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  • #36,341
  • Oct 2, 2008 4:28pm Oct 2, 2008 4:28pm
Quoting acumen
You've got some great points.

Thanks.

Mike

PS - Just curious. How wide is your stop?
40 to 50 pips depending on my timeframe.
  • #36,342
  • Oct 2, 2008 4:36pm Oct 2, 2008 4:36pm
..... just to ensure that I do what I write here.

Short 1.3915 TP 1.3750
Short 1.3850 TP 1.3825
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  • #36,343
  • Oct 2, 2008 4:36pm Oct 2, 2008 4:36pm
Quoting psiholog
this is how i see things currently...things are getting tighter and tigher..i am still short (again) considering how strong that upper wall has been...my 40 pip stop loss is more then adequate and a real breakout would take me out. i see this trend continuing within the bigger triangle/wedge in a slow downwards movement at least until asian session where fireworks may happen. on that note i am going to sleep cya all

Attachment
I very much agree with you. My trading for day is long over. I will be alive and ready for the London open. Have a great day of trading for what is left of it..
  • #36,344
  • Oct 2, 2008 4:39pm Oct 2, 2008 4:39pm
ak4x do you mind posting those pivots, the e/j as well if you don't mind. Thanks
  • #36,345
  • Oct 2, 2008 4:40pm Oct 2, 2008 4:40pm
Tomorrow is a big day for news events. Extreme awareness will serve us well. Having said that, as we move towards the open of the Asian session, here are two charts to keep things in perspective.....the Monthly and the 1 Hour.

The Monthly chart shows the trendline we are all aware of. It also shows a red line which is previous resistance, and maybe now support. The high price for the candle this is based upon is 1.3665. Keep this in mind.

The Hourly chart shows Fibonacci extensions applied to a pinch in the Bollinger band. Note the 400% level is in the area of 1.3667.....say 1.3665!

The current high for this session is 1.3823 and 1.3665 is only 158 pips down, well with the daily range average, which is well over 200 pips.

The overall trend is down. Consensus is that passage of the infamous bill will strengthen the dollar against other currencies, since it represents "solution" to our big problem, something other nations have yet to do for their similar problems. The bill may not get passed, and then there is the NFP release, too. Mid to late morning is going to be an interesting time, as NFP will be out and all will be waiting to see what happens on the bill. If NFP is not bad, and as the House is voting, I can imagine this 1.3665 area will be an easy target, ......even if the voting has not started.

Anyway, keep the 1.3665 area in mind in case the price starts a strong move down, as it is an obvious target, though maybe not the last one.

Now, if things go badly, I can still see the big money players knocking the price down to 1.3665 area, as it may not be a huge move, before they start a serious run up.

Just food for thought.
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  • #36,346
  • Oct 2, 2008 4:46pm Oct 2, 2008 4:46pm
Quoting piptechnician
That is amazing. I have not had that kind of discipline. Working on it.
It wasn't discipline, it was amazement. Seriously tho, how often do you hear people say "they exit too early?" Solution... scale out so you're not completely exiting. It's much easier to develop the discipline when you're in the green. Red makes you desperate... You plan your scale out, and let the things run to wherever.

If I want 20 or 40 pips out of a trade, I'll get that and call the rest gravy. The trade is paid for, profit banked and secure, and greed is not an issue, becuz now it's "free pips" beyond my initial trade target. See the difference? I set them and forget them (mostly), leaving me free to pursue new entries or monitor existing trades.

I currently have the remains of 5 trades running that range from .10 to .30 of a lot that I don't really think about. Current pip totals on the crumbs range from 200ish on Gy to 340 on EJ and 192 & 270 on EU, plus 2 "real" full size trades running that I do think about.

Try it on a few trades and see what happens.
FUBAR...
  • #36,347
  • Oct 2, 2008 4:51pm Oct 2, 2008 4:51pm
I see another trend line just above the one everybody is drawing. You have to go on the one hour to see it. It only works out to about 7 to 8 pips but could lead to false breaks.
  • #36,348
  • Oct 2, 2008 4:58pm Oct 2, 2008 4:58pm
nearing the end ... of the triangle that is. lets see if we're on a fast ride down, or headed towards the top.
  • #36,349
  • Oct 2, 2008 4:59pm Oct 2, 2008 4:59pm
Pivots for today.
Attached Images
FUBAR...
  • #36,350
  • Oct 2, 2008 5:02pm Oct 2, 2008 5:02pm
Quoting ak4x
Pivots for today.
pardon the noobish question.

I know what R1-R3, S1-S3 and PP represent.

what does "M" represent?
  • #36,351
  • Oct 2, 2008 5:02pm Oct 2, 2008 5:02pm
i would like to try put long this evenin
with SL of course.

reason nfp
  • #36,352
  • Oct 2, 2008 5:15pm Oct 2, 2008 5:15pm
Quoting kasper
pardon the noobish question. what does "M" represent?
No problem.

M is the Mid points between the "main" pivots. Central pivot is something I learned from a great trader named the Dove Alliance last year on the UJ thread. It's simply the opening price at 5pm.

When there is a wide gap between the Daily pivot (DP or PP) and the Central, I often calculate the mid point of that range as well, and plot it on my chart.
You'd be surprised how often price may stall or turn on that "invisible" pivot...

PS In my experience, UJ tends to the main pivots and EU tends to the mid pivots. Not a hard and fast thing tho, especially in this market.
FUBAR...
  • #36,353
  • Oct 2, 2008 5:18pm Oct 2, 2008 5:18pm
This is weird. The dollar is strengthing against all major currencies, while there really is no fundamental reason for the dollar to strengthen. They spend the last months hunderd of billions of dollars that they don't have, and therefore just create them out of thin air. So.... what is going on here? Guess the guys at the FED are really busy now

Maarten
  • #36,354
  • Oct 2, 2008 5:37pm Oct 2, 2008 5:37pm
Quoting Maarten999
This is weird. The dollar is strengthing against all major currencies, while there really is no fundamental reason for the dollar to strengthen. They spend the last months hunderd of billions of dollars that they don't have, and therefore just create them out of thin air. So.... what is going on here? Guess the guys at the FED are really busy now

Maarten
If USD is air what backs the EUR
  • #36,355
  • Oct 2, 2008 5:38pm Oct 2, 2008 5:38pm
Maarten, i think you are right. Some rationality may arise after the 700 B is aproved. However the oil price is the main driver of the currency pair.
  • #36,356
  • Oct 2, 2008 5:44pm Oct 2, 2008 5:44pm
Quoting ak4x
Just added medium heavy shorts at 3823 EU and 145.58 EJ... It bumped up against the 15m 34sma, and hasn't flipped the gann yet, so I'm in... will scale out at/near the figure tho, as usual, and see what happens.
40% off the table on EJ, 25% off EU, 40 pips EU, and 60 pips EJ, SL at +3.

EU perfect stall at M2, EJ stalled just below M2 at exact same moment as EU and GY.

Price sat there at those levels for like an hour, anybody else in?
FUBAR...
  • #36,357
  • Oct 2, 2008 5:48pm Oct 2, 2008 5:48pm
Quoting ak4x
40% off the table on EJ, 25% off EU, 40 pips EU, and 60 pips EJ, SL at +3.

EU perfect stall at M2, EJ stalled just below M2 at exact same moment as EU and GY.

Price sat there at those levels for like an hour, anybody else in?
still have 50% open in EJ, I'd like to hold until Asia opens...I'm flat other than that, with triggers waiting in multiple areas on multiple pairs.
  • #36,358
  • Oct 2, 2008 5:49pm Oct 2, 2008 5:49pm
Quoting MrLiquidity
Maarten, i think you are right. Some rationality may arise after the 700 B is aproved. However the oil price is the main driver of the currency pair.
Don't forget Trichet...

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/02/mark...ion=2008100217
  • #36,359
  • Oct 2, 2008 5:50pm Oct 2, 2008 5:50pm
The MQL4 Code Base has several MetaTrader4 indicators for pivots.....

http://codebase.mql4.com/indicators/page1

I have attached the one I use.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Pivot_AllLevels.mq4   5 KB | 550 downloads
  • #36,360
  • Oct 2, 2008 5:55pm Oct 2, 2008 5:55pm
I just got my first Live Forex account funded. WOO HOO. Now I can trade for real

It feels exactly the same as when I was demo trading

This is great
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