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  • #42,701
  • Oct 30, 2008 7:18pm Oct 30, 2008 7:18pm
Quoting Kyen
cheers, got in 2 standard lots, closed out at 40. are you waiting on the 2800 break also? Japan is priced in for .25 bps basis cut tonight. if it cuts, i think initial reaction for a massive selloff - which will eventually start a carry buy frenzy.
-0.25 is going to start a frenzy. Nice try.
  • #42,702
  • Oct 30, 2008 7:18pm Oct 30, 2008 7:18pm
What are you looking for in AUDUSD? IM just looking for short carry and eurusd
  • #42,703
  • Oct 30, 2008 7:20pm Oct 30, 2008 7:20pm
Quoting Kyen
cheers, got in 2 standard lots, closed out at 40. are you waiting on the 2800 break also? Japan is priced in for .25 bps basis cut tonight. if it cuts, i think initial reaction for a massive selloff - which will eventually start a carry buy frenzy.
there is an old saying that applies well all the time. "buy the rumor sell the news". earlier this week we saw a perfect example of that. dollar dropped against euro 600 pips in preparation. a little more upwards action after the decision was final after which...well you see where we are now. i want you to look at usd/jpy. jpy dropped big time allright and no real retracement yet. now do you think that the saying "buy the rumor sell the news" does not apply here?..you know the answer to that...your about to make a heap of money...
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #42,704
  • Oct 30, 2008 7:32pm Oct 30, 2008 7:32pm
so we finally broke below the neckline of the h&s and 50% fib retracement. updated pivots shows the pivot point exactly on the shoulderline. temporarily the midlwall of this downtrend is acting as support but like i always say...when price action sticks to one side of the wall in a channel...a violent break to the other wall will occur...in this case the lower wall...that value coincides with 61.8% right about now and i am fully expecting it to be hit, even lower . that value also is very close to support 2 now which is ironic how things correlate so much. guess it means i got a good strategy going

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #42,705
  • Oct 30, 2008 7:35pm Oct 30, 2008 7:35pm
Quoting psiholog
there is an old saying that applies well all the time. \"buy the rumor sell the news\". earlier this week we saw a perfect example of that. dollar dropped against euro 600 pips in preparation. a little more upwards action after the decision was final after which...well you see where we are now. i want you to look at usd/jpy. jpy dropped big time allright and no real retracement yet. now do you think that the saying \"buy the rumor sell the news\" does not apply here?..you know the answer to that...your about to make a heap of money...
lets enjoy this big drop. are you short eur? or aud?
  • #42,706
  • Oct 30, 2008 7:38pm Oct 30, 2008 7:38pm
Quoting Kyen
lets enjoy this big drop. are you short eur? or aud?
i am not placing any orders this week in preparation for the ibfx mini contest in november...call it my relax week. ironically this week could have been my best trading week ever with over 1500 pips gained easily by now on just the eur/usd...no regrets though and take it as confirmation i am prepared to win that #1 spot haha...still i enjoy sharing my thoughts as it may be of benefit to at least one person out there. cant believe algirdas was confused on this predictable price action...
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #42,707
  • Oct 30, 2008 7:40pm Oct 30, 2008 7:40pm
Quoting psiholog
i am not placing any orders this week in preparation for the ibfx mini contest in november...call it my relax week. ironically this week could have been my best trading week ever with over 1500 pips gained easily by now on just the eur/usd...no regrets though and take it as confirmation i am prepared to win that #1 spot haha...still i enjoy sharing my thoughts as it may be of benefit to at least one person out there. cant believe algirdas was confused on this predictable price action...
well let me ask you this, where do you think price action will go to before the rebound? i have some speculative thoughts but would love to hear what you have to say
  • #42,708
  • Oct 30, 2008 7:41pm Oct 30, 2008 7:41pm
Quoting psiholog
so we finally broke below the neckline of the h&s and 50% fib retracement. updated pivots shows the pivot point exactly on the shoulderline. temporarily the midlwall of this downtrend is acting as support but like i always say...when price action sticks to one side of the wall in a channel...a violent break to the other wall will occur...in this case the lower wall...that value coincides with 61.8% right about now and i am fully expecting it to be hit, even lower . that value also is very close to support 2 now which is ironic how things correlate so much. guess it means i got a good strategy going

Attachment
According to the text books we should drop as much from the neckline to the bottom as we dropped from the top of the head to the neckline. Be aware too there may be a return move to the neckline before the long drop.
  • #42,709
  • Oct 30, 2008 7:43pm Oct 30, 2008 7:43pm
I think the world came to an end. Algirdas lost 20 pips!
  • #42,710
  • Oct 30, 2008 7:45pm Oct 30, 2008 7:45pm
Quoting Kyen
well let me ask you this, where do you think price action will go to before the rebound? i have some speculative thoughts but would love to hear what you have to say
tradewell beat me to the punch. what he said is 100% what i was going to say. considering the massive head to neckline action...thats 500pips more from the neckline which would make a new low and fully fill in the void left by this up move. at that point...anything goes really...too early to give my opinion as pa is insufficient...could even turn out into a triple bottom...could drop another 1000points...to be seen
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #42,711
  • Oct 30, 2008 7:46pm Oct 30, 2008 7:46pm
I expect a Hard Bounce North @ ~1.2700. How high? Probably 1.2825 or so.
Then South again.

Problem we are dealing with right now is that "WE" do not have an 'Open Market'. We Have Agreements between Governments & I am not privvy to their coercions but my charts say...

1.2330 should be a Triple Bottom.
& you know what they say about Triple Bottoms! The Don't Last.
Direction from there is another point...
  • #42,712
  • Oct 30, 2008 7:47pm Oct 30, 2008 7:47pm
Altough I was waiting for break of neckline level tested several times today, I am long 1,2781. Call me crazy, but this break was soo unreliable and noone could convince me to go short, altough there was place for a gain on that side also.
  • #42,713
  • Oct 30, 2008 7:51pm Oct 30, 2008 7:51pm
Ok folks,

SHORT @ with stop at 1.2860 // TP: 1.2650

Wait for news, and sell with final TP around 1.2400
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  • #42,714
  • Oct 30, 2008 7:53pm Oct 30, 2008 7:53pm
i would like to mention something i find very important. when i first started trading just over a year ago....the daily average movement from high to low for eur/usd rarely exceeded 200-300pips. this held up until august. since august that range has increased massively and continues to get bigger every day. 200-300pips now one can say is a quick scalp(give a few hours). the point is. we are still seeying the same price action we saw back then. the only difference is the moves are much bigger so like this h&s back then would have been maybe 150pips from top of head to neckline...this one is 500pips. this is why we are not in bull or bear market...we are in....what do the market makers feel like doing today market..thats how quickly things change
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #42,715
  • Oct 30, 2008 8:02pm Oct 30, 2008 8:02pm
Quoting psiholog
i would like to mention something i find very important. when i first started trading just over a year ago....the daily average movement from high to low for eur/usd rarely exceeded 200-300pips. this held up until august. since august that range has increased massively and continues to get bigger every day. 200-300pips now one can say is a quick scalp(give a few hours). the point is. we are still seeying the same price action we saw back then. the only difference is the moves are much bigger so like this h&s back then would have been maybe 150pips from top of head to neckline...this one is 500pips. this is why we are not in bull or bear market...we are in....what do the market makers feel like...
That reminds me. I should wake up My DOR {Daily Open Range} thingy again.
'workin' on doin' that
  • #42,716
  • Oct 30, 2008 8:13pm Oct 30, 2008 8:13pm
Quoting Kyen
What are you looking for in AUDUSD? IM just looking for short carry and eurusd
AUDUSD looking like a sell at the moment. When both EURUSD and AUDUSD go down on dollar buying the EURAUD seems to get very bullish.
  • #42,717
  • Oct 30, 2008 8:15pm Oct 30, 2008 8:15pm

Today there are many data..


Anyway..

If nothing happens .. the price movement for today can be between 2750-3070




Some better suggestion?

The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #42,718
  • Oct 30, 2008 8:21pm Oct 30, 2008 8:21pm
head and shoulder basics 101.
-the movement that follows down after a neckline is broken is usually the range from top of head to neckline...in this case 500pips
-once the right shoulder has been identified....expect it to drop down to the neckline and below which imediately is followed by a pullback to retest the neckline even going above it sometimes before the truly big move down begins


dont believe me?...backtrack to previous h&s..they are beautiful and simple in nature but tricky to trade if you dont know how they behave
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #42,719
  • Oct 30, 2008 8:34pm Oct 30, 2008 8:34pm
Quoting psiholog
head and shoulder basics 101.
-the movement that follows down after a neckline is broken is usually the range from top of head to neckline...in this case 500pips
-once the right shoulder has been identified....expect it to drop down to the neckline and below which imediately is followed by a pullback to retest the neckline even going above it sometimes before the truly big move down begins


dont believe me?...backtrack to previous h&s..they are beautiful and simple in nature but tricky to trade if you dont know how they behave

That H/S to which you refer I do not really like ..
with a bit of experience I say that it is a trap.
Rather, I believe in another H / S upward. At the moment we are building the second shoulder. These are 10 figures upwards who lead the prices between 1.3700 - 1.4300 .

The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #42,720
  • Oct 30, 2008 8:35pm Oct 30, 2008 8:35pm
Interesting is that 60% are chances on BoJ rate cut and still there are some strong hints that it will happen. Today inflation data is good for rate cut, stocks falling - good for rate cut... If it happens, we should see EURUSD slightly upper, on relief in stocks? At least that was scenario untill now...
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