If there IS a channel forming for today, I see one between 3672 and 3560 (unless we break 3560 right now)
- #39,082
- Oct 13, 2008 10:40am Oct 13, 2008 10:40am
People..Another two cents:
The media, politicians, and major Investment Giants have not only continually said, but have also demostrated that we are in a period like none other. Even compared to the great depression, this market crisis might turn out VERY different. The reason I believe is this:
America is in at a major point in its definition as a continuing World Power. Its is quote unquote at the "end of its reign" and is expected to tumble. it is also in the process of rebirth...(awaiting the new presidential election)
with this said, analysis based on 34 month cycles and yearly trends can be thrown out for the next major DEFINING years.
We all know that any and everything affects the market nowadays... dont forget terrorism, the world is too unstable to predict.
IMO, just go along with the current BUZZ and hope youre not too late....otr STAY OUT.
T.S.
- #39,083
- Oct 13, 2008 10:48am Oct 13, 2008 10:48am
Thank you for your feedback, good thing I am long this pair 1.3475 60M and 5M and long since Friday 1.3400, but according to this thread maybe I should close these???
1. you have the capital and have dedicated your account to a 10+ yr long position
2. you see the bottom of a channel and are in for a quick 50-100pip scalp
3. you beleive that somehow the last 3 months push towards a weak euro is just a glitch and will quickly reverse.
if you dont believe any of these 3 statements, then short is the way to go. To me, Its not worth going long for a MAX(150+) at best, that is unless again......refer to statement 3..
- #39,086
- Oct 13, 2008 10:56am Oct 13, 2008 10:56am
There are only 3 reasons to go long in my opinon right now:
1. you have the capital and have dedicated your account to a 10+ yr long position
2. you see the bottom of a channel and are in for a quick 50-100pip scalp
3. you beleive that somehow the last 3 months push towards a weak euro is just a glitch and will quickly reverse.
if you dont believe any of these 3 statements, then short is the way to go. To me, Its not worth going long for a MAX(150+) at best, that is unless again......refer to statement 3..
T.S.
- #39,088
- Oct 13, 2008 11:04am Oct 13, 2008 11:04am
Got it. Well, my positions i had open long at 3400 and 3475 i closed for 165 and 90 pips of profit. So now what???? Wher would you come in...
Wait for another test of 3672 if it doesnt break, then SHORT!!!!!
remember patience is key
- #39,089
- Oct 13, 2008 11:06am Oct 13, 2008 11:06am
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: TARFU... | 7,015 Posts
Elliot Wave Theory
short version, I'm barely aware of EW theory, just not familiar with the terminology and wave labels you're using. no worries. fascinating stuff.
FUBAR...
- #39,091
- Oct 13, 2008 11:12am Oct 13, 2008 11:12am
thanks. had a reply all done, and pc crashed just as i hit the sunmit button.
short version, I'm barely aware of EW theory, just not familiar with the terminology and wave labels you're using. no worries. fascinating stuff.
T.S.
- #39,092
- Edited 11:47am Oct 13, 2008 11:17am | Edited 11:47am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
- #39,095
- Edited 12:14pm Oct 13, 2008 11:52am | Edited 12:14pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: TARFU... | 7,015 Posts
Thank you for your feedback, good thing I am long this pair 1.3475 60M and 5M and long since Friday 1.3400, but according to this thread maybe I should close these???
If goal is to maximize daily, weekly, or monthly profit %, (not measured in pips), then focus is entirely different. Scaling out profits secures them and not subject to reversal. My only eu trade for the day so far was short 3 minis at 3652 per previous posts.
I took 20% off at first Support level on short TF's, and another 10% off a'rd the psych level figure of 3500 for a'rd 150 pips. So 2 lots running and I have a 150 pip cushion for the retrace I expect off the figure. But the 2hr trend is currently down on my indi's, so I'll stop in now and then and check my one trade for the day with little to no stress.
This has turned into a trend trade entry that will get scaled out gradually over expected price points (hopefully) vs a high yield scalp or short term trade. As a trade diminishes in size due to scale out, it no longer matters as much to me where it gets taken out, at TP or +3 or whetever other number I change that to. Some of the really big pip trades have traveled 300 to 800 pips. SL might be 20 or 40 or whatever nice round number looks good above some high TF Resistance level.
That same trade however might also be down to .10 to .20% of original order size. So it no longer really matters much where it closes as all the significant profit is booked. If I think a major trend change has taken place, I change the SL accordingly and call it all good.
So a question to think about... If you had been scaling out those same longs according to some schedule that works for you, how concerned would you be about closing it now if 70 to 90% of that trade had already been banked up a'rd the session high so far of 3620ish...?
2hr update to previous chart below...
FUBAR...
- #39,096
- Oct 13, 2008 12:04pm Oct 13, 2008 12:04pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Self-proclaimed psychologist | 3,179 Posts
wow i wake up to this massive reversal. i hope you guys locked in profits off that 1.5575 level at 75pips+....
in any case here is where we stand now...a clear descending channel with clear breakout points...to the downside is 1.3455 (which i highly doubt) and to the upside 1.3545. we could even end up trending sideways now until asian session. the channel breakout walls are clear though
in any case here is where we stand now...a clear descending channel with clear breakout points...to the downside is 1.3455 (which i highly doubt) and to the upside 1.3545. we could even end up trending sideways now until asian session. the channel breakout walls are clear though
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
- #39,097
- Oct 13, 2008 12:10pm Oct 13, 2008 12:10pm
- Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,722 Posts
Here's another way of looking at profit. If goal is to maxiimize profit on every trade, then your focus is necessarily on spotting potential trend changes on each trade and distinguishing them from valid retraces that may continue on, that makes for tuff sleddin in these times.
If goal is to maximize daily, weekly, or monthly profit %, (not measured in pips), then focus is entirely different. Scaling out profits secures them and not subject to reversal. My only eu trade for the day so far was short 3 minis at 3652 per previous posts.
I took 20% off at first Support level on short TF's, and another 10% off a'rd the psych level figure of 3500 for a'rd 150 pips. So 2 lots running and I have a 150 pip cushion for the retrace I expect off the figure. But the trend is down on my indi's for now so I'll stop in now and then and check my one trade for the day with little to no stress.
This has turned into a trend trade entry that will get scaled out gradually over expected price points (hopefully) vs a high yield scalp or short term trade. As a trade diminishes in size due to scale out, it no longer matters as much to me where it gets taken out, at TP or +3 or whetever other number I change that to. Some of the really big pip trades have traveled 300 to 800 pips. SL might be 20 or 40 or whatever nice round number looks good above some high TF Resistance level.
That same trade however might also be down to .10 to .20% of original order size. So it no longer really matters much where it closes as all the significant profit is booked. If I think a major trend change has taken place, I change the SL accordingly and call it all good.
So a question to think about... If you had been scaling out those same longs according to some schedule that works for you, how concerned would you be about closing it now if 70 to 90% of that trade had already been banked up a'rd the session high so far of 3620ish...?
2hr update to previous chart below...
Ed
Up or down, gimme a ticket
- #39,098
- Oct 13, 2008 12:11pm Oct 13, 2008 12:11pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: TARFU... | 7,015 Posts
So now what???? Wher would you come in...
I wouldnt... I would say be patient...
Seriously, no more new position trades for me until full NY open tomorrow. Scalps never included of course...
Gonna go do some handyman work for the widows...
TS... you got good pips...
Hang on to 'em bro.
FUBAR...
- #39,100
- Edited 12:59pm Oct 13, 2008 12:45pm | Edited 12:59pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: TARFU... | 7,015 Posts
oh i'm gonna regret this post....
look at at the 1-5m eu 3520ish level... look at ej at the 3680ish level... I'm taking a SMALL short w/ tight stop (15 pips) for 20 pips or so... entry demonstration purposes only. please be careful, or just watch is better. i'm in the green on other trades so it's house money until I bank it... then it's mine.
crap. accidentally posted this on the gy thread first.. DON"T ENTER AT THIS POINT on my say so anyway unless it's demo, already took some profit at 10 on the EJ trade, eu is hung up.
added later: ej half at off at 10 then Stopped out at +1 on remainder. kind of a fizzle. probably go south now, but not at any loss. that's how I scalp. it's not about what i didn't make, it's about what i didn't lose...
3445 is 34ema on 1hr eu.. break of that and the eu portion is probably toast, so I may get to demonstrate a loser exit as well.
If nothing else, this proves scalping and posting is a REALLY bad idea
look at at the 1-5m eu 3520ish level... look at ej at the 3680ish level... I'm taking a SMALL short w/ tight stop (15 pips) for 20 pips or so... entry demonstration purposes only. please be careful, or just watch is better. i'm in the green on other trades so it's house money until I bank it... then it's mine.
crap. accidentally posted this on the gy thread first.. DON"T ENTER AT THIS POINT on my say so anyway unless it's demo, already took some profit at 10 on the EJ trade, eu is hung up.
added later: ej half at off at 10 then Stopped out at +1 on remainder. kind of a fizzle. probably go south now, but not at any loss. that's how I scalp. it's not about what i didn't make, it's about what i didn't lose...
3445 is 34ema on 1hr eu.. break of that and the eu portion is probably toast, so I may get to demonstrate a loser exit as well.
If nothing else, this proves scalping and posting is a REALLY bad idea
FUBAR...