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  • #38,541
  • Oct 9, 2008 3:26pm Oct 9, 2008 3:26pm
Quoting BoredToLoose
I have said here to go short only at 1.3591.
Now I am just wait to see other lines to be flirted.
Price will go down slowly, this is the worst to trade.
I know by experience, every time I enter, there goes in opposite direction, better to stay out.

There is a big difference to go short at level and go short at a time.
But let us say that no matter
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #38,542
  • Oct 9, 2008 3:27pm Oct 9, 2008 3:27pm
Hello all,

Well, I could have gotten out on a long 1.3694 for +32 but did not believe it so lost out on that opportunity. Now, 1.3600 psych level seems to be holding (in fact it's headed back up apparently). Should it get below 1.3600, I'm short at 1.3595 (pending), and here are the fib stops possible on the way down:

Could TP @ 1.3580 - 100% Retrace to Today's Previous Intra-day Lo.
1.3545 is 100% Fib Retrace to Yesterday's Lo.
1.3573 is 61.8% Retrace to This Week's Previous Lo.
1.3562 is 61.8% Retrace to Past 3 Days' Lo.
1.3443 is 100% Retrace to This Week's Previous Lo. Also Sept/Oct Prev. Lo.

Look right, Psiholog?
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #38,543
  • Oct 9, 2008 3:30pm Oct 9, 2008 3:30pm
......Price now will range around 1.3658/1.3591, then a last spike, what level ???? and finally a drop to 1.3400 area and strong rejection.
All this Tomorrow.
We will see then a weekend gap to the upside to put shorts in panic!

I think I am seeing to much movies!
  • #38,544
  • Oct 9, 2008 3:31pm Oct 9, 2008 3:31pm
Quoting Driver55
There is a big difference to go short at level and go short at a time.
But let us say that no matter
..... some levels at some time are useless!
  • #38,545
  • Oct 9, 2008 3:40pm Oct 9, 2008 3:40pm
Quoting BoredToLoose
..... some levels at some time are useless!
some levels at few hours are very important for large institutions.
They are wo makes the market. or do you think that microbes like you and me make that?
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #38,546
  • Oct 9, 2008 3:55pm Oct 9, 2008 3:55pm
What about Elliot Wave pattern forming from october 6 untill 10am today(GMT+2)? I am shorting small position from 1,3632, SL 1,3655. TP eyeing 1,355 to show during London tommorow.
  • #38,547
  • Oct 9, 2008 4:00pm Oct 9, 2008 4:00pm
Quoting StefanoProdi
What about Elliot Wave pattern forming from october 6 untill 10am today(GMT+2)? I am shorting small position from 1,3632, SL 1,3655. TP eyeing 1,355 to show during London tommorow.
what is the significance of .3655
  • #38,548
  • Oct 9, 2008 4:04pm Oct 9, 2008 4:04pm
Quoting Danger
I'm thinking about opening a LONG position here.
I was thinking the same thing, or at least shorting with my limit at .3750 over the weekend, but I dont think it will trigger
  • #38,549
  • Oct 9, 2008 4:04pm Oct 9, 2008 4:04pm
Quoting BoredToLoose
......Price now will range around 1.3658/1.3591, then a last spike, what level ???? and finally a drop to 1.3400 area and strong rejection.
All this Tomorrow.
We will see then a weekend gap to the upside to put shorts in panic!

I think I am seeing to much movies!
YOu should get Tivo!
USD Est Non Mortuus
  • #38,550
  • Oct 9, 2008 4:04pm Oct 9, 2008 4:04pm
Just my SL based on usual risk management.
  • #38,551
  • Oct 9, 2008 4:10pm Oct 9, 2008 4:10pm
looks like it hit resistance at .3580?
  • #38,552
  • Oct 9, 2008 4:10pm Oct 9, 2008 4:10pm
The larger the timeframe, the more compelling are the technicals. That is indisputable. Looking at the Daily chart, the down trend is indisputable.

Having said that, each leg in a down trend is subject to a pullback....a pull up in this case. And the last leg down from 1.4866 to 1.3443 has not had any appreciable pullback (pull up)....only to the 24% fib level at best. There have been some stabs to go higher, but not successful.

Now, for an opinion. News is bad all around, so it is difficult to second guess how traders for central banks and hedge funds, during the individual sessions (Asian, Euro, US) will manipulate the price. But they DO like to manipulate it up and down for the sake of making money. This has NOT been pushed up nearly enough considering all the down side it has experienced. If THEY do not push it up, they will be "missing a bet" so to speak....and they NEVER miss a bet. That is my take, anyway.

So, if there is any substance to all this conjecture, we could see 1.3800 and even 1.4000 before any more substantial downside.

I'll follow the charts, as I am sure we all are doing......
  • #38,553
  • Oct 9, 2008 4:13pm Oct 9, 2008 4:13pm
Quoting traderathome
The larger the timeframe, the more compelling are the technicals. That is indisputable. Looking at the Daily chart, the down trend is indisputable.

Having said that, each leg in a down trend is subject to a pullback....a pull up in this case. And the last leg down from 1.4866 to 1.3443 has not had any appreciable pullback (pull up)....only to the 24% fib level at best. There have been some stabs to go higher, but not successful.

Now, for an opinion. News is bad all around, so it is difficult to second guess how traders for central banks and hedge funds, during the individual sessions (Asian, Euro, US) will manipulate the price. But they DO like to manipulate it up and down for the sake of making money. This has NOT been pushed up nearly enough considering all the down side it has experienced. If THEY do not push it up, they will be "missing a bet" so to speak....and they NEVER miss a bet. That is my take, anyway.

So, if there is any substance to all this conjecture, we could see 1.3800 and even 1.4000 before any more substantial downside.

I'll follow the charts, as I am sure we all are doing......
genius now ill set my limit to short at 1.3800
  • #38,554
  • Oct 9, 2008 4:15pm Oct 9, 2008 4:15pm
Quoting Epipany
looks like it hit resistance at .3580?
.3580 seems to be a good resistance or is it support? sorry, my terminology might be skewed
  • #38,555
  • Oct 9, 2008 4:18pm Oct 9, 2008 4:18pm
Quoting Epipany
looks like it hit resistance at .3580?
I am quite satisfaid how we are doing on the hourly! Spread still huge, this is noise moving...
  • #38,556
  • Oct 9, 2008 4:19pm Oct 9, 2008 4:19pm
Quoting Epipany
genius now ill set my limit to short at 1.3800

And why not a long at 1.3600 with a SL at 1.3580...?

Beginning the new session, the price was slammed down to 1.3581, 3 pips below the low of yesterdays session. This may signal that as a true bottom, and the rest is upside. So a SL at 1.3580 is real tight and sensible.
  • #38,557
  • Oct 9, 2008 4:22pm Oct 9, 2008 4:22pm
Quoting traderathome
And why not a long at 1.3600 with a SL at 1.3580...?

Beginning the new session, the price was slammed down to 1.3581, 3 pips below the low of yesterdays session. This may signal that as a true bottom, and the rest is upside. So a SL at 1.3580 is real tight and sensible.
and what target do u propose?
I dunno im just when it comes to fighting the trend, the fluxuations kill me
  • #38,558
  • Oct 9, 2008 4:23pm Oct 9, 2008 4:23pm
Quoting traderathome
And why not a long at 1.3600 with a SL at 1.3580...?

Beginning the new session, the price was slammed down to 1.3581, 3 pips below the low of yesterdays session. This may signal that as a true bottom, and the rest is upside. So a SL at 1.3580 is real tight and sensible.
before opening a long position take a look on the daily chart too....
  • #38,559
  • Oct 9, 2008 4:25pm Oct 9, 2008 4:25pm
Quoting StefanoProdi
What about Elliot Wave pattern forming from october 6 untill 10am today(GMT+2)? I am shorting small position from 1,3632, SL 1,3655. TP eyeing 1,355 to show during London tommorow.
Be patient. The move down from 1.4869 was wave 1, and wave 2 rally has a ways to go in this correction. Look for a retreat back to the previous 4th wave, or at least into the fibo zone. I am looking to count a flat pattern 3-3-5 complete before shorting. Most likely Monday or later.
  • #38,560
  • Oct 9, 2008 4:26pm Oct 9, 2008 4:26pm
Quoting Sole
before opening a long position take a look on the daily chart too....
daily chart shows a good flux to go long, 100+pip
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