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  • #42,621
  • Oct 30, 2008 10:10am Oct 30, 2008 10:10am
Quoting Algirdas
Today I'm looking for one more reentry:
EUR/USD Sell near 1.2993
GBP/USD Sell near 1.6477
AUD/USD sill looking for Long
NZD/USD still looking for Long (We lost USD pairs correlation with Asian pairs)

USD/CAD key resistance 1.2257
USD/CHF Buy near 1.1381
USD/JPY Sell near 98.33
ALG, you are calculating with the H&S that PSI mentioned before, I like the idea.
  • #42,622
  • Oct 30, 2008 10:29am Oct 30, 2008 10:29am
Quoting cobraforex
ALG, you are calculating with the H&S that PSI mentioned before, I like the idea.
Wouldn't the neckline be higher?

Edit: oh i see; I thought you had used the 7 am ET high as a "shoulder". So it looks like the right shoulder is forming, correct?
  • #42,623
  • Edited 10:42am Oct 30, 2008 10:30am | Edited 10:42am
Quoting psiholog
to go from resistance 3 to possibly support 1 (1.2700) in such a short time....if that does not spell manipulation i dont know what does


Without getting too deep into the literal definitions, it might be useful if everyone determined in their own minds what the difference is between manipulation and volatility.

Briefly, manipulation is defined as "devious management of some situation, especially for one’s own advantage" and volatility as "The state of being unpredictable, and with respect to financial markets specifically, "A quantification of the degree of uncertainty about the future price of a commodity, share, or other financial product."

Bottom to top range of the 4 pairs I watch over the last few days, not counting retracements...
GY = 2600
EJ = 1750
UJ = 960
EU = 970

Here's the thing. I know of NONE of the (likely) driving forces behind the fall of several currencies, and I'll just emphasize the Euro here, that have either diminished, been resolved, or done anything except gotten even worse and more unpredictable.

How many traders here are familiar with the antics of the current situation regarding the IMF loan to Hungary as a single "for instance,” and why that may be important with respect to the Euro? That's just ONE snapshot amongst several similar situations a'rd the EZ alone that is causing unprecedented fear and uncertainty right now. And when in doubt, or more likely when the piper has come calling on your multi bazillion Yen backed loans, you have to find some Yen... In a hurry. Can we all say "Carry Trade Unwinding?"

That's what's been happening plain and simple. There are many peripheral issues as well, but I'm trying to keep it simple as the whole story is bigger than we can know. In that sense, I actually don't feel the markets have really been all that "unpredictable" the last few weeks, as I have simply continued to look at everything thru my rosy YEN colored glasses, as I have posted repeatedly, traded accordingly, and done pretty well by.

The Hungarian crisis alone, not to mention the Russian and Icelandic situations, has the (perceived) potential to eventually bring down all or a portion of the European banking system if it spreads. Starting with a failure in the smaller Romanian, Croatian, and Baltic States banks, the next likely phase would see a failure in the Italian, Austrian, Swedish, and even Greek banks that are heavily involved in the region among others. If the loans to these banks cannot be repaid becuz of spectacularly depreciating currencies like the krona and forint, then the down spiral accelerates, and the epidemic spreads into the whole EZ and then ultimately Europe.

I mention Hungary, becuz altho you've probably heard what the network hotties want you to know about Russia and Iceland, I'll bet few of you have heard about Hungary... (No thanks, I already ate... )

The Yen then continues to appreciate until Yen strength takes out the Japanese economy, if it hasn't already. Cut the rate, Print Mo' Yen, crash the thing if necessary... And hey, when the Yen is done, we have USD at 1%... That’s another post tho. You see… it’s not that the dollar is so strong as some people here keep posting, it’s rather that it hasn’t been whacked as hard as other currencies have or are likely to be, and the global perception is that at the end of the day when the last bloody battered man is still standing, it’s likey to be the good/bad ole USD… think of Sly at the the end of Rocky 1.

So, a lot of print to say I don’t see any manipulation here, just ongoing volatility, another word for cause and effect. We just see the effect before we know the cause. If we ever know the cause...

As always, trade what you see.
FUBAR...
  • #42,624
  • Oct 30, 2008 10:34am Oct 30, 2008 10:34am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
.. Its always testing some ma on some time frame. The key is to pick the ma and time frame you like best and stick with it and don't worry if it hits some one else's ma.
...a key that will unlock many mysteries obi wan.
FUBAR...
  • #42,625
  • Oct 30, 2008 10:37am Oct 30, 2008 10:37am
Quoting TradeWell
Wouldn't the neckline be higher?
i see two possible scenarios for the h&s

scenario 1=blue lines

scenario 2=green lines

note that the 2 lines for each scenario=possibly shoulderline and neckline

i removed fibs to better illustrate. personally id wait until scenario two shoulderline gets tapped for entry short with tight stop loss. if that does not get reached...another good entry short would be when the neckline gets broken for scenario 1. in either case...if this is truly a h&s....lots of pips to come to the downside...confirmation is key though

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #42,626
  • Edited 10:51am Oct 30, 2008 10:39am | Edited 10:51am
Quoting TradeWell
Wouldn't the neckline be higher?

Edit: oh i see; I thought you had used the 7 am ET high as a \"shoulder\". So it looks like the right shoulder is forming, correct?
Could be higher or lower, doesn't matter. A H&S is strong when it is well visible so everybody says: look the H&S let's go short and that acelerates the PA.
That is with all pattern, they do what they do because they are wellknown and traders react on them.

On your Edit: Yes we are awaiting that it get confirmed, the chart from PSI says everything.
  • #42,627
  • Oct 30, 2008 10:45am Oct 30, 2008 10:45am
Quoting psiholog
honestly i have no idea. it makes no sense to me to drop so fast after gaining so fast. we are at 50% fib retracement from the low to the high (1.2329-1.3296)....i think we may go as low as 61.8% retracement but who knows at this point...to go from resistance 3 to possibly support 1 (1.2700) in such a short time....if that does not spell manipulation i dont know what does
In EW speak a trend is comprised of 3 impulsive (i.e. fast moving) and 2 corrective (slower ascent/descent) waves. Which means in a downtrend, which we are still in IMHO, down waves are faster. Nothing manipulative that I see.
  • #42,628
  • Oct 30, 2008 10:45am Oct 30, 2008 10:45am
Thanks to Cobra and Psi for the H&S details.
  • #42,629
  • Oct 30, 2008 10:49am Oct 30, 2008 10:49am
i would like to add another thing about my chart..it is most interesting. while i gave up on EW as they do not suit my style....take a look at the chart for a second. that whole move starting at 1.2470 or so seems like wave 1 up to 1.28xx. from that point we retraced to 1.26xx as wave two and wave 3 followed up to 1.3000. wave 4 was retracement to 1.28xx which was then followed by the last wave...5. after that we now see the correction with the A wave fully completed...the B wave completing as i type this with wave C to follow.

another interesting twist to all this wave 3 of the original move up had its on subwaves 1-5.

with the completion of EW up and the corrective waves now....it fits the h&s that i mentioned....

analysis like this provided to you by the one the only psiholog
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #42,630
  • Oct 30, 2008 10:50am Oct 30, 2008 10:50am
Quoting cobraforex
Could be higher or lower, doesn't matter. A H&S is strong when it is well visible so everybody says: look the H&S let's go short and that acelerates the PA.
That is with all pattern, they do what they do because they are wellknown and traders react on them.
A bearish H&S is bearish because the price action is bearish. Not because it is a H&S pattern that many may or may not recognize - in time to act on.
  • #42,631
  • Oct 30, 2008 11:00am Oct 30, 2008 11:00am
Quoting psiholog
i would like to add another thing about my chart..it is most interesting. while i gave up on EW as they do not suit my style....take a look at the chart for a second. that whole move starting at 1.2470 or so seems like wave 1 up to 1.28xx. from that point we retraced to 1.26xx as wave two and wave 3 followed up to 1.3000. wave 4 was retracement to 1.28xx which was then followed by the last wave...5. after that we now see the correction with the A wave fully completed...the B wave completing as i type this with wave C to follow.

another interesting twist to all this wave 3 of the original move up had its on subwaves 1-5.

with the completion of EW up and the corrective waves now....it fits the h&s that i mentioned....

analysis like this provided to you by the one the only psiholog
Wow......and for free too!
  • #42,632
  • Oct 30, 2008 11:01am Oct 30, 2008 11:01am
Quoting SunTrader
A bearish H&S is bearish because the price action is bearish. Not because it is a H&S pattern that many may or may not recognize - in time to act on.
I second the first part and didn't say anything else but as I know the mostly violate price action on this pattern, specially H&S and DT, is because of their clear visibility to traders, not only retail traders like us.
If you say it isn't like that I will reread that part in my books.
  • #42,633
  • Oct 30, 2008 11:05am Oct 30, 2008 11:05am
Quoting cobraforex
I second the first part and didn't say anything else but as I know the mostly violate price action on this pattern, specially H&S and DT, is because of their clear visibility to traders, not only retail traders like us.
If you say it isn't like that I will reread that part in my books.
So which came first - the chicken or the egg? - the H&S or the reaction to seeing it?
  • #42,634
  • Oct 30, 2008 11:09am Oct 30, 2008 11:09am
Quoting TradeWell
So which came first - the chicken or the egg? - the H&S or the reaction to seeing it?
lol. you have your funny day today.

A H&S has value at the moment that the neckline is broken.
  • #42,635
  • Oct 30, 2008 11:12am Oct 30, 2008 11:12am
Quoting cobraforex
lol. you have your funny day today.

A H&S has value at the moment that the neckline is broken.
which in this case is very close to the pivot level or 50% retracement for this whole move from the low in the 1.2300 to 1.32xx
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #42,636
  • Oct 30, 2008 11:23am Oct 30, 2008 11:23am
Quoting Maxsmart
You're an old guy then right? You still say \"wicked smart\" and \"screw.\" That's awesome.lol
How do you know he screws?
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #42,637
  • Oct 30, 2008 11:25am Oct 30, 2008 11:25am
one other thing i would like to mention before i go off to wonderland. i still stand by my point of manipulation. i understand the eurozone is in a heap of trouble. as is australia, japan, and pretty much the whole world. i understand the fundamentals behind dollar strength and yen strength are sound. when i say manipulation though i mean check in the history of the currencies that currently trade with the dollar, the big ones and notice how never in history has dollar gained so much so quickly. maybe its just because im 22 and wasnt alive during the great depression to see price action then. all i know is from what i see the dollar/yen got so strong so quickly...history is being made and even though the fundamentals are sound....there is alot of manipulation in my mind to make sure the dollar stays and gets even stronger, ignoring the fact the us is not much better then the rest of the world as shown by any time news comes out...which is terrible regarding the us economy....the dollar gets even stronger....any times news comes out which is good regarding the us economy...the dollar gets stronger. forget about libor and liquidity, and the trillions of unpaid debt and the stock market and what bernanke or trichet say...this is a world coordinated effort to ensure the strength of the dollar and that by definition is manipulation
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #42,638
  • Oct 30, 2008 11:26am Oct 30, 2008 11:26am
Quoting psiholog
which in this case is very close to the pivot level or 50% retracement for this whole move from the low in the 1.2300 to 1.32xx
Right

For the ones that are not familar with this pattern might want to visit this link, it is easy to read and understand.
http://www.forex-charts-book.com/cha...rns/04/?page=4
  • #42,639
  • Oct 30, 2008 11:27am Oct 30, 2008 11:27am
I watching to see if we reverse short term (or not). The 15M has found a strong support trendline for the past few days (and a nice 4H channel), and the EMA's are starting to re-order on the 15M.

The daily tested a downtrend line started back on 9/25 and a test of the 76.4% fib set from high on 7/15 to low on 10/27. Stoch and MACD suggesting a reversal but won't confirm of course until after it happens.

Patience and MM is my trading plan.
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  • #42,640
  • Oct 30, 2008 11:29am Oct 30, 2008 11:29am
hourly TL is visible.. and another important event now is that price are a way above daily pivot and weekly.. and 200sma,55 sma and are crossingo over. stoch are looking up..im long at 1.2925 any one the same idea?
"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" leonardo da vinci
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