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  • #36,121
  • Oct 2, 2008 8:47am Oct 2, 2008 8:47am
Quoting BoredToLoose
One thing though. I'm always very cautious about trading when Trichet speaks or during NFP and rate announcements. So I sat out of this trade. I could have make a lot of pips but ohh well, there is always another day.

Also, it will be interesting to see what happens if the bail out fails to pass the house of reps. Not sure what will happen LOL.
  • #36,122
  • Oct 2, 2008 8:50am Oct 2, 2008 8:50am
Quoting PipGal
You are thinking 50% retrace of the last move down, right? I have that as well.
Yeah, additionally the 50% of the big move up between 2005-2008
  • #36,123
  • Oct 2, 2008 8:52am Oct 2, 2008 8:52am
Wow look at the USD Unemployment Claims....
  • #36,124
  • Oct 2, 2008 8:52am Oct 2, 2008 8:52am
Quoting altrader
One thing though. I'm always very cautious about trading when Trichet speaks or during NFP and rate announcements. So I sat out of this trade. I could have make a lot of pips but ohh well, there is always another day.

Also, it will be interesting to see what happens if the bail out fails to pass the house of reps. Not sure what will happen LOL.
It is danger as you know trading during this period, but the sentiment it is very Bearish for Euro.
For My today trade I have enter after my short line was not broken at 1.3930, I enter at 1.3915 put SL 1.3933 let it go, because Sentiment+bias it is too strong to go opposite.
I have told here too not be afraid of shorting!
Now I have no position open, I am waiting to see where this H4 will close.
  • #36,125
  • Oct 2, 2008 8:53am Oct 2, 2008 8:53am
Well it's pretty basic. I rely a lot on fibs, support/resistance, trendlines too but more as a guide. I feel horizontal S/R is more important than diagonal.
I look for accurate entry's, I usually only use a 30 pip stop. Risk a little for a lot. I also trade patterns. The great thing about trading longer term is I don't have to live in front of my computer. Although I do it anyway.
  • #36,126
  • Oct 2, 2008 8:57am Oct 2, 2008 8:57am
Quoting Russell
Well it's pretty basic. I rely a lot on fibs, support/resistance, trendlines too but more as a guide. I feel horizontal S/R is more important than diagonal.
I look for accurate entry's, I usually only use a 30 pip stop. Risk a little for a lot. I also trade patterns. The great thing about trading longer term is I don't have to live in front of my computer. Although I do it anyway.
Thanks a lot. I'm looking for a long term strategy as well...
so for you, no Price Action, no EMAs, no oscillators? Which time frame you look at? Weekly or daily?
  • #36,127
  • Oct 2, 2008 8:59am Oct 2, 2008 8:59am
Any serious fib sudents out there... what am I looking at here? Anyone know anything about that Tom Demark fib thingie Suntrader mentioned once. I think that's what it was. Is this like that or close?

The price is uncanny in how it's respecting these levels. Feel free to pm me. I stumbled onto this on a whim, pulling a fib from the opposite ends of the swing cycle and had to do a double take...
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #36,128
  • Oct 2, 2008 8:59am Oct 2, 2008 8:59am
Quoting Jay Walker
I like it here but there is lots of noise and other people's opinions started to influence my trade. That explains why I've been posting less recently, but I'm better off from it.
That was a helluva post AK4X. It's always good to recalibrate from time to time.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #36,129
  • Oct 2, 2008 8:59am Oct 2, 2008 8:59am
Quoting BoredToLoose
It is danger as you know trading during this period, but the sentiment it is very Bearish for Euro.
For My today trade I have enter after my short line was not broken at 1.3930, I enter at 1.3915 put SL 1.3933 let it go, because Sentiment+bias it is too strong to go opposite.
I have told here too not be afraid of shorting!
Now I have no position open, I am waiting to see where this H4 will close.
That's an interesting way to think about it. For me though I'm still a little extra cautious about what is going on these days. This is probably filtering into my mind also since I'm going to be trading with a live account soon. But yeah I see where you are coming from
  • #36,130
  • Oct 2, 2008 9:02am Oct 2, 2008 9:02am
short ej from 45.70 while eu catches it's breath (TP 45.30)
FUBAR...
  • #36,131
  • Oct 2, 2008 9:04am Oct 2, 2008 9:04am
Quoting eraserhead
Thanks a lot. I'm looking for a long term strategy as well...
so for you, no Price Action, no EMAs, no oscillators? Which time frame you look at? Weekly or daily?
I watch them all from monthly all the way down to the 1 min. I mostly use
4hr and 1hr for the setups and to gauge market flow.(Higher highs lower lows = up, Lower highs and lower lows = down) Once I figure that out I drill down to the lower time frames. Keep it simple, you know?
  • #36,132
  • Oct 2, 2008 9:04am Oct 2, 2008 9:04am
factory orders dropped to -4% the lowest in almost a year

I guess a push for 1.383-.385 is very possible right now.
  • #36,133
  • Oct 2, 2008 9:05am Oct 2, 2008 9:05am
Isnt this the limit of downfall i think that market will go up from here as this is the least euro can drop correct me if im wronge
  • #36,134
  • Oct 2, 2008 9:07am Oct 2, 2008 9:07am
Quoting altrader
Wow look at the USD Unemployment Claims....
No adverse news has any effect on the downward momentum.
  • #36,135
  • Oct 2, 2008 9:07am Oct 2, 2008 9:07am
Quoting viny rulez
Isnt this the limit of downfall i think that market will go up from here as this is the least euro can drop correct me if im wronge
Expect the unexpected and be ready to protect your capital with stop-losses.
  • #36,136
  • Oct 2, 2008 9:09am Oct 2, 2008 9:09am
.... for every one who shorted at 1.3810, because that trade was only for 40 pips, and did not close put SL BE or if want to assume the risk SL 1.3888.
Price can go to 1.3850/60 area in the next H4.
Here is where we must Entry short with SL 1.3888.

If we go to 1.39 today it is very Strong rejection of this levels, Time to think!
  • #36,137
  • Oct 2, 2008 9:11am Oct 2, 2008 9:11am
Quoting viny rulez
Isnt this the limit of downfall i think that market will go up from here as this is the least euro can drop correct me if im wronge

Thats what they said about a year ago in zimbabwae, now thanks to hyperinflation and their government consistently printing money on a regular basis their money is worthless, I think 1,000 USD is equivalent to a couple trillion their currency lol... anwyays my point is, it can get much worse.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/02/wo...se&oref=slogin
  • #36,138
  • Oct 2, 2008 9:12am Oct 2, 2008 9:12am
Quoting viny rulez
Isnt this the limit of downfall i think that market will go up from here as this is the least euro can drop correct me if im wronge
I dont see it is going to stop here.
My gut feeling tells me there will be another push down.
  • #36,139
  • Oct 2, 2008 9:14am Oct 2, 2008 9:14am
Quoting Russell
I watch them all from monthly all the way down to the 1 min. I mostly use
4hr and 1hr for the setups and to gauge market flow.(Higher highs lower lows = up, Lower highs and lower lows = down) Once I figure that out I drill down to the lower time frames. Keep it simple, you know?
Thanks Russell, I'm gonna check your previous post and come back to some more questions.

I still can not understand how a guy can keep short positions, like you did, after the recent big retracement of the sounth trend (1.38 to 1.48). If I understand well you kept your short position open...am I right?
  • #36,140
  • Oct 2, 2008 9:17am Oct 2, 2008 9:17am
Quoting BoredToLoose
.... for every one who shorted at 1.3810, because that trade was only for 40 pips, and did not close put SL BE or if want to assume the risk SL 1.3888.
Price can go to 1.3850/60 area in the next H4.
Here is where we must Entry short with SL 1.3888.

If we go to 1.39 today it is very Strong rejection of this levels, Time to think!
I doubt it can touch 1.39 again.
At least not today
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