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  • #1,141
  • Sep 26, 2008 5:25pm Sep 26, 2008 5:25pm
Barak- Let me tell tell you how I trade and maybe it will help. For me, there is a daily comparison to what is happening on the H4 & the daily/monthly trend.
"when a move finished and we start looking at the oposite direction...the pair was respecting 61.8 level of the big move it made , began going south , but then turned around respected that level again & overlapped it to 377 level , again moved south ... and now turned again". What does the higher timeframe tell you it was doing? Remember you are weighing the direction of the daily against what is going on with the 4HR chart. Is the daily respecting it's own fib pattern? Are they both heading in the same direction (the highest probability trade)? Charting is an art and like all art it takes experience and time to develop your talent at feeling the emerging patterns. This thread isn't that old and it takes a lot of perserverance and patience to find the groove. PLUS the market is crazy right now....central banks are trying to stabilize the market and I don't trust any trades right now. It may be nothing but it looks to me like they're locking down the moves.
how many respects of fib levels , fib zones & fib expensions has to be before we develope interest for the pair? For me, it's one because I trade 1-2-3 patterns (a move, a retracement, a move to FE 61.8%, a small trade down and a larger trade up). It appears M waits for the 2nd retrace and then takes the trade. I also look for things like candle patterns and inside bars at those levels to see if I can up the probability.

Lastly and probably most importantly, trading is about probabilities and consistency.

I'd try to help more but my platform doesn't have cad/jpy.
  • #1,142
  • Sep 26, 2008 5:45pm Sep 26, 2008 5:45pm
Quoting eaglestar
Hi I am new to this thread. My question is, where should I start? Should I read all of the old thread and all of the new thread and then the videos, or just go straight to the videos? where do I get the template and tool setup that people are using? Mouteki, can you please add the template to the first post that you use daily? How does this compare to bobokus method? thanks!

Eaglestar, personally I would start with the videos on Mouteki's blog at forexgemini.com. I think you definitely learn a lot more about what is involved in the process. This thread is more of people thinking out loud with current situations and asking questions. But the videos will give you the basics (and more) to get started, then you can start following the thread and ask or post your thoughts and maybe one of us can help out. There is an indicator here on the thread, but I don't know anything about it. I just plot the points manually. Maybe someone else can answer that for you. And as far as comparing to bobokus method--sorry, I have no idea.
  • #1,143
  • Sep 26, 2008 6:04pm Sep 26, 2008 6:04pm
Quoting ozziedave
I see alot of people are confused about when does a move reverse and how do I know that I should pull my fib in the opposite direction. I thought I would put up a few charts and give you my thoughts on how I determine when to pull fibs in the opposite direction.

Let's take a look at the 1hr GBPUSD chart.

So price has been in an uptrend and we have detremined there is harmony in that direction. I won't show the early fibs because they just clutter up the chart. One of the first things I do is with every new swing high I pull a fib and then wait to see if price action validates that fib. So what do I mean by "validates" the fib. Take a look at Fib A. For Fib A to be validated, price needs to retrace to one of the inner fib retracement levels (38,50,61) and then reverse and continue in the original direction of the current trend. In this case you can see at point A we have a reversal and Fib A becomes validated. So now that Fib A is validated what do we look for next? The next thing we are looking for is for price to advance and take out the 61% Fib Expansion of the Fib A move. As you can see this was done at point B. Each time the next fib expansion level is taken out it just confirms the move should continue in the up direction. When the 61 Fib Expansion is taken out what do we look for next? According to Mouteki what typically happens is we have a retracement before the move continues. Look at what happens next, we have a retracement in the down direction just after we take out the 61 Fib Expansion and the move continues up and takes out the 987 Fib Zone at point C. Typically what you want to do is identify this type of move early on in the tend. Especially when price gets to the 377 and 610 Fib Zones. There are 200-500 pips in between these zones and the next higher zone. These are the moves Mouteki is looking to ride. This example IMO is a text book Mouteki set up althought rather late in the trend.

Don't we all wish that we could just identify these set ups over and over again...

Next Lesson: What do we do now that we've taken out the 987 Fib Zone?
Great post with great explanation.
One question: do you use the 1H chart for pulling fibs, etc and trading on rather than the 4H like Mouteki? If so, why? And I guess it must be working for you? Just wondering. . .
  • #1,144
  • Sep 26, 2008 6:06pm Sep 26, 2008 6:06pm
Quoting grAgol4
Barak- Let me tell tell you how I trade and maybe it will help. For me, there is a daily comparison to what is happening on the H4 & the daily/monthly trend.
"when a move finished and we start looking at the oposite direction...the pair was respecting 61.8 level of the big move it made , began going south , but then turned around respected that level again & overlapped it to 377 level , again moved south ... and now turned again". What does the higher timeframe tell you it was doing? Remember you are weighing the direction of the daily against what is going on with the 4HR chart. Is the daily respecting it's own fib pattern? Are they both heading in the same direction (the highest probability trade)? Charting is an art and like all art it takes experience and time to develop your talent at feeling the emerging patterns. This thread isn't that old and it takes a lot of perserverance and patience to find the groove. PLUS the market is crazy right now....central banks are trying to stabilize the market and I don't trust any trades right now. It may be nothing but it looks to me like they're locking down the moves.
how many respects of fib levels , fib zones & fib expensions has to be before we develope interest for the pair? For me, it's one because I trade 1-2-3 patterns (a move, a retracement, a move to FE 61.8%, a small trade down and a larger trade up). It appears M waits for the 2nd retrace and then takes the trade. I also look for things like candle patterns and inside bars at those levels to see if I can up the probability.

Lastly and probably most importantly, trading is about probabilities and consistency.

I'd try to help more but my platform doesn't have cad/jpy.
I was just wondering when do you trade from the 1-2-3 patterns? Do you trade after the retracement or while it is retracing? I always see this happening, just not sure how to trade it until it's over, of course--then it's quite easy to see!!!
  • #1,145
  • Sep 26, 2008 6:09pm Sep 26, 2008 6:09pm
Continuing with the fib direction lesson. Again, we are looking at the 1hr GBPUSD chart. Ok, price has taken out the 987 Fib Zone and has formed what appears to be a top at point D. So where will price go from here and how do we figure that out? The first thing I do is pull a fib up to the new swing high. So I've pulled Fib B to the new swing high. Now for Fib B to be validated we must have a retrace to one of the inner fib retracement levels and a bounce up from there. One of the first things you should notice is that the first retracement level is about 400 pips below the swing high and mind you, that's just to the first inner fib level (38%). So it may take a long time before Fib B becomes validated and there's no gurantee that price will retracement to one of the inner fib levels and then reverse and continue on to take out the 1597 Fib Zone. So what data do we have at this point? We know that Fib A (a validated fib) still has the 161 Fib Expansion level @ 1.9201 just beyond the 1597 Fib Zone @ 1.9040 and that it is a possibility that price may go up and take out those levels at some point in time.

So in my mind we have 3 possibilities (see chart 2).

1. The up move continues from the current price level.
2. A pullback develops and takes us down to one of the inner fib levels of Fib B and possibly reverses for a run at the 1597 Fib Zone.
3. The pullback continues and turns into a trend reversal breaking down through the 61% retracement level of Fib B.

The next question is - how do we figure out what is the most likely price move?
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  • #1,146
  • Sep 26, 2008 6:15pm Sep 26, 2008 6:15pm
Quoting 4xisfun
Great post with great explanation.
One question: do you use the 1H chart for pulling fibs, etc and trading on rather than the 4H like Mouteki? If so, why? And I guess it must be working for you? Just wondering. . .
I use the 4hr chart to see swings where I might start the Fib Zones from. Once I identify a swing high or low, I move to the 1hr chart to confirm smaller fib retracements and smaller fib zone harmony in the 89, 144, 233 fib zones. After I confirm smaller fib zone harmony I move back to the 4 hr charts for the larger fib zones.

For my GBPUSD examples it's just easier to follow and see on the 1 hr chart.
  • #1,147
  • Sep 26, 2008 6:21pm Sep 26, 2008 6:21pm
Quoting grAgol4
Barak- Let me tell tell you how I trade and maybe it will help. For me, there is a daily comparison to what is happening on the H4 & the daily/monthly trend.
"when a move finished and we start looking at the oposite direction...the pair was respecting 61.8 level of the big move it made , began going south , but then turned around respected that level again & overlapped it to 377 level , again moved south ... and now turned again". What does the higher timeframe tell you it was doing? Remember you are weighing the direction of the daily against what is going on with the 4HR chart. Is the daily respecting it's own fib pattern? Are they both heading in the same direction (the highest probability trade)? Charting is an art and like all art it takes experience and time to develop your talent at feeling the emerging patterns. This thread isn't that old and it takes a lot of perserverance and patience to find the groove. PLUS the market is crazy right now....central banks are trying to stabilize the market and I don't trust any trades right now. It may be nothing but it looks to me like they're locking down the moves.
how many respects of fib levels , fib zones & fib expensions has to be before we develope interest for the pair? For me, it's one because I trade 1-2-3 patterns (a move, a retracement, a move to FE 61.8%, a small trade down and a larger trade up). It appears M waits for the 2nd retrace and then takes the trade. I also look for things like candle patterns and inside bars at those levels to see if I can up the probability.

Lastly and probably most importantly, trading is about probabilities and consistency.

I'd try to help more but my platform doesn't have cad/jpy.
first of all , thank you very much for answering .

in addition to my previous post , I'll attach some charts in order to explain better what I mean ...

in the attached charts , you will notice that price respected retracements levels , went to exp. , and retraced again , personally - I like to catch moves while they developed so my stop loss wouldn't be large and my take profit orders will be far , so I'll have that r:r best ratio.

anyway , in the attachments you'll be able to see this scenarios of : move - retracement - expansion - retracement ... and so on . only it in a smaller scale move then Mouteki showed on the vids , but small moves leads to a bigger moves according to those vids.

again , my question is - are this setups vallid ? we have all the componnents of a setup , but how do we apply it on acttual everyday trading .. you will be able to see that some of the moves respected a fib retracement -went on the direction towards the expansion - but suddenly turned a around to again to hit the retracement again while taking my stop ... what are we doing in this kind of situations?
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  • #1,148
  • Sep 26, 2008 6:49pm Sep 26, 2008 6:49pm
I dont see respect of fib expansions on previous moves on all three charts, nor confirmation candles (large candle going south) until both expansions and confirmation candles are shown, i wouldnt go into these trades.

just my 2 cents


any input on NZD/CHF? it looks like its going higher on 4h/1h.....but confirmation south was done3 days ago...
Lets Soar The Sky
  • #1,149
  • Sep 26, 2008 6:55pm Sep 26, 2008 6:55pm
So we have a new swing high at point D and we see that price has turned down from the high. One of 3 things can happen now, the move up continues, the down retraces to one of the inner fib levels of Fib B and bounces up or price just continues down and a new trend direction develops. Let's take each option and look at it.

1. Price continues up from the current point

How do we confirm this? If price moves up and takes out the 100% Fib Expansion of Fib A @ 1.8689 then we would expect that price would continue up and take out the 161% Fib Expansion of Fib A @ 1.9201 which is above the 1597 Fib Zone @ 1.9040.

Now for the down moves.

We know that we've just taken out the 987 Fib Zone recently and according to Mouteki we typically will get a retrace from that zone. How much of a retrace no one knows for certain but using the fib zones we can stack the probabilities in our favour.

The first thing that I noticed was that from point D to point E there was about 365 pip difference. So we know that the smaller Fib Zones are 89, 144 , 233 and 377 so your first clue to start pulling fibs in the opposite direction is when you see a pullback in the range of 200-300 pips. Me, I want to check that range out to see if we have any harmony in the down move.

Take a look for yourself and see if we have any harmony in the fib zones and fibs in the down move?

Next lesson...review of scenarios 2 and 3.
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  • #1,150
  • Sep 26, 2008 7:11pm Sep 26, 2008 7:11pm
I have been following Mouteki's method from the start...and im using what ive learned in my own trading strategy....i must say im enjoying reading your post


Quoting ozziedave
So we have a new swing high at point D and we see that price has turned down from the high. One of 3 things can happen now, the move up continues, the down retraces to one of the inner fib levels of Fib B and bounces up or price just continues down and a new trend direction develops. Let's take each option and look at it.

1. Price continues up from the current point

How do we confirm this? If price moves up and takes out the 100% Fib Expansion of Fib A @ 1.8689 then we would expect that price would continue up and take out the 161% Fib Expansion of Fib A @ 1.9201 which is above the 1597 Fib Zone @ 1.9040.

Now for the down moves.

We know that we've just taken out the 987 Fib Zone recently and according to Mouteki we typically will get a retrace from that zone. How much of a retrace no one knows for certain but using the fib zones we can stack the probabilities in our favour.

The first thing that I noticed was that from point D to point E there was about 365 pip difference. So we know that the smaller Fib Zones are 89, 144 , 233 and 377 so your first clue to start pulling fibs in the opposite direction is when you see a pullback in the range of 200-300 pips. Me, I want to check that range out to see if we have any harmony in the down move.

Take a look for yourself and see if we have any harmony in the fib zones and fibs in the down move?

Next lesson...review of scenarios 2 and 3.
  • #1,151
  • Sep 26, 2008 9:13pm Sep 26, 2008 9:13pm
Hello all,
I have something to add real quick.I figured I would throw this in, just to show how fibs, if placed correctly are very meaningful.This is a trade I am currently in,from the 61.8 retracement on our current down move.Buuut look at this weekly chart and where the fibs and the expansions,and zones land.A picture says a thousand dollars check it out.The big picture is what the big guys follow and it is pretty amazing how these all fall into place.Mouketi doesn't rake in the cash off gambling that is for sure!
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  • #1,152
  • Edited 11:55pm Sep 26, 2008 11:25pm | Edited 11:55pm
Ok, so again we're on the 1 hr GBPUSD chart. Form the last swing high we've gone down about 300 pips. Here is where and when I decide to pull fibs and the fib zones to the down side. So this analysis would be to determine harmony to the down side for either scenario 2 or 3.

We've pulled the Fib Zones to the down side and now we pull the first fib, which is Fib A. Note that the swing low of Fib A is right on the 144 Fib Zone (point A). We get a retrace and see that price has respected Fib A at the 50% retrace level. If you take a closer look at the gray circle you will notice that all of the candles in the circle do not have a closing price above the 38% fib retracement level (which also happens to be the 89 Fib Zone level) which indicates additional respect and a continuation of the down move. Don't ya just love this!!!

So what do we want to see happen next? That's right..we want to see the 61% Fib Expansion level of Fib A taken out. The move down continues taking out the 61% Fib Expansion of Fib A (point B) and continuing down through the 100% Fib Expansion of Fib A and through the 233 Fib Zone to almost the 377 Fib Zone.

At point C we get a pullback so we pull the next fib to the swing low formed by point C. Now we have Fib B and we are waiting to see if price respects any of the inner fib levels of Fib B. We have taken out the 233 Fib Zone and almost the 377 Fib Zone so this is where I get real interested in watching the down move. If we get a pullback here and the down move continues and takes out the 377 Fib Zone the next stop is more than likely the 610 Fib Zone. Depending on where you get in that's a 200 + pip trade.

Now we get a retracement to the 38% retracement level of Fib B (gray box also the 233 Fib Zone) and we start to look for the down move to continue. This is our current set up and now we want to see the 377 Fib Zone taken out followed by the 61% Fib Expansion of Fib B (point B) once this happens the probabilities of price going to the 610 Fib Zone are in our favour.

Now remember we started all of this analysis with the up move and the up Fib Zones (see chart 2). We still have a Fib pulled to the last swing high that hasn't been validated or invalidated so on the way down we need to be looking at those retracement levels (inner fibs) to see if we get a bounce back up. Keep in mind the first retracement level of the up fib (38%) was about 300 pips below the swing high.

Again, I show these things because I really hate to see 200-300 pip swings go by without getting in on them. Using the Fib Zones this way gives me an opportunity to trade in both directions during those long swings. I typically only look at about 3-5 pairs so for me it's my way of keeping in the game and not having to wait for long retracements or scanning 20-30 different pairs to see if there is a valid set up. I hope these examples have helped some of you.
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  • #1,153
  • Sep 27, 2008 1:47am Sep 27, 2008 1:47am
Nice job, ozziedave!
  • #1,154
  • Sep 27, 2008 2:11am Sep 27, 2008 2:11am
Quoting 4xisfun
Eaglestar, personally I would start with the videos on Mouteki's blog at forexgemini.com. I think you definitely learn a lot more about what is involved in the process. This thread is more of people thinking out loud with current situations and asking questions. But the videos will give you the basics (and more) to get started, then you can start following the thread and ask or post your thoughts and maybe one of us can help out. There is an indicator here on the thread, but I don't know anything about it. I just plot the points manually. Maybe someone else can answer that for you. And as far as comparing to bobokus method--sorry, I have no idea.
Hi All,

For those of you that have tried or use Bo's fib set ups there is very little comparison between Bo's Fibs and Mouteki's use of fibs. The way I have used Bo's intraday fibs is after I determine what direction the trade might go in, I use the interday fibs to confirm the bounces within each day and trade them in the over all trend direction as determined by the Mouteki Fib Zones. Hope that helps.
  • #1,155
  • Sep 27, 2008 2:43am Sep 27, 2008 2:43am
Picked a random spot in the market on USD/JPY, happened to be june 07. Started to map out and trade on vhands. Mapped out a 1000+ pip move successfully on the first try! Check out the respect.

(I don't use the same extentions as mouteki btw).
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  • #1,156
  • Sep 27, 2008 2:46am Sep 27, 2008 2:46am
Quoting soartosky
any input on NZD/CHF? it looks like its going higher on 4h/1h.....but confirmation south was done3 days ago...
i'm short in NZD/CHF,but the new possible low -0- at 0.7176 should be considered...
but mouteki's set-up is more affordable(it's daily and respected very well the fibs) + on the h1 chart the 38.2 Ret is being respected,together with the 377 fibzone of mouteki's set up.So chances are that it will go south...otherwise i'll reverse the position and consider the new -0- at 0.7176
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  • #1,157
  • Sep 27, 2008 3:19am Sep 27, 2008 3:19am
Quoting Jared
Picked a random spot in the market on USD/JPY, happened to be june 07. Started to map out and trade on vhands. Mapped out a 1000+ pip move successfully on the first try! Check out the respect.

(I don't use the same extentions as mouteki btw).
It went to 1597
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  • #1,158
  • Sep 27, 2008 4:29am Sep 27, 2008 4:29am
Quoting soartosky
I dont see respect of fib expansions on previous moves on all three charts, nor confirmation candles (large candle going south) until both expansions and confirmation candles are shown, i wouldnt go into these trades.

just my 2 cents


any input on NZD/CHF? it looks like its going higher on 4h/1h.....but confirmation south was done3 days ago...
about the cad \ jpy - there is for sure respects of the fib levels , exp, retracement , since Mouteki showed it in his video 8 , and this currency is in the forexgemini blog , under currency set ups label ... this currency went all the way from 0 FZ to the 987 FZ , and now it in the 61.8 retracement level - respected it 2 times , and probbablly going to do that for the third time ....

any way --- my question was : in this kind of scenario , when do we short ?

in the first time I shorted the pair after I saw the first respect on the 4hr chart ... clearlly , my stop was a bit above that candle which touched the 61.8 level .... price began moving south - but then retraced once again to the 61.8 level overlapping the 377 , only it created a higher high wichstopped me out .
ok, so I entered short once again , and price began moving south again ...but, right now it is reversing again towards the 61.8 again...

so, finally the question is - how do I know when price won't go to the respected level again and it is "safe" to go into trade without being worried that I will get stopped ?

thanks.
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  • #1,159
  • Sep 27, 2008 4:52am Sep 27, 2008 4:52am
[quote=soartosky;2245104]I dont see respect of fib expansions on previous moves on all three charts, nor confirmation candles (large candle going south) until both expansions and confirmation candles are shown, i wouldnt go into these trades.

just my 2 cents

I'll show why I think this pair in harmony and going south ... please , write me your opinions people.

thanks.
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  • #1,160
  • Sep 27, 2008 7:20am Sep 27, 2008 7:20am
Ok...some of you are still a bit confused about pulling fibs in both directions. I've attached a 4hr GPBUSD chart so we can get an over view of waht we did in the other lessons.

So let's review the up trend Fib Zones and Fibs. We have Fib A which was validated when the retracement came back to point A and went up and broke through the 61% Fib Expansion of Fib A. Fib A is still in play since the 100% and 161% fib expansion levels have not been taken out yet. So the up move is still intact.

We made a new swing high at point B so I pulled a fib from the bottom to the swing high at point B and this is Fib B. Now Fib B is not a valid fib until price goes down to one of the inner fib levels, bonces off and starts back in the up direction. As you can see the 3*% fib level is about 450 pips below the swing high at point B and the 61% level is about 700 pips away from the swing high at point B. So if you want to wait for the retracement to the inner fibs of Fib B it may take awhile.

Now, what I have done is map out the down move from point Bto point C. That is what is covered in the previous lessons. This is a 365 pip move to the down direction and all I am trying to do is figure out a way to trade that down move. What do we know about price when it hits and takes out the 987 Fib Zone...It typically reverses. In this case the retrace is from point B to point C which is about 365 pips and we have Fib Zone and Fib retracement harmony. So why not take advantage of our edge and tarde this move in the down down direction.

The up move is still intact but we're not that concerned with the up move until it either goes up from the current price level and takes out point B or it retraces to one of the inner fib levels of Fib B. Once it gets close to the inner fib levels of Fib B I will start to watch price action for reversal points. If price does come down and then reverses at one of the inner fib levels of Fib B then we can pull the fib expansion for Fib B and we will have additional price targets to the up side.

I hope that clears things up a bit.
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