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  • #39,361
  • Oct 15, 2008 1:42am Oct 15, 2008 1:42am
Quoting big_pipin
is it just me or is eur/cad a real choppy pair to trade?
It is a carry trade. So watch movement on EURUSD and USDCAD.
  • #39,362
  • Oct 15, 2008 2:05am Oct 15, 2008 2:05am
Quoting big_pipin
Any takers on EUR/CAD ...6049 target this week.
Btw, my appetite bigger. looking at following targets:
a) 1.613
b) 1.661
c) 1.777 (ultimately)

I felt bearish abt commodities.. so should see some more weakness in CAD, AUD, NZD in mid term.

Edit : But then,I can be wrong..so trade as it goes
  • #39,363
  • Oct 15, 2008 2:20am Oct 15, 2008 2:20am
IT should be interesting to see the US figures. I don't think they'll surprise to the upside.

For that reason I'm long as for now.
  • #39,364
  • Oct 15, 2008 2:28am Oct 15, 2008 2:28am
Quoting _tlk_
IT should be interesting to see the US figures. I don't think they'll surprise to the upside.

For that reason I'm long as for now.
Sure , it will be timing for good movement will occur.
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #39,365
  • Oct 15, 2008 2:36am Oct 15, 2008 2:36am
The question now is which way are we going....I think going long is what am seeing now but need u experts opinion
  • #39,366
  • Oct 15, 2008 2:51am Oct 15, 2008 2:51am
Quoting orkinv
The question now is which way are we going....I think going long is what am seeing now but need u experts opinion
I think it's more bearish. Hm..
  • #39,367
  • Oct 15, 2008 3:00am Oct 15, 2008 3:00am
Quoting orkinv
The question now is which way are we going....I think going long is what am seeing now but need u experts opinion
I am not an expert....but i am bias long on EU now

edit : but should see range trading now until the big moment (after the US data)
  • #39,368
  • Oct 15, 2008 3:06am Oct 15, 2008 3:06am
Quoting orkinv
The question now is which way are we going....I think going long is what am seeing now but need u experts opinion
No expert here, just reading from the chart below, I would think that a break below the 1.3570 would confirm a downward channel towards 1st 1.3540 and 2nd, 1.3490.

On the other hand, a clear break above 1.3630 could indicate an upward continuation towards 1.3690 and 1.3768...

But it's important to note that for the last week (in particular) price action has taken a life of itself irregardless or the technical and fundemantal outlook... so, caution and tight SL's are in order here...

JK
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Prepare for the worst, hope for the best & live the moment...
  • #39,369
  • Oct 15, 2008 3:56am Oct 15, 2008 3:56am
alarm woke me right up on that one
i may regret it did i may not. after just getting stopped out before going to sleep (went one pip lower then my sl those bastards) and reopening another position right away...closed it for a nice 100pipper profit (60 extra that is )

anyways seeying the action now...and this is what i may regret...we reached an area of many intertwining resistances...resistance 3 at 1.3690...61.8% retracement since the last high...the upper wall of the current rising channel...the upper wall of the previous rising channel

a sell for a small retracement (scalp) seemed in order there. but eventually ill be screaming woof..woof...woof...who let the dogs loose...will rejoin the bull train soon enough (maybe 1.3630 or so if reached or a clear break of 1.3690)

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #39,370
  • Oct 15, 2008 4:19am Oct 15, 2008 4:19am
Quoting big_pipin
is it just me or is eur/cad a real choppy pair to trade?
Great pair! Was my favorite for long time. I lost handle on it long ago, however. Used to be a great option to the slow moving EURUSD, but since EURUSD is so much more active with the cheaper spread, EURUSD is just as good if not better pair.
  • #39,371
  • Oct 15, 2008 4:20am Oct 15, 2008 4:20am
to the long side around 1.36 handle, perhaps.
  • #39,372
  • Oct 15, 2008 4:29am Oct 15, 2008 4:29am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
to the long side around 1.36 handle, perhaps.
smart idea....i have decided to wait for the news for once...havent done so in ages!....current short is riding pretty well
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #39,373
  • Oct 15, 2008 4:36am Oct 15, 2008 4:36am
I don't know. After combing over the charts this AM, I might take my 2% for the day and just wait until tomorrow. Everything is kind of at dangerous levels for longs, as the idea that the potential for a double bottom is still lurking out there - not to mention even lower lows in the pair. with my trading style I have to wary of the big moves against me - it may be time to start using more Stop Losses, as we are at weird time.

On the other hand 1.3620 is 20SMA on hourly currently, which could be nice spring board to the upside...if it even gets that low. The moving average is inching up with every tick.

EDIT:We dancing around the 200 SMA on the daily...what's going to happen next?????
  • #39,374
  • Oct 15, 2008 4:44am Oct 15, 2008 4:44am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
I don't know. After combing over the charts this AM, I might take my 2% for the day and just wait until tomorrow. Everything is kind of at dangerous levels for longs, as the idea that the potential for a double bottom is still lurking out there - not to mention even lower lows in the pair. with my trading style I have to wary of the big moves against me - it may be time to start using more Stop Losses, as we are at weird time.

On the other hand 1.3620 is 20SMA on hourly currently, which could be nice spring board to the upside...if it even gets that low. The moving average is inching up with every tick.
i think we may tap it on a spike...if there is one thing channel analysis has taught me is all channels must end sometime...so before going higher the current up channel has to end ...lower wal break right now is at 1.3630...1.3630 was also previous high before this last move up and also currently 38.2% retracement for both previous high to low (yesterday ) and current low to high....1.3620 is very possible...it is where i will reconsider entry long...anyways to be seen
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #39,375
  • Oct 15, 2008 4:48am Oct 15, 2008 4:48am
i am so sleepy right now i dont know if what im saying makes sense so i am posting an updated chart...should explain better

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #39,376
  • Oct 15, 2008 5:27am Oct 15, 2008 5:27am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
I don't know. After combing over the charts this AM, I might take my 2% for the day and just wait until tomorrow. Everything is kind of at dangerous levels for longs, as the idea that the potential for a double bottom is still lurking out there - not to mention even lower lows in the pair. with my trading style I have to wary of the big moves against me - it may be time to start using more Stop Losses, as we are at weird time.

On the other hand 1.3620 is 20SMA on hourly currently, which could be nice spring board to the upside...if it even gets that low. The moving average is inching up with every tick.

EDIT:We dancing around the 200 SMA on the daily...what's going to happen next?????

I imagine you intended to reference the 200SMA on the hourly? We are a long way south of the 200SMA on the daily. Just wanted to clarify for all.

Trade well.
  • #39,377
  • Oct 15, 2008 6:03am Oct 15, 2008 6:03am
Intersting action, thinking no longs until 1.3490

The gap on sunday really mixed things up. May not test extreme lows but a retrad is in order I figure. Maybe slap some Fibs on there and look for entries...???

EDIT: Fibs come in at 1.3572, 1.3512 (50%) , 1.3451
  • #39,378
  • Oct 15, 2008 6:03am Oct 15, 2008 6:03am
amazing...just when you think you figured out whats going on...nope...things become as uncertain as ever. right now i see 3 things happening. 1)8 bear candlesticks in a row on the 15min chart...thats already excessive...it could be 11 in a row...to be seen. 2) we break those 2 lower walls...this thing will break down big time. 3) we break the upper wall of this temporary descending channel...we may see a bull run up to 1.3700 levels again.

i am currently long...willing to take the loss as its been a good morning to me but DO NOT RECOMMEND taking a side right now...too choppy

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Edit: ah great...bush is talking now too..should have stayed out...as homer simpson would say...DOH
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #39,379
  • Oct 15, 2008 6:12am Oct 15, 2008 6:12am
I will wait DOW open and short EUR/USD, will see
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #39,380
  • Oct 15, 2008 6:12am Oct 15, 2008 6:12am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
Intersting action, thinking no longs until 1.3490

The gap on sunday really mixed things up. May not test extreme lows but a retrad is in order I figure. Maybe slap some Fibs on there and look for entries...???

EDIT: Fibs come in at 1.3572, 1.3512 (50%) , 1.3451
i wouldnt rely too much at the moment on longer term fibs. for example...last weeks high to low puts 61.8% at 1.3580 or so....in other words fib theory says retracement more then 61.8%=100% retracement..we have not seen that yet even though 61.8% still acts as support
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
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