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  • #4,701
  • Oct 23, 2008 11:45am Oct 23, 2008 11:45am
Here is my analysis of price action based on SR or in my lingo...TSR. I really like to see price come into the open and close of certain candles around a particular price level. On the two attached charts (60M and 5M) you can certainly see where opens and closes show the TSR level and a few doji's right on the price level over that long of a period certainly gives me confidence it it. You can also see when it tagged that level and came off showing the sensativity by the wicks. The 5 minute shows that once we had a larger rally and then an immediate retest of resistance, a nice bounce off that level paid as well. I took the long but missed my entry on the short.
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  • #4,702
  • Oct 23, 2008 12:27pm Oct 23, 2008 12:27pm
Good examples of the TSR, 4X4. I also really like your long trade here. It is a great example of a bucket trade.

I also note that a Gartley trade could set up here for a short at about 1.6274. This will also have confluence with the descending trend line on the 15 minute chart. We shall see what the market gives us.

seattlerust
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  • #4,703
  • Edited 1:01pm Oct 23, 2008 12:37pm | Edited 1:01pm
I just wrote up a long post discussing the USDJPY and had to delete it as it just broke our lower support of 96.86. I shorted the break at 96.79 (a late entry, but luckily it's moving fast and I just got in at a reasonable price still).

Target is 95.75, March 16th low (also reading Oanda fx reports, it looks to be a target for recent shorts too)
Stop-Loss set at 97.15, north of a consolidation/short term S&R.

I really didn't expect another break at this point and to be completely honest am skeptical about this latest one, but I'm +20 right now, so I'm just going to adjust my stops as necessary while I can on my lunch break, and will move my stops to break-even at +40 pips before I let it run and get back to work bitching at FINRA.

Edit: Adjusted stop to 97.00, it's already moving back up, we'll see what happens.

Edit2: As I said I was skeptical about this trade, I won't be surprised at all to see this new low as just the start of a lower diagonal trendline to go with the upper. Gotta roll with the punches, I give myself about a 30% chance of this one reaching it's target, but at worst I get a 20 pip loss which I can live with.

Edit3: I exited the trade at +5. There's been little action after the initial breakout, not a good sign, and I think my initial view that it's going to be rangebound for a bit may hold true but either way I don't want to hold on to a trade I don't feel good about.
  • #4,704
  • Oct 23, 2008 1:05pm Oct 23, 2008 1:05pm
Quoting Willowgal
The bucket came up trumps !

Nice Call Willowgal You are going to be "oldschool" in no time lol

Best Wishes,
Jason
May the fish in your stream of life always bite.
  • #4,705
  • Oct 23, 2008 1:23pm Oct 23, 2008 1:23pm
Quoting smittens4212
Another issue is consolidation, but it should be pretty obvious what's going on there. In the case where I enter a trade that I thought would be a good level and it begins to consolidate-- bouncing back and forth between profitable and losing, I'll usually set my stop loss to outside of the range it's trading in, which is usually defined by some sort of pattern, whether it's just a sideways channel, a pennant, etc. I had a trade like this last night and when I identified a pretty solid pennant it was trading in, I set my stop outside the north side of it as I was in a short. The trade eventually broke the lower TL and then I adjusted my stop appropriately. I also think this is a good method for staying in trades that stall when they're 40+ pips in the green. Basically you want to identify if what's happening is just some short term consolidation where the trade will bounce back and forth in a range (I use the 5 and 15m chart), or if it's an actual solid reversal where you should exit your trade.
How hypocritical of myself. I closed that USDJPY short when it was in consolidation on a 5m chart instead of just adjusting my stop outside the range, and it ended up breaking south and is 40+ in the green right now, even if it's still stalling a bit.

My apologies for the crappy quality, entry was at 96.80 and I closed it while it was in the range at 96.75 instead of just keeping my stop at 96.90. Live and learn
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  • #4,706
  • Oct 23, 2008 4:15pm Oct 23, 2008 4:15pm
Looks like price pivot zone on 15 GBP/JPY. But im beying carefull with shorts as USDX is in for retrace breaking support @ 85. I wonder if we will have any sellers on this level
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  • #4,707
  • Oct 23, 2008 4:17pm Oct 23, 2008 4:17pm
Resistance @ 1.2685 weekly Loonie was respected and price bounced. Was a nice trade actually.
  • #4,708
  • Oct 23, 2008 4:36pm Oct 23, 2008 4:36pm
Quoting belekas
Resistance @ 1.2685 weekly Loonie was respected and price bounced. Was a nice trade actually.
Still in that trade and added to position. I waited for my edge on that one as we are shorting a run a way train

Bill Ray, I see a lot of talk about "TSR" levels, Doji's , Gartley patterns setting up etc. I have read the pdf sever times and will continue to read it. I know your trade plan shuns ambiguous patterns as we are looking to see what everyone else see's. Do you want off topic content in the thread or just post pure "trade plane" setups? The reason I ask is I am afraid you will get upset with the thread going off focus and quite posting. That would be a big loss to us all as I am sure many would agree. The chance to see how a profitable traders mind works is not trivial, it is invaluable in my book. Thank you again for this thread and freely sharing with community what has been working for you.

Best Wishes,
Jason
May the fish in your stream of life always bite.
  • #4,709
  • Oct 23, 2008 4:46pm Oct 23, 2008 4:46pm
Quite obvious and nice trade

Quoting aSandman
Still in that trade and added to position. I waited for my edge on that one as we are shorting a run a way train

Bill Ray, I see a lot of talk about \"TSR\" levels, Doji's , Gartley patterns setting up etc. I have read the pdf sever times and will continue to read it. I know your trade plan shuns ambiguous patterns as we are looking to see what everyone else see's. Do you want off topic content in the thread or just post pure \"trade plane\" setups? The reason I ask is I am afraid you will get upset with the thread going off focus and quite posting. That would be a big loss to us all as I am sure many would agree. The chance to see how a profitable traders mind works is not trivial, it is invaluable in my book. Thank you again for this thread and freely sharing with community what has been working for you.

Best Wishes,
Jason
  • #4,710
  • Oct 23, 2008 4:47pm Oct 23, 2008 4:47pm
Dear Brv ,

first , I would like to thank you for your efforts and insights , the first thing I do every morning is reading your daily notes on the blog , in the last weeks I kept practicing the s&r system combining fibs (levels\retracement) and I've noticed how efficiant they are.

I have some questions that I'll appreciate if you can answer -

1.do you set an order on every s&r that you mention in your blog?

2.do you set an order on s&r in all the pairs that you publish on the blog?

3.I've noticed that you change the levels every day although some of them did not get hit , I mean the ones that you can see on the monthly \ weekly chart , why is that ?

4.in the last few weeks it is common that major moves are happening during the assian session , do you keep trading 24\7?

that's it for now , hope you'll be able to answer ,
once again , thanks a million ,

Barak
  • #4,711
  • Oct 23, 2008 5:24pm Oct 23, 2008 5:24pm
Quoting aSandman
Still in that trade and added to position. I waited for my edge on that one as we are shorting a run a way train
I see a support level on 5m/15m timeframe that price is sitting on right now that served as resistance in the past and once was tested as support and held, so i think im gona play the breakout of this level ;-)
  • #4,712
  • Oct 23, 2008 6:59pm Oct 23, 2008 6:59pm
Quoting belekas
Quite obvious and nice trade
I understand what you are getting at but please don't think that my mention of TSR or dojis here is any different than what BRV views as SR. From what i have seen in this thread, it is very similar if not the same. I am simply trying to show that if you practice and search the charts, you will see that you can identify TRUE support and resistance which can offer very good entries, low draw down and a quick pay. Of course, it isn't perfect as then market never is. I am not trying to confuse anyone.
  • #4,713
  • Oct 23, 2008 7:11pm Oct 23, 2008 7:11pm
Quoting Barak's pip
Dear Brv ,

first , I would like to thank you for your efforts and insights , the first thing I do every morning is reading your daily notes on the blog , in the last weeks I kept practicing the s&r system combining fibs (levels\retracement) and I've noticed how efficiant they are.

I have some questions that I'll appreciate if you can answer -

1.do you set an order on every s&r that you mention in your blog?

2.do you set an order on s&r in all the pairs that you publish on the blog?

3.I've noticed that you change the levels every day although some of them did not get hit , I mean the ones that you can see on the monthly \ weekly chart , why is that ?

4.in the last few weeks it is common that major moves are happening during the assian session , do you keep trading 24\7?

that's it for now , hope you'll be able to answer ,
once again , thanks a million ,

Barak

Hey Barak,

I hope BRV doesn't mind me answering these since they were addressed to him, but in the interest of helping the thread and keeping questions not related to action to a limit, I'll answer.

From reading the thread and his blog, he's mentioned that he does not take every trade listed. Price action and confluence is the key in whether or not a trade will be taken-- for example, let's say we've identified a support level on the USDJPY. If the equities markets are falling strong, you don't want to be anywhere near a buy on the JPY as it's tendency lately has been to strongly mimic the markets (today's mid-day sell off and then immediate reversal is a great example), and it's likely that the support would not hold. Experience and screen time are the keys to knowing whether or not to take a trade.

Levels and charts should be updated every day as circumstances and situations change. Obviously not every level will change, but you need to adapt. Personally, the first thing I do when I get home and start my work on the charts is to re-evaluate everything that's gone on, identify new price patterns and action, and formulate a plan for whatever levels I've marked up. It's not uncommon at all for me to clean sweep my charts anew and then reidentify S&R, and often times I'll come up with the same obvious ones, but without the clutter of old lines, will come up with new ones adapted to current circumstances.

I don't think he trades the Asian session, but I don't want to speak for him in that. I do trade the Asian session every night, usually doing research and drawing up my charts from around 7-8, watch the markets for a bit to get an idea of what the day may bring, and then start looking for and adapting to new trade opportunities.

Hope that helps.
  • #4,714
  • Oct 23, 2008 9:36pm Oct 23, 2008 9:36pm
Wanted to get in at the break of 1.2882 on the downside, but didn't get my entry confirmation after double checking everything else going on until 1.2867, set my initial stop at 1.2905, target is 1.2750.

Basically the Nikkei is getting killed, and I missed the top (not that much of a distinct resistance I could see) so I was waiting for a further confirmation breakout to go short on and this looked like a good turning point.
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  • #4,715
  • Edited 11:18pm Oct 23, 2008 11:04pm | Edited 11:18pm
This writing process is getting more addictive than I care to share, but here's another one about daily planning. Many of the questions I receive regularly can all be solved by incorporating this into your routine. So without and further adieu...

--------------------------------------------------------------------

If there was ever a turning point in my career where I went from mediocrity to consistent profits, it was when I started putting together a daily plan on a regular basis. The exercise takes about a half hour to an hour, and when I say that things started to turn around, I mean things really started to turn around. I went from ups and downs, more losers than winners, etc, to winning every day, and having the ability to fall peacefully asleep every night and knowing that I was better than 98% of other people that take this up for a living.

Daily Planning:

Lack of proper daily planning is a massive hindrance on any trader. Even now, if I don’t do this daily exercise, I find myself completely lost if attempting to trade, and usually don’t end up trading at all because I’m so unsure of what to expect. The commentaries you see on the website every day are just me speaking out my daily thoughts, but I always have a good handle on general price direction and what the safer trades are to take. The other ones, I rarely take, and if I do, use smaller position size. Planning seems like such an easy thing to do because it is, but ask any number of newer traders how much time they really spend each day looking across markets and the reality kicks in as to how many of them are completely uninformed.

Lets assume for a second that there are two basic traders: the constant loser and the constant winner. Here’s my take on what happens every day in their trading lives:

The Constant Loser:

1. Trader sits down at the computer, turns it on, opens up trading platform
2. The moment he open the charts, sees that stochastics are heavily oversold on one timeframe
3. Trader buys the pair with more than comfortable leverage, seeing how heavily oversold conditions are
4. The pair keeps dropping, stop loss gets lowered
5. Trader gets anxious, doesn’t want to lose money, pounds on walls and heart rate increases
6. The pair keeps dropping, stop loss gets lowered
7. Trader looks for clues, doesn’t find any….starts digging through his trading system arsenal for an answer, heart rate keeps increasing
8. The pair keeps dropping, stop loss gets lowered
9. Trader can’t take it anymore, pulling out hair, kicking and screaming, cursing himself out
10. Trader closes the position for a massive loss
11. Pair turns the moment the trade is closed and goes in the favor of the trader

The Constant Winner:

1. Trader sits down at the computer, turns it on, opens up market news and research
2. Digs through data, research, opinions on macro economic conditions affecting the pairs planned to trade for the day, as well as other markets that will affect those pairs
3. Makes conclusive decisions (forecasts) of the pairs planned on being traded based on intermarket cash flows, current trends, market hype fads and potential deviations from any of these
4. Write down these conclusions with references as to why they will occur
5. Opens trading platform
6. Mark up key possible turning points based on raw technical levels using no indicators (major areas of support and resistance, including Fibonacci levels and diagonal trend lines) across multiple timeframes – he is well informed that these areas are noted my the majority of traders in the market
7. Makes a plan about how to trade these levels in conjunction with projected fundamental forecasts and writes it down
8. Sets price alerts on pairs he is trading at key levels, while monitoring price action throughout session for any new levels that are created
9. Sees that price is hitting a resistance level the trader designated, he sells
10. Price moves against the trader 20 pips
11. Trader questions the unexpected move, but doesn’t panic as he is well aware that there is very high probability of the trade being successful based on the information he has gathered
12. Price comes back, and hard. Falls 100 pips in an hour and profit target reached.
13. Price turns against the trader the moment the profit target is hit and position is closed

Misconceptions:

I think one of the largest problems with this business is the way in which it is advertised. If I went through every Forex or Day Trading advertisement on the internet, I bet I could find about 75% of them referencing big profits or how easy it is to trade. This is what gets most traders to start trading in the first place, and the idea that its so easy gets embedded in their subconscious. They don’t think they need to do any more work than what they put in already in order to turn $10k into $10mm.

That’s the notion, but it of course has the reverse affect on traders. Most traders simply aren’t prepared and have no idea what to expect.

Another massive problem is that too much emphasis is put on only trading technicals. My confidence level shoots through the roof if I know that I’m trading in line with intermarket cash flows and have a very good understanding of where price will head and why. Fear goes away and I can let trades do as I intend them to do.

I get many questions from traders asking me how I know if a level is safe to trade, or how I know there is going to be a breakout on a level. The answer to this question is simple: if its in line with my daily plan, and I agree that it would be a safe to take the trade based on all of the information I have gathered for the day.

Measure Twice, Cut Once:

If there’s one major piece of advice I have, its to simply be prepared. This and this alone is going to save you thousands in the long run and a lot of time that would normally be wasted on making up for poor decisions. A half hour to an hour each day isn’t long at all and the benefits to reap from it are only limited to your time on this planet. Trade smart, be informed and do your homework.

My father did a lot of carpentry work and one of the things I used to hear him say all the time was “measure twice, cut once”. You can’t build a house without a blueprint, and you can’t expect to trade profitably without the proper planning.
  • #4,716
  • Oct 23, 2008 11:35pm Oct 23, 2008 11:35pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
This writing process is getting more addictive than I care to share, but here's another one about daily planning. Many of the questions I receive regularly can all be solved by incorporating this into your routine. So without and further adieu...

--------------------------------------------------------------------
very inspiring!
wish me luck!
  • #4,717
  • Oct 24, 2008 12:02am Oct 24, 2008 12:02am
Well done on the blog BRV, I'm an avid reader.

Just wondering about your money management rules. You do say you use a 3:1 ratio does this change at all depending on perceived strength of a trade, which pair your trading or if there are any other significant S&R lines close to your SL/TP's?
  • #4,718
  • Oct 24, 2008 12:23am Oct 24, 2008 12:23am
BRV


Could you please how to understand how to understand COT charts please?

Regards Gerard
  • #4,719
  • Oct 24, 2008 12:41am Oct 24, 2008 12:41am
Quoting BillyRayValentine

.................
If there was ever a turning point in my career where I went from mediocrity to consistent profits, it was when I started putting together a daily plan on a regular basis. The exercise takes about a half hour to an hour.........
Thanks BVR for letting us learn your way of trading
  • #4,720
  • Oct 24, 2008 2:00am Oct 24, 2008 2:00am
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