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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #1,961
  • Oct 3, 2008 5:05pm Oct 3, 2008 5:05pm
Quoting Igrok
It seem that all the majors have changed the direction of the main move of the year except for UJ. I wonder whether it will also be able to catch up with others over the next three months.
hello Sir,

I like to take this opportunity to thank you 100%, your book is amazing and is already helping me and to find u here helping people is another blessing all in itself

God bless u..
  • #1,962
  • Oct 5, 2008 8:20pm Oct 5, 2008 8:20pm
Quoting Igrok
Yes. Perhaps AUD has the most interesting technical outlook at the moment. It is currently forming a symmetrical broadening triangle on daily. If it is to continue doing just that, then the next target might be somewhere at around .7660-70.
Fantastic call Igrok....I'm guessing you expect this to bounce up from the .7500 area?
  • #1,963
  • Oct 6, 2008 12:47am Oct 6, 2008 12:47am
Quoting Norman1
Fantastic call Igrok....I'm guessing you expect this to bounce up from the .7500 area?
I was expecting it to bounce from .7660-70 area.
  • #1,964
  • Oct 6, 2008 12:47am Oct 6, 2008 12:47am
Quoting nAVIN2007
hello Sir,

I like to take this opportunity to thank you 100%, your book is amazing and is already helping me and to find u here helping people is another blessing all in itself

God bless u..

Sir, thank you for your kind words.
  • #1,965
  • Oct 6, 2008 1:44am Oct 6, 2008 1:44am
Nice fall of the JPY crosses at the Tokyo session. Did that corresponded to any particular template Mr Ig? I just hate waking up before Frankie and seeing such big moves already carried out.
  • #1,966
  • Oct 6, 2008 1:52am Oct 6, 2008 1:52am
Quoting belekas
Nice fall of the JPY crosses at the Tokyo session. Did that corresponded to any particular template Mr Ig? I just hate waking up before Frankie and seeing such big moves already carried out.
I don't know. I just came home from the restaurant after celebrating my wife's birthday and being kind of under some influence of Hennessy. I'm not going to do anything at least till NY open. Good night, guys, for now.
  • #1,967
  • Oct 6, 2008 1:54am Oct 6, 2008 1:54am
Quoting Igrok
I don't know. I just came home from the restaurant after celebrating my wife's birthday and being kind of under some influence of Hennessy. I'm not going to do anything at least till NY open. Good night, guys, for now.
Have a good rest Igrok. Cheers
  • #1,968
  • Oct 6, 2008 9:18am Oct 6, 2008 9:18am
Should have some Hennessey while watching this crazy markets all over the world. This is the first time I've been close to feel sorry for so many poor souls losing all their money today.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #1,969
  • Oct 6, 2008 11:09am Oct 6, 2008 11:09am
Quoting aediaz1
Should have some Hennessey while watching this crazy markets all over the world. This is the first time I've been close to feel sorry for so many poor souls losing all their money today.
Complete meltdown. We have a 1196 pip range on GBP/JPY today...unbelievable
  • #1,970
  • Oct 6, 2008 11:13am Oct 6, 2008 11:13am
Quoting belekas
Complete meltdown. We have a 1196 pip range on GBP/JPY today...unbelievable
Indeed. I'm eager to see what the future will bring us.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #1,971
  • Oct 6, 2008 11:18am Oct 6, 2008 11:18am
It seems to me that, under the circumstance, the most interesting pair from a trader's point of view might be the USD/JPY. I think it is still quite likely that it might be willing to join the herd and to take out the high of the year within the remaining three months period. Considering that the minimal "must reach" target on Cable is 1.70 and the same level on the USDX is located above .9263, it might make sense to try to buy USD/JPY somewhere just below 100.00.
  • #1,972
  • Oct 6, 2008 12:37pm Oct 6, 2008 12:37pm
Quoting Igrok
It seems to me that, under the circumstance, the most interesting pair from a trader's point of view might be the USD/JPY. I think it is still quite likely that it might be willing to join the herd and to take out the high of the year within the remaining three months period. Considering that the minimal "must reach" target on Cable is 1.70 and the same level on the USDX is located above .9263, it might make sense to try to buy USD/JPY somewhere just below 100.00.
Mr. Toshchakov,

If we get another consecutive touch on the lower trendline on UJ, wouldn't it defeat the idea of a triangle due to the sequence of moves?

Therefore, should it be expected not to see price travel as low as ~96.50-.60?

JP.
  • #1,973
  • Edited 1:50pm Oct 6, 2008 1:27pm | Edited 1:50pm
In an up-to-date comparison (until today),

We can observe that USDx, EU, and cable all have an ascending slope on the last leg on the attached graph (2007-2008). Therefore, only UJ has not increased it's Yearly range since last year. Until present date, that is...

It should be no surprise if we get a similar slope angle on UJ when compared to the other majors (EU and Cable).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Majors_Yr_Range_Comparison.jpg Size: 51 KB
  • #1,974
  • Oct 7, 2008 11:36am Oct 7, 2008 11:36am
Hi Igrok,
taking a look at long term EU (at least at the history of data I have available) I agree that we might go down to 0.96 - maybe even to 0.67 area...

But... taking a look at the chart attached I would assume that 1.73 area has to be reached before.

Reasons:
* yearly range already overdone
* strong resistance @ 1.35 area
* upper trendline of broadening triangle not touched yet (if drawn correctly... maybe you have a different suggestion of drawing it)
* no divergences,... pointing down.
* a daily divergence pointing towards 1.4865 is forming - though not confirmed yet!

As I always try to find reasons against my analysis... maybe you could give me some hints... thanks for giving your opinion on that...
Attached Image
  • #1,975
  • Oct 7, 2008 1:52pm Oct 7, 2008 1:52pm
Quoting ernesto
Reasons:
1. yearly range already overdone
2. strong resistance @ 1.35 area
3. upper trendline of broadening triangle not touched yet (if drawn correctly... maybe you have a different suggestion of drawing it)
4. no divergences,... pointing down.
5. a daily divergence pointing towards 1.4865 is forming - though not confirmed yet!
1. We're close now to the end of the year. The current range might look excessive but it can be of any size and and it's much easier to say when it's too short than when it's too wide.
2. Not a very significant one.
3. Both trendlines (the upper left and lower left) are at the same angle toward the horizon thus making a potential diamond look like a symmetrical pattern. No need to make another touch of the upper left border.
4. There are confirmed monthly divergences on USD/CHF and (what is even more important) on the USDX. Enough to confirm the direction for the EUR/USD as well.
5. Possible. But the target is not that far and it doesn't negate the longer-term picture.
  • #1,976
  • Oct 7, 2008 1:57pm Oct 7, 2008 1:57pm
Left sequence is questionable but right side seems to form ok, no ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: di.gif Size: 26 KB
Measure twice, cut once
  • #1,977
  • Oct 7, 2008 2:02pm Oct 7, 2008 2:02pm
Seems to be forming on most 1h gbp charts
Measure twice, cut once
  • #1,978
  • Oct 7, 2008 2:03pm Oct 7, 2008 2:03pm
Quoting aediaz1
Left sequence is questionable but right side seems to form ok, no ?
Possible.
  • #1,979
  • Oct 7, 2008 2:03pm Oct 7, 2008 2:03pm
Quoting Igrok
It seems to me that, under the circumstance, the most interesting pair from a trader's point of view might be the USD/JPY. I think it is still quite likely that it might be willing to join the herd and to take out the high of the year within the remaining three months period. Considering that the minimal "must reach" target on Cable is 1.70 and the same level on the USDX is located above .9263, it might make sense to try to buy USD/JPY somewhere just below 100.00.
Dunno, I still think that if all the JPY are to face continued pressure as stocks decay madly and the carry trade is destroyed, it will be very hard to pressure UJ into rising. As witnessed during the EURJPY move parallel to EURUSD from 1.6 / 170 down to 1.35 / 135, the USDJPY suffered alongside, despite a 1100 point USDX rally. The money that was artificially taken out of the JPY via carry trade loans has to flow back in some time, and I think this time is now.
Parallel to this the inflated EURUSD and most notably AUDUSD are getting deflated from their 5-7+ year carry trade / easy/free money prop-up.

Basically, if we are to see stock markets return to 2002 levels(I believe you are looking at 7xxx levels as well from what you posted?), then so will the EURUSD and EURJPY. As long as this rebalancing happens, the USDJPY will be under fire parallel and I suspect it won't be until all of the artificial carry trade skew is out of UJ that it will be able to rebalance naturally again.

Personally I wouldn't be surprised at 92.50 USDJPY or worse at one point, but things would have to get quite bad.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,980
  • Oct 7, 2008 2:34pm Oct 7, 2008 2:34pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Dunno, I still think that if all the JPY are to face continued pressure as stocks decay madly and the carry trade is destroyed, it will be very hard to pressure UJ into rising. As witnessed during the EURJPY move parallel to EURUSD from 1.6 / 170 down to 1.35 / 135, the USDJPY suffered alongside, despite a 1100 point USDX rally. The money that was artificially taken out of the JPY via carry trade loans has to flow back in some time, and I think this time is now.
Parallel to this the inflated EURUSD and most notably AUDUSD are getting deflated from their 5-7+ year carry trade / easy/free money prop-up.

Basically, if we are to see stock markets return to 2002 levels(I believe you are looking at 7xxx levels as well from what you posted?), then so will the EURUSD and EURJPY. As long as this rebalancing happens, the USDJPY will be under fire parallel and I suspect it won't be until all of the artificial carry trade skew is out of UJ that it will be able to rebalance naturally again.

Personally I wouldn't be surprised at 92.50 USDJPY or worse at one point, but things would have to get quite bad.
Frankly speaking, UJ early range is not that much different from the average. I don't put too much fate in it chaning the direction of the year. I just woder whether it will be able join the herd or not. Also it does have some unpaid near-term debts above current levels and might try 114 area before turning down again.
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