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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #1,021
  • Oct 13, 2008 1:11am Oct 13, 2008 1:11am
Quoting Islander
Here's my chart - loads of signals available - easy to see the first buy as price held just under the 700 level - also the daily pivot, followed by a nice run up to the R1 at 7220, supported by the aqua 34 ema

Then the pull back to the start of the DZ - the 38% level for another Buy.

This moove failed just under 7200, so we have a lower high, setting up for a sell......now what will happen in the DZ......
Excellent analysis and trades Islander!
Life is a journey... So is trading.
  • #1,022
  • Oct 13, 2008 2:12am Oct 13, 2008 2:12am
Quoting fx1dr3r
Excellent analysis and trades Islander!
Thanks FX1 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Looking at my 15m and hourly charts I see that the volume is lower than the past few days and with the US on holiday I'm thinking that we may have some consolidation whilst waiting for news / rumours from the all day IMF meeting....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,023
  • Edited 4:58am Oct 13, 2008 4:53am | Edited 4:58am
Here are some trades as I got back on my screen. The first one is a 76.4% retracement. Cable made a higher swing high after the bounce off the rising TL. Bought after price crossed above the tweezer top. TP was placed and hit at the confluence of R1-1.7220 and psyche level-1.7220. 2nd trade is after another 76.4%. Bought after price crossed above the 3rd candle in the higher swing high formation. TP was placed at and hit at 100% extension. As I type this price is still rising.
Attached Images
Life is a journey... So is trading.
  • #1,024
  • Oct 13, 2008 5:27am Oct 13, 2008 5:27am
Quoting fx1dr3r
Here are some trades as I got back on my screen. The first one is a 76.4% retracement. Cable made a higher swing high after the bounce off the rising TL. Bought after price crossed above the tweezer top. TP was placed and hit at the confluence of R1-1.7220 and psyche level-1.7220. 2nd trade is after another 76.4%. Bought after price crossed above the 3rd candle in the higher swing high formation. TP was placed at and hit at 100% extension. As I type this price is still rising.
Hi fx1dr3r, I'd have one question. In the 2nd trade above, why did you assume, that after the retracement the price will go up? For me it is difficult to recognize if the rising candle isn't only retracement during the fall. Is the pierce pattern on the fibo level so powerful? Another aspect for me for assuming the fall, would be that price make a resistance around 1.7275 with couple of tails and didn't broke it a few candles earlier. Why did you assume that it would go even higher? Thanks a lot for answer. I hope I explained my problem clear.
  • #1,025
  • Oct 13, 2008 5:35am Oct 13, 2008 5:35am
Quoting fx1dr3r
Here are some trades as I got back on my screen. The first one is a 76.4% retracement. Cable made a higher swing high after the bounce off the rising TL. Bought after price crossed above the tweezer top. TP was placed and hit at the confluence of R1-1.7220 and psyche level-1.7220. 2nd trade is after another 76.4%. Bought after price crossed above the 3rd candle in the higher swing high formation. TP was placed at and hit at 100% extension. As I type this price is still rising.
Although the volume is still low, the rally has continued and I've placed a limit order to close my remaining longs just under the 7400 level - Fridays high and todays R2 all all in that area....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,026
  • Oct 13, 2008 5:48am Oct 13, 2008 5:48am
Quoting Tomik1701
Hi fx1dr3r, I'd have one question. In the 2nd trade above, why did you assume, that after the retracement the price will go up? For me it is difficult to recognize if the rising candle isn't only retracement during the fall. Is the pierce pattern on the fibo level so powerful? Another aspect for me for assuming the fall, would be that price make a resistance around 1.7275 with couple of tails and didn't broke it a few candles earlier. Why did you assume that it would go even higher? Thanks a lot for answer. I hope I explained my problem clear.
Hi Tomik1701. In the 2nd trade, after the almost 76.4% retracement, price made a higher swing low which means that the previous uptrend is still intact. There's a high probability that the uptrend will continue. I placed my TP above the previous swing high because the resistance in the previous swing high is not that strong considering the absence of a visual resistance from previous hours/days, pivot level and .xx50/.xx00 psyche level. Although there is a .xx80 psyche level above the previous swing high. But I consider this type of psyche level to be weak unless it has a confluence with a long term visual S/R and/ pivot level. Hope this helps.
Life is a journey... So is trading.
  • #1,027
  • Oct 13, 2008 5:49am Oct 13, 2008 5:49am
Quoting Islander
Although the volume is still low, the rally has continued and I've placed a limit order to close my remaining longs just under the 7400 level - Fridays high and todays R2 all all in that area....
Looks like you're limit order has been hit. Price has touched the psyche level 1.7400 in my chart.
Life is a journey... So is trading.
  • #1,028
  • Oct 13, 2008 6:05am Oct 13, 2008 6:05am
Quoting fx1dr3r
Looks like you're limit order has been hit. Price has touched the psyche level 1.7400 in my chart.
Yes, it was http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif - as it was overbought and I also saw dropping momentum on my 1 min chart I took a small cheeky sell and pirated a few more pips http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

Now I'll have a break - whilst I do have a buy signal from the last pull back off my 1 min chart, with a range so far today of 485 pips I'll pass.

I'll be more tempted to take another sell if this mini push up fails aroung the 400 level.....TWT
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,029
  • Oct 13, 2008 8:20pm Oct 13, 2008 8:20pm
Quoting fx1dr3r
Hi Tomik1701. In the 2nd trade, after the almost 76.4% retracement, price made a higher swing low which means that the previous uptrend is still intact. There's a high probability that the uptrend will continue. I placed my TP above the previous swing high because the resistance in the previous swing high is not that strong considering the absence of a visual resistance from previous hours/days, pivot level and .xx50/.xx00 psyche level. Although there is a .xx80 psyche level above the previous swing high. But I consider this type of psyche level to be weak unless it has a confluence with a long term visual S/R and/ pivot level. Hope this helps.
Thanks fx1dr3r for explaining your point of view.
  • #1,030
  • Edited Oct 14, 2008 12:05am Oct 13, 2008 11:16pm | Edited Oct 14, 2008 12:05am
GM All - a big rally in the Asian Session, I have pulled two sets of fibs, the narrowerfrom the low of 1.7426 to the high at 7555.

This gives a potential pull back Decision Zone of 7506 down to 7475 which suggest a bounce off the 7500 area.

The second fibs start from the 7306 low and allow for a pull back to the 7400 area.

Lets see which is used.....

Edit: Narrow Range fibs discarded - looking at 7400 area and London Open
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,031
  • Edited 1:27am Oct 14, 2008 12:26am | Edited 1:27am
Price didnt get down to 7400, stalling around 7420.

Long from 7440 - break and upturn in 1m 34ema

Edit: exited on limit order on spike to 7550 level
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,032
  • Oct 14, 2008 1:42am Oct 14, 2008 1:42am
Here's my chart for the trade. I was hoping for a spike down to the 7400 level -also a fib 62% retrace off my 5 min. As that didnt happen I watched the 3 lows in the 720 area and then used the 34 ema as a buy level as it turned up.

Then 34 then acted as support and was joined by the 5m 34 ema - here the 170 ema

I'm also keeping an eye on the action in the Euro & Swissy and using them as filters.

Now I'll watch the 7500 area for a possible re-entry - that falls nicely in the DZ of my latest fib drawn over this range. The 5m 34ema - here as the 170 - is currently at 7497....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oct 14 im 0830.gif Size: 17 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,033
  • Oct 14, 2008 2:44am Oct 14, 2008 2:44am
I've been a little busy this last few days, but I've managed to squeeze this one in this morning. I noticed the bullish piercing candle just above the psych-line, with the 34ema supplying a nice additional support line. I entered just above the next psych-line, and I was happy to take a nice profit of around 30 pips. Nice and simple.
Attached Image
  • #1,034
  • Oct 14, 2008 7:12am Oct 14, 2008 7:12am
Just caught this nice opportunity on eur/usd. A really distinctive Dark Cloud Cover candle right on the 34ema led to an entry just under the low of the green candle preceding the DCC candle. The entry was also just under the 0.20 psych-line, but my exit was way too early, I'm afraid. Price is dropping like a stone as I type this. I guess I was a little intimidated by the fact that price started heading back up to the 0.00 psych line, so I jumped ship. All part of the learning procedure, I guess.
Attached Image
  • #1,035
  • Oct 14, 2008 8:11am Oct 14, 2008 8:11am
The pull back just below 7500 was into the buy area # 1 that I mentioned in my earlier post. That was good for 100 pips - I was out!

The lower high at # 2 was a clear sell and the long wicked spinning top at #3 confirmed an exit, or even a buy which was then held around the 34 ema.

The second attempt on the 500 level at #4 was a buy on the failure to follow through after a long - 36 pip - red candle - I generally watch to see what happens half way up these candles - or drill down to the 1 min.

I got in at 530 and exited at 555 in the spike above the 550 confluence of levels at #5. I think I'll call it a day...BFN
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oct 14 5m 1500.gif Size: 16 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,036
  • Oct 14, 2008 9:07am Oct 14, 2008 9:07am
Islander........nice charts and analysis, mate.

Maybe see you tomorrow. TTFN.
  • #1,037
  • Oct 14, 2008 11:38pm Oct 14, 2008 11:38pm
GM All - the daily pivot is at 7452, so that's a great area to trade off - I got long just before the Frankfurt Open as price bounced up from there after a 15 pip pull back. Exited as price stalled around 490 and then went short as price broke the 1m 34 ema and closed on a limit order at the DP - a nice start to my day.....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Now to see what the Brits do at the London Open.......
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,038
  • Oct 14, 2008 11:52pm Oct 14, 2008 11:52pm
Chart for the post above.

Now cosolidating around 475, waiting for LO
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oct 15 1m 0640.gif Size: 18 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,039
  • Edited 12:32am Oct 15, 2008 12:06am | Edited 12:32am
Short from 7465 as price was held under falling 1m 34 ema....

Edit: a drop to the next sweet spot / psych level at 7400 would be nice.....stop to 7455....

Edit: taken partials at 7435 - euro's turning up and swissy down....stop to 7445 on remainder

Edit: remainder closed on stop.....now for the next signal......

Edit: that was + 22 on the first buy, + 16 on the first sell then + 30 & +20 on this last sell.

There was a buy as price broke up again thru the 450 / 452 level at say 460, BUT I dont like so many quick reversals and I didnt see confirmation from Euro & Swissy, so I'm still flat....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,040
  • Oct 15, 2008 12:59am Oct 15, 2008 12:59am
That bounce failed at the 7480 level - a lower high by 2 pips which was the alert to a possible sell which I took as price again broke the down turning 1m 34 ema - sold at 7461, partial profits taken after the tweezers / rail road tracks which failed to make a new low.

It would be much easier if the levels were back in play, but at present price is just bouncing around the DP / 7450 level, so I'm trading off the 1m 34ema and takin early profits till a decent move starts - probably after the UK news due out in 30 mins...

Edit: remainder closed on stop for +10.....time for a coffee break

Edit: the last low was held by a clear rising trend line on the 5 min - there is also a falling TL forming a wedge centered on the 7450 level!
Trading Levels with WRBs
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