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  • #39,241
  • Oct 14, 2008 2:26pm Oct 14, 2008 2:26pm
Quoting scexglobal
Hi acumen,

I know you are a good trader and saying that means a lot.
Personally, I have only been holding on to some longer term unleveraged trades in the forex (some are hedges). But even there the long term trend is becoming hazy. I long for the smooth weekly E/U waves.

The only thing that is really defining trends in the forex is: deleveraging & flight to quality. But these moves are fast and furious!
This is has been one ugly day.

I haven't traded a lot this week so I thought I jump back in.

I was up about 30... now it's 12... and now I'm done for the day.

Headed downstairs to kick one of the dogs.

m
  • #39,242
  • Oct 14, 2008 2:27pm Oct 14, 2008 2:27pm
Quoting psiholog
warning warning this is pure speculation
the dow has been slowly going down all day long. the last hour of trading will bring a bull rally and with that drag the eur/usd up with it!

speculation aside....we are very close to the bottom wall of that uptrend again....i dont see a reason for the trend to end now...i am currently long there just for kicks...honestly i have no idea what will happen next


Attachment
I'm in with ya for the ride...just a small position...we can either cheer or cry together!
  • #39,243
  • Oct 14, 2008 2:29pm Oct 14, 2008 2:29pm
Quoting TradeWell
I'm in with ya for the ride...just a small position...we can either cheer or cry together!


considering the choppiness lately...this is one of the most clear signals...you do know what happens if that wall gets broken though right?..mega


all im saying is be prepared to switch sides hehe...thats what im doing
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #39,244
  • Oct 14, 2008 2:31pm Oct 14, 2008 2:31pm
Quoting acumen
A day at a time... a trade at a time.

Two losses in a single day and I'm done.

Mike
Is this a sort of 'daily stop loss'? I'm looking for a discipline in that way. never find something to learn on books about that. which is your daily stop loss actually?
  • #39,245
  • Oct 14, 2008 2:38pm Oct 14, 2008 2:38pm
Quoting psiholog


considering the choppiness lately...this is one of the most clear signals...you do know what happens if that wall gets broken though right?..mega


all im saying is be prepared to switch sides hehe...thats what im doing
Yes, in fact I was in a short position that I closed for a small loss just before I read your message. I was anticipating a possible breakdown. tight SL
  • #39,246
  • Oct 14, 2008 2:53pm Oct 14, 2008 2:53pm
i reposted just to show clearly on 5min price action..more accurate then 15min at the moment. breakout walls of triangle are clear...confirmation to the downside is a break of the longer term lower wall uptrend...confirmation to upside is break of 1.3695 or so


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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #39,247
  • Oct 14, 2008 3:00pm Oct 14, 2008 3:00pm
Quoting psiholog
thank you acumen and thank you ak4x for making me feel better about my uncertainty as well. what i have been doing since i began trading and worked so effectively...recently....useless...if i stay above 0 i am lucky (as happened in the past 24 hours)...if i think i know whats going on i dont....all that makes sense right now....a cold beer and fantasies about where i need to go yet cant get there yet
Don’t worry PSi, if I tell you that I took 32 trades in the last two weeks, most on AUD/USD, you will say Cobra is crazy, usually I take more than 50 a day.
Even Algirdas is getting out of ideas, nothing is working well at the moment.

This is the best time to have vacation of forex until normal market conditions come back.
  • #39,248
  • Oct 14, 2008 3:10pm Oct 14, 2008 3:10pm
Quoting psiholog
can no do sir...you see...i am facing an uncertain future...if i dont start rolling in the money by the end of january....who knows what will happen ....i must find logic in the chaos and master it!...short deadline to independence...or impending doom...na no negativity ill make it i know i will...starting with winning the ibfx monthly contest in november...cant wait....
Chaos doesn’t have logic mostly but I guess until the contest starts things will get more guessable and I’m almost sure you are the winner.
Are there chances to follow it up during it runs?


BTW, Hi Suntrader, wellcome back.
.
  • #39,249
  • Oct 14, 2008 3:23pm Oct 14, 2008 3:23pm
Quoting cobraforex
Chaos doesn’t have logic mostly but I guess until the contest starts things will get more guessable and I’m almost sure you are the winner.
Are there chances to follow it up during it runs?


BTW, Hi Suntrader, wellcome back.
.
yes sir...go to ibfx.com and check contest results..current standings...my best result was in april...i was #12 ..my nickname there is predictor...yea...percentages are based on what % you increased your account from start of month to the end of it


Edit: on another note...if this 15m candlestick closes below the uptrend line and the next 15min one does the same....game over long =/
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #39,250
  • Oct 14, 2008 3:25pm Oct 14, 2008 3:25pm
There is a nice H&S on 30M chart, under normal conditions would be trade able, let's see if it pass 1.3610.
  • #39,251
  • Oct 14, 2008 3:32pm Oct 14, 2008 3:32pm
Seems to be a strong support around 1.3630.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #39,252
  • Oct 14, 2008 3:41pm Oct 14, 2008 3:41pm
im still feeling bullish. this last move has been so slow and casual..like it was almost undetected by the "big guys" that it doesn't feel like a break down. instead what i think happened is extend the lower wall just a bit more..take out stops along the way (not me just yet)...and load up for the next bull run up to the upper wall...this hourly close may determine things...to be seen

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Edit:reading my own post made me realize im trying to make the market act as i want it to...oh god i need a break....ill be back...whenever
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #39,253
  • Oct 14, 2008 3:48pm Oct 14, 2008 3:48pm
i think its end of the retracement. And we re going down. But that is just my opinion.
I am back. Actually, I never left...
  • #39,254
  • Oct 14, 2008 3:54pm Oct 14, 2008 3:54pm
hm
I am back. Actually, I never left...
  • #39,255
  • Oct 14, 2008 3:56pm Oct 14, 2008 3:56pm
Quoting BoredToLoose
Your 1.3425 Yesterday was too optimistic!
1.3615 was support twice today.
Price can break that support easily, but now I am Neutral with possibility to see a narrow channel to the upside!
After big news, if goes North 1.3770, South 1.3515.

Thank you for your posts!
You doing good,....... today was not my day
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  • #39,256
  • Oct 14, 2008 4:08pm Oct 14, 2008 4:08pm
Quoting psiholog
Edit:reading my own post made me realize im trying to make the market act as i want it to...oh god i need a break....ill be back...whenever
Have a coffee my friend, you are not the only one that is confused


Algirdas, saw your blog, did you want to say: SELL at 1.3765 or 1.3665?
1.3765 I see as a high sell target.

Thanks
  • #39,257
  • Oct 14, 2008 4:14pm Oct 14, 2008 4:14pm
Quoting taragula
i think its end of the retracement. And we re going down. But that is just my opinion.
No my friend, this is not going down stairs. Replacement is finished and it is going back up.
  • #39,258
  • Oct 14, 2008 4:18pm Oct 14, 2008 4:18pm
Quoting P51_Group
No my friend, this is not going down stairs. Replacement is finished and it is going back up.
I think its either going to do one of three things:
1. Go North
2. Go South
3. Stay Level

  • #39,259
  • Oct 14, 2008 4:21pm Oct 14, 2008 4:21pm
Quoting Epipany
I think its either going to do one of three things:
1. Go North
2. Go South
3. Stay Level

And...I was right!
  • #39,260
  • Oct 14, 2008 4:24pm Oct 14, 2008 4:24pm
Quoting cobraforex
Have a coffee my friend, you are not the only one that is confused


Algirdas, saw your blog, did you want to say: SELL at 1.3765 or 1.3665?
1.3765 I see as a high sell target.

Thanks
Today I'm really confused, thees days I see just one corealation, if DOW goes 150(+ ) EUR/USD Long, if DOW goes 150 (minus) EUR/USD Short
Finally I see suport 1.3615 if breaks 1.3497,,,,,,,, or visa versa ressitance 1.3765
But how to trade I do not know at all.
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