EURUSD | Page 2141 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Similar Threads

MT4: how to change "EURUSD" to "#EURUSD"? 3 replies

Re: EurUsd short term 15 replies

did oanda just drop its spread for eurusd to 1 pip? 11 replies

EA for multiple lot limit order for EURUSD 0 replies

NFP nice bump up on EURUSD 2 replies

Attachments: EURUSD
Exit Attachments

EURUSD

  • #42,801
  • Oct 30, 2008 10:44pm Oct 30, 2008 10:44pm
Quoting Chicky
Something very strange going on since 19:00 hours ET Oct 30, 2008. It is not just EUR/USD alone, but seems like the whole market, rather, all markets are upto something - that may not be good for many of us.
Sorry. I kicked the plug. It won"t happen again.

  • #42,802
  • Oct 30, 2008 10:46pm Oct 30, 2008 10:46pm
Quoting Kyen
Wow I cant believe there really wasn't a huge spike after the news.. I guess it wasn't what the market expected but its still a cut though.. any ideas?
i can tell you have limited fundamental knowledge....not that i am much better. the way i see it is you got 4 options.

1)ignore the news as these days they rarely apply, the overall direction is dollar strength with periods of retracements but your technical analysis takes care of that
2)start by reading some of ak4x posts, he posts alot of fundamental key points that will blow your mind....great starting point to understand why the markets do what they do...its free too so no subscription required
3)look at scheduled news releases in the forexfactory main page and whenever you see that news will come out of relative importance, find out more info about that particular news.
4)over time if you are still trading forex youll pick up things without realizing...whether you watched bloomberg or read reuters or whatever...it takes time my friend and experience is not gained overnight
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #42,803
  • Oct 30, 2008 10:57pm Oct 30, 2008 10:57pm
Quoting psiholog
i can tell you have limited fundamental knowledge....not that i am much better. the way i see it is you got 4 options.

1)ignore the news as these days they rarely apply, the overall direction is dollar strength with periods of retracements but your technical analysis takes care of that
2)start by reading some of ak4x posts, he posts alot of fundamental key points that will blow your mind....great starting point to understand why the markets do what they do...its free too so no subscription required
3)look at scheduled news releases in the forexfactory main page and whenever you see that news will come out of relative importance, find out more info about that particular news.
4)over time if...

Great recommendations! If I may, I'd like to add that it is important to have a "heads up" on announcements.....know when they are going to happen. You don't really need to know what they might say, because Central Bank traders and hedge fund traders....who move the market....already know what they are going to do at the time of the announcement, no matter what it contains. You only need to know when they are happening....so you can be out of trades, let the dust fly and then settle, and then resume trading later. Just my opinion.
  • #42,804
  • Oct 30, 2008 11:00pm Oct 30, 2008 11:00pm
Quoting traderathome
Great recommendations! If I may, I'd like to add that it is important to have a \"heads up\" on announcements.....know when they are going to happen. You don't really need to know what they might say, because Central Bank traders and hedge fund traders....who move the market....already know what they are going to do at the time of the announcement, no matter what it contains. You only need to know when they are happening....so you can be out of trades, let the dust fly and then settle, and then resume trading later. Just my opinion.
exactly and i forgot to mention the most important point. like suntrader says in his profile...its not really the news that counts...its the reaction to the news. those who have positions open in expectation of news to be as expected are taking a gamble but thats a method of trading in itself and some have mastered it
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #42,805
  • Oct 30, 2008 11:10pm Oct 30, 2008 11:10pm
Quoting psiholog
exactly and i forgot to mention the most important point. like suntrader says in his profile...its not really the news that counts...its the reaction to the news. those who have positions open in expectation of news to be as expected are taking a gamble but thats a method of trading in itself and some have mastered it

"...and some have mastered it." I seriously doubt that. Guessing what Central Bank and hedge fund traders are going to do at announcements is just THAT, a GUESS! And that is something that cannot be mastered. The same kind of news, but at different times, can be met with entirely opposite manipulations by these people! Now, maybe these "masters" are good at scalping in a rapid pip movement environment. But then, it is not the announcements they are mastering. They are simply exercising their skill at a good time for them to trade....doesn't matter what direction it goes, or if it goes in both!

Unfortunately, this is not good trading environs for most of us. Our brokers will meet our frantic orders to enter and exit with a perponderence of "Please Wait", or "Invalid Quote", etc.......just enough while pips are moving fast, to totally destroy any chance of good trading.

IMHO, just stay away until the dust settles and then get back in when your orders are less likely to be screwed around with.
  • #42,806
  • Oct 30, 2008 11:16pm Oct 30, 2008 11:16pm
Quoting traderathome
\"...and some have mastered it.\" I seriously doubt that. Guessing what Central Bank and hedge fund traders are going to do at announcements is just THAT, a GUESS! And that is something that cannot be mastered. The same kind of news, but at different times, can be met with entirely opposite manipulations by these people! Now, maybe these \"masters\" are good at scalping in a rapid pip movement environment. But then, it is not the announcements they are mastering. They are simply exercising their skill at a good time for them to trade....doesn't matter what direction it goes, or if it goes in both!

Unfortunately, this is not good trading environs for most of us. Our brokers will meet our frantic...
from what i understand this is how some do it. lets say news is expected to be released at a given time. these people who play the news have trigger orders in both directions. lets say 20 or 30pips from current price and stop loss on the opposite side. it goes up 20-30pips thats a buy...sell on other side. thats the generic explanation but its much more complicated and believe it or not...there are some who do only that...personally im not interested as its only a gamble to me
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #42,807
  • Oct 30, 2008 11:22pm Oct 30, 2008 11:22pm
Quoting psiholog
from what i understand this is how some do it. lets say news is expected to be released at a given time. these people who play the news have trigger orders in both directions. lets say 20 or 30pips from current price and stop loss on the opposite side. it goes up 20-30pips thats a buy...sell on other side. thats the generic explanation but its much more complicated and believe it or not...there are some who do only that...personally im not interested as its only a gamble to me
All orders in forex are MARKET orders, not LIMIT orders. Even a Stop Loss order is a MARKET order! The S/L price acts as a LIMIT trigger, activating the order to get out AT THE MARKET. So, in a fast pip moving enviroment, the pip movement between the S/L "activation" price, and the actual market price at which the trade is closed CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL....!!!!!!!!!!!! People who say they are trading this way, IMHO, are either liars, fools, or gamblers.
  • #42,808
  • Oct 30, 2008 11:25pm Oct 30, 2008 11:25pm
Quoting traderathome
All orders in forex are MARKET orders, not LIMIT orders. Even a Stop Loss order is a MARKET order! The S/L price acts as a LIMIT trigger, activating the order to get out AT THE MARKET. So, in a fast pip moving enviroment, the pip movement between the S/L \"activation\" price, and the actual market price at which the trade is closed CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL....!!!!!!!!!!!! People who say they are trading this way, IMHO, are either liars, fools, or gamblers.
well i heard it at the only forex expo i ever went to...first time i heard of forex. it stuck with me though because of the odd method but if it was a topic of discussion there....well they are not liars but fools and gamblers..cant argue with that

on another note...how about that eur/usd...the h&s still intact and underway
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #42,809
  • Oct 30, 2008 11:37pm Oct 30, 2008 11:37pm
Quoting psiholog
well i heard it at the only forex expo i ever went to...first time i heard of forex. it stuck with me though because of the odd method but if it was a topic of discussion there....well they are not liars but fools and gamblers..cant argue with that

on another note...how about that eur/usd...the h&s still intact and underway
What timeframe chart are you referring to? The 4 hour chart? If so, yes, possibly an inverted H & S is forming the right shoulder now. Also, it could be forming the base of a Cup & Handle formation, with the right upside of the cup to come, and then the handle (ranging) and then a 600 pip move up. A Cup & Handle often comes after a run (the recent run up on the 4 hour chart) and dips the price back down 25% - 62% in a bowl shaped pullback and recovery. Either way, and based on either formation completing, we may be in for a good upside move afterwards.
  • #42,810
  • Oct 30, 2008 11:39pm Oct 30, 2008 11:39pm
61.8% may prove as support for now ...it doubles as support 2(daily pivots)...the midwall of this whole downtrend is there as well. if we break that...well the lower wall may get tapped and that puts us closer to support 3...1.2500...not a bad number to reach...perfectly logical..in any case to be seen

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: current.gif Size: 41 KB
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #42,811
  • Oct 30, 2008 11:41pm Oct 30, 2008 11:41pm
Quoting traderathome
What timeframe chart are you referring to? The 4 hour chart? If so, yes, possibly an inverted H & S is forming the right shoulder now. Also, it could be forming the base of a Cup & Handle formation, with the right upside of the cup to come, and then the handle (ranging) and then a 600 pip move up. A Cup & Handle often comes after a run (the recent run up on the 4 hour chart) and dips the price back down 25% - 62% in a bowl shaped pullback and recovery. Either way, and based on either formation completing, we may be in for a good upside move afterwards.
im not looking at the 4h chart...even though it could be inverted h&s too...i choose to ignore it as the timeframe is too large. this weeks retracement was directly associated to the feds cutting rates and now the boj. now that is done the only thing that matters is what comes next week...the ecb cutting rates. the head and shoulder i reffer to has shoulderline at pivot point and neckline (orange line). odd that you havent seen me posting about it as i talked about it since i noticed it 13 hours ago or longer

btw...i say timeframe too large because markets are highly unpredictable nowadays..pa is dictated daily in a matter that would take days or weeks in a normal market...looking too far back is pointless...thats just my opinion
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #42,812
  • Oct 30, 2008 11:51pm Oct 30, 2008 11:51pm
Quoting psiholog
im not looking at the 4h chart...even though it could be inverted h&s too...i choose to ignore it as the timeframe is too large. this weeks retracement was directly associated to the feds cutting rates and now the boj. now that is done the only thing that matters is what comes next week...the ecb cutting rates. the head and shoulder i reffer to has shoulderline at pivot point and neckline (orange line). odd that you havent seen me posting about it as i talked about it since i noticed it 13 hours ago or longer

btw...i say timeframe too large because markets are highly unpredictable nowadays..pa is dictated daily in a matter that would take days or weeks in a normal market...looking too far back...

I have been at the EJ for several days. But I do now see what you are referring to using the 1 hour chart. Nice job on your part!
  • #42,813
  • Oct 30, 2008 11:58pm Oct 30, 2008 11:58pm
This is a sort of followup chart to the first "turn" chart along with some pre and post coffee ponderings (play jays soundbite here for drama) I posted at http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=42547

This chart below shows where we began to turn down again on the 1hr from the big retrace, and imo will eventually reenter the downtrend proper, altho it almost certainly won't be a straight line what with all the stuff flying a'rd these days. I remain dolllar bullish not becuz it's necessarily stronger but becuz it's less weak. Considering that perspective to some degree could do wonders for some of you.

I've watched and listened to some of you talk yourself out of good trades simply becuz of your inability to see the dollar as strong. I agree, it's not strong, it's less weak. You don't, won't or can't see that, so you either stay out of a good trade or worse, trade the wrong way even tho in hindsight your own charts said otherwise...

I went thru a season last year sometime where I figure it took me from 3-5 weeks to fully morph from a dollar bear to dollar bull. The key was simply looking at it differently. The dollar didn't really change any, I did. Not strong, less weak. My trading improved significantly as a result. Just my 1.618 pips..

Why does the news not matter anymore for more than few minutes? If it's good, we don't believe it and will wait for the revision. If it's bad, how is that news, and how much WORSE would it be if we REALLY knew the whole story, cuz we just KNOW they're not telling us everything... I'm fairly convinced in my own mind that alot of the PA we see a'rd news releases anymore is simply black box trading. Can't prove it and wouldn't argue it, but I do trade it that way.

Anyway, the chart... I have 3 steps to confirm my short term trend change. There was one signal not shown (some non Mt4 MA crossings) at the shaded circle on the candle at a'rd 3220, and then the 2 indicators at the bottom had to cross. One is the Slow_k which is a stochastic and the other a Pdi/Mdi thingy. I don't trade off this chart so much altho I could. It's more of a reference chart to help keep me honest and in the trends.

Scaling out some more here on those shorts earlier. Took another 40% total off each trade leaving 30% running. The last scale out was a'rd 420 pips GY and 460 pips EJ. Leaving +20 pips or so as a SL, and breaking out the merlot while watching Big Ben ring the bell here in a minute.

Just cracked 500 pips each trade in between paragraphs...

Remember the post last week where I discussed the word "relentless." The world is shifting yet again.

Careful trades all or not at all...
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #42,814
  • Oct 31, 2008 1:16am Oct 31, 2008 1:16am
Staying aside of fundamentals and looking only at TA, whould this be possible / probable? in what timescale?

Fib taken from 1.4865-1.2328 (21stSept-14thOct)

Target of 1.0762...???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd2.JPG Size: 246 KB
  • #42,815
  • Oct 31, 2008 1:16am Oct 31, 2008 1:16am
Quoting psiholog
markets are highly unpredictable nowadays..pa is dictated daily ...looking too far back is pointless...thats just my opinion
I'd rather be pointless than pintless, but that's just the Guiness talkin...

In any event, since it's pointless and I'm pinted up, here's a weekly chart. You can see that this current candle has something to say to us. Under any other circumstances, technically speaking, I'd likely be looking at longs well into the next decade probably...

What to do... Already pierced that historic (and somewhat arbitrary) pink dotted line at 2500. I looked at the weekly and daily closes from back in the day and just eyeballed it all at 25 even, nice round number, easy to remember in my sodden state. If someone disagrees, PM me and I'll change it, no worries.

Still waiting on tomorrows close... if it closes bearish below 2560ish... yikes! World not getting healthier by next week or month anyway...

Guess I better find another fib extension to tack on... 179% extension at 2185 for starters. So many fibs, so few pints.

If I'm wrong, charge me with AUI...
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #42,816
  • Oct 31, 2008 1:23am Oct 31, 2008 1:23am
Quoting Iktak
Staying aside of fundamentals and looking only at TA, whould this be possible / probable? Target of 1.0762...???


Speaking for mikey, suntrader and myself (not jaywalker tho cuz he keeps goin long for some reason) I crown you the new Grand Poobah Parity Perma Bear...

FUBAR...
  • #42,817
  • Edited 1:47am Oct 31, 2008 1:27am | Edited 1:47am
Quoting ak4x


Speaking for mikey, suntrader and myself (not jaywalker tho cuz he keeps goin long for some reason) I crown you the new Grand Poobah Parity Perma Bear...

hmmmm... meaning ? I recognize only Grand and Bear ... but still it doesn't ring any bell...
I guess you say that I'm not totally mistaken

EDIT: OK, now I got it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Poobah
  • #42,818
  • Oct 31, 2008 1:34am Oct 31, 2008 1:34am
Did anyone catch those pips, it couldn't be any easier. Daily bearish pin told the whole story. Don't need all those indicators, Just plain old techs and trendlines.

J


Quoting hard1head1
This pin can not be ignored.
  • #42,819
  • Oct 31, 2008 1:50am Oct 31, 2008 1:50am
Quoting Iktak
hmmmm... meaning ? I recognize only Grand and Bear ... but still it doesn't ring any bell...
I guess you say thah I'm not totally mistaken
oops. sorry just checked your profile. Grand Poobah is a stupid americanism term that sort of means "highly exalted" or "supreme master". It's usually used in fun, or at least that's how I use it...

Parity is equal like 1:1.

So your price was so close to parity (only 700 pips and what's that these days?) and the alliteration worked real well, so there it was.. Sounds different after explaining it tho...

Anyway, that's probably pretty optimistic any time soon, but don't listen to anything I say.. noone else does.
FUBAR...
  • #42,820
  • Oct 31, 2008 1:53am Oct 31, 2008 1:53am
London = a bust.
goin to bed.
g'nite
FUBAR...
421 traders viewing now