EURUSD | Page 2004 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Similar Threads

MT4: how to change "EURUSD" to "#EURUSD"? 3 replies

Re: EurUsd short term 15 replies

did oanda just drop its spread for eurusd to 1 pip? 11 replies

EA for multiple lot limit order for EURUSD 0 replies

NFP nice bump up on EURUSD 2 replies

Attachments: EURUSD
Exit Attachments

EURUSD

  • #40,061
  • Edited 8:20pm Oct 19, 2008 8:15pm | Edited 8:20pm
Pivots for today thru 5pm EST Monday.

Sunday pivots are a pain and I have like 90% confidence in them instead of my usual 99.99%...

I use HL from Friday, and the Close from Sunday 5pm. So you know the how of mine. I know others do things differently. No worries, and may the best and most accurate pivots rule. Convince me yours are better, and I'll jump over the edge with you.

I left my 1hr TL's on this shot for reference and removed everything else. Color coded... yellow on bottom is/was most likely to break, and so on up to red which is strongest and least likely to break.

So. You can see how IF price continues to respect M3 pivot AND the descending red TL... and hopefully on down towards M2 and the orange TL, then my scenario is intact and I'm happy. Something other than that, like a break north, I'm unhappy and some of you will be happy instead of me. Everbody get that?

Stupid Off Topic PS. Hard rejection AGAIN and hold below 176.50 on GY should be interesting for EJ which should drag EU with it some. Break above should drag EJ/EU up and mess up my night on several levels... In that case, I have a good merlot set aside. Or was it a case of merlot...? I get confused.
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #40,062
  • Oct 19, 2008 8:22pm Oct 19, 2008 8:22pm
Just unhid the rest of my indi's and saw that M3 converges to the pip with the 2hr 34sma. I feel better.
FUBAR...
  • #40,063
  • Oct 19, 2008 8:25pm Oct 19, 2008 8:25pm
Quoting acumen
I trade pivots on a 15 min chart.

I also incorporate psych levels which are as important.

Check out my site.

http://www.thefxpivotpoint.com/Videos.htm

I have video for each month but the system is under Pivot Point System... oddly enough.

Mike
Pivots are amazingly important along with round numbers. Went back to paper trading last week incorporating pivots with my trendlines to see how that would work. Success ratio was incredible. At least 75% to 80%. I will be back trading my cash account this week.
  • #40,064
  • Oct 19, 2008 8:31pm Oct 19, 2008 8:31pm
... Different pivots!!
I have in one PP 1.3454 and other at 1.3437.
Usually I have same read in these two charts.
Very Strange!!!
  • #40,065
  • Oct 19, 2008 8:32pm Oct 19, 2008 8:32pm
Quoting PipPilot
Pivots are amazingly important along with round numbers. Went back to paper trading last week incorporating pivots with my trendlines to see how that would work. Success ratio was incredible. At least 75% to 80%. I will be back trading my cash account this week.
Hey PipPilot,would you share your trading style?
  • #40,066
  • Oct 19, 2008 8:34pm Oct 19, 2008 8:34pm
Quoting psiholog
simple trade simple logic i hope...great job spotting a second reason as to why it did not go any lower gofer (your post is just fine). now when i allow myself to trade in 1 minute i will be looking for what happens close to 1.3460. honestly i will not short because this triangle has narrowed down big time now...breakout could occur at any time....thats the only thing i will play

Trade is still tightly range bound in your triangle. 3469 is still resistance (holding for the past hour) and close to R1 around 3483. 3400 is support.

Have no idea (and don't care) which way it will break out, but the daily is suggesting some retrace maybe back to 3900 to a major down trendline. Some scalps in the triangle but I will wait for the breakout up or down.
  • #40,067
  • Oct 19, 2008 8:43pm Oct 19, 2008 8:43pm
Quoting PipPilot
Pivots are amazingly important along with round numbers. Went back to paper trading last week incorporating pivots with my trendlines to see how that would work.
I don't think most people really appreciated Bemacs post last week for what it was. We're extremely close to uncharted waters here at these low levels and extreme panic and fear driven spikes above or below any given level mean little to nothing to me beyond the moment. Price didn't trade to those levels so much as stampede to them.

So you have to go back to past S/R levels for reference points, be they pysch levels, weekly pivots, whatever... The one thing the strongest S/R levels have in common (imo) is that they are horizontal in nature or gradually angled over weekly, monthly or even yearly retests.

Since the euro is still experimental far as I'm concerned, and has never dropped like this before... no tellin what it'll do. I'm giving less and less confidence to angled TL's as we go lower. It's like driving in a genuine full-on whiteout. I've driven for miles idling along at 2-4 mph and never able to see the road for more than a few seconds at a time. I've driven the whole distance by looking out the side window at the barely visible snow berm shoulder, the ONLY reference point I had...

Horizontal S/R levels can be like that as we drop off the bottom of the charts in days ahead. I'm speaking longer term here. We might need to wait for all the global placebos to run their course first before we go to Round 2.
FUBAR...
  • #40,068
  • Oct 19, 2008 8:45pm Oct 19, 2008 8:45pm
Quoting pipsfari
Hey PipPilot,would you share your trading style?
Pretty much Acumen's style with pivots and the bias (long or short) set by the pivot point (PP) on a 15M or 5M chart. But I augment this with a valid trendline (at least 3 touches; the more the better). I also use an indicator by TRO (you can search on him) that plots dynamic Fib's which I use to locate strong support (blue dots) and strong resistance (blue dots) on the same 5M and 15M charts. These levels are very similar to Keltner or Price channel indicators.

I only use ema's, stochs, or other oscillators and indicators for confirmation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-15M-19OCT08.jpg Size: 202 KB
  • #40,069
  • Oct 19, 2008 8:55pm Oct 19, 2008 8:55pm
i will admit it...i got a little impatient and wanted to test the market. i thought it was breaking down so i said why not..try a little short...big oops there hah. no worries just the usual testing the ground at sunday open. in any case...we are in a major area of resistance right now...we break it...possibly a nice bull rally which i will definetely be part of. we break down...a retest of the lower wall is only natural where again..direction will be determined. lets see now...


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: current.gif Size: 44 KB
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #40,070
  • Oct 19, 2008 8:56pm Oct 19, 2008 8:56pm
Quoting PipPilot
Pretty much Acumen's style with pivots and the bias (long or short) set by the pivot point (PP) on a 15M or 5M chart. But I augment this with a valid trendline (at least 3 touches; the more the better). I also use an indicator by TRO (you can search on him) that plots dynamic Fib's which I use to locate strong support (blue dots) and strong resistance (blue dots) on the same 5M and 15M charts. These levels are very similar to Keltner or Price channel indicators.

I only use ema's, stochs, or other oscillators and indicators for confirmation.
youre comments are truly appreciated
  • #40,071
  • Oct 19, 2008 8:58pm Oct 19, 2008 8:58pm
Quoting ak4x
I don't think most people really appreciated Bemacs post last week for what it was. ...

So you have to go back to past S/R levels for reference points, be they pysch levels, weekly pivots, whatever... The one thing the strongest S/R levels have in common (imo) is that they are horizontal in nature or gradually angled over weekly, monthly or even yearly retests...
Yeah, I don't just look at regular trendlines. I look at internal trendlines (trendlines that cut through price action) and congestion areas along with fibs and on multiple timeframes to find an entry and TP level. I'm looking for those levels that offer the best probability for a successful trade with minimal loss.
  • #40,072
  • Oct 19, 2008 9:00pm Oct 19, 2008 9:00pm
Quoting altrader
Sounds interesting. Just out of curiousity, what sort of risk to reward ratio do you use? Or do you use more of a dynamic risk to reward ratio based on what price is doing?
Sorry for the delayed reply, this was sitting in a separate browser window.

Lately, it's been more of a dynamic thing for these range entries as price has been range bound in a'rd a 300 pip channel. I don't always have a bottom in mind many times, as I've seen price drop FAR beyond my initial targets too many times. So as I've previously posted, I scale out, and set either a very generous TP or none at all, depending on the entry. That kind of thing tends to skew the R/R numbers I guess.

The higher (these days anyway as I'm still EU/EJ bearish) the entry, or rather closer to the high TF resistance levels I enter, the larger the order, and the smaller the scale outs. In other words... maybe 4 scale outs of 20% each leaving 20% to run several hundred or more pips. At some point, I may take another 10% off and then almost literally forget about the trade until it hits some arbitrary incredible pip number (500 to 1000 or more) or some serious price level. On EU, that would be a'rd the 1.30 level for now.

For instance, I keep forgetting that I still have a 15% EU short running from 1.4086 after closing the other +1.40 entry out on the Friday Smackdown at my 200sma weekly target for a'rd 700 something pips. There's a 50% EJ short from 39.24, and an 80% GY short from 178.50 also running. So a hard and fast R/R number would be hard to give you. Working numbers for the short term trades tho would be at least 2:1 or so I think. Less than that is a "why bother" for me unless I'm doing fixed pip scalps for a'rd 10-20 per trade between the BB's.

So yeah, Dynamic may be the best word to use right now. Like probably all of us, I've had to modify some things over the last couple months..
FUBAR...
  • #40,073
  • Oct 19, 2008 9:01pm Oct 19, 2008 9:01pm
Quoting psiholog
i will admit it...i got a little impatient and wanted to test the market. i thought it was breaking down so i said why not..try a little short...big oops there hah. no worries just the usual testing the ground at sunday open. in any case...we are in a major area of resistance right now...we break it...possibly a nice bull rally which i will definetely be part of. we break down...a retest of the lower wall is only natural where again..direction will be determined. lets see now...


Attachment
because you are breaking youre rules that you made for yourself,impatience is one of the hardest habits to get over in trading,
  • #40,074
  • Oct 19, 2008 9:03pm Oct 19, 2008 9:03pm
Quoting PipPilot
I also use an indicator by TRO (you can search on him) .
Whoa!! There's a blast from the past...
FUBAR...
  • #40,075
  • Oct 19, 2008 9:05pm Oct 19, 2008 9:05pm
Quoting psiholog
i will admit it...i got a little impatient and wanted to test the market. i thought it was breaking down so i said why not..try a little short...big oops there hah. no worries just the usual testing the ground at sunday open. in any case...we are in a major area of resistance right now...we break it...possibly a nice bull rally which i will definetely be part of. we break down...a retest of the lower wall is only natural where again..direction will be determined. lets see now...
3469 has held for an hour and a half at the upper trendline. I think a retest of the days open or the lower trendline before any breakout.
  • #40,076
  • Oct 19, 2008 9:09pm Oct 19, 2008 9:09pm
Quoting pipsfari
because you are breaking youre rules that you made for yourself,impatience is one of the hardest habits to get over in trading,
honestly i dont feel i did. my #1 indicator is gauging market sentiment and i felt at the time that the bull run up had no strength behind it which at the first sign of a break of the uptrend i wanted to jump on it...that candlestick was only a spike down though...still..no regrets i still think it was a good trade no matter what the outcome is

it is true that i said i will play breakout only and possibly broke that rule there..hmm...denial?....na...one of my mottos is when opportunities present themselves...jump on them..the market does not wait for my criteria i have to meet the criteria it makes
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #40,077
  • Oct 19, 2008 9:11pm Oct 19, 2008 9:11pm
Quoting ak4x
Whoa!! There's a blast from the past...
Yeah, isn't that the truth. He's over on Kreslik now. I cannot trade his short term scalp style, but I find some of his insights interesting not to mention his willingness to share free indicators.

Then again he got banned from here, so I'll make sure to be careful about bringing up his name.
  • #40,078
  • Oct 19, 2008 9:12pm Oct 19, 2008 9:12pm
Quoting PipPilot
I think a retest of the days open or the lower trendline before any breakout.
1hr 34sma also converging with that LTL as well right now. Price sandwiched into a MA/TL jungle, and no power to break out right now.

Gonna go watch TV.
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #40,079
  • Oct 19, 2008 9:15pm Oct 19, 2008 9:15pm
Quoting psiholog
honestly i dont feel i did. my #1 indicator is gauging market sentiment and i felt at the time that the bull run up had no strength behind it which at the first sign of a break of the uptrend i wanted to jump on it...that candlestick was only a spike down though...still..no regrets i still think it was a good trade no matter what the outcome is

it is true that i said i will play breakout only and possibly broke that rule there..hmm...denial?....na...one of my mottos is when opportunities present themselves...jump on them..the market does not wait for my criteria i have to meet the criteria it makes
follow youre instincts but when you make youre rules and break them if it works out you will tend to break other rules which will lead to chaos,so be careful
  • #40,080
  • Oct 19, 2008 9:20pm Oct 19, 2008 9:20pm
Quoting ak4x
Sorry for the delayed reply, this was sitting in a separate browser window.

Lately, it's been more of a dynamic thing for these range entries as price has been range bound in a'rd a 300 pip channel. I don't always have a bottom in mind many times, as I've seen price drop FAR beyond my initial targets too many times. So as I've previously posted, I scale out, and set either a very generous TP or none at all, depending on the entry. That kind of thing tends to skew the R/R numbers I guess.

The higher (these days anyway as I'm still EU/EJ bearish) the entry, or rather closer to the high TF resistance levels I enter, the larger the order, and the smaller the scale outs. In other words... maybe 4 scale outs of 20% each leaving 20% to run several hundred or more pips. At some point, I may take another 10% off and then almost literally forget about the trade until it hits some arbitrary incredible pip number (500 to 1000 or more) or some serious price level. On EU, that would be a'rd the 1.30 level for now.

For instance, I keep forgetting that I still have a 15% EU short running from 1.4086 after closing the other +1.40 entry out on the Friday Smackdown at my 200sma weekly target for a'rd 700 something pips. There's a 50% EJ short from 39.24, and an 80% GY short from 178.50 also running. So a hard and fast R/R number would be hard to give you. Working numbers for the short term trades tho would be at least 2:1 or so I think. Less than that is a \"why bother\" for me unless I'm doing fixed pip scalps for a'rd 10-20 per trade between the BB's.

So yeah, Dynamic may be the best word to use right now. Like probably all of us, I've had to modify some things over the last couple months..
That's a very comprehensive response--many thanks for that

I saw some of the results you posted the other day and they were really impressive. I like the idea of scaling in and out of trades. Money management is a tough gig to figure out but I'm getting closer.
375 traders viewing now