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  • #40,801
  • Oct 22, 2008 8:32am Oct 22, 2008 8:32am
Quoting TexasforEX
I am loving these levels to buy ALL commodities.

See me in 3 months.
Why wait that long. I'll see you at the bottom, it is coming fast at the rate things are moving this week.

Euro 1.00 (a little sarcasm, but you never know)
  • #40,802
  • Oct 22, 2008 8:33am Oct 22, 2008 8:33am
Quoting mikkom
I'm not so sure about the bubble is just euro. See the lines below this chart, it is multipair ROC (rate of change %) of 20 days.

Euro is not the worst (or the best) currency by any means. I'm staying out of it at the moment because there are weaker and stronger pairs and concentrating on the weakest/strongest pairs (currently two I'm trading are long AUDCAD and short CADJPY)

edit: euro is blue, dollar white, jpy red, cad green and aud gray
That is all well and good, but the bubble is was referring to goes back a lot longer than 20 days.

Nice chart though.
  • #40,803
  • Oct 22, 2008 8:35am Oct 22, 2008 8:35am
If you want to know something about the dollar strength read this:

http://www.dailypfennig.com/

It's a good explanation for this violent (anti-fundamentals bullish USD) move.
  • #40,804
  • Oct 22, 2008 8:35am Oct 22, 2008 8:35am
Quoting SunTrader
Euro 1.00 (a little sarcasm, but you never know)
1 I doubt, 1.20-1.22 believe quite likely.

Looks like a complex h&s forming on 5m-15m charts, base around 825.
Quoting TIckerShuffl
COme on break out to the topside... everyone and their uncle is crying short EURUSD, there has to be some pain for them too
Actually I just read yesterday on Dailyfx how the ratio of retail longs increased considrably the previous week, which is a nice contrarian indicator and indeed we see these sharp drops eating at all the stop losses..
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #40,805
  • Oct 22, 2008 8:39am Oct 22, 2008 8:39am
Quoting SunTrader
That is all well and good, but the bubble is was referring to goes back a lot longer than 20 days.

Nice chart though.
Yes of course but the line shows the overall correlation for much longer period (any point in line is roc of 20 days before that point relative to all other currencies) and euro is not on bottom anywhere on the chart (okay it's second to bottom after it came down from the top). If you look for bubbles, look at AUD. On 20 day CCI the difference is even more visible but ROC is very simple way to display the currency postion relative to other currencies and not argue about if some indicator works or not

btw, it's really worth looking aud and cad for the next days, something is happening with them.
  • #40,806
  • Oct 22, 2008 8:41am Oct 22, 2008 8:41am
Quoting Jurrasic
1 I doubt, 1.20-1.22 believe quite likely.

Looks like a complex h&s forming on 5m-15m charts, base around 825.

Actually I just read yesterday on Dailyfx how the ratio of retail longs increased considrably the previous week, which is a nice contrarian indicator and indeed we see these sharp drops eating at all the stop losses..
Exactly all the small traders wanting to believe "the dollar can't strengthen", can it? Oh yes it can.
  • #40,807
  • Oct 22, 2008 8:43am Oct 22, 2008 8:43am
Quoting Jurrasic
1 I doubt, 1.20-1.22 believe quite likely.

Looks like a complex h&s forming on 5m-15m charts, base around 825.

Actually I just read yesterday on Dailyfx how the ratio of retail longs increased considrably the previous week, which is a nice contrarian indicator and indeed we see these sharp drops eating at all the stop losses..

1.63 gbp/usd and 1.28 eur/usd were VERY EASY targets based on obvious drops and 50% retracements on the daily charts.

I've been trumpeting these levels every time I log into FF.

We'll see if this move overshoots down further...
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #40,808
  • Oct 22, 2008 8:54am Oct 22, 2008 8:54am
Quoting TexasforEX
... and 1.28 eur/usd were VERY EASY targets based on obvious drops and 50% retracements on the daily charts....
I see a 38.2% retracement of the whole move from Oct '01, which we overshot by 316 pips. Close enough for a move covering 7 years though!! But if we don't get above shortly and regain upmove with HH's and HL's then 1.20 here we go.

Can you post a pic showing 1.28 zone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.PNG Size: 34 KB
  • #40,809
  • Edited 9:05am Oct 22, 2008 8:57am | Edited 9:05am
Well if the corelation with Crude hasn't broken, expect more lows in EU, Crude now down -$4 and low is $67.75.
  • #40,810
  • Oct 22, 2008 8:59am Oct 22, 2008 8:59am
Not a prob Sun, if this is the bottom it would be a really precise move despite all the volatility!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 14 KB
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #40,811
  • Oct 22, 2008 9:04am Oct 22, 2008 9:04am
Quick question for you fib experts.

I'm on the H4 time frame and wanting to draw the fibs.

Can someone have a quick look and see if I've drawn the fibs correctly? Since we are in a down trend I drew from the 'high' of the top of the 'down trend' to the 'low' of the down trend.

edit: the confusing thing about drawing the fibs this way is that I can't see 'where' it is going to go lower. However if I drew the fibs from an uptrend then I would be able to see lower.

In my current chart I cant see any level below the 0 mark.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #40,812
  • Oct 22, 2008 9:05am Oct 22, 2008 9:05am
USA is basically telling world buy Dollars and we will give you all our taxpayer dollars.

This is not good for my long...oh crap.
  • #40,813
  • Oct 22, 2008 9:07am Oct 22, 2008 9:07am
Quoting altrader
Quick question for you fib experts.

I'm on the H4 time frame and wanting to draw the fibs.

Can someone have a quick look and see if I've drawn the fibs correctly? Since we are in a down trend I drew from the 'high' of the top of the 'down trend' to the 'low' of the down trend.

I'm forever a student of the market but I do know that it is not always as simple as the high and low. Look for pivotal levels as opposed to the extreme levels.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #40,814
  • Oct 22, 2008 9:08am Oct 22, 2008 9:08am
Quoting Algirdas
Money flows like water
Now FOREX very simple. Everything Short, just USD/CAD and USD/CHF Long
Just Buy as much as you can. And Hold positions as much as you can. Very simple.
Do not close no one our yesterday or yesterday before ENTRY
It's very difficult to make exact Updates. Use your own indicators for Selling EUR,GBP,AUD, NZD and USD/JPY. Buy USD/CAD and USD/CHF
Hold as much as you can. Now we have thousends and thousends of pips
{Promotion Removed}
  • #40,815
  • Oct 22, 2008 9:16am Oct 22, 2008 9:16am
I wish I had money flowing in like water like Algirdas - damn I'm jealous...
  • #40,816
  • Oct 22, 2008 9:17am Oct 22, 2008 9:17am
Quoting Algirdas
Do not close no one our yesterday or yesterday before ENTRY
It's very difficult to make exact Updates. Use your own indicators for Selling EUR,GBP,AUD, NZD and USD/JPY. Buy USD/CAD and USD/CHF
Hold as much as you can. Now we have thousends and thousends of pips
THIS IS UNREAL.... I AM JUST SITTING ON SIDELINES, WAITING FOR RETRACE AND CAN'T FIGURE OUT WHEN THAT IS .. NOTHING MAKES SENCE..
  • #40,817
  • Oct 22, 2008 9:17am Oct 22, 2008 9:17am
Quoting HarshFX
I wish I had money flowing in like water like Algirdas - damn I'm jealous...
I don't know...these recent calls are questionable, but I agree the guy is good.
  • #40,818
  • Oct 22, 2008 9:18am Oct 22, 2008 9:18am
Quoting Xaron
If you want to know something about the dollar strength read this:

http://www.dailypfennig.com/

It's a good explanation for this violent (anti-fundamentals bullish USD) move.
Thx for sharing this...this gives at least some sort of understanding and hope...hope, that at some point we will have "normal" ( whatever that is ) markets again...
It is kinda comforting when even professionels donīt really understand all this according to the fundamentals which telling something different...
  • #40,819
  • Oct 22, 2008 9:18am Oct 22, 2008 9:18am
Well, today im glad im only trading on demo. But just happened to made some nice pips going long. Had a RSI of 5 on the 1 minute chart @ 2800...never seen that so low. Managed to do a nice trade, its actually still open but trail stop takes me out with 40 pips surely.

edit: no longer glad to have decided to trade only on demo today... this move had all my losses covered by 10 pips already...now im feeling really stupid...
  • #40,820
  • Oct 22, 2008 9:19am Oct 22, 2008 9:19am
Quoting altrader
Quick question for you fib experts.
It all depends on what kind of fib study you want to apply, in other words whether you are looking for a continuation or a retrace.

The way you have it on your chart is for a retracement to see the resistance levels if the market turns back up. Fib projections are best used for continuations.
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