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  • #41,081
  • Oct 23, 2008 3:30am Oct 23, 2008 3:30am
Quoting emda
I think no traditional techniques are working in this recent crazy market... forget about eliot waves... fibs... stochs.. whatever.... just gamble... but do it with money management... Money management is the only thing always work.
woah, a senior is member telling us to "gamble"?? Just kidding...I have been trading E/U off simple patterns and supp/resist for 7 winns and 4 losses for 60 pips since Aisa. The patterns are there...head n shoulders n' flags.
  • #41,082
  • Edited 3:59am Oct 23, 2008 3:38am | Edited 3:59am
Quoting psiholog
i have heard of mini waves within larger waves before but i think this is the first time i see it with my own 2 eyes...if this is truly elliot waves....this next wave should push us to....anywhere in between 1.2890 and 1.2940 (not sure yet how to accurately determine..will research)....moment of truth...next few hours

in general you are right...most indicators in this market...worthless
Yes it can be possible , the 2nd triangle started forming if expanding type then only possible but it does not look as of yet and no reference of one diagonal triangle and expanding variety making a complex or possible ever & I think it should end with one diag. triangle whatever narrow it may go,now 94 pips to move down & 28 pips max. pace to move ,final subwave e 28 pips ( 1.2849) up & break down or up & down just one more time .



I am looking in H1 tf

fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #41,083
  • Oct 23, 2008 3:48am Oct 23, 2008 3:48am
Quoting fontu
Yes it can be possible , the 2nd triangle started forming if expanding type then only possible but it does not look as of yet.

I am looking in H1 tf

fontu
hmm...im looking at 15min chart...in my opinion if this pattern does end up become EW...i see a potential of 200-300pips max...in other words it wont last for too long....looking at 1h...it will be over before it makes sense...15min chart shows what i interpret as a clear run up from the low (wave 1)...a retracement to 61.8%(wave2) and continuation up from it...now slowly 38.2% became support...once 23.6% decisively broken 3rd wave is underway...just my 2cents as a begginer EW speculator..(fibs i know pretty well though and they do scream continuation up )
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #41,084
  • Oct 23, 2008 3:56am Oct 23, 2008 3:56am
Quoting psiholog
hmm...im looking at 15min chart...in my opinion if this pattern does end up become EW...i see a potential of 200-300pips max...in other words it wont last for too long....looking at 1h...it will be over before it makes sense...15min chart shows what i interpret as a clear run up from the low (wave 1)...a retracement to 61.8%(wave2) and continuation up from it...now slowly 38.2% became support...once 23.6% decisively broken 3rd wave is underway...just my 2cents as a begginer EW speculator..(fibs i know pretty well though and they do scream continuation up )
Hi Psholog,
which fib do u mean scream up right now?
Love your comments and had to ask about this one..
  • #41,085
  • Oct 23, 2008 4:01am Oct 23, 2008 4:01am
Just got up to check trade status and see these posts saying "just gamble" like it's all come down to flippin a coin or something. Others that indicators are all worthless... etc.

If I was to buy into all that at face value, I'd say it's time to quit playing trader, get a check from the broker, and go get a 9 to 5, cuz I'd probably make more money with better hours, and less risk. Maybe get some job benefits as well.

Sounds irresponsible to me. Some folks that come here are actually influenced by what they read. My indicators are all working pretty good, if my pip count and more importantly percentage of increase are any "indicators". I may have to adapt this or that thing to changing conditions, but that's trading. Adapting may even be a challenge from time to time and that too is trading...

Can only speak for myself here, but my trend turn indi's signal what they always have. My entry, exit, and retracement indi's are fine. My fibs and pivots are working flawlessly as always. My scalp tools seem to be ok as well. Not sure what the problems ya'll are having might be, but maybe it's just old fashioned "operator error..."

Every trade we make is the result of a decision we make. If I don't have the info or input I need to make one, then I wait till I do. Till then, it's business as usual, just faster, more intense, and the potential for greater reward....

Bring it on.

If I can't hack it, then maybe I better go look for that 9 to 5.
FUBAR...
  • #41,086
  • Oct 23, 2008 4:03am Oct 23, 2008 4:03am
Quoting ak4x
Just got up to check trade status and see these posts saying \"just gamble\" like it's all come down to flippin a coin or something. Others that indicators are all worthless... etc.

If I was to buy into all that at face value, I'd say it's time to quit playing trader, get a check from the broker, and go get a 9 to 5, cuz I'd probably make more money with better hours, and less risk. Maybe get some job benefits as well.

Sounds irresponsible to me. Some folks that come here are actually influenced by what they read. My indicators are all working pretty good, if my pip count and more importantly percentage of increase are any \"indicators\". I may have to adapt this or that thing to changing conditions, but that's trading. Adapting may even be a challenge from time to time and that too is trading...

Can only speak for myself here, but my trend turn indi's signal what they always have. My entry, exit, and retracement indi's are fine. My fibs and pivots are working flawlessly as always. My scalp tools seem to be ok as well. Not sure what the problems ya'll are having might be, but maybe it's just old fashioned \"operator error...\"

Every trade we make is the result of a decision we make. If I don't have the info or input I need to make one, then I wait till I do. Till then, it's business as usual, just faster, more intense, and the potential for greater reward....

Bring it on.

If I can't hack it, then maybe I better go look for that 9 to 5.
Right on Brotha!

I'm peddling this bike as fast, and cautiously, as I can to keep from having to look for that 9 to 5. Without "gambling", yesterday was a 127 PIP day.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #41,087
  • Oct 23, 2008 4:04am Oct 23, 2008 4:04am
Quoting kojak
Hi Psholog,
which fib do u mean scream up right now?
Love your comments and had to ask about this one..
last low to current high....also used current high to the 61.8% retracement to get overlapping fib values...see where strong resistance/support is...that 23.6% was a strong wall...now that it got broken...it may get retested to prove it has become support...if its a falsie...boo...haha


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: current.gif Size: 39 KB
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #41,088
  • Oct 23, 2008 4:05am Oct 23, 2008 4:05am
Quoting psiholog
last low to current high....also used current high to the 61.8% retracement to get overlapping fib values...see where strong resistance/support is...that 23.6% was a strong wall...now that it got broken...it may get retested to prove it has become support...if its a falsie...boo...haha


Attachment
The 38.2 on 1.2727 retrace to 1.3032 is what's holding - on for dear life. Actually, that's a confluence area of 38.2, my pivot point for today (2844), 2850 psych, and AK4X's pivot point for the day (2852 if I recall from earlier posts).
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #41,089
  • Oct 23, 2008 4:10am Oct 23, 2008 4:10am
Quoting ak4x
Just got up to check trade status and see these posts saying \"just gamble\" like it's all come down to flippin a coin or something. Others that indicators are all worthless... etc.

If I was to buy into all that at face value, I'd say it's time to quit playing trader, get a check from the broker, and go get a 9 to 5, cuz I'd probably make more money with better hours, and less risk. Maybe get some job benefits as well.

Sounds irresponsible to me. Some folks that come here are actually influenced by what they read. My indicators are all working pretty good, if my pip count and more importantly percentage of increase are any \"indicators\". I may have to adapt this or that thing to changing conditions, but that's trading. Adapting may even be a challenge from time to time and that too is trading...

Can only speak for myself here, but my trend turn indi's signal what they always have. My entry, exit, and retracement indi's are fine. My fibs and pivots are working flawlessly as always. My scalp tools seem to be ok as well. Not sure what the problems ya'll are having might be, but maybe it's just old fashioned \"operator error...\"

Every trade we make is the result of a decision we make. If I don't have the info or input I need to make one, then I wait till I do. Till then, it's business as usual, just faster, more intense, and the potential for greater reward....

Bring it on.

If I can't hack it, then maybe I better go look for that 9 to 5.
when i said worthless i was reffering to 800pips drop in 72 hours...no partial retracements just bear after bear candle...did your indicators show how that would happen cause it definetely left me clueless
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #41,090
  • Oct 23, 2008 4:12am Oct 23, 2008 4:12am
Quoting Petefaders
woah, a senior is member telling us to \"gamble\"?? Just kidding...I have been trading E/U off simple patterns and supp/resist for 7 winns and 4 losses for 60 pips since Aisa. The patterns are there...head n shoulders n' flags.
heh...yes the thing is that you can gamble and still make money using the proper money management.
  • #41,091
  • Oct 23, 2008 4:16am Oct 23, 2008 4:16am
ak4x... I had various false signals in my indicators recently... also in price action aswell... Don't tell me that the market behaviour is normal now because it is not.. if you optimize indicators for this market they may not work next month when the market gets "normal" again. I only say... be careful.
  • #41,092
  • Oct 23, 2008 4:19am Oct 23, 2008 4:19am
Quoting SpecialEd
and AK4X's pivot point for the day (2852 if I recall from earlier posts).
that was the central pivot ed, and is peculiar to how I trade as I learned it from dove alliance

especially when the spread between pivots is wide like recently, the central will frequently act as it's own "pivot". all other things being equal, which way price breaks at the 5pm open from the central is something i watch carefully for the asia session in particular. best thing you can do is plot it and watch what price does from there. I trade off that thing all the time.

the daily pivot is actually 2888 by my calcs. central is 2852. enjoy
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #41,093
  • Oct 23, 2008 4:22am Oct 23, 2008 4:22am
Quoting ak4x
that was the central pivot ed, and is peculiar to how I trade as I learned it from dove alliance

especially when the spread between pivots is wide like recently, the central will frequently act as it's own \"pivot\". all other things being equal, which way price breaks at the 5pm open from the central is something i watch carefully for the asia session in particular. best thing you can do is plot it and watch what price does from there. I trade off that thing all the time.

the daily pivot is actually 2888 by my calcs. central is 2852. enjoy
Yes, I know (from previous conversation) what pivots you use. My system says the daily pivot for today is 1.2844. That is based on a 2400EDT close. I think you use a 1700EDT close. SDX-Pivots indicator also uses the 2400 version. I've noticed over time, comparing yours to mine, that the difference is negligible.

Have a good one,
Ed

Edit: Trying to push through your pivot now. If it makes it to 2865, I think it goes to 2915, which is 61.8 fib, plus a recent high.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #41,094
  • Oct 23, 2008 4:25am Oct 23, 2008 4:25am
Quoting psiholog
hmm...im looking at 15min chart...in my opinion if this pattern does end up become EW...i see a potential of 200-300pips max...in other words it wont last for too long....looking at 1h...it will be over before it makes sense...15min chart shows what i interpret as a clear run up from the low (wave 1)...a retracement to 61.8%(wave2) and continuation up from it...now slowly 38.2% became support...once 23.6% decisively broken 3rd wave is underway...just my 2cents as a begginer EW speculator..(fibs i know pretty well though and they do scream continuation up )
I just see the 15 M chart , they are all in the corrective wave of of big 4 only

http://www.gogetin.info/eu1el14.gif


It is very good to use fib with EW but I have learn fib yet , perhaps next forex holiday try learning .

fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #41,095
  • Oct 23, 2008 4:28am Oct 23, 2008 4:28am
2850 being tested again......
somethings gotta give..... 2850 or 273x.......which one ???????
  • #41,096
  • Oct 23, 2008 4:29am Oct 23, 2008 4:29am
Quoting fontu
I just see the 15 M chart , they are all in the corrective wave of of big 4 only


It is very good to use fib with EW but I have learn fib yet , perhaps next forex holiday try learning .

fontu
hmm...this too is a matter of perception i guess depending on each individual trader...the way i see it...Ew starts from only the last low...the rest was just sideways trending with a volatile range....only this last move up had any sense in it and so far it does look like what i interpret as wave 3 is happening...which should make wave 4 a nice pullback to reload on once i unload this long soon....
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #41,097
  • Edited 5:18am Oct 23, 2008 4:29am | Edited 5:18am
Quoting acumen
We've mentioned words like \"re-pricing\",\"over valued\",\"safe haven\" etc.
And most importantly "de-leveraging".

(I wouldn't go long eurusd before relative strength of the currencies will go up and there is a definite higher low, there are better pairs to trade now, namely CAD/JPY and CAD/CHF)

Here is a picture of 20 day ROC first for all currencies and then for eurusd. (upper pic euro is blue, usd white)

White line below is a difference between currency strengths for euro and usd (white line), roc% of 20 days between eur (green) usd (Red) and all other currencies.

It's interesting to note that both euro and usd are in fact going up relative to other currencies on medium term, dollar is just going up more.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: multiroc2.gif Size: 38 KB
  • #41,098
  • Oct 23, 2008 4:36am Oct 23, 2008 4:36am
Quoting emda
I think no traditional techniques are working in this recent crazy market... forget about eliot waves... fibs... stochs.. whatever.... just gamble... but do it with money management... Money management is the only thing always work.
Quite with you agree. Now a market quite hardness to understand. A technical method does not work. It is necessary to make many pushes, to define motion of course.
  • #41,099
  • Oct 23, 2008 4:40am Oct 23, 2008 4:40am
AK4X,

Don't you scalp using the 34sma? If so, is your method as simple as watching when price crosses the ma in either direction and trying to catch 10-15 PIPs? If not, would you pm me and elaborate?

Also, what TF do you scalp on? Assuming M1, but maybe M5?

Thanks,
Ed
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #41,100
  • Oct 23, 2008 4:45am Oct 23, 2008 4:45am
Quoting ak4x
that was the central pivot ed, and is peculiar to how I trade as I learned it from dove alliance

especially when the spread between pivots is wide like recently, the central will frequently act as it's own \"pivot\". all other things being equal, which way price breaks at the 5pm open from the central is something i watch carefully for the asia session in particular. best thing you can do is plot it and watch what price does from there. I trade off that thing all the time.

the daily pivot is actually 2888 by my calcs. central is 2852. enjoy
Ak4x,thankx for showing how to use the 62ema thingy,now i want to know how u calculated the cental pivot you got.......plss if theres any way,pls share and if its a pivot calculator u use..can u kindly hsare also.
thank you
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