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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #2,241
  • Oct 24, 2008 5:08am Oct 24, 2008 5:08am
Personally I think we will eventually move below 80 USDJPY, carry trade crosses should depreciate accordingly. Do the math

Nice calls Igrok. I am amazed at the speed with which we progressed I have to say. I had high hopes of getting more of a bounce from all the market interventions to get something to short into, but no dice.
Now it feels like the bounce may never come...which usually is an okay indication for it nearing.

This market indeed has had it's lights turned off.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #2,242
  • Oct 24, 2008 6:07am Oct 24, 2008 6:07am
Quoting SeekingLight
Personally I think we will eventually move below 80 USDJPY.
I doubt very much. There is a good possibility that 200 might come before 80.
  • #2,243
  • Oct 24, 2008 6:13am Oct 24, 2008 6:13am
Quoting ernesto
Igrok, guess if 113 on EJ is broken, we might even slowly should start thinking about the scenario shown below?!

a) Does this make sense in your opinion?
b) Why was 113 a must for you? Because of the RED horizontal line?
c) Did I miss any important long-term trendlines?

Thanks for your help.
1. It did. Years ago. Both TL's have already lost their importance.
2. Some unpaid debts at that area.
3. I don't know. Did you?
  • #2,244
  • Oct 24, 2008 6:22am Oct 24, 2008 6:22am
Quoting Igrok
In case I wanted to cover everything that I know about trading I would have never had enough time for trading itself. Would still be sitting writing some sort of an encyclopedia for years.
you already are kind of writing this encyclopedia on your thread... only one paragraph at a time.

Thanks for answering back to my 2nd question; as for the 1st one, i'm still not sure yet how to trade a wolf for a diamond :-)
Once A Trader Always A Trader.
  • #2,245
  • Oct 24, 2008 6:34am Oct 24, 2008 6:34am
Quoting Igrok
1. It did. Years ago. Both TL's have already lost their importance.
2. Some unpaid debts at that area.
3. I don't know. Did you?
Thanks again for your reply. Just for clarification...

@ 1 => Did I draw the trendlines not exact enough and they already have been invalidated by the price crossing them. Or is there any other criteria I have to look for regarding "losing importance of trendlines"? Maybe the amount of touches...

@ 2 => You are referring to Gaps, right? Do you find all those open gaps manually or does your platform provide such feature? Just to make sure I don't invest weeks of time to look for gaps instead of having the right platform with same capability...

@ 3 => :-) ya... that's the big question. As I already read through the thread a few times I recognize you very often mention "connecting year highs/lows" with each other... maybe doing a permutation of all possibilities and deleting all trendlines that have been invalidated would give the answer to that... any hint?

Have a nice day !!!
  • #2,246
  • Edited 12:05pm Oct 24, 2008 6:52am | Edited 12:05pm
Quoting Igrok
I doubt very much. There is a good possibility that 200 might come before 80.
Help ! Game over. I checked divergences and lots of trendline variants... and never would come to this conclusion... I want to know / find out!

Could you please give me any hints regarding...

- how important is the angle of trendlines and are should I watch out for specific angles for specific pairs?
- do you use any data on UJ before 1978?
- maybe I should also check yearly MACD divergences...
- ah... or is it the analysis on other pairs how you can predict the possibility of UJ move...

Really would appreciate any clue to continue working hard to find out myself...
  • #2,247
  • Oct 24, 2008 9:26am Oct 24, 2008 9:26am
Quoting Igrok
I doubt very much. There is a good possibility that 200 might come before 80.
Here, I'll wager a Big Mac vs a BMW (to keep things in proportions for our individual levels of wealth) that we'll hit the 1995 low again the next 24 months, how's that
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #2,248
  • Oct 24, 2008 11:49am Oct 24, 2008 11:49am
Quoting Igrok
Due to the recent budget cuts, new credits unavailabilty, the rising cost of electricity, gas and oil, the light at the end of the tunnel has been turned off.

Igor,

Are you going to continue posting to this thread in 2009?
Redefining Reality
  • #2,249
  • Oct 24, 2008 12:36pm Oct 24, 2008 12:36pm
Quoting piptechnician
Igor,

Are you going to continue posting to this thread in 2009?
If you want to make God laughing tell him about your plans for the future.
  • #2,250
  • Oct 24, 2008 12:38pm Oct 24, 2008 12:38pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Here, I'll wager a Big Mac vs a BMW (to keep things in proportions for our individual levels of wealth) that we'll hit the 1995 low again the next 24 months, how's that
Betting on the underdog must be more rewarding in case of his success.
  • #2,251
  • Oct 24, 2008 12:44pm Oct 24, 2008 12:44pm
Quoting ernesto
Help ! Game over. I checked divergences and lots of trendline variants... and never would come to this conclusion... I want to know / find out!

Could you please give me any hints regarding...

- how important is the angle of trendlines and are should I watch out for specific angles for specific pairs?
- do you use any data on UJ before 1978?
- maybe I should also check yearly MACD divergences...
- ah... or is it the analysis on other pairs how you can predict the possibility of UJ move...

Really would appreciate any clue to continue working hard to find out myself...
- Angles measurements depend on the density of the charts. Therefore only the symmetry counts.
- For UJ I have history from 1947 but am not sure whether it might be useful or not.
- No.
  • #2,252
  • Oct 24, 2008 12:59pm Oct 24, 2008 12:59pm
Quoting Igrok
- Angles measurements depend on the density of the charts. Therefore only the symmetry counts.
- For UJ I have history from 1947 but am not sure whether it might be useful or not.
- No.
Then from a technical analysis point of view I am lost... have no idea what is pointing up to a level of 200 on UJ... the only thing I can think about are unpaid debts... but from unpaid debts solely you would not conclude that we will not see a level of 80 - at least I think so...

As said... any hint towards a direction I should be looking for would be appreciated... nice weekend!
  • #2,253
  • Oct 24, 2008 6:55pm Oct 24, 2008 6:55pm
Quoting Igrok
I have always been the only decision-maker. They could only execute trades based on the plan initially approved by me. Sure, they could suggest something for my consideration and further discussion, as well as to criticize my own ideas and suggestions. But I have never had more than three traders-assistants at a time. The others were responsible for some stuff unrelated to actual trading process. I like this way of organization because all the responsibility for the final result is solely mine, and my people don't hesitate to offer some crazy ideas as they are never under excessive stress and pressure.
What kinda role does non-trading staff do ?
The future depends on what we do in the present.
  • #2,254
  • Oct 24, 2008 7:01pm Oct 24, 2008 7:01pm
Igrok,

I wonder do u take note of this kinda intraday situation.

Example: Yesterday main move is down and today open price is higher than yesterday open price.

Would you be more cautious of your entry and assessment of the situation ?
The future depends on what we do in the present.
  • #2,255
  • Edited 4:37pm Oct 26, 2008 12:08pm | Edited 4:37pm
Maybe a possible broadening triangle on the weekly USD/JPY timeframe? Though moves inside are not in sequence seems price is respecting the LTL. Maybe we have seen the bottom?

Edit: guess this not a bottom.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdyen_weekly_brodtirnagle_271008.jpg Size: 76 KB
  • #2,256
  • Oct 26, 2008 5:55pm Oct 26, 2008 5:55pm
Quoting belekas
Maybe a possible broadening triangle on the weekly USD/JPY timeframe? Though moves inside are not in sequence seems price is respecting the LTL. Maybe we have seen the bottom?

Edit: guess this not a bottom.
What about the sequence of the moves? Broadening formation is called this way because in moves in turns between a rising resistance and a falling support. Obviously, this is not the case.
Also technically it looks quite likely that we haven't seen the bottom yet. However, I don't really think that there is no bottom in sight. Possible to bottom out somewhere at around 87.00 or slightly lower. Then a long journey to 200 might start.
  • #2,257
  • Oct 26, 2008 6:02pm Oct 26, 2008 6:02pm
Quoting compro99
Igrok,

I wonder do u take note of this kinda intraday situation.

Example: Yesterday main move is down and today open price is higher than yesterday open price.

Would you be more cautious of your entry and assessment of the situation ?
Not enough initial info to make any definitive conclusion and to give a certain answer. There could be tenth of other important clues helping out for making a decision in a particular situation.
  • #2,258
  • Oct 27, 2008 2:18am Oct 27, 2008 2:18am
New week new gains. Combs on 4h eur/jpy but not with the trend.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #2,259
  • Oct 27, 2008 5:11am Oct 27, 2008 5:11am
Quoting Igrok
What about the sequence of the moves? Broadening formation is called this way because in moves in turns between a rising resistance and a falling support. Obviously, this is not the case.
Also technically it looks quite likely that we haven't seen the bottom yet. However, I don't really think that there is no bottom in sight. Possible to bottom out somewhere at around 87.00 or slightly lower. Then a long journey to 200 might start.
Yes completely agree. We have some unpayed debts on 200 or theres any significant level out there? Thanks
  • #2,260
  • Oct 27, 2008 6:17am Oct 27, 2008 6:17am
Quoting belekas
We have some unpayed debts on 200 or theres any significant level out there? Thanks
I don't know about debts. However 200 might become a measured objective target on the break of the major line connecting the tops of 1990 and 1998. This TL must be broken no matter what. Most likely within a couple of years from now.
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