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New Mouteki Method...

  • #1,101
  • Sep 25, 2008 2:52pm Sep 25, 2008 2:52pm
Quoting monkey
I see a lot of people discussing getting into trades using the technical analysis portion of the Mouteki Method.

Why are you doing this when the fundamentals are so screwy?

Nobody knows where the USD is going once the government bailout deal is announced (probably on Sunday).

I think that a lot of people are forgetting the fundamental portion of this system (and the volume, which hasn't even been introduced yet!) and jumping into trades or enticing others to (not necessarily intentionally) without considering that this week has been acting like just prior to a major news announcement, probably the biggest news announcement to affect the USD (short and long term) since the Euro was announced. And -nobody- seems to have any idea what this will do to the USD next week.

Correct me if I'm wrong.
You are right. I completly agree with you which is why i havent been posting much in the past few days. I simply have no idea in which direction these pairs are heading to especailly with all the conflict going on in the US economy. I been seeing so many different views for directional path but i think i am just going to wait untill the US finalize there decision to help are financial crisis.

Actually now that i look i see that we did come to a agreement, how will that affect the US economy and how fast I dont know.

For more info visit http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...,0,32401.story
  • #1,102
  • Sep 25, 2008 3:08pm Sep 25, 2008 3:08pm
Unfortunately those press reports aren't quite true, a little premature of the LA Times. Democrats are wanting more provisions for taxpayers, and Republicans in Congress are philosophically opposed to the bailout in general. They'll come to an agreement, but I doubt if its before the close of trading on Friday. And I'm sure it'll be phased in, and I'm not sure how the market will react. Will the chaos just continue since nobody knows if $200 billion at a time will do the job of preventing more banks going under, so it is watch and wait like the past week, but for the next MONTH? Will the dollar rally because the pricetag is lower than expected so less national debt? Will the dollar fall because the markets don't believe the bailout is sufficient?
Who knows. I am desperate to get into a trade but the past 2 days of trying just burned me. Monday was sweet though
  • #1,103
  • Sep 25, 2008 3:12pm Sep 25, 2008 3:12pm
Quoting monkey
I see a lot of people discussing getting into trades using the technical analysis portion of the Mouteki Method.

Why are you doing this when the fundamentals are so screwy?

Nobody knows where the USD is going once the government bailout deal is announced (probably on Sunday).

I think that a lot of people are forgetting the fundamental portion of this system (and the volume, which hasn't even been introduced yet!) and jumping into trades or enticing others to (not necessarily intentionally) without considering that this week has been acting like just prior to a major news announcement, probably the biggest news announcement to affect the USD (short and long term) since the Euro was announced. And -nobody- seems to have any idea what this will do to the USD next week.

Correct me if I'm wrong.
IMO you're correct - but I've given up posting about news, fundementals etc - people have even forgotten that Mouteki has said that after a big move - especially like the fast ones that have just happened - the markets need time to settle down - i.e. the big dogs that actually make the moves will take time to build up their next positions.

This week is about small positions and banking your profits quickly.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,104
  • Sep 25, 2008 3:34pm Sep 25, 2008 3:34pm
[quote=monkey;2242567]I see a lot of people discussing getting into trades using the technical analysis portion of the Mouteki Method.

Why are you doing this when the fundamentals are so screwy?

Nobody knows where the USD is going once the government bailout deal is announced (probably on Sunday).

I think that a lot of people are forgetting the fundamental portion of this system (and the volume, which hasn't even been introduced yet!) and jumping into trades or enticing others to (not necessarily intentionally) without considering that this week has been acting like just prior to a major news announcement, probably the biggest news announcement to affect the USD (short and long term) since the Euro was announced. And -nobody- seems to have any idea what this will do to the USD next week.

I would like to answer this in several points :

1.The Mouteki trading method , isn't really a method , just a way of mapping a currency pair move...he said that a lot of times..

2.if someone would like to "catch" a big move it is better to do that while it's in early development , so your sl is in reasonable place , in case you were wrong.

3.the fundamental part in Mouteki's method was something like "look at the FF calender and see the news of the past week\s " , well in this time any kind of news can supply a trigger for both ways.

4.when you see Mouteki's videos , and you figure that he had made thousands of dollars on a move that you saw happaning also , you can't help it ... a lot of people r trying to catch the next move .so they will not have the feeling of : "damm ..how did I missed that..."

best of luck.
  • #1,105
  • Sep 25, 2008 3:54pm Sep 25, 2008 3:54pm
By no means any recomendation just my two pennies:

I believe the E/U to be heading south to 1.4492, reason: It is

  1. 377 of current move down
  2. 610 of recent move up (larger trend)
  3. 38.2 fibo of current move up (larger trend)

I am using these factors to be in a short entered at 1.4619, TP @ 1.4505.
Although i am cautious of the gravestone doji that is forming on the daily which COULD signal the end of the current downtrend.

Nick

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur usd.gif Size: 9 KB
The customer is always right!
  • #1,106
  • Sep 25, 2008 4:00pm Sep 25, 2008 4:00pm
I agree monkey...if people are going to be trading this week, I would suggest using much less lots than you normally would. That being said I'm in usd/chf & eur/usd in favor of the dollar in tiny amounts. I see respect...but then again I see dead people too.
  • #1,107
  • Sep 25, 2008 4:09pm Sep 25, 2008 4:09pm
Quoting grAgol4
I agree monkey...if people are going to be trading this week, I would suggest using much less lots than you normally would. That being said I'm in usd/chf & eur/usd in favor of the dollar in tiny amounts. I see respect...but then again I see dead people too.
I was just looking at the usd/chf right before I read this post. I would have to agree with you. They are both looking like there is respect--eur/usd to the down side and usd/chf to the up side.
  • #1,108
  • Sep 25, 2008 5:13pm Sep 25, 2008 5:13pm
[quote=Barak's pip;2242694]
Quoting monkey
I see a lot of people discussing getting into trades using the technical analysis portion of the Mouteki Method.

Why are you doing this when the fundamentals are so screwy?

Nobody knows where the USD is going once the government bailout deal is announced (probably on Sunday).

I think that a lot of people are forgetting the fundamental portion of this system (and the volume, which hasn't even been introduced yet!) and jumping into trades or enticing others to (not necessarily intentionally) without considering that this week has been acting like just prior to a major news announcement, probably the biggest news announcement to affect the USD (short and long term) since the Euro was announced. And -nobody- seems to have any idea what this will do to the USD next week.

I would like to answer this in several points :

1.The Mouteki trading method , isn't really a method , just a way of mapping a currency pair move...he said that a lot of times..

2.if someone would like to "catch" a big move it is better to do that while it's in early development , so your sl is in reasonable place , in case you were wrong.

3.the fundamental part in Mouteki's method was something like "look at the FF calender and see the news of the past week\s " , well in this time any kind of news can supply a trigger for both ways.

4.when you see Mouteki's videos , and you figure that he had made thousands of dollars on a move that you saw happaning also , you can't help it ... a lot of people r trying to catch the next move .so they will not have the feeling of : "damm ..how did I missed that..."

best of luck.
Hi All,

I agree to some point that many people aren't taking into consideration the fundamentals, especially the USD. My observation so far is that only the red folder news events move the market to any extent. Even taking that into consideration by the time most of those news events happen the market has already "priced" in what they think the numbers will be based on their reserach. Keep in mind the big boys are professional traders and have alot more resourse then we do when it comes to analysising the market. Take a look at the USD news events over the past few days...mostly bad numbers but the USD seems to be getting stronger, at least in the short term. Our techincal analysis based on Mouteki's fib zones of the EUR tells us that we should be in a down mode. If you look at the EUR before yesterdays news announcements you will see that the EUR started to climb and went up a bit more when the announcement came out. Ask yourself, did the move north last very long??? The answer is "no", and the reason is because the big boys had already priced those numbers into the market before the anouncement. Now, don't get me wrong here, there are times when the market moves alot based on news, but even those moves if they're against the major trend are only temporay corrections before price resumes the original trend.

So my point being even though the news announcements were not good for the USD our technical analysis based on Mouteki's fib zones painted a different picture. The 144 fib zone held and we had already been to the 233 fib zone twice. To me, the move down to the 377 fib zone was next so as soon as we had a reversal after the news I was in short. I know this is very new to all of us and we all need to develop a trading method based on what we feel comfortable with. I know many of you are waiting for Mouteki to tell you exactly how and where he enters a trade. If I understand him correctly he is not going to provide us with that "trading methodology", it is up to each one of us to figure that part out for ourselves.
  • #1,109
  • Sep 25, 2008 5:31pm Sep 25, 2008 5:31pm
Quoting ozziedave

If I understand him correctly he is not going to provide us with that "trading methodology", it is up to each one of us to figure that part out for ourselves.
Well said, OzzieDave. I've made these same comments before. Mouteki has provided a well laid out plan and it is our responsibility to further develop that plan. If you think about, determining the direction of the next move is not that hard, because you can always wait till something sustainable has developed. Entry and exit are everything.

And I agree with your current assessment. I believe we are heading down to 4500 at least. I hope that we turn and head north to eventually target the 1597, but I will be watching fibs, zones, and price action.
  • #1,110
  • Edited 9:25pm Sep 25, 2008 9:19pm | Edited 9:25pm
I completely agree with your guy's opinions about fundamentals being unpredictable in this market. So I decided to look at some pairs that did not involve the USD. I came across this... I wouldn't enter yet, probably wait for a strong downtrend candle pas the 377. But I feel that this might be headed to the FE 61.8 and FE 161.8 overlap. What do you guys think?

http://img264.imageshack.us/images/thpix.gif
http://img88.imageshack.us/img88/617...6605jn1.th.jpghttp://img88.imageshack.us/images/thpix.gif
  • #1,111
  • Sep 25, 2008 11:01pm Sep 25, 2008 11:01pm
Quoting fewhills
Try this one. Set Use_Pipets to true.
That did it Thank alot
  • #1,112
  • Sep 26, 2008 12:54am Sep 26, 2008 12:54am
This is going to be an interesting case. Which way will the euro go?

I have posted 2 charts, one with the zones to the downside and one to the upside.

If I look at the daily I could see a reversal head and shoulders being formed. The 987 to the upside had been respected, although just didn't touch it by a few pips (my broker?). So is the market coming back to take out this level with more strength and maybe the 61.8 extension too? If so, we would then also have the complete reversal H&S pattern.

The 161.8 extension is also interesting, isn't it? Right back at the last high.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mouteki eurusd daily down 09-26.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: mouteki eurusd daily up 09-26.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #1,113
  • Sep 26, 2008 12:57am Sep 26, 2008 12:57am
Guys
have a look at AUD/CAD on 4H

does it look like a good set up?
Lets Soar The Sky
  • #1,114
  • Sep 26, 2008 1:10am Sep 26, 2008 1:10am
In times like this, it is best to respect the outcome of the $700 billion bailout news.
  • #1,115
  • Sep 26, 2008 1:25am Sep 26, 2008 1:25am
While waiting for Mouteki to release his PDF document, I decided that I should create one based on the input from this thread. Since I only trade in EUR/USD, I went back to the pages and extracted all those postings on EU only which I think is essential to understand the new Mouteki method. My aim is to use this document that I can refer to when I review the movement of EU since Mouteki introduce this new method.

I included the date and time (Forex Factory time) and the author in the document so that if need be I can go back to that page to review other postings related to it.

I want to thank ozziedave for starting to put in his analysis of EU pair using the new Mouteki method and inpired me to learn more on this method. I have started trading using the new Mouteki method and what it thought me most is that patient is key in using this method to catch the big move.

Hope this document is useful to those who trade EU pair. Also hoping that similar document on other pairs will be compiled by other who trade them.

Still waiting patiently for the real Mouteki's PDF document.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf MoutekiNewMethodEUAnalysis.pdf   1.0 MB | 2,749 downloads
  • #1,116
  • Sep 26, 2008 1:29am Sep 26, 2008 1:29am
Quoting DOVOFreak
While waiting for Mouteki to release his PDF document, I decided that I should create one based on the input from this thread. Since I only trade in EUR/USD, I went back to the pages and extracted all those postings on EU only which I think is essential to understand the new Mouteki method. My aim is to use this document that I can refer to when I review the movement of EU since Mouteki introduce this new method.

I included the date and time (Forex Factory time) and the author in the document so that if need be I can go back to that page to review other postings related to it.

I want to thank ozziedave for starting to put in his analysis of EU pair using the new Mouteki method and inpired me to learn more on this method. I have started trading using the new Mouteki method and what it thought me most is that patient is key in using this method to catch the big move.

Hope this document is useful to those who trade EU pair. Also hoping that similar document on other pairs will be compiled by other who trade them.

Still waiting patiently for the real Mouteki's PDF document.
I think the PDF is damaged. Could you repost? Thanks.

nchosen
  • #1,117
  • Sep 26, 2008 1:40am Sep 26, 2008 1:40am
Quoting nchosen
I think the PDF is damaged. Could you repost? Thanks.

nchosen
I can open mine. Don't think it is damage.
  • #1,118
  • Sep 26, 2008 1:42am Sep 26, 2008 1:42am
Quoting Harry123
I can open mine. Don't think it is damage.
You are right. Tried 4 times, but now it is ok.

nchosen
  • #1,119
  • Sep 26, 2008 1:43am Sep 26, 2008 1:43am
Quoting nchosen
I think the PDF is damaged. Could you repost? Thanks.

nchosen

i downloaded it ... its work with me
Never sell @ lower upward channel unless breacked and vise versa .
  • #1,120
  • Sep 26, 2008 1:57am Sep 26, 2008 1:57am
Quoting soartosky
Guys
have a look at AUD/CAD on 4H

does it look like a good set up?
I think so.

Reasons:

1. Total respect for the 233 FZ

2. Takes out FE 61.8 with total respect then rebounds.

3. Good Respects at FZ 377

4. Rebounds at FZ 377 and respects FZ 233 again.

Indicates that FZ 610 should be taken out.

This pair's setup is very similar to the EUR/CAD, which I have asked the members of the forum to give feedback but I guess people are more interested in the majors, though Mouteki has said in his videos not to get stuck on the majors.

However, some more input on the AUD/CAD would be appreciated.

Thanks for recommending this pair.
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