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  • #36,021
  • Oct 2, 2008 3:07am Oct 2, 2008 3:07am
Attached M15 chart shows price sitting on fib extension level of 100%. Since range is still low compared to average and since the longer term trend is down, I should not be surprised if it goes down to the 162% level at 1.3840 after this pullback (pullup) to the 62% level.

At this point, with a good run down already under its belt, it could go either way.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurodollar m15 #5 10-01-08.gif Size: 49 KB
  • #36,022
  • Oct 2, 2008 3:08am Oct 2, 2008 3:08am
Quoting gamemorph
I heard the bailout have been accepted!! What possibly can make EUR/USD go up now? I think we are so down and I consider closing mu long while it is stil not abig loss, damn
remember "buy on rumour, sell on fact"????

actually, anything could happen, so a straddle strategy may be the best approach, although staying well clear of the market will probably be the overall winner!
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #36,023
  • Oct 2, 2008 3:08am Oct 2, 2008 3:08am
Hello Traders

We're coming into some key/strong technical support levels.

1,3838

That level is the 138,2 extension of the current down move 1,4174/1,3931. This would represent a classic 38,2 to 138,2 move.

It is also the 50% fib retrace level for the long-term bull trend 1,1639/1.6037.

This level also meets with a long term LTL.

And last, just south of daily S2.

Food for thought traders....
Success
  • #36,024
  • Oct 2, 2008 3:08am Oct 2, 2008 3:08am
Quoting gamemorph
I heard the bailout have been accepted!! What possibly can make EUR/USD go up now? I think we are so down and I consider closing mu long while it is stil not abig loss, damn
Technicals, plus it's quite possible that it was all priced in by the recent drop. The market is likely to have expected this to happen. ECB statement is unlikely to deliver anything new either. If we cross 1.4 back up this thing is quite likely to skyrocket in the next several days. at least I believe so.
Quoting traderathome
Attached M15 chart shows price sitting on fib extension level of 100%. Since range is still low compared to average and since the longer term trend is down, I should not be surprised if it goes down to the 162% level at 1.3840 after this pullback (pullup) to the 62% level.

At this point, with a good run down already under its belt, it could go either way.
You can not ignore s/r levels on higher timeframes even if you trade lowe ones. Ussualy they're far apart and don't interfere but here there is MAJOR s/r (monthly, weekly, daily) and short term analysis like this doesn't mean much.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #36,025
  • Oct 2, 2008 3:19am Oct 2, 2008 3:19am
Quoting psiholog
3 positions long in such a bearish market???...that is not good at all =/

the way i see it you got 3 options
1)close all positions now
2)hope for a spike up as part of the volatility when the vote results are known where you exit at even
3)hedge your positions (buy shorts now in equal amount to your longs).

tough decision to make...hope it works out whatever you do


MY BROTHER.. i really thank you for this post.. it make me confident ..
Never sell @ lower upward channel unless breacked and vise versa .
  • #36,026
  • Oct 2, 2008 3:19am Oct 2, 2008 3:19am
hm, 1.3911, just 20 more pips and I will close my long even, hope that retracement wil reach it

... well didn't happened this time, waiting for one more and stop on 1.3860
  • #36,027
  • Oct 2, 2008 3:37am Oct 2, 2008 3:37am
Quoting gamemorph
hm, 1.3911, just 20 more pips and I will close my long even, hope that retracement wil reach it

... well didn't happened this time, waiting for one more and stop on 1.3860
Why will you close your long mate?
  • #36,028
  • Oct 2, 2008 3:46am Oct 2, 2008 3:46am
Attached 1 minute chart clearly shows second strike down, though not as low as lowest, did have simulaneous high relative volume. It has been trending up since, with a very large high relative volume minute about 10 minutes ago....and it is still not dumping.

It might, but I have already closed all positions and will take a break now. This has dropped to our expectations, and a bit more. So, in all rights, it is time for some upside......

Good trading to all.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurodollar min1 #1 10-01-08.gif Size: 57 KB
  • #36,029
  • Oct 2, 2008 4:12am Oct 2, 2008 4:12am
Quoting Bemac
Ahuuum...
and the few others making money.
  • #36,030
  • Oct 2, 2008 4:24am Oct 2, 2008 4:24am
Quoting acumen
and the few others making money.
acumen, i,ve been wondering a bit since morning. since daily pivot is far way, and price has hit daily S1 and move below it, does this mean we are likely to sell? does it mean it will retest daily S2 or the closest psych level.....50 or 00?
pls explain how to trade this kindda scenario.
thank you.
  • #36,031
  • Oct 2, 2008 4:29am Oct 2, 2008 4:29am
Quoting kojak
Why will you close your long mate?
I'm not a very good chartist, in fact I'm still new, watching RSI it definately shows going up, but watching the weekly candle shart, I'm afraid that this is not a double bottom but rather some of these freaky wave theories and fibonachies
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.JPG Size: 64 KB


In fact I'm a RSI trader and it have made me a lot of pips, but two major drow downs, thinking of changing the strategy
  • #36,032
  • Oct 2, 2008 5:18am Oct 2, 2008 5:18am
.... and with rate Decision today is even worse, but short is the only thing to do.
Price can start to go down to 1.3870 before rate Decision and next target is 1.3720 area.

Do not wait to see big drops after 1.3880 break, this pair will go to 1.35 with ups and downs like usually.
Until 1.35 longs are riskier than Shorts!
  • #36,033
  • Oct 2, 2008 5:19am Oct 2, 2008 5:19am
Here we go guys, the moment of truth is there....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd-longterm.GIF Size: 20 KB


Maarten
  • #36,034
  • Oct 2, 2008 5:24am Oct 2, 2008 5:24am
Quoting Maarten999
Here we go guys, the moment of truth is there....

Attachment

Maarten
Maarten!
  • #36,035
  • Oct 2, 2008 5:27am Oct 2, 2008 5:27am
Quoting BoredToLoose
Maarten!
Better?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd-longterm2.GIF Size: 20 KB


Maarten
  • #36,036
  • Oct 2, 2008 5:27am Oct 2, 2008 5:27am
Quoting BoredToLoose
Maarten!
me too
  • #36,037
  • Oct 2, 2008 5:40am Oct 2, 2008 5:40am
Quoting bayoor
acumen, i,ve been wondering a bit since morning. since daily pivot is far way, and price has hit daily S1 and move below it, does this mean we are likely to sell? does it mean it will retest daily S2 or the closest psych level.....50 or 00?
pls explain how to trade this kindda scenario.
thank you.
I see acumen is not around so I will give you some feedback: I use acumen's system to trade m15.

I am assuming you have your PP system set up on m15? So from this, the PP gives you your reference bias...clearly we are south so we look for shorts. Your pivots along with a few TL's gives you a clear sense of where price action is/has been for the last few hours.

You always want the high probability trades. And we have had 2 such trades in that same time period: typically on moves south, when price reaches the 20 psych lvl (1,3920 in this case), it has a very high probability of moving to 00. I traded this low-risk setup twice.

Remember, good trades should jump off your chart, wiggle around screaming and yelling at you. You shouldn't have to squint at the screen, searching for that perfect trade.

Success in your trading day.
  • #36,038
  • Oct 2, 2008 5:47am Oct 2, 2008 5:47am
Quoting efgsrl
I see acumen is not around so I will give you some feedback: I use acumen's system to trade m15.

I am assuming you have your PP system set up on m15? So from this, the PP gives you your reference bias...clearly we are south so we look for shorts. Your pivots along with a few TL's gives you a clear sense of where price action is/has been for the last few hours.

You always want the high probability trades. And we have had 2 such trades in that same time period: typically on moves south, when price reaches the 20 psych lvl (1,3920 in this case), it has a very high probability of moving to 00. I traded this low-risk setup twice.

Remember, good trades should jump off your chart, wiggle around screaming and yelling at you. You shouldn't have to squint at the screen, searching for that perfect trade.

Success in your trading day.
I like this comment: Remember, good trades should jump off your chart, wiggle around screaming and yelling at you. You shouldn't have to squint at the screen, searching for that perfect trade.

  • #36,039
  • Oct 2, 2008 5:49am Oct 2, 2008 5:49am
pivots are working very nicely today
  • #36,040
  • Oct 2, 2008 5:52am Oct 2, 2008 5:52am
helo,l discover that your message is inspiring and l tap from this which enable me to take profit today (TP) EUR/USD.pls reach me via [email protected] and [email protected] and l would like you to add me to your yahoomessenger/msn messenger to chat you live while trading. thanks . bye
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