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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #1,921
  • Sep 30, 2008 8:45am Sep 30, 2008 8:45am
Looks like we have a bearish hidden divergence on 1hr GBP/JPY MACD and also RSI. Looks overbought. Any comments? Though the MMOD is UP for the main 3 Yen crosses. USDX shooting up like a rocket.
  • #1,922
  • Sep 30, 2008 12:33pm Sep 30, 2008 12:33pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
Hello Mr. Toshchakov,

Long time don't see.

I took a long position yesterday night on UJ and binded my stops below the months low.

I was getting 103.53 as Septembers low. Price reached 103.52. My SL was almost hit. Actually I was saved by the spread difference.

Would you consider this one pip difference significant as to say we changed the main move? Could it just be my feed?

Best,

JP.
We didn't change anything. The direction of September has been down since the fourth of September. Your stop level just had no significance.
  • #1,923
  • Edited 1:34pm Sep 30, 2008 1:22pm | Edited 1:34pm
Yes yes!!

Of course....

I was looking at something else when I asked this question....

Sorry, I posted it wrongly... Trading, working and posting... to much to do altogether.

My apologies.

My bad...

I 'll erase it.

Anyways... Talking about the UJ pair... SL below todays low.

my bad...
  • #1,924
  • Edited 8:22pm Sep 30, 2008 2:07pm | Edited 8:22pm
I took the liberty to gather information regarding USDx and EU and plot the attached graphs.

I find it interesting that in the latest years look very much alike in angles of the segments despite the fact that only in 2006 EU stood below both averages (5 & 10 yrs).

So looking at the last leg on USDx it should look something around flat or even pointing up if compared to EU and both pairs recent history.

I know this is pure speculation, but I believe we might be prone to observe some range expansion on USDx still this year and if so, maybe expansion rate as well in EU?

We are presently about ~100 points from year high on USDx and so we might make it this year and maybe expand towards the top.

I don't have a good feed for USDx. Is there any trendline or sigificant barrier ahead of price?

I'd like to hear some comments.

Best,

JP.

PS: By the way, the market provided an up move close to 200 points just today.
PPS: We are currently 190-200 pips from this years low and so from the trendline (monthly EU TL). Would another touch of the trendline mean "The Kiss of Death"?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU_USDx_comparison.jpg Size: 50 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU_USDx_comparison_10yr_avg.jpg Size: 52 KB
  • #1,925
  • Edited 8:45am Oct 1, 2008 3:46am | Edited 8:45am
Looks like we will have a crossover on the MACD 4hr GBP/JPY for the bullish divergence. RSI confirms it as well. Now my queston would be: the MMOD for GBP/JPY is down, so would you trade against this possible divergence short with SL above todays high and with reverse order ready incase of MM change, or would you invalidate the short option and look into a buying opp rather?

Thank you for your time Igrok.

edit: nice 18.4 on both gj and ej. no divergence was present i guess.
  • #1,926
  • Oct 1, 2008 9:22am Oct 1, 2008 9:22am
Quoting belekas
Looks like we will have a crossover on the MACD 4hr GBP/JPY for the bullish divergence. RSI confirms it as well. Now my queston would be: the MMOD for GBP/JPY is down, so would you trade against this possible divergence short with SL above todays high and with reverse order ready incase of MM change, or would you invalidate the short option and look into a buying opp rather?

Thank you for your time Igrok.

edit: nice 18.4 on both gj and ej. no divergence was present i guess.
There was nothing there. MACD is the primary tool.
  • #1,927
  • Oct 1, 2008 9:33am Oct 1, 2008 9:33am
Quoting Igrok
There was nothing there. MACD is the primary tool.
Yes, thanks for claryfing this up. Cheers
  • #1,928
  • Edited 12:55pm Oct 1, 2008 10:05am | Edited 12:55pm
Mr Toshchakov,

As I took very profitable trades today using 18.4 (UJ, EJ, GJ for example).

I chose a 20% R/R compared to the ADR. Before my entry level was triggered, I wondered if you had other entry levels based on other R/Rs?

For example, a 10% R/R would possibly mean more trouble for the entry for it would be closer to HH and thus the pullback would have to be much more agressive for the programmed order to be triggered.

A 30% R/R would mean quite the opposite. A less agressive pullback would be needed.

So my question is, do you place multiple orders in multiple levels considering different R/Rs? If you do, is your max 40%?

I ask 40%, because of your 2007 article on Currency Trader.

Thanx.
JP.
  • #1,929
  • Oct 1, 2008 10:26am Oct 1, 2008 10:26am
Hi Jupiter_peak,

Can you highlight yr entry price for your UJ, EJ, GJ trade ?
Keep it simple and sweet !
  • #1,930
  • Oct 1, 2008 3:33pm Oct 1, 2008 3:33pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
Mr Toshchakov,

As I took very profitable trades today using 18.4 (UJ, EJ, GJ for example).

I chose a 20% R/R compared to the ADR. Before my entry level was triggered, I wondered if you had other entry levels based on other R/Rs?

For example, a 10% R/R would possibly mean more trouble for the entry for it would be closer to HH and thus the pullback would have to be much more agressive for the programmed order to be triggered.

A 30% R/R would mean quite the opposite. A less agressive pullback would be needed.

So my question is, do you place multiple orders in multiple levels considering different R/Rs? If you do, is your max 40%?

I ask 40%, because of your 2007 article on Currency Trader.

Thanx.
JP.
I don't do that. I take only those positions whenever the risk is less or equal to 1% of the capital under management and usually choose one particular pair with more obvious target and less risk involved. I also haven't made a single trade on GJ for over the last 6-7 years after once I realized that I just paid over a quarter of a mio for a round-turn spread only. That's too much, I guess. Since then I stopped trading this pair regardless of a position size.
  • #1,931
  • Oct 1, 2008 6:20pm Oct 1, 2008 6:20pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
As I took very profitable trades today using 18.4 (UJ, EJ, GJ for example).
Thanx.
JP.
I can see how the price came beautifully back to open of day prices on a few pairs(not just the ones you've mentioned) but the EJ.

What decided that trade?

But i do agree on these being high probability trades. Not sure on stop levels tho.
  • #1,932
  • Edited 9:56pm Oct 1, 2008 8:53pm | Edited 9:56pm
Quoting Blackinc
I can see how the price came beautifully back to open of day prices on a few pairs(not just the ones you've mentioned) but the EJ.

What decided that trade?

But i do agree on these being high probability trades. Not sure on stop levels tho.
Well, I was following price during the Asian session and as soon as the High was made ( at about 50% of the ADR on all 3 pairs almost simoultaneously) I waited a little more. So I made sure the MM (main move) was down before I went to sleep.

I was very tired and I knew I could not follow thru to watch the European session and thus wait for the European pairs to choose direction or make its OR (opening range).

So I placed the short orders considering 20% of the whole ADR as my entry (from the high of the day)and SL + 1 pips above the HH. My targets were calculated by subtracting the entry difference from the high of the day and subtracting this difference from the 60 day ADR.

Lets take UJ for example:

The High was 106.52 early during the Asian session. So once that was clear to me, I knew MM was down. 60 day ADR for was 133. So, 20% of 133 meant roughly 27 pips.

Like this I went:

Entry: 106.52 - 29 pips (20% of ADR -1 pip (SL) - 3 pips(spread)) = 106.23
SL: 106.52 + 1 pip = 106.53
TP: 106.52 (H. of day) - 106.23 (entry) = 29 pips : 133 (ADR) - 29 pips = 104 pips : 106.23 (entry) - 1.04 = 105.19. So TP would be 105.19.

However I had a bigger floating profit during the day, this pair did not complete its ADR of 133. It stayed at 118 pips. I close at 70 pips before end of the day.

All three trades were planned/calculated and executed exactly as the UJ trade. On the other two trades (GJ and EJ), both pairs completed range and I took profit just as mentioned above.

These trades ( and other that I saw) were very alike the one published last year by Mr. Toshchakov on "Currency Trader" Mag. Of course, timing on these trades was different as Asian pairs make range faster while at the Asian session.

I could have chosen to use 10% of the 60 day ADR for entry. In that case, my entry order would not have been triggered by 1 pip!! the HH of the pullback was 106.36. Entry order using 10% of the ADR would be at 106.37!!! So anywhere between 11%-15% would have minimized risk a little bit.

Still need to do some fine ajustments. And as Mr. Toshchakov says, have in mind your capital before entering.

I have to say I was very happy with these trades and I am very happy to have met Mr. Toshchakov and this thread. I thank him very much for his valuable efforts.

Cheers to all.

JP.
  • #1,933
  • Oct 2, 2008 2:33am Oct 2, 2008 2:33am
Jupiter_peak,

Thank you for the wonderful post above. I have been pestering you to explain it to me.. lol !!! Finally let the cat out of the bag
Keep it simple and sweet !
  • #1,934
  • Edited 4:14am Oct 2, 2008 2:56am | Edited 4:14am
Todays there has been wonderfull trades on all JPY crosses, such a shame my internet connection was down. Hope you guys caught them ;-)
  • #1,935
  • Edited 3:51am Oct 2, 2008 3:16am | Edited 3:51am
Can we say that MMOD for EUR/USD and GBP/USD is down? And the ranges HH was formed in the Asian session? Or the HH is not significant in % from ADR, and we actually formed a LL right now on GBP/USD that is a little less then 50% of its ADR. Looks like a #18.4 on GBP/USD
  • #1,936
  • Edited 6:06am Oct 2, 2008 5:00am | Edited 6:06am
Kiwi and Aussy looks like #18.4 though i might be wrong. But theres a possible bullish divergence on 30m/1hr aussy, still unconfirmed though.
  • #1,937
  • Oct 2, 2008 8:52am Oct 2, 2008 8:52am
Looks like Euro has finally broken that Trendline going back to 2002 and breached the yearly Low.

Wonder where to now, were running out of TL's !
  • #1,938
  • Oct 2, 2008 5:46pm Oct 2, 2008 5:46pm
Nice trades on #18.1 and #18.4 today. Precious templates and thank you Mr Igrok for this method one more time.

Cheers!
  • #1,939
  • Oct 2, 2008 9:15pm Oct 2, 2008 9:15pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
I took the liberty to gather information regarding USDx and EU and plot the attached graphs.

I find it interesting that in the latest years look very much alike in angles of the segments despite the fact that only in 2006 EU stood below both averages (5 & 10 yrs).

So looking at the last leg on USDx it should look something around flat or even pointing up if compared to EU and both pairs recent history.

I know this is pure speculation, but I believe we might be prone to observe some range expansion on USDx still this year and if so, maybe expansion rate as well in EU?

We are presently about ~100 points from year high on USDx and so we might make it this year and maybe expand towards the top.

I don't have a good feed for USDx. Is there any trendline or sigificant barrier ahead of price?

I'd like to hear some comments.

Best,

JP.

PS: By the way, the market provided an up move close to 200 points just today.
PPS: We are currently 190-200 pips from this years low and so from the trendline (monthly EU TL). Would another touch of the trendline mean "The Kiss of Death"?
Quote
Looks like Euro has finally broken that Trendline going back to 2002 and breached the yearly Low.

Wonder where to now, were running out of TL's !


I Guess we had to see that last leg on the USDx graph go up a little...

Kiss of Death came right by....
:nerd:
  • #1,940
  • Oct 3, 2008 1:35am Oct 3, 2008 1:35am
It seem that all the majors have changed the direction of the main move of the year except for UJ. I wonder whether it will also be able to catch up with others over the next three months.
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