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EURUSD

  • #36,361
  • Oct 2, 2008 5:57pm Oct 2, 2008 5:57pm
Quoting knuckledrag
If USD is air what backs the EUR
Nothing. Well, allmost nothing. There is still some gold left and ofcourse holdings in other currencies which are also backed by nothing. God this system is great. Money with no real value. You gotta love it!

But still the eurozone is in better shape then the US. Not in great shape, but better, and that is what currency trading is about. Strength.

Quoting MrLiquidity
Maarten, i think you are right. Some rationality may arise after the 700 B is aproved. However the oil price is the main driver of the currency pair.
That 700 billion is not going to change much I think. The FED is pumping money into the system all the time, and buying up banks, assets and securities. And what is the dollar doing? .... right! Weird world!

Maarten
  • #36,362
  • Oct 2, 2008 6:03pm Oct 2, 2008 6:03pm
I'm noticing something. I think. I have a 34 sma (close) on several of my charts but have never bothered with it much. Just kind of a rough direction on my MT4 charts that I hardly ever trade off of.

Lately I have noticed it has been very accurate, at least on the 5m. Maybe it always has been and it was me being myopic, or maybe the cosmic alignment is better this month.

Just thought I'd mention it, as I have entered several trades on that basis alone now, and they're all doing very well.
FUBAR...
  • #36,363
  • Oct 2, 2008 6:13pm Oct 2, 2008 6:13pm
Quoting ak4x
I'm noticing something. I think. I have a 34 sma (close) on several of my charts but have never bothered with it much. Just kind of a rough direction on my MT4 charts that I hardly ever trade off of.

Lately I have noticed it has been very accurate, at least on the 5m. Maybe it always has been and it was me being myopic, or maybe the cosmic alignment is better this month.

Just thought I'd mention it, as I have entered several trades on that basis alone now, and they're all doing very well.
How are you using the 34 sma?
  • #36,364
  • Oct 2, 2008 6:31pm Oct 2, 2008 6:31pm
Iceberg, dead ahead. Hit and sink or plow through it....
  • #36,365
  • Oct 2, 2008 6:42pm Oct 2, 2008 6:42pm
Quoting c-note
How are you using the 34 sma?
Like this, current shorts are from 3823 EU and 145.58 EJ using this trigger...

If price is dropping down to it from above and I think it will stall there, and I'm anywhere near my TP or scale out level, I'll use it as well. Or I'm starting to, sometimes, it's a toss up.
Attached Images
FUBAR...
  • #36,366
  • Oct 2, 2008 6:46pm Oct 2, 2008 6:46pm
Quoting ak4x
Like this, current shorts are from 3823 EU and 145.58 EJ using this trigger...

If price is dropping down to it from above and I think it will stall there, and I'm anywhere near my TP or scale out level, I'll use it as well. Or I'm starting to, sometimes, it's a toss up.
To be clear, I'm only seeing this on the 5m at this time, a little on the 15m, and I don't bother with it much excpept for basic directional reference above that.

Malcolmb14, who used to visit here some, swears by it on the 15m and 1hr... Funny thing, he's a scary good GY trader, and EU beat him up...

And thar she drops... should have listened to myself better.
FUBAR...
  • #36,367
  • Oct 2, 2008 6:50pm Oct 2, 2008 6:50pm
Nothing but red... beautiful.


Hmmmn, 10 minutes to asia open... be very careful here guys...

all the hair on my neck just stood straight up... That's one of my discretionary indi's.
FUBAR...
  • #36,368
  • Edited 7:09pm Oct 2, 2008 6:57pm | Edited 7:09pm
Quoting ak4x
I'm noticing something. I think. I have a 34 sma (close) on several of my charts but have never bothered with it much. Just kind of a rough direction on my MT4 charts that I hardly ever trade off of.

Lately I have noticed it has been very accurate, at least on the 5m. Maybe it always has been and it was me being myopic, or maybe the cosmic alignment is better this month.

Just thought I'd mention it, as I have entered several trades on that basis alone now, and they're all doing very well.
I don't know exactly why, but the sma34 is usually a "bouncing" place, I use it with BBs and there is almost always a retracement of moves from there even if afterwards it follows on.
  • #36,369
  • Oct 2, 2008 6:59pm Oct 2, 2008 6:59pm
EUR/USD: Oct 2 08.
Here's what I am speculating;

The US is comfortable with the Euro sitting around 1.5000 And were pissed when it reached 1.6000.
SO...
US Gov talks to Dependant Countries & advises them that it would be prudent to Buy USD.
After all, The US Still Holds the Cards (for now)

Who TF knows where this Market is going, but, I have a theory that sends EUR/USD to 1.255x
THEN
Holds it in a range between a low) wall of
1.25xx
& a High of
1.50xx

AND That, my Friends, is where we will pad our accounts.
Typically absurd Bemac post, but, presently, I see that that is where the Fruit lies.
GL to ALL...
  • #36,370
  • Oct 2, 2008 7:04pm Oct 2, 2008 7:04pm
Quoting Bemac
EUR/USD: Oct 2 08.
Here's what I am speculating... I have a theory that sends EUR/USD to 1.255x
Off hand, do you have a number handy as to where you think that would correlate to oil price? Does the $80 number sound right? Higher, lower?
FUBAR...
  • #36,371
  • Oct 2, 2008 7:14pm Oct 2, 2008 7:14pm
Quoting doblece
I don't know exactly why, but the sma34 is usually a "bouncing" place
This is so weird, I may have a new toy...
FUBAR...
  • #36,372
  • Oct 2, 2008 7:45pm Oct 2, 2008 7:45pm
Quoting Maarten999
This is weird. The dollar is strengthing against all major currencies, while there really is no fundamental reason for the dollar to strengthen. They spend the last months hunderd of billions of dollars that they don't have, and therefore just create them out of thin air. So.... what is going on here? Guess the guys at the FED are really busy now

Maarten
Well, if you've been around long enough you'll know that markets anticipate fundamentals. You read this right, markets are much faster than economics.

The dollar has been rallying to the disbelief of many economists, analysts and traders. Everyone is scratching his head as to why EURUSD isn't trading above 1.60 yet. Some desperate souls are even waiting for the dollar to depreciate sharply soon due to the bad financial crisis we are into.

I've been a dollar bull for over a year and if you look up my prior posts, you'll see that for yourself.

The trend has changed rapidly from up to down. IMO we are due for a multi-year downtrend with this pair.

As much as the US economy is in trouble, at least they have been acting swiftly to tackle their economic woes. The FED slashed down rates, injected billions of cash into the economy, purchased stakes into troubled financial institutions and is about to approve an historic $700 billion rescue plan to shore up confidence in the banking industry.

I am not judging the actions of the FED, all I am saying is that they have been trying to make things better. These are people who work 24/7 even on weekends.

On the other side of the world, you have Europe who doesn't really have a central bank that can take care of things the way the FED does.

Even today Mr. Trichet reminded everyone how his mandate imposes him to keep inflation under control.

I doubt it that the EU is immune to this global financial crisis. The Fortis rescue by the Benelux governments is a clear proof that the flu has hit European shores as well and is knocking at the door now.

Now, think about this:

You have the two biggest economies in the world facing financial trouble.

Would you rather sit your assets into the more structured, more united, and more credible - at least off its track record - economy, or place it somewhere else where decisions are tough to make due to the many differences of language, culture, rivarly, etc.

The EURUSD downtrend is simply anticipating what's going to wind out in the next few years.

It's a totally new ball game today.

I agree that things changed very quickly, but as traders we need to accept reality and adapt to what the market is telling us.
  • #36,373
  • Oct 2, 2008 7:56pm Oct 2, 2008 7:56pm
Quoting ItalianSharp
Well, if you've been around long enough you'll know that markets anticipate fundamentals. You read this right, markets are much faster than economics.
Great post and to go along with that take a look at the weekly dollar chart it just a made higher high today.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1222995618
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1222995618
Attached Images
  • #36,374
  • Oct 2, 2008 7:57pm Oct 2, 2008 7:57pm
Quoting ItalianSharp
Well, if you've been around long enough you'll know that markets anticipate fundamentals. You read this right, markets are much faster than economics.

I agree that things changed very quickly, but as traders we need to accept reality and adapt to what the market is telling us.


Excellent.
FUBAR...
  • #36,375
  • Oct 2, 2008 8:00pm Oct 2, 2008 8:00pm
Pair broke 1.38 and the trend line.
  • #36,376
  • Oct 2, 2008 8:05pm Oct 2, 2008 8:05pm
Here's a popular thread based upon the 34sma and 5 min. charts...plus other stuff:


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=77850



Quoting ak4x
I'm noticing something. I think. I have a 34 sma (close) on several of my charts but have never bothered with it much. Just kind of a rough direction on my MT4 charts that I hardly ever trade off of.

Lately I have noticed it has been very accurate, at least on the 5m. Maybe it always has been and it was me being myopic, or maybe the cosmic alignment is better this month.

Just thought I'd mention it, as I have entered several trades on that basis alone now, and they're all doing very well.
  • #36,377
  • Oct 2, 2008 8:10pm Oct 2, 2008 8:10pm
if anyone is watching the debate its hilarious....the grumpy old man as he is portrayed and the soccer mom with her friendly neighbor next door talk...i wonder which will the general public like more...the guy who knows in full detail everything thats going on or the mommy who has like 10kids and doesnt even know what the bailout plan consists of...hmm


on another note...we are in neutral dangerous territory...the wall has been broken!...waaa my short...i shall let it stop me out

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #36,378
  • Oct 2, 2008 8:26pm Oct 2, 2008 8:26pm
Quoting psiholog


on another note...we are in neutral dangerous territory...the wall has been broken!...waaa my short...i shall let it stop me out

Attachment
wat does it mean when the wall is broken? generally i take it to mean that its safe to go long (which i am) but i feel like you're interpreting it differently and id like to get ur take.
  • #36,379
  • Oct 2, 2008 8:28pm Oct 2, 2008 8:28pm
[quote=psiholog;2256906]if anyone is watching the debate its hilarious....the grumpy old man as he is portrayed and the soccer mom with her friendly neighbor next door talk...i wonder which will the general public like more...the guy who knows in full detail everything thats going on or the mommy who has like 10kids and doesnt even know what the bailout plan consists of...hmm


quote]
Always getting your jabs in...you related to Pelosi?
  • #36,380
  • Oct 2, 2008 8:31pm Oct 2, 2008 8:31pm
Quoting bigandrich
Always getting your jabs in...you related to Pelosi?
im romanian born and raised ive just lived here half my life...i am neutral but very liberal
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
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