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  • #4,741
  • Oct 24, 2008 10:21am Oct 24, 2008 10:21am
I would say that was a nice intraday trade.Goodjob!
  • #4,742
  • Oct 24, 2008 10:36am Oct 24, 2008 10:36am
BRV, I'm very surprised I missed that 1.3000 trade. Luckily I got in on a break of shorter support I drew up and still copped about 110 pips, but in hindsight it looks like there were hundreds more available. Unfortunately I wasn't able to stay awake for the break of 1.2750 and I don't like to leave trades open that I can't watch, even with stops and TPs set, but I've averaged taking about 100 pips a night. My return as of the start of last week on my account has been just over 22%, all on 'no brainers'.

You're making it too easy!
  • #4,743
  • Oct 24, 2008 10:51am Oct 24, 2008 10:51am
Quoting smittens4212
BRV, I'm very surprised I missed that 1.3000 trade. Luckily I got in on a break of shorter support I drew up and still copped about 110 pips, but in hindsight it looks like there were hundreds more available. Unfortunately I wasn't able to stay awake for the break of 1.2750 and I don't like to leave trades open that I can't watch, even with stops and TPs set, but I've averaged taking about 100 pips a night. My return as of the start of last week on my account has been just over 22%, all on 'no brainers'.

You're making it too easy!
Great stuff smittens !
  • #4,744
  • Oct 24, 2008 11:18am Oct 24, 2008 11:18am
Lets see if we get some reaction there today.
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  • #4,745
  • Oct 24, 2008 11:54am Oct 24, 2008 11:54am
Quoting Greenhaze
Lets see if we get some reaction there today.
NIce 75 pips bounce at 1.2750
  • #4,746
  • Edited 12:31pm Oct 24, 2008 12:14pm | Edited 12:31pm
Quoting Forex007
Just some thoughts which some of you may find useful. Went through a book on Fibo analysis (http://www.amazon.co.uk/Fibonacci-An...4854653&sr=8-1 .
Someone have the ebook link for that?
Appreciated!
Inz

Quoting BillyRayValentine
2.
.....

2-Digs through data, research, opinions on macro economic conditions affecting the pairs planned to trade for the day, as well as other markets that will affect those pairs......
Dear mister BRV! - polite enough?!

Would you elaborate on exact data your are looking for any morning to make your forcast.
As provide links where you get your info.
Ex: gold, crude price, option ?!?


And.... if you feel like, a little example how you make your logic.
Ex: crude fall, gold fall, usd will go ?....

And don't be shy about your writing addiction, i bet we all Love it, well i do!

Take care!
Inz
  • #4,747
  • Oct 24, 2008 12:52pm Oct 24, 2008 12:52pm
It is all on his blog...

Quoting Inzider
Someone have the ebook link for that?
Appreciated!
Inz




Would you elaborate on exact data your are looking for any morning to make your forcast.
As provide links where you get your info.
Ex: gold, crude price, option ?!?


Inz
  • #4,748
  • Oct 24, 2008 12:56pm Oct 24, 2008 12:56pm
Hi Inzider,

Here's a link to one of BRV's posts on fundamentals: http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2008/...damentals.html

But to give you a brief example (and I'm sure BRV or other members can expand on this), last night at about 7:30PM EST I opened up my charts on the USDJPY and EURUSD (for the time being I've been focusing almost exclusively on these two to keep things simple), and drew up some levels. I read some articles from Oanda FX's reuters feed (available with a demo Oanda account, I don't use Oanda for anything else), but most were a basic summary of what happened during the day-- a big sell off in US equities, before a big rebound at the end of the day.

Starting at 8PM I opened a feed of the Nikkei 225, which is my main focus at this time as equities have been one of the drivers of the USDJPY and EURUSD. Right off the bat equities took a sharp drop, which if you care to look at a chart of the EURUSD, happened to coincide with it coming off 1.3000 and resistance, keying to me that we will have a pretty strong move coming off that if equities hold down. Because I missed the initial bounce, I then looked for a good technical opportunity to get into the trade, which for me happened at a breakout of local support which had previously been resistance. I targeted another technical level, 1.2750, as my profit level, and it ended up being hit, and further broken through strongly as equities continued to get hammered.

That to me is as simple and plain a 'no brainer' as there is-- get a good fundamental idea/plan in your head, execute it on a technical basis, and profit

Opportunities like this happen multiple times a day across currency pairs for various reasons, and that doesn't even take into consideration the counter-trend moves you can execute on a technical basis to scalp quick pips, but I think these are definitely less of a 'no brainer' than the above, because they require a keen eye and good understanding (re: experience) of the markets.

Edit: Guys, it would also help if you fully read the blog (it's only been around a couple weeks, it shouldn't even take that long to go through the whole thing) and try searching the thread, most of the general questions that get asked here have been answered multiple times in this thread or in the blog.
  • #4,749
  • Oct 24, 2008 12:59pm Oct 24, 2008 12:59pm
hi all ,

BRV is talking a lot about news and being well informed , my question is - since we are day trading , how can we know to which news to listen , because during the day there are a lot of information flowing , some are probbably important and some are just thoughts of analysts (from bloomberg for ex.) ...

or will it just be wise to read the news in the beggining of the session to get the bigger picture - the direction of the markets , and just keep updating every now and then ?

my third question is , there are "e-signal" and "oanda" , are they any good meanning for streaming news , I know that "e-signal" is charging for the service , does it worth it?

thanks.
  • #4,750
  • Oct 24, 2008 1:11pm Oct 24, 2008 1:11pm
Barak,

The only news I follow is what I read on bloomberg.com, and what I get through the free Reuters feed on Oanda FX. I don't really think you need much more than this.

As for what to listen to, it's probably best to keep things simple. A lot of the info that flows out there is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things to your trading. If you only trade the JPY pairs (carry pairs), given the current market environment, you only really need to be aware of what is going on in the equity markets. This is pretty simple-- turn on CNBC and see what the DOW is doing, read bloomberg and see what they're saying about equities, etc. See what the trend is, are equities getting killed? Look to buy JPY. Are equities rebounding big (like they did yesterday after the middle of the day)? Expect JPY pairs to bounce. The more pairs you trade, the more information you're probably going to have to digest to be effective, but this becomes easier with time.

For example, look at what just happened on a 5m chart of the EURUSD. US equities are getting smashed (what else is new), and EURUSD broke a short term support level, only to come back to retest it and now it's moving strong south. If I could access my account I would've for sure taken this trade on the retest and locked in a quick 50 pip scalp while I'm working.
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  • #4,751
  • Oct 24, 2008 1:39pm Oct 24, 2008 1:39pm
Hi,
I have just joined this forum to say hello and to thank Billy Ray and others in this thread for the great stuff you are teaching here. There ain't no shortcut to profitable trading but maybe one can at least walk the straigth path if he learns from the very best

Bellow are two trades I took today.

Thank you folks.
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  • #4,752
  • Oct 24, 2008 2:11pm Oct 24, 2008 2:11pm
Quoting smittens4212
Hi Inzider,

Here's a link to one of BRV's posts on fundamentals: http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2008/...damentals.html
Thx ALOT, i missed this one!
Some nice reading for the week-end!

I had a 300 pips day... i'm happy.
Have a nice week end all!
  • #4,753
  • Oct 25, 2008 3:26am Oct 25, 2008 3:26am
Quoting smittens4212
Barak,

The only news I follow is what I read on bloomberg.com, and what I get through the free Reuters feed on Oanda FX. I don't really think you need much more than this.

As for what to listen to, it's probably best to keep things simple. A lot of the info that flows out there is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things to your trading. If you only trade the JPY pairs (carry pairs), given the current market environment, you only really need to be aware of what is going on in the equity markets. This is pretty simple-- turn on CNBC and see what the DOW is doing, read bloomberg and see what they're saying about equities, etc. See what the trend is, are equities getting killed? Look to buy JPY. Are equities rebounding big (like they did yesterday after the middle of the day)? Expect JPY pairs to bounce. The more pairs you trade, the more information you're probably going to have to digest to be effective, but this becomes easier with time.

For example, look at what just happened on a 5m chart of the EURUSD. US equities are getting smashed (what else is new), and EURUSD broke a short term support level, only to come back to retest it and now it's moving strong south. If I could access my account I would've for sure taken this trade on the retest and locked in a quick 50 pip scalp while I'm working.
thank you
  • #4,754
  • Oct 25, 2008 4:15am Oct 25, 2008 4:15am
Quoting smittens4212
Barak,

The only news I follow is what I read on bloomberg.com, and what I get through the free Reuters feed on Oanda FX. I don't really think you need much more than this.

As for what to listen to, it's probably best to keep things simple. A lot of the info that flows out there is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things to your trading. If you only trade the JPY pairs (carry pairs), given the current market environment, you only really need to be aware of what is going on in the equity markets. This is pretty simple-- turn on CNBC and see what the DOW is doing, read bloomberg and see what they're saying about equities, etc. See what the trend is, are equities getting killed? Look to buy JPY. Are equities rebounding big (like they did yesterday after the middle of the day)? Expect JPY pairs to bounce. The more pairs you trade, the more information you're probably going to have to digest to be effective, but this becomes easier with time.

For example, look at what just happened on a 5m chart of the EURUSD. US equities are getting smashed (what else is new), and EURUSD broke a short term support level, only to come back to retest it and now it's moving strong south. If I could access my account I would've for sure taken this trade on the retest and locked in a quick 50 pip scalp while I'm working.

well the thing about equities....When you see dow falling you really can't sell the U/J because that fall is usually already in the price of U/J....and the equities can turn around just like that and no looking back like they have done in the past days.

the best thing you can do is open up a dow chart and mark S/R levels there as well and go for it...

the best thing you can do when you read news is basically "buy the rumor sell the fact"...

what is more relevant if not vital in trading IMO is what the big players are thinking and where their orders are. Or information about any other institution buying or selling. Bank workers know that before hand i guess and trade big amounts accordingly and that's what moves the market. I think BRV or any other trader working for a major bank have a better idea about this and can actually trade more safely than others.


Otherwise charts and trend are the best way to go and a look at equity futures, oil should be a must to become a better trader.
  • #4,755
  • Edited 7:01pm Oct 25, 2008 7:42am | Edited 7:01pm
Quoting smittens4212
Barak,

The only news I follow is what I read on bloomberg.com, and what I get through the free Reuters feed on Oanda FX. I don't really think you need much more than this.

As for what to listen to, it's probably best to keep things simple. A lot of the info that flows out there is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things to your trading. If you only trade the JPY pairs (carry pairs), given the current market environment, you only really need to be aware of what is going on in the equity markets. This is pretty simple-- turn on CNBC and see what the DOW is doing, read bloomberg and see what they're saying about equities, etc. See what the trend is, are equities getting killed? Look to buy JPY. Are equities rebounding big (like they did yesterday after the middle of the day)? Expect JPY pairs to bounce. The more pairs you trade, the more information you're probably going to have to digest to be effective, but this becomes easier with time.

For example, look at what just happened on a 5m chart of the EURUSD. US equities are getting smashed (what else is new), and EURUSD broke a short term support level, only to come back to retest it and now it's moving strong south. If I could access my account I would've for sure taken this trade on the retest and locked in a quick 50 pip scalp while I'm working.

For those who do not know, you don't need to listen to news on where the DOW is, you can simply get it on metatrader charts and have it at your fingertips. If you go to fxpro.com you can download their meta4 platform. They have the DJI (Dow) the S and P 500, the DAX, Crude Futures, Gold, Silver and a few others. This way, you can see to the minute, what is happening. With oil or other futures, you have to add the chart every month as it expires because they only trade one month at a time. To do that, you simply open the market watch window, right click on it, select "symbols" then select "futures" and then left click (once) on the appropriate futures chart, lets say "december light sweet crude) and then select "show". (Keep in mind that futures trade a little over one month in advance so the nov. crude just closed a few days ago and it's now december crude) Close that window and at the bottom of the market watch it should be there, right click on that and then select "chart window". Now you have the up to date oil chart. You can do the same for other futures charts as well and they have the dow futures and s and p futures or "eminis".

Another great site for keeping up on fundamentals is forextv.com. They do 3 videos a day that are concise yet informative on the markets.

Happy trading all,
  • #4,756
  • Oct 25, 2008 10:17am Oct 25, 2008 10:17am
Quoting 4X4EVER
For those who do not know
Thanks for the two info sources!
  • #4,757
  • Oct 25, 2008 1:11pm Oct 25, 2008 1:11pm
Quoting lumesh
well the thing about equities....When you see dow falling you really can't sell the U/J because that fall is usually already in the price of U/J....and the equities can turn around just like that and no looking back like they have done in the past days.

the best thing you can do is open up a dow chart and mark S/R levels there as well and go for it...

the best thing you can do when you read news is basically \\\\\\\\\"buy the rumor sell the fact\\\\\\\\\"...

what is more relevant if not vital in trading IMO is what the big players are thinking and where their orders are. Or information about any other institution buying or selling. Bank workers know that before hand i guess and trade big amounts accordingly and that's what moves the market. I think BRV or any other trader working for a major bank have a better idea about this and can actually trade more safely than others.
When I trade the UJ at night (again, I try to follow the markets during the US session but I work full-time, so I'm usually only able to get maybe 1-2 trades during the during the week at best), I don't have access to a Nikkei chart, and literally just rely on a delayed price quote. Of course the UJ follows equities, but the correlation isn't 1, so often times you can see equities drop and UJ still rise, and this is when I look to short-term resistance (or long if it's actually near it) for a fade, and support for a breakout, because this is when you're going to see a very effective trade turning point (when fundamentals are going one way, and a technical trade presents itself that follows the fundamentals). I know the fade is the 'trade du jour' in this thread, but given the current market volatility, breakouts have been awesome plays on the UJ when equities are falling. So I definitely disagree that the fall is already priced in, you just need a technical opportunity to enter. I posted a trade a few pages ago on the EURUSD that followed this gameplan exactly; Nikkei was dropping, EURUSD was approaching short term support, I played a breakout that in total by the end of the run could've been worth 300+ pips, and nearly 500 if you caught it at the local resistance it bounced off before I got in.

Of course equities can and do turn around, but I've yet to have a serious problem with this. The worst I've had is to lock in break-even (I haven't had one trade following equities turn on me before I had 40 pips and set stop to BE). Recently, US equities have been reversing drops or accelerating small gains into big ones at around 2-3PM. Fortunately I'm not trading at that hour usually, but if I was, I would just be very aware of that, and just follow the numbers. If the DOW is at -400 at 2PM and starts creeping towards -300, you'd be a fool not to monitor any JPY shorts because it's really possible the market could end up +100 by 4pm. Of course the opposite can happen too, and the DOW could go from -300 to -600 in the blink of an eye.

If you are trading the US session, marking up the DOW/S&P would definitely be helpful, but I don't think it's 100% necessary. You can get a decent idea of the market flow just by watching the numbers and the trend, and this alone has been enough for me sometimes.
  • #4,758
  • Oct 25, 2008 3:54pm Oct 25, 2008 3:54pm
Quoting smittens4212
When I trade the UJ at night (again, I try to follow the markets during the US session but I work full-time, so I'm usually only able to get maybe 1-2 trades during the during the week at best), I don't have access to a Nikkei chart, and literally just rely on a delayed price quote. Of course the UJ follows equities, but the correlation isn't 1, so often times you can see equities drop and UJ still rise, and this is when I look to short-term resistance (or long if it's actually near it) for a fade, and support for a breakout, because this is when you're going to see a very effective trade turning point (when fundamentals are going one way, and a technical trade presents itself that follows the fundamentals). I know the fade is the 'trade du jour' in this thread, but given the current market volatility, breakouts have been awesome plays on the UJ when equities are falling. So I definitely disagree that the fall is already priced in, you just need a technical opportunity to enter. I posted a trade a few pages ago on the EURUSD that followed this gameplan exactly; Nikkei was dropping, EURUSD was approaching short term support, I played a breakout that in total by the end of the run could've been worth 300+ pips, and nearly 500 if you caught it at the local resistance it bounced off before I got in.

Of course equities can and do turn around, but I've yet to have a serious problem with this. The worst I've had is to lock in break-even (I haven't had one trade following equities turn on me before I had 40 pips and set stop to BE). Recently, US equities have been reversing drops or accelerating small gains into big ones at around 2-3PM. Fortunately I'm not trading at that hour usually, but if I was, I would just be very aware of that, and just follow the numbers. If the DOW is at -400 at 2PM and starts creeping towards -300, you'd be a fool not to monitor any JPY shorts because it's really possible the market could end up +100 by 4pm. Of course the opposite can happen too, and the DOW could go from -300 to -600 in the blink of an eye.

If you are trading the US session, marking up the DOW/S&P would definitely be helpful, but I don't think it's 100% necessary. You can get a decent idea of the market flow just by watching the numbers and the trend, and this alone has been enough for me sometimes.


true, i'm not imlpying to one on one correlation and a divergence between carry pairs and equities are definitely a way to go.

btw you mentioned 2-3 PM...what time zone you meant by that ? and why is dow probably gaining at these times ? thanks.
  • #4,759
  • Oct 25, 2008 5:02pm Oct 25, 2008 5:02pm
I got this from a friend. A simple drawing which says a lot about buckets. I like it very much. Indeed, these happen all the time, you just have to find them.
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forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #4,760
  • Oct 25, 2008 5:29pm Oct 25, 2008 5:29pm
Quoting lumesh
true, i'm not imlpying to one on one correlation and a divergence between carry pairs and equities are definitely a way to go.

btw you mentioned 2-3 PM...what time zone you meant by that ? and why is dow probably gaining at these times ? thanks.
Eastern Daylight Time is the time-zone. I should mention the opening hour is very volatile too. We're seeing nearly day after day dramatic opens (-500 point openers) and closes (DJI opens up 300, down 300 midday, and up 172 to finish). As for why it's happening, I don't really know. I'm not a stock analyst or anything like that, all I really care about when I'm trading is what stocks are doing and how that's going to affect the currencies. Should just be aware of it.

Spekitox, that's a very good basic illustration of the bucket. I think had that been posted 20 pages ago everyone would've understood them immediately
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