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  • #40,101
  • Oct 19, 2008 11:30pm Oct 19, 2008 11:30pm
Quoting ak4x
Gotcha... here's a thought tho about that reversal point, haven't thought about it much, but I plan to take a look at it later. It's from trout, who I listen to very carefully.

\"Technically, the Euro will change its trend to up on a trade through 1.3785. Until this occurs, continue to press the downside\"
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=116837
Thanks,The article matches closely with where I have the dark orange fibs on my chart on down move from .3770 to .3345. 100% retrace will put me to within 15 pips of Trout's thoughts. I also see 1.4470 as an area to watch( 76.4 % retrace ofmove from 1.4870 area to 1.3258).
Again though, my original question was is my analysis really screwed up, and if so please help me see what I am missing. Thanks for your help
  • #40,102
  • Oct 19, 2008 11:35pm Oct 19, 2008 11:35pm
price action is screaming breakout. not to me. even though the bull is very much alive i still think we will retap the lows of the day first. there is one secret i discovered about price action i mentioned when i first started posting here when price action was well above 1.4.

When price action is not fluid...and there are many gaps in between candlesticks (especially the 15min)...those gaps end up getting filled 75% of the time. even with these volatile days i still have observed it holds true in most cases and i dont believe this case to be any different. the 25% that does not apply is in case of breakouts..hmm...you be the judge if this is one of those times

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after closing first trade at even and considering friday we couldnt go above 1.3515....this is a risk worth taking regardless of the result...satisfied all around
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #40,103
  • Oct 19, 2008 11:38pm Oct 19, 2008 11:38pm
One thought here, my upper 30m and 1hr BB 's are at 80-85, with the 2/4hr BB's above that at R1/3497. That could be a booger to break unless this thing finds some friends in high places... all of my friends are in low places.[/quote]

I would tend to agree with you here (my BB's are similar). Not looking at a confirmed breakout of this range to the upside until momentum can push price above 3520 with some umph. I'll be riding it if it does. If on the other hand, it continues to play this "Home on the Range" tune; I'll go along with it back down.

SeerEye
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
  • #40,104
  • Oct 19, 2008 11:51pm Oct 19, 2008 11:51pm
My Take:
Getting tougher to even Scalp this pair as it hovers between;
1.3522
1.3390
in ever narrowing ranges.
These Levels are becoming increasingly decisive for me.

Break to The Upside has room for ~ +200 Pips to the 1.3785 area with consolidation around
~1.3579, ~1.3615 & ~1.3670
Break to the Downside, Retest ~1.3260 ---> ??? ~1.2980
  • #40,105
  • Oct 19, 2008 11:52pm Oct 19, 2008 11:52pm
4H close at these levels indicates a clear break to the top of the triangle.
  • #40,106
  • Oct 19, 2008 11:54pm Oct 19, 2008 11:54pm
Maybe, just maybe I have a hope to have this thing in a profit.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #40,107
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:14am Oct 20, 2008 12:14am
Quoting psiholog
price action is screaming breakout. not to me. even though the bull is very much alive i still think we will retap the lows of the day first. there is one secret i discovered about price action i mentioned when i first started posting here when price action was well above 1.4.

When price action is not fluid...and there are many gaps in between candlesticks (especially the 15min)...those gaps end up getting filled 75% of the time. even with these volatile days i still have observed it holds true in most cases and i dont believe this case to be any different. the 25% that does not apply is in case of breakouts..hmm...you be the judge if this is one of those times

Attachment

after closing first trade at even and considering friday we couldnt go above 1.3515....this is a risk worth taking regardless of the result...satisfied all around
one other thing before i go away for some time. market open continued from where friday left off. it was such a beautiful close and an even better open...the market makers did what is only normal...they created this oh so beautiful breakout which i feel has no strength behind it only to confuse us all..(they want 80% of us to fail lets not forget). so...for the time being...i am ignoring all longer term patterms/resistances/supports and only looking at the patterns formed today.

an uptrend with a smaller recent uptrend within it...a break of this will truly determine direction...not the triangle which is misleading now

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #40,108
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:15am Oct 20, 2008 12:15am
Quoting Gofer Pips
Again though, my original question was is my analysis really screwed up, and if so please help me see what I am missing. Thanks for your help
I went back to your post and saw that you are expecting big moves if the triangle breaks and will assume that's what you're asking about. For large moves, let me say again that for my part, I'm seeing most everything these days thru yen colored glasses... for better or worse, but that's where Ive been coming from 9 out of 10 position trades lately.

For intraday scalps or range trades, that won't matter as much. The really big moves lately have been yen driven imo, and still will be until a clearer picture emerges of the risk appetite. That said, this week may begin to change that dynamic and we'll see more typical and familiar forces at work. So we'll see.

I've had to smile a time or two the last couple weeks when some poor soul is all flustered cuz the news releases were all great or terrible and the pair did not respond accordingly or at all. When every single yen on the planet was up for grabs, who cares about news? The big moves were all yen driven imo. Said it repeatedly. Makes for easy trading and some great no-brainer trades. If it gets back to "normal" I'll have to work harder. Yuck.

In other words, If UJ and/or GY doesn't break first, then I'm less excited about EU making a big move, "breakout" or not. So I may not be the best guy to ask.

The only other note I'd make is that I'm very suspicious of sideways moves thru ascending /descending TL's being called "breakout", especially when you're many hours, sessions or even days into the sideways thing. That is where Bemacs post comes in about the horizontal S/R levels being so significant.

I have NEVER aknowledged sideways movement thru anything as other than sideways movement... When it gets annoying and nothing happens... I delete or hide the silly things until something changes. When it gets REALLY annoying I hide everything like below and study it until it talks to me. Shouldn't matter what the time frame is... Only one question, short, long, or stand aside?
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FUBAR...
  • #40,109
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:22am Oct 20, 2008 12:22am
BTW, the chart was an 8hr EU going back to Sept 22. Gap near the bottom of the drop was Oct 3 Close/Oct 5 Open
FUBAR...
  • #40,110
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:34am Oct 20, 2008 12:34am
AK4X...
Is that a descending TL over the Mountains?

Now you got me looking for Divergance!

{sorry for the sojourne}
  • #40,111
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:37am Oct 20, 2008 12:37am
Final thought from me and I'm knocking off. Study this chart for abit and decide what you see. Remember the drop it made to get here...

It's a 2hr eu, but changed to line style. I like doing this sometimes when I think i have it all figured out. The absence of noise from candlesticks and everything else can be helpful...

Our biggest challenge is making sure we are accurately seeing what we're looking at. Without that, any decision we make is flawed on some level.

G'nite and careful trades all.

Oh look, I'm up 30 pips. How bout that? Take off 70% and SL at +3. Sweet.
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FUBAR...
  • #40,112
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:40am Oct 20, 2008 12:40am
Quoting Bemac
AK4X...
Is that a descending TL over the Mountains?

Now you got me looking for Divergance!
Yes it is!! It's the MOTHER OF ALL DOUBLE TOPS as well (Denali in the Alaska range) . Check out my profile pic for the fib that goes with it.

Divergence... that's good.
FUBAR...
  • #40,113
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:47am Oct 20, 2008 12:47am
looks like this rising channel is going to break...
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  • #40,114
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:53am Oct 20, 2008 12:53am
hi guys


hope you guys had a good weekend.

so back to back guys ...

for euro&cable the last week was bearish as usual ,
the down trend rule price movement for the last months because the weakness of euro+cable against dollar,
to me this move will last for more coming months .

for euro
the yellow line shown in my charts is the massive down trend& the white lines are retraces turn to bearish breakouts which confirm the down trend.

i will add more shorts when price break 1.33XX area
i will target more 1000 pip to the down baby...hahahah

trade well.
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  • #40,115
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:54am Oct 20, 2008 12:54am
It's now forming a railway pattern on 1 hr chart which means that a possibility to the downside is still on the way. If it's the case,this is a false breakout and we still need to wait for the true breakout. I'll be waiting for the next hr candle to confirm the direction.
  • #40,116
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:56am Oct 20, 2008 12:56am
Quoting magictrader
looks like this rising channel is going to break...
honestly...this whole day looks alot like elliot waves...where the pros on the subject when we need them =/...if that is the case..we are about to enter wave 5 which is up...i will definetely learn elliot waves now as they are intertwined with fibonacci

oh yeah...im still short for the time being...a break of 1.3525 seems like a job for powerful forces right now...
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #40,117
  • Oct 20, 2008 1:10am Oct 20, 2008 1:10am
Quoting ak4x
The really big moves lately have been yen driven imo, and still will be until a clearer picture emerges of the risk appetite. That said, this week may begin to change that dynamic and we'll see more typical and familiar forces at work. So we'll see.
Just found this bit... relates to my statement above. Excellent article and if you watch LIBOR, you'll want to read it soonest. If you don't watch LIBOR... why not?
FUBAR...
  • #40,118
  • Oct 20, 2008 1:20am Oct 20, 2008 1:20am
go euro go...
1.3500 break.. more than 20 pips... is the break we are looking for
  • #40,119
  • Oct 20, 2008 1:32am Oct 20, 2008 1:32am
For anyone who are interested.

OPTIONS: Expiries of note for today's 1000EDT/1400GMT cut
* Euro-dollar; $1.3600, $1.3700

So likely we will see 1.36 today....
  • #40,120
  • Oct 20, 2008 1:50am Oct 20, 2008 1:50am
Quoting FXraider
For anyone who are interested.

OPTIONS: Expiries of note for today's 1000EDT/1400GMT cut
* Euro-dollar; $1.3600, $1.3700

So likely we will see 1.36 today....
thanks
is there some info about how to trade expiry dates out there?
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