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  • #38,941
  • Oct 12, 2008 12:43pm Oct 12, 2008 12:43pm
Quoting kasper
where are you guys seeing these numbers?
try this one m8

http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes.htm
  • #38,942
  • Edited 1:33pm Oct 12, 2008 12:58pm | Edited 1:33pm
Quoting Tmac

did you guys not see and understand the intervention that happened?Why do you think that happened?
Why is dollar up - Because of the usual reasons of supply and demand. Why is there suddenly a global demand for dollar at this kind of period when all the problems originated in the us? That's the important question.

It's also worth asking why does dollar value correlate *negatively* to DOW? That's the real million dollar question because that correlation makes absolutely no sense. Also all the bad news releases from the US seemed to have an opposite effect than expected, ie the dollar only got stronger even though at the same time euro zone releases were better than expected. I was thinking that there must have been a coordinated intervention but even that seemed odd because I just didn't understand how they could do it every time worse news came from the US and why would the central banks agree on this because FED on itself doesn't have enough power to do this directly (via Exchange rate stabilization fund). After the following article it all just started to make sense. See from "why so short".

http://www.reuters.com/article/reute...BrandChannel=0

Quote
In the simplified example of a 50 percent writedown of a $2 billion asset, the notional European bank will end up with a $1 billion dollar net short position -- one its auditors will require it to cover by buying dollars to avoid the exposure.

As the dollar has surged about 15 percent against the euro since troughing in July, the euro size of the exposure has grown -- and the need to buy dollars to close that gap has merely accelerated its rally.

Hopes that all those pressures might abate as banks' third-quarter accounting ended last month have been already been replaced with gloom about fourth quarter refinancing needs -- further underlining dollar demand.

Credit Suisse said it expects European banks to face significant net redemptions of dollar debt through the final quarter -- with maturities of their U.S. dollar bonds particularly high in October. This must be met with dollar cash.
Ask yourself what happens to the dollar value after the US has bottomed and writedowns have been done.

I don't claim there are not problems in europe too, there certainly are, but EURUSD (or any other dollar pair) is a pair so we'll have to try to estimate where the problems are the biggest.

ps. I can be totally wrong about this but this is what I'm betting my money on..
  • #38,943
  • Oct 12, 2008 1:47pm Oct 12, 2008 1:47pm
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  • #38,944
  • Oct 12, 2008 1:52pm Oct 12, 2008 1:52pm
Quoting BoredToLoose
oh man. that's insanity. so .. since the price is already quoted higher than last close. does that mean we'll most likely have a gap upwards? o_O
  • #38,945
  • Oct 12, 2008 1:55pm Oct 12, 2008 1:55pm
I was long on EURUSD before the weekend. Now it shot up..and I got 50 pips
  • #38,946
  • Oct 12, 2008 2:05pm Oct 12, 2008 2:05pm
Quoting BoredToLoose

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  • #38,947
  • Oct 12, 2008 2:21pm Oct 12, 2008 2:21pm
Quoting misterboy
I was long on EURUSD before the weekend. Now it shot up..and I got 50 pips
LOL, you got nothing till market opens
Don't chase the market, Let the market come to you
  • #38,948
  • Oct 12, 2008 2:29pm Oct 12, 2008 2:29pm
Quoting Tmac
LOL, you got nothing till market opens
Im on a OANDA demo account, not live. So dont know if it works differently if you're live.
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  • #38,949
  • Oct 12, 2008 2:32pm Oct 12, 2008 2:32pm
Quoting Tmac
LOL, you got nothing till market opens
If you can trade with those numbers, it's open and with oanda you can. Huge jump from the friday - 1.3563/1.35781
  • #38,950
  • Oct 12, 2008 2:33pm Oct 12, 2008 2:33pm
ofcourse u can, i got my 50 my self
its just money
  • #38,951
  • Oct 12, 2008 2:34pm Oct 12, 2008 2:34pm
Quoting misterboy
Im on a OANDA demo account, not live. So dont know if it works differently if you're live.

On a live account you can trade this time of day but the spread's a killer
  • #38,952
  • Oct 12, 2008 2:38pm Oct 12, 2008 2:38pm
Shorted eur/aud at 2.0800 Friday. Closed 2/3 of position at 2.0400 moments ago on Oanda live.
Warning, lack of trading is dangerous to your survival......
  • #38,953
  • Oct 12, 2008 2:38pm Oct 12, 2008 2:38pm
Quoting knuckledrag
On a live account you can trade this time of day but the spread's a killer
Right now on OANDA its like 15 pips. But I got in on Friday and closed the trade today
  • #38,954
  • Oct 12, 2008 2:48pm Oct 12, 2008 2:48pm
Quoting knuckledrag
On a live account you can trade this time of day but the spread's a killer
Even with that spread, it has jumped nearly 200 pips. For this kind of gap, even the wildest spread is nothing serious.
  • #38,955
  • Oct 12, 2008 2:50pm Oct 12, 2008 2:50pm
guess gap is up. completely not expected
  • #38,956
  • Oct 12, 2008 2:58pm Oct 12, 2008 2:58pm
Quoting kasper
guess gap is up. completely not expected
Hmm, quite possibly over 200 pips gap to the north.

Currenex opens up only at 5PM EST, which means I got to wait another hour or so to do anything. Well.... Not bad as well, some buffer.
  • #38,957
  • Oct 12, 2008 2:59pm Oct 12, 2008 2:59pm
Quoting BoredToLoose
I didn't trade last Friday, wasn't at home, but I am really angry to not ride this drop, even with this volatility I think I would gain +150 pips.
I leave a Short enter at 1.3666, but I forgot to set a Order of a 1.3450 Break.
The Volatility seeing, some 30/50 pips SL trades were flushed away on falsie break channels. I can imagine!!
My TP for my Entry trade would be 1.3333, "I really like this number"
Why only this happen when I am not trading!!!

For the week to come I know a lot of traders are waiting more big drops, but be careful about that, we can drop further next week but the high volatility will remain.
Don't Follow my advices, but there is a "BIG" Possibility to be seeing a huge up move before new big drops.
There is a very important and magic number to watch next Monday:
1.3515

I will only trade Monday Morning after seeing what gap will happen, but I may put a small trade around 24:00 GMT after seeing price pattern until then!

Nice weekend to all!

  • #38,958
  • Oct 12, 2008 3:01pm Oct 12, 2008 3:01pm
hammer in 4h
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  • #38,959
  • Oct 12, 2008 3:03pm Oct 12, 2008 3:03pm
Quoting BoredToLoose
Right prediction indeed. Well done. Japan and NY are closed for Monday, only Europe is in control. I could imagine a even larger EUR rally.
  • #38,960
  • Oct 12, 2008 3:14pm Oct 12, 2008 3:14pm
Quoting don.key
Right prediction indeed. Well done. Japan and NY are closed for Monday, only Europe is in control. I could imagine a even larger EUR rally.
so...what do you say about the rapid drop happening right now?
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