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  • #40,201
  • Oct 20, 2008 11:46am Oct 20, 2008 11:46am
Quoting anwarsadique
Don't like what i am seeing now.. Its trading at 1.3319 now.. If anybody long i would close the position and wait to see where it goes next
I would go short from here.. Now trading at 1.3296.
  • #40,202
  • Oct 20, 2008 11:54am Oct 20, 2008 11:54am
Quoting anwarsadique
I would go short from here.. Now trading at 1.3296.
hm.. i would go long instead for a little while and set small TP.
  • #40,203
  • Oct 20, 2008 11:57am Oct 20, 2008 11:57am
i watched that speech tmac live and also watched eur/usd action at same time before falling asleep....90% of the south move happened before bernanke said a word
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #40,204
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:00pm Oct 20, 2008 12:00pm
Quoting Tmac
educate yourself on the whys and whats of forex and the pair you trade and stop all the damn guessing on direction.....


Dollar strengthens in early US session after Fed Chairman Bernanke said that additional fiscal stimulus package should be considered to help improve \"access to credits\" by consumers, homebuyers, businesses and other borrowers given the \"extraordinarily uncertain\" economic outlook. In his testimony to House Budget Committee, Bernanke said that such actions might be \"particularly effective\" at promoting \"economic growth and job creation.\" Dollar index soars to as high as 82.92. USD/CHF is back pressing 1.1486 high and could be resuming recent up trend. The Japanese yen is also mildly higher against most major currencies except the dollar.
You are right under a fundamental strategy , which can be viewed on the H4. but I believe, on the M15 charts; those small waves cant be held for such news. I agree 100% that the long run trend is downwards for this reason
I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work -
  • #40,205
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:01pm Oct 20, 2008 12:01pm
Quoting allangenex
hm.. i would go long instead for a little while and set small TP.
I don't know about Long, may be you are right.
I am new to FOREX and don't use any technical indicators. usually go by the price action.
I will start trading live account from tomorrow. This is my second call. First call was OK. Lets see what happens with this short call...
  • #40,206
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:04pm Oct 20, 2008 12:04pm
Quoting Tmac
educate yourself on the whys and whats of forex and the pair you trade and stop all the damn guessing on direction.....


Dollar strengthens in early US session after Fed Chairman Bernanke said that additional fiscal stimulus package should be considered to help improve \"access to credits\" by consumers, homebuyers, businesses and other borrowers given the \"extraordinarily uncertain\" economic outlook. In his testimony to House Budget Committee, Bernanke said that such actions might be \"particularly effective\" at promoting \"economic growth and job creation.\" Dollar index soars to as high as 82.92. USD/CHF is back pressing 1.1486 high and could be resuming recent up trend. The Japanese yen is also mildly higher against most major currencies except the dollar.

thank you for your kind suggestion, but in any case. my questions pertained to the time frame he was analyzing. lack of specific information regarding his analysis does not allow others to view his position. If this was stated in a prior post I apologize. Analysis always varies on the time frame the chart is based on. a daily chart will definitely look different than a 30M.

i'm currently waiting to see if 1.329 gets definitively broken before re-entering.
  • #40,207
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:09pm Oct 20, 2008 12:09pm
Quoting Tmac
exactly

one cannot trade this market the same as 3 months ago, your indicators, MA's and squiggly lines mean little right now.
fundamentals are also skewed. regular "actual > forecast = good for currency" does not necessarily apply. like when the down went nuts the last couple of weeks.
  • #40,208
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:12pm Oct 20, 2008 12:12pm
Quoting kasper
fundamentals are also skewed. regular \"actual > forecast = good for currency\" does not necessarily apply. like when the down went nuts the last couple of weeks.
ya'll got the answers so good luck

nothing has changed in here over time, its the same as always, names change but attitudes do not, thats why the old crowd is gone never to return, shame really.

some have a need to be right and will not and can not be helped or guided
Don't chase the market, Let the market come to you
  • #40,209
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:12pm Oct 20, 2008 12:12pm
Quoting Tmac
The only way the global economy can recovery is to have a "strong" dollar, simple!!
Agree! ... that's why the currency movement is crazy.
  • #40,210
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:14pm Oct 20, 2008 12:14pm
Quoting psiholog
i watched that speech tmac live and also watched eur/usd action at same time before falling asleep....90% of the south move happened before bernanke said a word
Psi, I watched the speech and the market as well. I thought USD gradually strengthened over the duration, but mostly afterwards. In fact, look at the M1 TF. You'll see that EUR was strengthening until 1404, when EUR/USD began to slowly decline over several minutes and an hour or so.

Remember also that his speech got released to the media before or about the time he started speaking anyway, so we had his info in advance.

Ed
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #40,211
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:18pm Oct 20, 2008 12:18pm
.....hands!
I have some longs and I am hedging same amount short.
Now thinking, what the hell am I doing!
My guts are telling me that a bottom is near.
But everyone knows that fishing a bottom is something that we must not do.
I am tempting to close all my trades, and power off the computer for awhile, but I will wait and see where we will close today.
This Drop is a NO DROP, This damn crap has no strength to drop below 1.3300, what kind of drop is this?
I will not tell what I am Thinking to do, maybe there are some spys around here!!!!
  • #40,212
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:18pm Oct 20, 2008 12:18pm
the only thing that puzzles me extremely and i cant figure out is during this whole morning the stock market has been above even. this past few weeks whenever the stock market was up (dow especially)...eur/usd was higher for the day....today is the exact opposite...i dont understand why this correlation would end now...any ideas out there? i understand what bernanke said about stimulus package as well...but doesnt that mean put more dollars out there?..therefore decreasing their value? at least the initial reaction...im so lost..hah

Edit: i got it!...iceberg order as mikkom said for the past few hours....3 hours ago is already history!..dun dun dun
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #40,213
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:21pm Oct 20, 2008 12:21pm
watch out BtL - Tmac may flip his lid.

I agree there is little momentum to this downmove. There is a lot of uncoupling of traditional fundamentals at the moment and I don;t believe even the best of us (Tmac?) can read the them at the moment. Straight-forward S&R may have us drifting to 3250 but ultimately all depends how the asians feel about profit-taking.
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #40,214
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:22pm Oct 20, 2008 12:22pm
Quoting psiholog
the only thing that puzzles me extremely and i cant figure out is during this whole morning the stock market has been above even. this past few weeks whenever the stock market was up (dow especially)...eur/usd was higher for the day....today is the exact opposite...i dont understand why this correlation would end now...any ideas out there? i understand what bernanke said about stimulus package as well...but doesnt that mean put more dollars out there?..therefore decreasing their value? at least the initial reaction...im so lost..hah

Edit: i got it!...iceberg order as mikkom said for the past few hours....3 hours ago is already history!..dun dun dun
indeed - dow up, carry trades down, that's not right. Like I said, fundies are very hard to read right now. My small brain has always ignored them anyway.
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #40,215
  • Edited 2:42pm Oct 20, 2008 12:34pm | Edited 2:42pm
Quoting Algirdas
I bouth very Small amount EUR/USD 1.3290 Psychological level, and Sold USD/CHF 1.1520
I'll move Stops near ENTRY as soon as possible
Stops for all pairs are today's lowers and highers
{Promotion Removed}
  • #40,216
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:35pm Oct 20, 2008 12:35pm
Quoting cgldsmth
indeed - dow up, carry trades down, that's not right. Like I said, fundies are very hard to read right now. My small brain has always ignored them anyway.
commodities up too...especially oil...somethings gotta give soon...it took a strong power to control price action for so long...but not everyone can hold control forever...
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #40,217
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:37pm Oct 20, 2008 12:37pm
Quoting anwarsadique
I don't know about Long, may be you are right.
I am new to FOREX and don't use any technical indicators. usually go by the price action.
I will start trading live account from tomorrow. This is my second call. First call was OK. Lets see what happens with this short call...
This does not have any strength to move up.. I would add more to my shorts at current price, 1.3306
  • #40,218
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:41pm Oct 20, 2008 12:41pm
Perhaps the correlation is what your mind needs to see in order to feel comfortable for entering a trade or worse yet staying in a losing trade. The later statement is what I call “Dumb Justification”.

An earlier post stated that trading three months ago is different from trading today. Maybe your method from three months ago was flawed but the market cooperated and gave you the illusion that your method was on the money.

A good trading strategy works in any market. Price action is the only fundamental you need to trade well and with success.

Remember that chart analysis is nothing more than confirming history and is only good when used with price action. Price Action is the present and the future is completely undecided.
  • #40,219
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:41pm Oct 20, 2008 12:41pm
you can get crazy trying to figure out all the correlations... it's enough to look only at one chart... the one that you trade...
  • #40,220
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:43pm Oct 20, 2008 12:43pm
I am not touching anything. Seems like an options play is in order if anything, some strangle or something to play off the forthcoming price action with limited exposer - or at least a known risk.
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