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  • #34,641
  • Sep 26, 2008 11:39am Sep 26, 2008 11:39am
Quoting seesaw
Bailout becomes official = stronger dollar (or weaker Euro)
What? If the bailout becomes official this might be good for the stock market but FOR SURE not for the dollar! How could an add of $700bn. to the deficit good for the dollar? Does anyone think, that these $700bn. will be enough? It's just the first step...

We even might see a emergency rate cut this weekend. Now, how good is that for the dollar?
  • #34,642
  • Sep 26, 2008 11:41am Sep 26, 2008 11:41am
Quoting Xaron
What? If the bailout becomes official this might be good for the stock market but FOR SURE not for the dollar! How could an add of $700bn. to the deficit good for the dollar? Does anyone think, that these $700bn. will be enough? It's just the first step...

We even might see a emergency rate cut this weekend. Now, how good is that for the dollar?

Then you should buy the Euro in droves!! Continue buying
  • #34,643
  • Sep 26, 2008 11:44am Sep 26, 2008 11:44am
Quoting bigandrich
cue the dualing banjos
Banjos sound cool but I hope there is no shotgun wedding to a toothless woman or the other end, ahem, of the spectrum being stuck like a pig by Jethro.

  • #34,644
  • Sep 26, 2008 11:45am Sep 26, 2008 11:45am
Quoting seesaw
Then you should buy the Euro in droves!! Continue buying
I do. All the way down if it goes below 1.40 again (I doubt that). I'm still long in gold as well, first target $1,000 then $1,500. Might become reality this year.
  • #34,645
  • Sep 26, 2008 11:46am Sep 26, 2008 11:46am
market is moving sooo slow. i guess I should pack it in for the week. have a great weekend everyone!
  • #34,646
  • Sep 26, 2008 11:47am Sep 26, 2008 11:47am
Quoting Xaron
I do. All the way down if it goes below 1.40 again (I doubt that). I'm still long in gold as well, first target $1,000 then $1,500. Might become reality this year.

You sound like a long term player. Good for you. I'm an intra day trader and I see it going down first (whatever happens to the bailout) before emerging long and strong.
  • #34,647
  • Sep 26, 2008 11:48am Sep 26, 2008 11:48am
Quoting SunTrader
Banjos sound cool but I hope there is no shotgun wedding to a toothless woman or the other end, ahem, of the spectrum being stuck like a pig by Jethro.

I'll post a couple in your absence.
  • #34,648
  • Sep 26, 2008 11:50am Sep 26, 2008 11:50am
Quoting seesaw
You sound like a long term player. Good for you. I'm an intra day trader and I see it going down first (whatever happens to the bailout) before emerging long and strong.
Yep, I do use multiple entries, using a leverage of 1:1 or even below. I'm more an intraweek trader than an intraday trader. I'm too old for the fast action, too much noise and randomness for me.

But that's the nice thing: We both can make money, even if you are short and I'm long...
  • #34,649
  • Sep 26, 2008 12:00pm Sep 26, 2008 12:00pm
I said before the day began the bulls would protect .4550ish area.

They have.

It won't matter.

Next week the package should go through which will provide a small lift to the dollar.

Thursday the dollar should get a stronger boost when Trichet holds the rates (further deteriorating the zone's fragile economies) flat but takes a dovish stance on the zone.
  • #34,650
  • Sep 26, 2008 12:02pm Sep 26, 2008 12:02pm
Quoting Xaron
What? If the bailout becomes official this might be good for the stock market but FOR SURE not for the dollar! How could an add of $700bn. to the deficit good for the dollar? Does anyone think, that these $700bn. will be enough? It's just the first step...

We even might see a emergency rate cut this weekend. Now, how good is that for the dollar?
Nope.

If it does it will be at the Oct. meeting but I wouldn't hold your breath.

m
  • #34,651
  • Sep 26, 2008 12:11pm Sep 26, 2008 12:11pm
Daily with Gann fans nailed the high today but TD Sequential sell setup shows neither bars 8 or 9 penetrated the high of both bar 6 and 7 so I would expect this to happen sometime soon.
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  • #34,652
  • Sep 26, 2008 12:12pm Sep 26, 2008 12:12pm
Quoting Xaron
What? If the bailout becomes official this might be good for the stock market but FOR SURE not for the dollar! How could an add of $700bn. to the deficit good for the dollar? Does anyone think, that these $700bn. will be enough? It's just the first step...

We even might see a emergency rate cut this weekend. Now, how good is that for the dollar?
My only question with the hype of some type of bailout being basically gauranteed by both parties, as soon as Sunday, why is the EUR being weighted down? Given your scenerio I would think we would be trending higher near a resistance level, waiting to explode.
  • #34,653
  • Sep 26, 2008 12:14pm Sep 26, 2008 12:14pm
as the week comes to an end i will post my final chart until sunday....notice how the previously shown triangle which had extremes at first has come to a full stop right before market close...go figure...no break

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #34,654
  • Sep 26, 2008 12:18pm Sep 26, 2008 12:18pm
Quoting bigandrich
My only question with the hype of some type of bailout being basically gauranteed by both parties, as soon as Sunday, why is the EUR being weighted down? Given your scenerio I would think we would be trending higher near a resistance level, waiting to explode.
Yep that's what I wonder about... Currently the EUR isn't really weighted down, this can be just some profit taking as the overshoot to 1.4850 was a bit too heavy. Have you ever noticed that the USD rallies a bit before a carry unwind starts?
  • #34,655
  • Sep 26, 2008 12:27pm Sep 26, 2008 12:27pm
Quoting Xaron
Yep that's what I wonder about... Currently the EUR isn't really weighted down, this can be just some profit taking as the overshoot to 1.4850 was a bit too heavy. Have you ever noticed that the USD rallies a bit before a carry unwind starts?
Absolutely . There's just something here that seems....all to easy. Excuse my paranoia, I've got trigger orders entered so I don't even have a stake at the moment. There's just that little voice in the back of my mind....
  • #34,656
  • Sep 26, 2008 12:30pm Sep 26, 2008 12:30pm
1)What would a progressive gringo say to the $700 billions bailout?
Let me get this straight...we can't afford social security, Medicare, Medicaid, improvements to our infrastructure.

We can afford a war in Iraq/Afghanistan.

We can afford to turn Wall Street Executives who ruined our financial system into Welfare Queens.

Here are my preconditions as a taxpayer.

1. Require the Hedge Funds to put down 20% of the total bill. They have the money. If they need more they can sell a few mansions in Greenwich and a couple of yachts.

2. Strict oversight of every penny spent. A federal takeover is the best way to do this.

3. NO multimillion packages for these highway robbers. They should be made to feel like newly minted Welfare Queens. Give them say $100K for all their good work. I have taken pay cuts so has everyone else I know.

4. I want to be a stockholder like Warren Buffet. Return me something on my hard earned money.

5. Cancel their passports...I don't want them skipping the country to enjoy the money they have shipped overseas with no extradition treaties.

6. Make them live in a 2 bedroom house in like Levittown and buy a ford. If they need another job, let them look for it on Hotjobs and see what they can find
  • #34,657
  • Sep 26, 2008 12:47pm Sep 26, 2008 12:47pm
I'm from the US and believe there is some fear that our problems may not be completely specific to the "States."
US Corporations may not be alone in being greedy, or in issuing and holding bad loans, debt, etc. It is however pretty much out in the open for all to see.

I sincerely hope this debacle has been contained here in the US.
This shouldn't be a "US versus the Euro-zone" (or visa versa) type of thing.
I do tend to root for currencies based on whether I'm long or short at the time, but economic world wide chaos will be bad for all of us.

I'm not saying I wouldn't trade it, but in the big picture, it ultimately will not be worth the pips.

Jim
  • #34,658
  • Sep 26, 2008 1:01pm Sep 26, 2008 1:01pm
Quoting Foreyes
I'm from the US and believe there is some fear that our problems may not be completely specific to the "States."
US Corporations may not be alone in being greedy, or in issuing and holding bad loans, debt, etc. It is however pretty much out in the open for all to see.

I sincerely hope this debacle has been contained here in the US.
This shouldn't be a "US versus the Euro-zone" (or visa versa) type of thing.
I do tend to root for currencies based on whether I'm long or short at the time, but economic world wide chaos will be bad for all of us.

I'm not saying I wouldn't trade it, but in the big picture, it ultimately will not be worth the pips.

Jim
I know it is popular to call all the banks "greedy" and blame them for this mess, but please familarize yourself with the Community Reinvestment Act passed by Congress and signed into law by President Clinton in 1995. If you do, you will see this mess is, as almost always, rooted in politics...not our free market system. Congress started us down this crazy road, and now they have to deal with it...at taxpayer expense!
  • #34,659
  • Sep 26, 2008 1:04pm Sep 26, 2008 1:04pm
have a nice weekend everyone...back next week
  • #34,660
  • Sep 26, 2008 1:17pm Sep 26, 2008 1:17pm
See you on Monday, hopefully with a clearer panorama of what is going on with the markets.
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