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  • #4,001
  • Oct 4, 2008 9:42am Oct 4, 2008 9:42am
Anyone ever noticed that some pairs display their support and resistance levels easier than others? EURUSD shows them clearly and they hold often. GBPUSD I find more difficult to see. S+R on USDJPY is easy to spot, but GBPJPY is sketchy. This reminded of something akuma99 posted a long time ago, which may be beneficial to those seeking S/R levels to trade.

I have found that often it is worth looking at the close values of each major time period on these 'tricky pairs' to see if they give any more clues. It appears some pairs place a greater significance on the highs and lows, whereas other pairs the support and resistance is more likely to exist at the close of the 1H, 4H and daily TF bars. Time is a significant factor, some might say it is even more important than price. Many analysts only consider support/resistance to be broken if a bar closes beyond it, so does it not follow that we should also construct our S+R levels on the closes of these bars?

Here's an example of using line charts (dot to dot of the close price on a 1H chart for GBPUSD), with support and resistance defined as levels where the price close line touched and was rejected multiple times either in polarity shifts or where price consolidated. I think we can clearly see that the levels are fairly obvious, and the pivots that defined the levels have been marked out with magenta circles.
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  • #4,002
  • Oct 4, 2008 9:49am Oct 4, 2008 9:49am
And now a chart (using candles now) to see how these support and resistance levels held up.

IMO these levels have done a fairly good job, with price often consolidating for periods within these levels and often indicating areas where price found support and resistance. These are only 1H bars too, experimenting with other time periods offer similar results, especially if your 4H charts are synced with the morning and afternoon periods of the three international sessions, as these close prices are more likely to be significant. Anyway, just a couple of ideas which may or may not be of use.
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  • #4,003
  • Edited 11:27am Oct 4, 2008 11:17am | Edited 11:27am
Quoting birdt
And now a chart (using candles now) to see how these support and resistance levels held up.

IMO these levels have done a fairly good job, with price often consolidating for periods within these levels and often indicating areas where price found support and resistance. These are only 1H bars too, experimenting with other time periods offer similar results, especially if your 4H charts are synced with the morning and afternoon periods of the three international sessions, as these close prices are more likely to be significant. Anyway, just a couple of ideas which may or may not be of use.

hi,

in my opinion 1.7980 is a better entry for GBP/USD in this case (resistance+fib confluence). If you will go short on 1.7950 on these days volatility and still a 40 pip SL you are more likely to get stopped out than to get a great trade.

More, i'd choose 1.8110 or a little less (comparing your 1.8122)...again, fib 50% and S/R, but this one looks risky overall. I'm looking at peaks and vallys too besides S/R levels. Now we have a double bottom on G/U 1H too, so...you'll never know.

these are just my observations. take care and thanks for posting.
  • #4,004
  • Oct 4, 2008 12:58pm Oct 4, 2008 12:58pm
My GU. Plz do correct me if I done any mistake in here.
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  • #4,005
  • Edited Oct 7, 2008 1:05am Oct 4, 2008 2:51pm | Edited Oct 7, 2008 1:05am
Ok I started a thread with an idea a bit ago, and it died um about as quick as I could post it. . . That being said looking at BRV's blog I have to bring the idea to life again and get some feedback on it. . . . Basically the idea says that once we see the first level of consolidation on a move we draw a fibo and place the 23/76 level at the level of S&R thus giving us an idea/confirmation of where our already drawn S&R levels will be as well as target prices. . . . its a predictor of confluence . . . Take a look


Take a look at the move post july 16th. . . And while I admit the level went lower than the fibo would have predicted, there still was a nice pop off of it (Because it was confluenced with a level of S&R we already drew). . .


Hindsight is 20/20 and while back testing it is hard to truly have an objective eye. . . so I ask that with the coming move it is just something you think of and let me know. its just like drawing your fibo early eventually it will be there. . . you're just getting a jump on it
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  • #4,006
  • Oct 4, 2008 4:44pm Oct 4, 2008 4:44pm
Sorry but if you draw just enough lines, there will always be a confluence. At the end you have something like the rainbow. Problems: It just went a little further. It just didn't hit the line. It is just ambiguous.
No offence really.
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #4,007
  • Edited 5:10pm Oct 4, 2008 4:50pm | Edited 5:10pm
Quoting spekitox
Sorry but if you draw just enough lines, there will always be a confluence. At the end you have something like the rainbow. Problems: It just went a little further. It just didn't hit the line. It is just ambiguous.
No offence really.
none taken. . That being said.... again its short of the real top but . . . still

http://i34.tinypic.com/arv5d.jpg

And I'll drop it. . . just thought it was interesting
  • #4,008
  • Edited 5:21pm Oct 4, 2008 5:08pm | Edited 5:21pm
Have a look at these. Only 50 % used. Coincides with 191.00. Waiting for a short. I see very little ambiguity here.
Missed the long at the bottom, missed 300 pips in couple hours. That's life.

ps: what I meant is, there's no almost. You can't almost win. You can win or lose. That's why I reckon one should stay away from ambiguities.
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forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #4,009
  • Oct 4, 2008 5:47pm Oct 4, 2008 5:47pm
If USD/JPY finishes this run @ 116.48 you owe me a beer. . .


http://i35.tinypic.com/2rw7pna.jpg

Not that I have any faith in it or am attempting to call anything . . . I know predicting the future is absolutely impossible and there is no "holy grail"
  • #4,010
  • Edited Oct 5, 2008 1:24am Oct 4, 2008 6:08pm | Edited Oct 5, 2008 1:24am
Well I'm too shortsighted for such a long term anticipation. I'll stick to H4 and look for longs around 103.50 and shorts around 107.00 then 108.00

ps. actually if it finishes the run, you could be generous and buy me a beer on your megaprofits.
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #4,011
  • Oct 5, 2008 12:48pm Oct 5, 2008 12:48pm
Quoting spekitox
Well I'm too shortsighted for such a long term anticipation. I'll stick to H4 and look for longs around 103.50 and shorts around 107.00 then 108.00

ps. actually if it finishes the run, you could be generous and buy me a beer on your megaprofits.
Well, which way will the dollar pairs gap on opening this Sunday.......Anyone want to hazard a guess?
  • #4,012
  • Oct 5, 2008 1:16pm Oct 5, 2008 1:16pm
I'd rather have a gander at the quotes. Forex is 7/24. Only brokers close. As I know.

http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes.htm

Quoting Willowgal
Well, which way will the dollar pairs gap on opening this Sunday.......Anyone want to hazard a guess?
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #4,013
  • Oct 5, 2008 1:23pm Oct 5, 2008 1:23pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Here's a pattern that happens all the time and is very important for taking advantage of a lot of buying and selling opportunities. You'll notice that when price makes a "U" formation at a turning point there will commonly be a base built within it. Think of it as a cup, where the bottom inside the cup acts as a potential turning point for price. To make the most out of these you would want to scale down to smaller timeframes in order to pinpoint the exact bottom of the cup formation.

If the base of this cup lines up with historical support or resistance all the better. Many times you will see the "stabby" bars in trends get nulled and price will turn at these bases. It happened today on EUR, for instance.

If you take a look at your charts you're going to find them everywhere. They happen over and over again; I look at them very frequently.

Below are some recent examples on EUR and GBP.
Dear BillyRayValentine

I started reading your thread and have a question for the pattern, bottom of the bucket. I am not sure I understood correctly U formation or "Cup". In your chart, the price droped from 1.4766 and made a bottom.It reversed all the way up to 1.4766 level which means that the price movement looks like U turn. Is it right entry point for short where the price complete making U formation?

I thank you for sharing your thread.

faab
  • #4,014
  • Oct 5, 2008 1:29pm Oct 5, 2008 1:29pm
Quoting spekitox
I'd rather have a gander at the quotes. Forex is 7/24. Only brokers close. As I know.

http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes.htm
You are correct. Only brokers close. Here is another site for viewing forex "after hours". Will make some nice pips on the downmove of the Eur/Usd because I paid attention to where my broker left off on Friday and and the quotes from this site.

http://forex.tradingcharts.com/quotes/
  • #4,015
  • Oct 5, 2008 1:45pm Oct 5, 2008 1:45pm
Quoting spekitox
I'd rather have a gander at the quotes. Forex is 7/24. Only brokers close. As I know.

http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes.htm
I NEVER knew this .... oh my god I have so much to learn.
  • #4,016
  • Oct 5, 2008 3:24pm Oct 5, 2008 3:24pm
A good way to learn is to read and read and read. There are plenty good books around. However I think it's the best to start with some classics - like How to trade in stocks from Livermore.
He wrote it 70 years ago but it is true from the first page until the last.
And when you have read that... don't stop until you read atleast one thousand pages of books. By the time you finish you will accept one important thing: trading is a profession. Nothing less, nothing more.
It took me some time to understand that I will have to learn to trade at least as long as I studied for my current profession. For years. No other way. Would I want to have my tooth filled by a first year med school student? Definitely not. Would I want a car mechanic with six months of experience? Definitely not. Is a law school undergrad already a good lawyer? Definitely not.
I better get back to my charts... I still have a lot to learn...

Quoting Willowgal
I NEVER knew this .... oh my god I have so much to learn.
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #4,017
  • Oct 5, 2008 5:01pm Oct 5, 2008 5:01pm
Did I do this correctly? I wanna know and I need to keep correcting myself...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...86429&page=267
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  • #4,018
  • Oct 5, 2008 6:53pm Oct 5, 2008 6:53pm
Hello BRV,
Do you sometimes take trades countertrend big time like the one I join here.
I set a limit order like a stupid donkey and it hit the stop loss of 40 pips in like 5 minutes. But I guess if you see some price action setup on the H1 or H4 chart you would take it ?

Do you use limit orders only for orders matching the trend (pullbacks) ?
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  • #4,019
  • Oct 6, 2008 1:30am Oct 6, 2008 1:30am
Quoting spekitox
A good way to learn is to read and read and read. There are plenty good books around. However I think it's the best to start with some classics - like How to trade in stocks from Livermore.
He wrote it 70 years ago but it is true from the first page until the last.
And when you have read that... don't stop until you read atleast one thousand pages of books. By the time you finish you will accept one important thing: trading is a profession. Nothing less, nothing more.
It took me some time to understand that I will have to learn to trade at least as long as I studied for my current profession. For years. No other way. Would I want to have my tooth filled by a first year med school student? Definitely not. Would I want a car mechanic with six months of experience? Definitely not. Is a law school undergrad already a good lawyer? Definitely not.
I better get back to my charts... I still have a lot to learn...
Thanks ... I think I will get over to Amazon and buy that book.

Cheers
  • #4,020
  • Oct 6, 2008 2:25am Oct 6, 2008 2:25am
Quoting DaBuschi
I might have been a little harsh here, which is due to the fact, that I missed a lot of good opportunities in the last two weeks. I was so sure, that the dollar canīt get stronger with the financial crisis and the problem the U.S. have right now, that I was just looking for longs on the EURUSD. I had some winners and some losers, but would Iīve just looked at the charts, I could have made some substantial gains trading a stronger dollar.

I didnīt and that is a lesson I learned before and learned it again. Hopefully it sinks in this time
No worries, I've been guilty plenty of times of sounding like an a** and not meaning it.....got your drift . Thats the problem with written word here.
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