce from zero" in the 4hr. GBP/US? The 1 hr is showing a continuation trend from a RT, but it all might change and the bars could show a Trend continuation to the long side. I will wait and see if that happens.

Any comments?
  • #1,504
  • Feb 28, 2007 9:28pm Feb 28, 2007 9:28pm
eurusd 4hr MACD shows classic Phil head and shoulders.
  • #1,505
  • Feb 28, 2007 9:35pm Feb 28, 2007 9:35pm
Quoting smnitro1
eurusd 4hr MACD shows classic Phil head and shoulders.
Smnitro, I saw it too. My concern: it is counter-trend. TargetProfit is too close and S/L too fara way. R:R <1. Do you agree?
  • #1,506
  • Feb 28, 2007 10:21pm Feb 28, 2007 10:21pm
Quoting alcastro
Smnitro, I saw it too. My concern: it is counter-trend. TargetProfit is too close and S/L too fara way. R:R <1. Do you agree?
Absolutley..I just get a kick out of watching the patterns develope.
I actually went long on the bounce off of the 21.
  • #1,507
  • Feb 28, 2007 10:34pm Feb 28, 2007 10:34pm
Quoting smnitro1
Absolutley..I just get a kick out of watching the patterns develope.
I actually went long on the bounce off of the 21.
Well..my EUR/US chart has not shown a long MACD pattern. Not in the 4hr or the 1 hr. But I am using GMT's MT4 with candles closing at GMT +1
  • #1,508
  • Feb 28, 2007 11:27pm Feb 28, 2007 11:27pm
Quoting alcastro
Well..my EUR/US chart has not shown a long MACD pattern. Not in the 4hr or the 1 hr. But I am using GMT's MT4 with candles closing at GMT +1
Hi Alcastro, I just was able to cut out some minutes to have a look at the current eur/usd pair and I am supportive of your view. To me, the pair is leaning towards bearish test of the famous moving averages. I probably have an insatiable appetite for patterns and wanted to contribute to your analysis. Looks like MACD is developing H/S and should this candle turns red at the close is this not a short signal per MACD strategy? Earlier I posted some thoughts about top stacking pattern - it's just so funny if the same story repeats with eur/usd. I do not trade until next week but I fight the temptation. See the chart. Yours, Tamkras.
Attached Image
  • #1,509
  • Feb 28, 2007 11:51pm Feb 28, 2007 11:51pm
Quoting alcastro
Well..my EUR/US chart has not shown a long MACD pattern. Not in the 4hr or the 1 hr. But I am using GMT's MT4 with candles closing at GMT +1
I did go short (demo) on EUR/US @ 05:20 GMT (this morning), entry 1.3223, SL 1.3243, TP 1.3200. The 21EMA is my first target. I know it is a counter trade and also a high risk trade (in a uptrend with head & shoulder formation). Lets see what happens. That is why I do use a demo account to learn from positve trades and failures.

I am not a great supporter on paper trading - rather do the actual trading on a demo account to get the feel for the market.

Willem
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #1,510
  • Mar 1, 2007 1:15am Mar 1, 2007 1:15am
Quoting jarroo
This is just what I being doing. I do not take counter trend trades until I develop a better feel and understanding of this system. (Which I enjoy.)

I follow the 89 ema trend, look for entry signal on MACD and then S/R for exits and stops. (James16 price action, of cousre is always present in my mind.) These are higher probability trade in my veiw.

When I get better at this, I'll start implementing countertrend trades.

Just my thoughts,

Jim
An interesting point about not taking counter trend trades (at least for me):

In Philip's excellent PDF "4 hour MACD Forex Strategy" page 3, Fig. 3 - where he illustrates 18 trades. 13 were right and 5 were wrong. Guess how many of the wrong trades were counter trend trades? 4 out of the 5 were counter trend trades.
Now some of the right trades were counter trend trades but they were preformed by the Master = Phillip. I'm just showing that as someone new to this strategy (me) should only take high probablity trades, which are with the trend = 89 sma.

Thanks again Phillip,

Jim

Note: Notice the four wrong counter trend trades (page 3, Fig 3) happen when the trend (89 sma) was clearly defined, meaning a distinct slope. While some of the right counter trend trades, the trend (89 sma) was flat.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #1,511
  • Mar 1, 2007 4:03am Mar 1, 2007 4:03am
just entered short on GBP/USD @ 1.9620
S/L @ 1.9685 (slightly above my I actual prediction)
T/P @ 1.9555 (so that R:R was OK, also MA89)
MACD has given a zero pull back signal, which is considered to be a pretty strong move.
Besides the news in an hour are supposed to play against GBP.
I will watch and see how the events turn out after the news are released..
Any comments on my position?
  • #1,512
  • Mar 1, 2007 4:12am Mar 1, 2007 4:12am
Quoting tamkras
Hi Alcastro, I just was able to cut out some minutes to have a look at the current eur/usd pair and I am supportive of your view. To me, the pair is leaning towards bearish test of the famous moving averages. I probably have an insatiable appetite for patterns and wanted to contribute to your analysis. Looks like MACD is developing H/S and should this candle turns red at the close is this not a short signal per MACD strategy? Earlier I posted some thoughts about top stacking pattern - it's just so funny if the same story repeats with eur/usd. I do not trade until next week but I fight the temptation. See the chart. Yours, Tamkras.
Hi Tamkras,

good to see you around. I hope you are enjoying a relaxed vacation!!!.
Thanks for this chart. I tried to llok back in thr thread for your stacking pattern notes but didn't find. Do you mind telling me in which post # can I find it?

Thanks
  • #1,513
  • Edited 5:47am Mar 1, 2007 4:34am | Edited 5:47am
Quoting Pipsi cola
just entered short on GBP/USD @ 1.9620
S/L @ 1.9685 (slightly above my I actual prediction)
T/P @ 1.9555 (so that R:R was OK, also MA89)
MACD has given a zero pull back signal, which is considered to be a pretty strong move.
Besides the news in an hour are supposed to play against GBP.
I will watch and see how the events turn out after the news are released..
Any comments on my position?
Hi PIPSI, these are my comments (from a non-expert so take them with a grain of salt):
1-You are trading a counter-trend. As I understand it, in counter-trends the price tends to go back to somewhere between 21 MA and 8 MA and bounce back. Currently both MA's are very close to each other and very close to your entry point (21MA is at 1.9612). Only 8 pips away.
2-By your comments I think that you are forcing both your S/L and T/P so that they will fit your R:R. I see a resistance level around 9665 (so that would be a stop loss, and it would be at -45 pips from your entry). Your T/P is at 1.9555, that is 30 pips, so your R;R would be <1. To me a no trade. (oops!!! I was looking at another number when calculating your T/P. Your actual profit based on your T/P would be 65. So R;R would be fine. BUT as I said in #1, based on Phillip's, in a counter trend price tends to bounce back from 21MA, and in this case it went below this MA in the previous candle and already bounced)
3-But that is the way I am looking at it based on what i see in my chart. And as I told you, I am a far call from being an expert...or even a reliable "forexer".
  • #1,514
  • Mar 1, 2007 5:43am Mar 1, 2007 5:43am
thanks for the feedback alcastro!
you are absolutely right, my trade was a "little" forced. this is a beautiful example of how emotions come into play and ruin the fun of the game. MACD has turned around now and that is telling me to close my position. I should have conducted a deeper analysis before entering the market. Let's stick to the system and wait for a better setup to come.
  • #1,515
  • Mar 1, 2007 5:47am Mar 1, 2007 5:47am
Head and shoulder formed for this pair. First profit would be 21EMA. R.R > 1 if stoploss set to 30. Should we go for this pair?

Hope can give me some suggestion. Thanks
  • #1,516
  • Mar 1, 2007 6:07am Mar 1, 2007 6:07am
I would not be so hasty, especially with all this news coming out. Just my thinking on this.

Jim
  • #1,517
  • Mar 1, 2007 6:13am Mar 1, 2007 6:13am
I am doing ssomething that is an absolute no-no. But i have to leave for work and will not be able to follow the action.

I am opening a trade in the US/CAD, to the long side
Reasons:
1-My 4HR chart (which is only in its 1st hour) is showing a RT but the last candle is showing signs of morphing into a Trend Continuation.
2- The 1hr chart is showing a RB (very close to zero, so it could also be considered as a bounce from zero line). This would be a long signal confirming a long signal in the 4hr.
3- The current movement is counter-trend and it already bounced from the area inter MA's (8&21)
Why am I saying "don't do this"? Well, I should have waited for the 4 hr candle to draw a positive (green) line in the MACD histogram, and THEN confirm with the 1 hr. I am rushing this trade, and I am only doing it because I am paper-trading (again, another no-no because you should paper-trade as if it was with real money). But I have to leave and i want to see if it develops the way I think it will.

so: in @1.1688
s/l: 1.1655 (below 21MA)
t/p: 1.1730 (just below the yesterday high)

I hope all this no-no won't get me banned from this excellent forum, even though I know that Phillips will be roaring with huge dissapointment!!!
  • #1,518
  • Mar 1, 2007 6:22am Mar 1, 2007 6:22am
Quoting comeinvest
Head and shoulder formed for this pair. First profit would be 21EMA. R.R > 1 if stoploss set to 30. Should we go for this pair?

Hope can give me some suggestion. Thanks
Hi Comeinvest!


My chart suggests that we are close to possible entry , but not sure if risk is worth it. This is what I see:

Price needs to close above recent downtrend resistance on 4 hour chart (recent move, not total move)(1.2196).

Stop should be lower than 1.2177, perfer < 1.2142

We have some resistance points to overcome, primarily the 21 EMA (1.2231)
Price is sitting just above 8 EMA now, and the pair has been on a wicked downtrend and has bounced at this point.

The MACD signal does look good on my chart and does suggest an entry if your r:r justifies. I thought about taking the trade and decided my r:r wasn't good enough. Will wait to see what price does around the 21 or for a bounce off the 8 and a break of minor support at 1.2180 w/TC for a short.
  • #1,519
  • Mar 1, 2007 6:25am Mar 1, 2007 6:25am
Quoting alcastro
You were getting spoiled with that 100% profitable record!!!!
LOL!!!! You are sooooooo right!!!!!!!!

Thanks for the laugh today I'm ready to get spoiled again in March!!!!

Happy trading!!!!!
  • #1,520
  • Mar 1, 2007 6:27am Mar 1, 2007 6:27am
Quoting jarroo
EURUSD Trade.

1Hr - bounce off the 89 sma.
4Hr - bounce off the 21 ema.
MACD confirmation on both 1hr and 4hr.
With the trend (price above the 89 sma on the 4 hr.)

Entered at 1.3188.
Exited at 1.3218.

30 pips.

Jim
Nice job!!!
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