Dislikedmoment of truth right here....we break that upper wall and 1.3815(23.6%retracament)...here comes 1.2920 (61.8%retracement) for this last move high to low....we dont break it...here comes new lows and my stop loss...good luck pippin all
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- #41,421
- Oct 23, 2008 11:43pm Oct 23, 2008 11:43pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
- #41,422
- Oct 23, 2008 11:44pm Oct 23, 2008 11:44pm
Wow, I just came back and can't believe it. My analysis from earlier was correct. It did retrace and touch the lower wall of the big downward channel (lower blue line). So now we'll see if it can break thru this downward wedge lower wall by the Europe session or NY session tomorrow, if not then next Sunday or Monday. But when it does....hang on to you SHORT cause it might just fall off 
from going down too fast.
from going down too fast.Now, now guys, we don't need to get at each others. Just get at the market guys.....and gals.
Here is what I see. This is the daily. If we broke of of this down wedge then we will go to 26 or even 25. But we might get a big retracement before we go down to break this lower wall.
http://i35.tinypic.com/2urm7uv.jpg
- #41,424
- Oct 23, 2008 11:52pm Oct 23, 2008 11:52pm
- Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Trade the reaction not the news! | 10,359 Posts
- #41,425
- Oct 23, 2008 11:52pm Oct 23, 2008 11:52pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Self-proclaimed psychologist | 3,179 Posts
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
- #41,426
- Oct 23, 2008 11:55pm Oct 23, 2008 11:55pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
- #41,427
- Oct 24, 2008 12:04am Oct 24, 2008 12:04am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Self-proclaimed psychologist | 3,179 Posts
another noobie question for elliot wave experts. from my limited knowledge i know wave 2 retraces usually 61.8%. but i think i read/heard somewhere it still qualifies as wave 2 as long as it doesnt go below the low of wave 1. so in this particular case...is there a possibility that wave 1 was 1.2734 to the high at 1.3005 which was then followed by wave 2 to current low (which did not break the previous low) and wave 3 is underway?
....any opinions much appreciated
....any opinions much appreciated
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
- #41,428
- Edited 12:21am Oct 24, 2008 12:20am | Edited 12:21am
Just a caution though. If we don not break this lower wedge wall, it will create a tripple bottom on the daily which mean a retracement even bigger than the one earlier today. I could retrace back to the upper wall of the wedge which is around 3200 and then it will fall back down. So will see if will break the 2700 with authority or not. If you are in a short trade you might want to tighten up your SL.
http://i38.tinypic.com/9i7h5i.png
http://i38.tinypic.com/9i7h5i.png
Wow, I just came back and can't believe it. My analysis from earlier was correct. It did retrace and touch the lower wall of the big downward channel (lower blue line). So now we'll see if it can break thru this downward wedge lower wall by the Europe session or NY session tomorrow, if not then next Sunday or Monday. But when it does....hang on to you SHORT cause it might just fall off
- #41,430
- Edited 12:57am Oct 24, 2008 12:43am | Edited 12:57am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Self-proclaimed psychologist | 3,179 Posts
seapip your chart is very similar to mine
i havent paid attention much to the bigger timeframe last few days (bad mistake)..anyways heres 4 hour chart and as it currently stands.
the longer term channel began pretty much at the start of october. i now realize the period of ranging between 1.37xx and 1.34xx with the spike down was just setting the walls for this move that came. (good lesson to remember for the future to detect channels early that last weeks or months). a few days ago we crossed the lower wall...obviously that extended the lower wall now unless there is more downside moves which would then be a break to the downside. the original lower wall is now acting as very strong resistance that 1.2815 value which also coincides with 23.6% current high to low. we break that...we may head to the midwall again. its amusing to me now how i always say when price action sticks to one side of the channel...it breaks violently to the other side...if i thought of this even as late as sunday...oh man would have been alot better off...ah well theres next time....now i have another great tool in my arsenal
...longer term analysis
in my opinion there will be at least one more retest of that 1.3815 wall if it does plan to go lower (or just break up)...to be seen
on that note...im getting off the site...i was too busy posting about that 1.3815 when i should have been watching to close trade if too strong a resistance...ive lost many trades because of this already...donno when ill be back or even if i will be back
i havent paid attention much to the bigger timeframe last few days (bad mistake)..anyways heres 4 hour chart and as it currently stands.
the longer term channel began pretty much at the start of october. i now realize the period of ranging between 1.37xx and 1.34xx with the spike down was just setting the walls for this move that came. (good lesson to remember for the future to detect channels early that last weeks or months). a few days ago we crossed the lower wall...obviously that extended the lower wall now unless there is more downside moves which would then be a break to the downside. the original lower wall is now acting as very strong resistance that 1.2815 value which also coincides with 23.6% current high to low. we break that...we may head to the midwall again. its amusing to me now how i always say when price action sticks to one side of the channel...it breaks violently to the other side...if i thought of this even as late as sunday...oh man would have been alot better off...ah well theres next time....now i have another great tool in my arsenal
...longer term analysisin my opinion there will be at least one more retest of that 1.3815 wall if it does plan to go lower (or just break up)...to be seen
on that note...im getting off the site...i was too busy posting about that 1.3815 when i should have been watching to close trade if too strong a resistance...ive lost many trades because of this already...donno when ill be back or even if i will be back
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
- #41,431
- Oct 24, 2008 1:42am Oct 24, 2008 1:42am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Name real with real own way | 23,413 Posts
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
- #41,433
- Oct 24, 2008 1:49am Oct 24, 2008 1:49am
seapip your chart is very similar to mine
i havent paid attention much to the bigger timeframe last few days (bad mistake)..anyways heres 4 hour chart and as it currently stands.
the longer term channel began pretty much at the start of october. i now realize the period of ranging between 1.37xx and 1.34xx with the spike down was just setting the walls for this move that came. (good lesson to remember for the future to detect channels early that last weeks or months). a few days ago we crossed the lower wall...obviously that extended the lower wall now unless there is more downside moves which would then be a break to the downside. the original lower wall is now acting as very strong resistance that 1.2815 value which also coincides with 23.6% current high to low. we break that...we may head to the midwall again. its amusing to me now how i always say when price action sticks to one side of the channel...it breaks violently to the other side...if i thought of this even as late as sunday...oh man would have been alot better off...ah well theres next time....now i have another great tool in my arsenal
in my opinion there will be at least one more retest of that 1.3815 wall if it does plan to go lower (or just break up)...to be seen
Attachment
on that note...im getting off the site...i was too busy posting about that 1.3815 when i should have been watching to close trade if too strong a resistance...ive lost many trades because of this already...donno when ill be back or even if i will be back
I would be soooo happy if you just could post once or twice per day?
Kind regards
kojak
- #41,434
- Oct 24, 2008 1:54am Oct 24, 2008 1:54am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: RCMM (Risk Analysis Money Manager) | 2,556 Posts
