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  • #37,401
  • Oct 7, 2008 1:40am Oct 7, 2008 1:40am
Quoting Jurrasic
It's uncertain now allright, but if it breaks 3657 daily r1 which is also about the top of the channel in a few hours from now, it's likely we're now in an uptrend. May sound a bit fast but with the volatility going on and the way it bounced up the previous time from near 39 it makes sense.
ahh yes, I see where you guys are coming from. It is possible.
  • #37,402
  • Oct 7, 2008 1:43am Oct 7, 2008 1:43am
Quoting altrader
ahh yes, I see where you guys are coming from. It is possible.
It's also interesting to notice where the drop stopped for now:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the path to Enrichment.
  • #37,403
  • Edited 1:59am Oct 7, 2008 1:48am | Edited 1:59am
Quoting Jurrasic
It's also interesting to notice where the drop stopped for now:
it does look as though it would have some powerful support to bust through to go lower. But then again I thought that yesterday as well with the AUD/USD and whoa..that thing cut through support levels so easily it wasn't funny. You are right though it is strong resistance/support there and will have to watch the chart closely to see how strong the moves up are and where they encounter resistance.

In order to go short, I'll be looking towards it breaching the 1.35 level convincingly. (by 10pips)--Then I'll consider going short if other things line up.
  • #37,404
  • Oct 7, 2008 2:05am Oct 7, 2008 2:05am
JFYI

"Extends ease back to rest on reported support/demand at
$1.3565, with bids interest said to extend down to $1.3555. A break
below to open a deeper pullback toward $1.3535/30. Offers seen in place
again around $1.3600."
  • #37,405
  • Oct 7, 2008 2:23am Oct 7, 2008 2:23am
price is ranging between EMA 100 and 200 on 15min chart.
possible big move on either side when broken.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.JPG Size: 119 KB
  • #37,406
  • Oct 7, 2008 2:29am Oct 7, 2008 2:29am
"OPTIONS: Expiries of note for today's 1000EDT/1400GMT cut
* Euro-dollar; $1.3600, $1.3650"

"Breaks back above $1.3600, with one tech trader noting a
triangle formation, which if brioken suggest rate can go higher. Offers
seen palced toward the overnight high at $1.3621, a break above here to
open a move on toward $1.3645/50 ($1.3646 Europe/NY high Monday) ahead of $1.3670/80."
  • #37,407
  • Oct 7, 2008 2:39am Oct 7, 2008 2:39am
Quoting FXraider
"OPTIONS: Expiries of note for today's 1000EDT/1400GMT cut
* Euro-dollar; $1.3600, $1.3650"

"Breaks back above $1.3600, with one tech trader noting a
triangle formation, which if brioken suggest rate can go higher. Offers
seen palced toward the overnight high at $1.3621, a break above here to
open a move on toward $1.3645/50 ($1.3646 Europe/NY high Monday) ahead of $1.3670/80."
Hi where did you get these infos about Options Expiries ?
Thanks a lot.
  • #37,408
  • Oct 7, 2008 2:42am Oct 7, 2008 2:42am
update:

"traders note that today's mentioned $1.3600 strike option
expiry said to be for good size. Another expiry noted with a strike at
$1.3650."
  • #37,409
  • Oct 7, 2008 2:43am Oct 7, 2008 2:43am
so likely to expect range of 1.35 to 1.365 for today.
  • #37,410
  • Oct 7, 2008 2:59am Oct 7, 2008 2:59am
There is a lot of speculation going around about coordinated rate cuts in both euro zone and us. Interestingly australia already did the rate cut so at the moment the safest bet should probably be to buy aud vs euro and aud vs usd.

Volatility on eurusd will be insane if ecb cuts rates and then later fed.
  • #37,411
  • Oct 7, 2008 3:04am Oct 7, 2008 3:04am
Quoting mikkom
There is a lot of speculation going around about coordinated rate cuts in both euro zone and us. Interestingly australia already did the rate cut so at the moment the safest bet should probably be to buy aud vs euro and aud vs usd.

Volatility on eurusd will be insane if ecb cuts rates and then later fed.
but audusd just went down by 100pips.any idea where it is heading?
  • #37,412
  • Oct 7, 2008 3:13am Oct 7, 2008 3:13am
Quoting emmyi29
but audusd just went down by 100pips.any idea where it is heading?
I should add disclaimer to my posts.. They are not trade advise.

If I enter trades like what I described (haven't yet). I always trade from the charts - I only take the possible direction from fundies. If you trade plain fundies, a good stop would be something like 5 daily atr so your usual 1-2% position would be quite small.
  • #37,413
  • Oct 7, 2008 3:16am Oct 7, 2008 3:16am
Now I'm going downstairs and give him a treat.

He's much smarter than I give him credit for.

He knew the euro bulls would rear their heads.

You can see how much I believed in this little rally.

Good dog... bad euro bulls...

Either way... 30+ PIPS
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  • #37,414
  • Oct 7, 2008 3:23am Oct 7, 2008 3:23am
Quoting acumen
Now I'm going downstairs and give him a treat.

He's much smarter than I give him credit for.

He knew the euro bulls would rear their heads.

You can see how much I believed in this little rally.

Good dog... bad euro bulls...

Either way... 30+ PIPS

I second that Mike...in the bank.

  • #37,415
  • Oct 7, 2008 3:24am Oct 7, 2008 3:24am
Quoting altrader
My analysis is telling me that it is more likely to head back down again. See attached image.
It may need to fill that gap, though.
  • #37,416
  • Oct 7, 2008 3:31am Oct 7, 2008 3:31am
lol but I don't know where to closed the shorts toughts ?
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Money often costs too much...
  • #37,417
  • Oct 7, 2008 3:41am Oct 7, 2008 3:41am
  • #37,418
  • Oct 7, 2008 3:44am Oct 7, 2008 3:44am
Quoting BoredToLoose
indeed.. time to readd shorts j/k
Money often costs too much...
  • #37,419
  • Oct 7, 2008 3:51am Oct 7, 2008 3:51am
No worries
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Just Like Orchestrating : timing - timing - timing
  • #37,420
  • Oct 7, 2008 3:55am Oct 7, 2008 3:55am
Because of this drop now I tend to believe it's no longer a potential reversal but just another bear flag. It's about a solid break of 660 up or 520 down. We'll see I guess...
On the path to Enrichment.
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