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  • #40,681
  • Oct 22, 2008 12:10am Oct 22, 2008 12:10am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
So who wants to play \"catch a falling sword\"?

Anyone?
I guess with the moves lately catching a falling knife is now catch a falling sword!! Sounds right.
  • #40,682
  • Oct 22, 2008 12:11am Oct 22, 2008 12:11am
Quoting SunTrader
I guess with the moves lately catching a falling knife is now catch a falling sword!! Sounds right.
or something bigger than that..
  • #40,683
  • Oct 22, 2008 12:12am Oct 22, 2008 12:12am
Quoting glias
conspiracy theorist, me, never. but dont tell me you dont smell this stench??

its a matter of time i guess, we ll all know. right now people are happy cause they are riding the pip wave, but i m pretty sure what we are observing here today will have immense macro effect in the very near future (see mid 2009).
Shoe is on the other foot. I don't recall anyone having a problem when the dollar was dropping like a stone.
  • #40,684
  • Oct 22, 2008 12:14am Oct 22, 2008 12:14am
Quoting SunTrader
In one week maybe.

Tuesday's trading day ended at 5:00pm est - drop was 300+ pips. Now we are trading Wednesday's daily bar.
I have been following this thread occasionally and now I just want to say: until this very minute EUR/USD has dropped over 600 Pips in not even two days ( because this day is just starting here in Europe. ).

So yes...not 450 on one day...but also not 450 in one week

This is just nuts....I agree that there are things going on we donīt know, because as far as I am concerned there are no reasonable reasons for this...I know, it doesnīt belong here, but just look at the GBP/USD...over 1000 Pips in 1,5 days...this is nothing a reasonable person can understand....
Probably just the same kind of panic that occurred on the other markets over the past few weeks...
Because I donīt see any real reasons for the dollar to rise either...it has gotten as bad as it could ( and who knows what is in the future ) regarding the US economy, employment, etc...there is NO reasons for the dollar to fly...
So I am kinda wondering when this bubble will burst?? After the elections?
Is it manipulated for showing the people: look how strong we are against the world?
Is it some big boys just gambling? Who knows.....

These are just my humble two cent...
  • #40,685
  • Oct 22, 2008 12:14am Oct 22, 2008 12:14am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
So who wants to play \"catch a falling sword\"?

Anyone?
Only if I can have one of those giant ACME magnets Wile E. Coyote would use.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #40,686
  • Oct 22, 2008 12:16am Oct 22, 2008 12:16am
Quoting SunTrader
I guess with the moves lately catching a falling knife is now catch a falling sword!! Sounds right.

Actually if you were not holding shorts it would have been a good time to go long for a few pips as both E.U and G.U hit the 100% level from the last swing high/low. To the pip. Took some profit at that level and letting the rest ride out this retracement.
Just Trade It
  • #40,687
  • Oct 22, 2008 12:19am Oct 22, 2008 12:19am
Quoting 4rexLady_de
I have been following this thread occasionally and now I just want to say: until this very minute EUR/USD has dropped over 600 Pips in not even two days ( because this day is just starting here in Europe. ).

So yes...not 450 on one day...but also not 450 in one week

This is just nuts....I agree that there are things going on we donīt know, because as far as I am concerned there are no reasonable reasons for this...I know, it doesnīt belong here, but just look at the GBP/USD...over 1000 Pips in 1,5 days...this is nothing a reasonable person can understand....
Probably just the same kind of panic that occurred on the other markets over the past few weeks...
Because I donīt see any real reasons for the dollar to rise either...it has gotten as bad as it could ( and who knows what is in the future ) regarding the US economy, employment, etc...there is NO reasons for the dollar to fly...
So I am kinda wondering when this bubble will burst?? After the elections?
Is it manipulated for showing the people: look how strong we are against the world?
Is it some big boys just gambling? Who knows.....

These are just my humble two cent...


The trend might end in the next trade to come across your screen or it may go on for days, weeks, months maybe even years. Who knows. Who cares why it is happening. It is happening though. And whether it moves up or down you can make money. "Why" is for the talking heads in the media who have to have a reason. Would it make anyone feel better if they knew the reason "why". I doubt it.
  • #40,688
  • Oct 22, 2008 12:20am Oct 22, 2008 12:20am
we may be looking at a short term low here 200% of the last swing down on a daily.

12718. did not quite touch it but close enough.

Time is also about right but I'll be buying with care.
  • #40,689
  • Oct 22, 2008 12:20am Oct 22, 2008 12:20am
130 pip retrace for the ride back down anyone??

closed one of my shorts for some 120 pips....and had another stupid short i took get stopped at 30 pip loss on this retrace.....

oh well.....90 is better then nothing.

New short at 2860 and will hold till london and see what happens.
--post hoc ergo propter hoc--
  • #40,690
  • Oct 22, 2008 12:22am Oct 22, 2008 12:22am
OK, the dent I made in the merlot has inspired me...

What says the peanut gallery?? Let it rip. I care not.
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #40,691
  • Oct 22, 2008 12:22am Oct 22, 2008 12:22am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Actually if you were not holding shorts it would have been a good time to go long for a few pips as both E.U and G.U hit the 100% level from the last swing high/low. To the pip. Took some profit at that level and letting the rest ride out this retracement.
My post# 40604

"Only possible support areas I see presently are:

1.2775-1.2710 zone (3 different fibs) and then 1.2160"
  • #40,692
  • Oct 22, 2008 12:22am Oct 22, 2008 12:22am
Quoting SunTrader


The trend might end in the next trade to come across your screen or it may go on for days, weeks, months maybe even years. Who knows. Who cares why it is happening. It is happening though. And whether it moves up or down you can make money. \"Why\" is for the talking heads in the media who have to have a reason. Would it make anyone feel better if they knew the reason \"why\". I doubt it.


Up, down or sideways. Funnymentals only gives an excuse after the fact.
Just Trade It
  • #40,693
  • Oct 22, 2008 12:23am Oct 22, 2008 12:23am
Paul Hank " i believe in strong dollars" ...that when a megatrend was turning around ,while people were forecasting 1.7000 initialy and 2.10000 in extention
speculator ^#(^
"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" leonardo da vinci
  • #40,694
  • Oct 22, 2008 12:25am Oct 22, 2008 12:25am
hi traders

i sent here from two weeks ago my calls for euro
i forecast the continuation of the down trend.
another breakout confirm the down trend in both euro and British pound.
as shown in my charts.
and here we go i opened one short position at 1.4700 area
and price now almost 1000 pip profit.
i like to thanks all other great traders to give me the chance to see my targets come true .
so the question now where the price is going?
the answer in the trend
the trend is down i wait for another 1000 pip before i close my positions.
as i said before no matter price go up will fall like rock
coz the trend is down
i hope you great traders have fun with price coz i already did..hahaha
and dont forget the fundamental aspect!!!!!
and to be clear to you
all the buyrs and the sellers are here in those threads and you know the forex basic rule
only 20% win and the other 80% loss
so try to figure it out by your mind
yea they fool you and robb your money
they said the price is going up and you will find the price is going down and visa verse ,try to observe and make your mind work
in threads we call this move the {news}.

and i tried to warn you from time ago by sending the trend direction , i hope i did my part by good way.
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  • #40,695
  • Oct 22, 2008 12:25am Oct 22, 2008 12:25am
Quoting SunTrader
Shoe is on the other foot. I don't recall anyone having a problem when the dollar was dropping like a stone.
It never fell that quick and that hard...took 1.5 years for euro to move from 1.3 to 1.6...only 2 month to make opposite way...

Took 3 years for the pound from 1.6 to 1.9..less than 3 months for the reversal way...
  • #40,696
  • Oct 22, 2008 12:26am Oct 22, 2008 12:26am
Quoting ak4x
OK, the dent I made in the merlot has inspired me...

What says the peanut gallery?? Let it rip. I care not.
Maybe, curious to see how Lehman CDS settlement goes on Weds. Might have an impact on moves into the end of the week and next.
  • #40,697
  • Oct 22, 2008 12:26am Oct 22, 2008 12:26am
Quoting 4rexLady_de
I have been following this thread occasionally and now I just want to say: until this very minute EUR/USD has dropped over 600 Pips in not even two days ( because this day is just starting here in Europe. ).

So yes...not 450 on one day...but also not 450 in one week

This is just nuts....I agree that there are things going on we donīt know, because as far as I am concerned there are no reasonable reasons for this...I know, it doesnīt belong here, but just look at the GBP/USD...over 1000 Pips in 1,5 days...this is nothing a reasonable person can understand....
Probably just the same kind of panic that occurred on the other markets over the past few weeks...
Because I donīt see any real reasons for the dollar to rise either...it has gotten as bad as it could ( and who knows what is in the future ) regarding the US economy, employment, etc...there is NO reasons for the dollar to fly...
So I am kinda wondering when this bubble will burst?? After the elections?
Is it manipulated for showing the people: look how strong we are against the world?
Is it some big boys just gambling? Who knows.....

These are just my humble two cent...
exactly 4rexldy, and let me add that the ECB lending rate is still twice as high as the Fed's at 1.5% currently in contrast too, the ecb's 3.75%. do i also have to mention that Euroland is the worlds largest economy by both GDP GNI, and the majority of G8 are actually members of the Eurozone??

all bias put aside, like you, i am simply an economist trying to make some sence of it all thats all. and in case anyone thinks in euro based, im not im all made in the USA..
  • #40,698
  • Oct 22, 2008 12:28am Oct 22, 2008 12:28am
Quoting SunTrader
My post# 40604

\"Only possible support areas I see presently are:

1.2775-1.2710 zone (3 different fibs) and then 1.2160\"

This was my short term support. Long term it still has a few pips to the downside and if it breaks that support then we will see a few thousand pips drop.
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Just Trade It
  • #40,699
  • Oct 22, 2008 12:28am Oct 22, 2008 12:28am
Quoting ak4x
OK, the dent I made in the merlot has inspired me...

What says the peanut gallery?? Let it rip. I care not.
I'm looking at the same thing it is forming a H/S before retrace back up
  • #40,700
  • Oct 22, 2008 12:29am Oct 22, 2008 12:29am
Quoting emeric33
It never fell that quick and that hard...took 1.5 years for euro to move from 1.3 to 1.6...only 2 month to make opposite way...

Took 3 years for the pound from 1.6 to 1.9..less than 3 months for the reversal way...
Nope, it did in the 80s.
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