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  • #35,421
  • Sep 30, 2008 8:10am Sep 30, 2008 8:10am
Quoting psiholog
i said this before and i will say it again...unless you got on the short side hours ago...its best to stay out now...trichet will talk soon and this is all build up to his speech
i'm riding this train as far as I can. I have to make up some ground.
  • #35,422
  • Sep 30, 2008 8:11am Sep 30, 2008 8:11am
Quoting mikkom
I expect some kind of bounce from 1.4, that is also my tp. I'll short more after it bounces up.
Ya... i agree. I'd say theres some pretty good resistance there. I sold out right around .4020 and I'm out for the day with a HUGE profit. Good luck everyone.
  • #35,423
  • Sep 30, 2008 8:14am Sep 30, 2008 8:14am
Yes this forum is just like a trading room, the big difference is in the trading room, we don't have to refresh the pages plus, the moderator can actually speak if he/she wanted and show the chart live. I know other popular thread have their room in the TR. I think it will be a great idea for this thread to have one.

And we may see the bottom for today if this 60 min candle is a hammer.


Quoting wasupnow14
Short since .4371 and enjoying the euro beating!! http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...currency_rates

it seems as if the U.S. isn't the only one in a bailout situation. And yes... I think a trading room would be a good idea. However, This forum pretty much is a trading room... lots of posts.
  • #35,424
  • Sep 30, 2008 8:14am Sep 30, 2008 8:14am
I'm laughing so hard at Algirdas' post:

Next Target,,,,,,,, money flow like water, we did not close no one Short position


Next Target,,, money flow like water, we did not close no one EUR/USD Short position

EUR/USD .... 1.4000
GBP/USD .... 1.7731
AUD/USD .... 0.7800
NZD/USD .... 0.6640

Alg, you are THE MAN!
  • #35,425
  • Sep 30, 2008 8:18am Sep 30, 2008 8:18am
relative?
Attached Image
  • #35,426
  • Sep 30, 2008 8:18am Sep 30, 2008 8:18am
Quoting Algirdas
Next Target:

EUR/USD .... 1.4177
GBP/USD .... 1.7931
AUD/USD .... 0.7931
NZD/USD .... 0.6651

USD/CHF .... 1.1063 retest 1.0981
USD/CAD .... 1.0600 retest 1.0433
USD/JPY .... 106.00 retest 104.57
__________________
Next Target,,, money flow like water, we did not close no one EUR/USD Short position

EUR/USD .... 1.4000
GBP/USD .... 1.7731
AUD/USD .... 0.7800
NZD/USD .... 0.6640

USD/CAD .... 1.0675
USD/JPY .... 106.31
USD/CHF .... 1.1247

Do not close no one position since yesterday
{Promotion Removed}
  • #35,427
  • Sep 30, 2008 8:20am Sep 30, 2008 8:20am
Quoting bayoor
i made some losses today.that is really shocking. where can i get to learn about pivot points?
secondly,will there be a retrace? where will the retrace possibly start?
http://www.thefxpivotpoint.com/Videos.htm

How I trade PP and psych levels.

It's free and more importantly - it works.

m
  • #35,428
  • Edited 8:37am Sep 30, 2008 8:20am | Edited 8:37am
Quoting FX-Petra
Long term trend line (monthly) from 0.8570 is near 1.3925. If that gives way then I would forget about a double bottom @ 1.39 and start thinking about a classic A-B-C EW correction wave from the top near 1.60. That would make this wave C, and where it might end would be better left to an EW expert, which I am not. Any EW guys out there that would care to comment on where a C wave might end?
Taken from here:
http://www.tradingfives.com/articles...wave-guide.htm
Quote
Classically W.C is a five wave pattern. If W.C. exceed 162% of W.A the labelling is probably wrong. The current pattern is probably impulsive.
That means that it can "at least" reach 162% of wave A.
Which could bring us around 1.2550... or 1.30 if only to 138.2 extension.

Quote
PRICE
W.C. usually 62% 100% 162% of W.A
Note; Something that brings me a little confusion is IF this represents a percentage of the total Wave A move in PIPS or is relative to fibo extensions... because if it would be calculated in pips, 100% would be 2156 pips under 1.4864 (last high) = 1.2708, while 62% would be around 1.35 and 162% waaay much lower (around 1.14 !!!) (I would stick personally to 1.35 though).
It would be nice if someone could clarify this.
  • #35,429
  • Sep 30, 2008 8:23am Sep 30, 2008 8:23am
Quoting psiholog
i said this before and i will say it again...unless you got on the short side hours ago...its best to stay out now...trichet will talk soon and this is all build up to his speech
This talk is not a very important one though.

"Due to speak after accepting the European Banker of the Year award, in Frankfurt"

I'm much more interested in the possible hourly pin bar forming just above 1.4 - might be a very good position to enter (with small risk trade).
  • #35,430
  • Sep 30, 2008 8:25am Sep 30, 2008 8:25am
retracement to 1.4150 is a high possibility..it is the upper wall of this current falling wedge and also 23.6% from the start of this strong down turn at 1.4585 yesterday...im currently long but DO NOT recommend anyone to trade against this trend

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #35,431
  • Sep 30, 2008 8:25am Sep 30, 2008 8:25am
Quoting tundy88
nice to read back from you acumen i have been trying to catch you on here. I just got back into forex after loosing close to 2,000 dollars earlier this year. Dont know if you got useful tips and advise for me.
What's your trading style?

LT,ST, day trader,S/R?

Are you using strict MM?

Are you trading during prime time or outside that window.

Start with these:

10 Steps
1) Knowledge Acquisition Great traders are voracious learners. Most professional occupations have a learning curve. Doctors, lawyers, criminals, etc.. often study years to refine their craft. Novice traders often believe they are immune to such time intensive studies. Don't fall prey to such ignorance - study the markets, put in serious chart time, read and learn from those that are winning.
2) Money Management This one is simple. Trading more then 2-5% of your account on any one trade is account suicide. Let's assume you start out trading a $1000.00 mini-account. Your system has a 30 pip stop loss. The maximum you should risk on any one trade is a dollar per pip. The market will forgive a lot of things - bad trades, bad days even bad weeks but without the capital to withstand the drawdown your trading career with be short lived.
3) Simplistic Strategy Have you ever noticed Forex scam sites often provide a unique system that only they have? Additionally - these systems are only known by a hand full of successful traders. Your system should do just the opposite. I use pivot points, psychological levels and trend line breaks because large institutions follow these levels. As a retail trader your goal should be to pick up the pennies in front of the steam rollers. Keep Occam in mind when adopting any trading system. Leave the over complicated systems to the guys at Long Term Capital.
4) Trade During Prime Time One of the biggest benefits of the currency markets is its hours. It's open 24 hours a day 5 days a week. This is great for trend analysis but not for trading. Don't let these extended hours fool you. Only the biggest players trade during the prime hours... so should you. Keep in mind that only 14% of all trades occur outside of non-financial institutions. That's where the retail trader lives. Since we only trade the EURUSD we only trade between 2:00am and 11:00am EST. This time period covers the European open and close, the open of the US session and the overlap between the US session and the European session.
5) Follow Your Trade Plan You don't know where the market is headed. Don't guess. Hope isn't a strategy. Once you adopt a trading strategy that fits your trading style stick to it. Leave your ego at the door when you begin your trading day. This is one of the most difficult things to overcome. The old adage plan your trade and trade your plan is very important. When you trade outside your plan you will lose.
6) Double Your Demo Account Almost every Forex trading platform offers demo accounts. When you can double your demo account you are ready to trade real capital. Additionally - after your double your demo account trade the first few months of you real capital using micro-lots where each pip equals a small dollar amount. This will help ease the emotional impact of trading real capital.
7) Trade with the Trend All those little axiom's about the trend exist for a reason - the trend is your friend... trade with the trend until it bends... trade the trend or lose in the end - you get the idea. These exist for a reason. They are true. Use long term trend analysis to determine market direction. When you trade with the trend your chances of success are greatly enhanced.
8) Set Realistic Expectation What's realistic? If you can return 5-8% a month you are doing great. While this may seem like a relatively small goal very few traders can achieve this month after month. If you set unrealistic goals - say 20% a month you better be sitting beside John Arnold because that's about the only way your going to see that kind of return.
9) Post Trade Analysis When the trading day is over take a few minutes to analyze what happened. Did you follow your trading plan? Was your analysis accurate? Why? Why not? At the end of the week spend some quality time looking over the trades you placed during the previous week. How many trades did you take? Are you over trading? Many traders find it advantageous to keep a journal of their trades and their thought process for taking or not taking the trade. In a very short time you will see patterns emerge that will aide you in fine tuning your trading.
10) Predetermined Profit Targets and Stops Setting your stop loss is a must. Intra-day traders usually use a 20-40 pip stop. After you've adopted a system and spent hours watching the chart you will know where your stop should be. Once you've settled in on a stop never move it. One more time - never move your stop! Remember that capital accumulation is secondary to capital preservation. On the other side of the equation set profit targets prior to entering your trade. Utilizing pivot points will always provide you with realistic profit targets.
  • #35,432
  • Sep 30, 2008 8:30am Sep 30, 2008 8:30am
Quoting acumen
What's your trading style?
http://www.thefxpivotpoint.com/Index.htm.
  • #35,433
  • Sep 30, 2008 8:33am Sep 30, 2008 8:33am
Quoting fxid10t
http://www.thefxpivotpoint.com/Index.htm.
If this is your trading style I'd say you are on the right track.

Oh sure... I'm a little biased.

m
  • #35,434
  • Sep 30, 2008 8:38am Sep 30, 2008 8:38am
Oh man,

Ever since I entered the Forex (August) it has been a roller coaster ride.
I guess this is one of reasons I like Europe session more then US.

I really hope this mess will quiet down in a while. I remember when I was learning on demo, this pair moves would actually make sence and not take out stop losses like crazy.

Sure, someone who knows forex can make fortune on this but a newbie will go down faster then ever.
  • #35,435
  • Sep 30, 2008 8:39am Sep 30, 2008 8:39am
EU and GU are falling because usd/jpy had a sharp pullback from yesterdays sell-off. I think UJ's pullback is almost over and eur/usd can continue upwards.
  • #35,436
  • Sep 30, 2008 8:41am Sep 30, 2008 8:41am
Quoting acumen
What's your trading style?

LT,ST, day trader,S/R?

Are you using strict MM?

Are you trading during prime time or outside that window.

Start with these:

10 Steps
1) Knowledge Acquisition Great traders are voracious learners. Most professional occupations have a learning curve. Doctors, lawyers, criminals, etc.. often study years to refine their craft. Novice traders often believe they are immune to such time intensive studies. Don't fall prey to such ignorance - study the markets, put in serious chart time, read and learn from those that are winning.
2) Money Management This one is simple. Trading more then 2-5% of your account on any one trade is account suicide. Let's assume you start out trading a $1000.00 mini-account. Your system has a 30 pip stop loss. The maximum you should risk on any one trade is a dollar per pip. The market will forgive a lot of things - bad trades, bad days even bad weeks but without the capital to withstand the drawdown your trading career with be short lived.
3) Simplistic Strategy Have you ever noticed Forex scam sites often provide a unique system that only they have? Additionally - these systems are only known by a hand full of successful traders. Your system should do just the opposite. I use pivot points, psychological levels and trend line breaks because large institutions follow these levels. As a retail trader your goal should be to pick up the pennies in front of the steam rollers. Keep Occam in mind when adopting any trading system. Leave the over complicated systems to the guys at Long Term Capital.
4) Trade During Prime Time One of the biggest benefits of the currency markets is its hours. It's open 24 hours a day 5 days a week. This is great for trend analysis but not for trading. Don't let these extended hours fool you. Only the biggest players trade during the prime hours... so should you. Keep in mind that only 14% of all trades occur outside of non-financial institutions. That's where the retail trader lives. Since we only trade the EURUSD we only trade between 2:00am and 11:00am EST. This time period covers the European open and close, the open of the US session and the overlap between the US session and the European session.
5) Follow Your Trade Plan You don't know where the market is headed. Don't guess. Hope isn't a strategy. Once you adopt a trading strategy that fits your trading style stick to it. Leave your ego at the door when you begin your trading day. This is one of the most difficult things to overcome. The old adage plan your trade and trade your plan is very important. When you trade outside your plan you will lose.
6) Double Your Demo Account Almost every Forex trading platform offers demo accounts. When you can double your demo account you are ready to trade real capital. Additionally - after your double your demo account trade the first few months of you real capital using micro-lots where each pip equals a small dollar amount. This will help ease the emotional impact of trading real capital.
7) Trade with the Trend All those little axiom's about the trend exist for a reason - the trend is your friend... trade with the trend until it bends... trade the trend or lose in the end - you get the idea. These exist for a reason. They are true. Use long term trend analysis to determine market direction. When you trade with the trend your chances of success are greatly enhanced.
8) Set Realistic Expectation What's realistic? If you can return 5-8% a month you are doing great. While this may seem like a relatively small goal very few traders can achieve this month after month. If you set unrealistic goals - say 20% a month you better be sitting beside John Arnold because that's about the only way your going to see that kind of return.
9) Post Trade Analysis When the trading day is over take a few minutes to analyze what happened. Did you follow your trading plan? Was your analysis accurate? Why? Why not? At the end of the week spend some quality time looking over the trades you placed during the previous week. How many trades did you take? Are you over trading? Many traders find it advantageous to keep a journal of their trades and their thought process for taking or not taking the trade. In a very short time you will see patterns emerge that will aide you in fine tuning your trading.
10) Predetermined Profit Targets and Stops Setting your stop loss is a must. Intra-day traders usually use a 20-40 pip stop. After you've adopted a system and spent hours watching the chart you will know where your stop should be. Once you've settled in on a stop never move it. One more time - never move your stop! Remember that capital accumulation is secondary to capital preservation. On the other side of the equation set profit targets prior to entering your trade. Utilizing pivot points will always provide you with realistic profit targets.
Hey Mike,
Or did Warren slip back in here!?
  • #35,437
  • Sep 30, 2008 8:41am Sep 30, 2008 8:41am
I've had the best day ever up 439pips on mutiple trades. not big money, but strict MM, still a newbie,but it feels good.
  • #35,438
  • Sep 30, 2008 8:42am Sep 30, 2008 8:42am
acumen,
how do i install the FXIpivots.ex4 or how do i integrate it into my MT4 platform?
thank you
  • #35,439
  • Sep 30, 2008 8:44am Sep 30, 2008 8:44am
I just wanted to rile you up a bit today. You seem quite mellow since your 3 shorts panned out in a big way!

Ron
  • #35,440
  • Sep 30, 2008 8:44am Sep 30, 2008 8:44am
Quoting Gofer Pips
Hey Mike,
Or did Warren slip back in here!?
Large cut and paste but if I put a link to my site most won't click on it.

They will read it if it's right in front of them.

It is huge.

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