USD/JPY Discussion

unbeliveble.. now when i enter a trade..

they pass the bill.. and the buck drops..

another -500$ . .

Financial-Rescue Package Wins Final Approval With House Vote of 263 to 171



Market is crazy

Long!!

Friend, what stop loss you use?

50 pips..

i don't understand ur question..

I think, when we have a big volatility, we need a big stops ... to me, is bearish only if break 103.50

what do you people think is the long term trend of the usd/jpy. thanks

Hi guys... for now I prefer not to trade... because i see the same indefinition (blue rectangles) that we had before the last bigfall at the beggining of this year...

As data, Mouteki systems has its daily targets in 108.25 and 96.10 (orange arrows) (the bottom of the year)... Ok, so now we are in the middle of a big US trouble... with a patch as a solution (that is what i believe), and with a big global financial freezer...



What i see are two possible down scenarios:
-A double bottom formation, look in my charts how price respect the 50% fibo of a 124-96, abd make a SHS (red arrow) formation in between 50, 38 and 23% , so we can expect more doown to 0% maybe a bit less. beyond 95, only will show the start of a new big fall. but if the present formation is respected 96 will be the bottom and the start of a new elliot period. There are more fibo explanation to my point of view, but basicly is this.

-Another thing about elliot waves... suppose that the 96 yens was the bottom.... and 110.66 (last HH) was the top. So we can say that if price don't fall beyond the 61.8 % of this rise, around 101.50, casually a very Big support ever, then we are in the born of the 3º elliot, wich is the largest of the waves, so we will have a big and strong up movement.
So this fall was a correction period...
The problem here is all the crap around USD as a currency and as a nation....
For that, everything of what happens in minor charts (4 hours or less) seems noise more than anything else. So i'ts better to go to large timeframes to can see things in a better way.



http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z...s/forex/uj.gif


http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z.../forex/uj2.gif



Of course, i could completely wrong.

Cheers

Cesar

hi guys
i posted from 2 week ago post , forecasting continuation of the up trend and share my calls based on my views.

double breakout in usd/chf confirm the uptrend continuation , which will drag the usd/yen to follow .

and here is my chart to detect the trend direction and to describe my targets.

and as you all see every time price go down it raise up again like rocket coz the trend movement is (up trend).
and i want you to take care of fundamental aspect!!!!!!!
and to be clear to you,

all the buyers and the sellers are here in those threads and you know the forex basic rule
only 20% win and the other 80% loss
so try to figure it out by your mind
yea they fool you and Robb your money
they said the price is going down and you will find the price is going up & visa verse try to observe and make your mind work
in threads they call this move the {news}.


and i tried to warn you from time ago by sending the trend direction , i hope i did my part by good way.

did any body join me collecting pips in this never ending downwards movement; i like it when i ride money making waves like this.

Bought a put @ 104.00 targeting at least 100 on the break of the Head and shoulders pattern on the daily. Also got in at spot market at 103.20.

two reversal candles has formed on the 30 mins chart i guess it is time to go long.cheers

hi juys

i would like to thank many of you traders for every moment i have in da market, i enjoy being with you guys.

some very good traders send me private messages to ask me
why price dont go up , is really the trend is up and all this movement to down is just retrace.

i 100% sure and confirmed from the trend guys trend are up for usd/yen , usd/chf.

usd (American dollar vs all currencies are up trend , and you can confirm by the usd index too).

JPY (yen vs all currencies are down trend, and the jpy index confirm my words).

chf ( swissy index double breakouts which determine a down trend)

so why usd/yen down like this way

the answer in fundamental aspect!!!!

as i said before all the buyers and sellers in those threads ,
so if you found everone post focused on the up movement will happen (up trend), so the price will go down coz all the traders will take long positions & visa verse.

so be sure from the trend my friend but you have to but your eyes on fundamentals too.

and as in my charts usd/yen is in up trend from 97.xx
and as you see usd/chf has double breakouts to the up confirm the uptrend of the usd against many currencies.
and make me sure from the (up trend)
but as i said i put my eyes on fundamental too...

trade well my friend.

In long-term prospect I expect strengthening JPY

Monthly trend is south, and now is going again in your way after a few weeks retracement.

for all who likes technical data, Monthly charts shows a really big bearish triangle thru the years. now UJ is placed below the 23-6 % of the fall 278-79, and in the 50% in between 23.6% & 0% of the same fall... so,technically if UJ go below again this 50 % the chances of go to 0% (79.75)is really big, for now is tryin to cross it.

As i said before, technically we have 2 down scenarios: down till 101.5 and starting new uptrend wave with targets in more than 124 or worse till 96 (Lower Low of the year) and make a double bottom with target in between 117-122.

Fundamental aspect is more than explain in all sites and news TV so, i am not explain in that... the crisis is global, but the focus is in USA..
and the worst thing is the lack of confidence.

100.25 ahaha

edit: 5 minutes later, 101.25 :s

what happened to yen? no news and such a sharp move

What is that!? I'm almost done trading
bought from 102.50

There is no going back now right?

...that was what i can't understand. I suppose some level was broken as i dont see any news for such a move

beside, USD is everywhere strong, exept against the yen, damn