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EUR/JPY

  • #21
  • Oct 19, 2008 1:13pm Oct 19, 2008 1:13pm
Good morning, afternoon, evening to all global traders. Just getting ready for this week's open in 3 hrs. See you all in the markets.
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #22
  • Oct 19, 2008 1:16pm Oct 19, 2008 1:16pm
FXCapitalist. Thanks for starting this thread. I have been trading eur/usd on 5 and 15 min and the lack of price action has made it challinging at times. I have been looking for a different pair to trade. I do have a couple of questions. 1) If I trade on 5 min chart what would you suggest for a stop loss? 2) What is the lowest time frame do you think should be traded? Thanks and am looking forward to this thread!
  • #23
  • Oct 19, 2008 1:33pm Oct 19, 2008 1:33pm
Quoting cjd
FXCapitalist. Thanks for starting this thread. I have been trading eur/usd on 5 and 15 min and the lack of price action has made it challinging at times. I have been looking for a different pair to trade. I do have a couple of questions. 1) If I trade on 5 min chart what would you suggest for a stop loss? 2) What is the lowest time frame do you think should be traded? Thanks and am looking forward to this thread!
As a trader I never question the usage of a stop loss, above all else. I can go on and on about this subject, It's about how much pain you can take. I never have a stop lower than 20 ever on EURJPY that will just rip you out of the market faster than your order even coming through. The stop loss can be based on your risk tolerance and how much you risk per trade. If you're going to go for a sharp short term scalp then trade a bigger position with a tighter stop so it matches your risk profile or you can trade small at first and ease your way in and profit the risk away in which you add on to the current position when all the risk has been taken away from the trade and pyramid up or down. This is a more complex subject but you'll probably see it in action later. I like to build massive intraday positions that's how sometimes one can be up 10-20% in a good day if they planned their entries and exits well. As for timeframe, it can be traded in any fashion due to your expectancy in control, if you want to be in control all the time then trade the short ones such as the m1 and m5 if you dont want to burn yourself out minute by minute trade the m30 m60 or m240. All trends are timeframe specific and the smaller time frames are trends within larger timeframes. best regards.

Work on a system with an expectancy ratio of over 100% and stick to it. I will get into this more later.

-FXC
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #24
  • Oct 19, 2008 1:58pm Oct 19, 2008 1:58pm
Expectancy Ratio: Measures your trading model's performance in the current market conditions. A system that has an expectancy greater than 0% is profitable in the past and is unlikely to be profitable in the future. Thus we look for results in which the expectancy ratio is over 100% which states the trading model is profitable and successful in the current market conditions.

here is the simple equation
key:
W = Winners
T = Total Trades
w = win ratio
l = loss ratio
W' = Largest Winner
L' = Largest Loser
RR = Risk to Reward Ratio on all trading results
RRw' = Risk Reward Win Ratio
eXr = Expectancy Ratio

1.
(W/T)100 = w <--calculates win ratio
100 - w = l <--calcs loss ratio

2.
W'/L' = RR <--Risk to Reward calc

3.
RR x w = RRw' <--Risk Reward Win Ratio

4.
RRw' - l = eXr <--Expectancy Ratio

example:

(8 wins/12 trades)100 = 66.67% win ratio and 33.3% loss ratio

39.71/11.88 = 3.3425 RR on all trading results

3.3425 x 66.67% = 222.85% RR Win Ratio

222.85% - 33.33% = 189.51% eXr (expectancy ratio)

What this basically means that whatever trading model is being used it is quite profitable given the current market conditions and the parameters of the trading model should still be adhered to. This trader is still alive.

hope this rings some bells on how some people trade and their expected results.

Best Regards

-FXC

*I made this as simple as can be* for those that are excel savvy you can make a spreadsheet on this easily*
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #25
  • Oct 19, 2008 2:09pm Oct 19, 2008 2:09pm
Will there a GAP when the market open in 2 hrs time ?
  • #26
  • Oct 19, 2008 2:21pm Oct 19, 2008 2:21pm
The market will decide on which side of the bed it wants to fall out of.

-FXC
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #27
  • Oct 19, 2008 2:26pm Oct 19, 2008 2:26pm
It's stuck at 136.31 it should stir around 15-30 minutes. I will update on the move in case some of your brokers open late.
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #28
  • Edited 2:46pm Oct 19, 2008 2:27pm | Edited 2:46pm
nevermind make that 1 hr and 45 min. I wont be here for the open but ill check it later.
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #29
  • Oct 19, 2008 3:06pm Oct 19, 2008 3:06pm
FX Capitalist

Nice we have an EJ thread be looking to learn and contribute.
LISTEN TO MR FUNDAMENTAL AND MR TECHNICAL
  • #30
  • Oct 19, 2008 5:07pm Oct 19, 2008 5:07pm
Pair has retraced beyond 38 % from move up back in October of 2000.
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  • #31
  • Oct 19, 2008 5:09pm Oct 19, 2008 5:09pm
My techs show EJ in no mans land in the middle of this triangle. I am out at the moment.
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  • #32
  • Oct 19, 2008 5:25pm Oct 19, 2008 5:25pm
The pair could move to the X after first UTL has broken. About 60 Pips, but I will stay out till tomorrow.
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  • #33
  • Edited 6:21pm Oct 19, 2008 6:01pm | Edited 6:21pm
Didn't realize this was a different EJ thread from the other one, stumbled onto it...

Anyway, boring open after the last few weeks. I'm short 3 positions EJ from 39.25, 37.40, and a small Friday gap speculation entry from 36.26.

Bias is down, and not expecting much out of asian session, but surprise me please!! Fib is a 2hr swing showing the "almost" retraces to the 50% level. The fib low is within a few pips of the average 2hr LOWS from the 10th, except for the very last Friday close madness that spiked below and then right back up.

For that reason, I've shaded the 38% retrace level as well, as I believe it helps to validate the other fib levels even before the current low at 33.38 was in.

No idea what the opening direction will be, but I'm expecting a continued push down to at least the 79% as part of whatever does happen, so I'm leaving the lowest entry alone with a couple pips locked in for SL. No point in going negative on it atm, and if I had to say, I wouldn't be surprised to see a smallish headfake north to shake out the weak shorts first before moving on down.

Hardheads term is good.... no mans land at the moment. If I wasn't already in, I wouldn't bother.

Add: Altho Sunday pivots can be problematical, mine is 136.17 for the Daily
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #34
  • Oct 19, 2008 6:30pm Oct 19, 2008 6:30pm
Hi all

here is my chart...H4

just wanna ask if we breake above 1.37/1.37xx

what does that mean?
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  • #35
  • Oct 19, 2008 7:01pm Oct 19, 2008 7:01pm
Quoting ak4x
Didn't realize this was a different EJ thread from the other one, stumbled onto it...

Anyway, boring open after the last few weeks. I'm short 3 positions EJ from 39.25, 37.40, and a small Friday gap speculation entry from 36.26.

Bias is down, and not expecting much out of asian session, but surprise me please!! Fib is a 2hr swing showing the \"almost\" retraces to the 50% level. The fib low is within a few pips of the average 2hr LOWS from the 10th, except for the very last Friday close madness that spiked below and then right back up.

For that reason, I've shaded the 38% retrace level as well, as I believe it helps to validate the other fib levels even before the current low at 33.38 was in.

No idea what the opening direction will be, but I'm expecting a continued push down to at least the 79% as part of whatever does happen, so I'm leaving the lowest entry alone with a couple pips locked in for SL. No point in going negative on it atm, and if I had to say, I wouldn't be surprised to see a smallish headfake north to shake out the weak shorts first before moving on down.

Hardheads term is good.... no mans land at the moment. If I wasn't already in, I wouldn't bother.

Add: Altho Sunday pivots can be problematical, mine is 136.17 for the Daily

I am biased more to a slow upside...

Sonic
  • #36
  • Oct 19, 2008 7:13pm Oct 19, 2008 7:13pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
I am biased more to a slow upside...

Sonic
I agree. I too feels that this baby is going north today
  • #37
  • Oct 19, 2008 8:21pm Oct 19, 2008 8:21pm
First Strike for Monday Morning..Not bad for 1 hr job.

White :::: Open positions
Red::: SL line ( I put my SL few pips below the nearest double bottom)
Blue/Lite Blue :::: TP, Close positions (TP around resistance 1 lvl)

Sonic
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  • #38
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:44am Oct 20, 2008 12:44am
Im back, gonna eat then im in the markets. it did gap up slightly then filled it and resumed up. It might continue when Europe opens.


cheers
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #39
  • Oct 20, 2008 1:04am Oct 20, 2008 1:04am
You were right, and I was right on the nose staying out with my techs. After I got out of the gap trade which netted a modest 40 pips. I am glad I didn't take that short. The DPP proved strong as we got a nice bounce long off of it. Again, nice call sonic.

Jim

Quoting sonicdeejay
I am biased more to a slow upside...

Sonic
  • #40
  • Oct 20, 2008 1:14am Oct 20, 2008 1:14am
Blue arrow on my system gave a go around the same time of your entry, Sonic. Too bad I was asleep.

J
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