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  • #32,421
  • Sep 20, 2008 10:18am Sep 20, 2008 10:18am
Quoting cobraforex
I would like to hear your opinion about the possibility that shows my chart, everybody welcome, even saying bullsh$t or worthless or whatever but please with a reason.
You are assuming that the commodity market takes off again for a new bull run? Because that's really what you need if you are speculating that the euro is going to be stronger against the dollar.

Maarten
  • #32,422
  • Sep 20, 2008 11:23am Sep 20, 2008 11:23am
Quoting mikkom
Why in earth would brokers "respect" the sl ie, pay for your losses when price gaps?

Of course you have to pay if price gaps under/over your SL.
Just a little survey to gauge Trading Longevity...

Has any one on this thread ever been told by a Borker "Not Held"

btw Cobra; I like your bathroom design but not sure I can get "The Boss" to approve.
I'm the Boss in My House & I have my Wife's permission to say so.
  • #32,423
  • Sep 20, 2008 11:25am Sep 20, 2008 11:25am
The way I see things we have completed a 5 wave impulse down and are presently in ABC correction up. Rectangle is most likely zone for top of ABC. But since we have already retraced 61.8% of wave 5 and wedge has formed, the breakout (which way :nerd:blush: will give clues if/when ABC completes.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.PNG Size: 36 KB
  • #32,424
  • Sep 20, 2008 11:31am Sep 20, 2008 11:31am
Quoting cobraforex
I would like to hear your opinion about the possibility that shows my chart, everybody welcome, even saying bullsh$t or worthless or whatever but please with a reason.
Of course it Can. Will it is the question. I prefer to stay predicting The Next Move as opposed to The Next 3 Moves.
  • #32,425
  • Sep 20, 2008 12:49pm Sep 20, 2008 12:49pm
.....After this Friday move and price pattern, Bullish are ruling now.
I prefer longs for the week.
1.4460 may then act as support.
A Target of 1.4700 or 1.4770 possible, before we see a big retrace.

GL to all and for me too.
  • #32,426
  • Sep 20, 2008 12:52pm Sep 20, 2008 12:52pm
my opinion is that the usd dollar will continue to rise . . us has "shown hand" . . . those that need to fall has fell. . to be sold, sold. the worst is over . .. Now that the problems spill to EURO etc... when its time for EURO to "show hand", the value will fall more..

the whip saws etc we are seeing now, is just caused by sentiments of the showing hand of US . . once the dust settles and the other side of alantic starts its hand, the down trend continues ..

opinions?
  • #32,427
  • Sep 20, 2008 1:03pm Sep 20, 2008 1:03pm
Quoting Bemac
I prefer to stay predicting The Next Move as opposed to The Next 3 Moves.
I knew that you will post something like this, still busy to decode it .


Quoting Bemac
I'm the Boss in My House & I have my Wife's permission to say so.
And I thought that I'm the only one
  • #32,428
  • Sep 20, 2008 1:24pm Sep 20, 2008 1:24pm
Technically, if 1.4550 is convincingly broken, there is no major resistance until 1.48. I think that there may be a correction down first. The RSI is almost at its max.

With the recent continuous news, I plan to lower my lot size or use tight stop-losses.

I think there will be a lot of new FOREX traders (fresh meat) entering the market soon, now that a lot of short selling has been banned.
Attached Image
  • #32,429
  • Edited 4:44pm Sep 20, 2008 2:18pm | Edited 4:44pm
Quoting cobraforex
I would like to hear your opinion about the possibility that shows my chart, everybody welcome, even saying bullsh$t or worthless or whatever but please with a reason.
I'm afraid it could be, if it finally finishes breaking the confluence of the steeper down trend lines that have already been poked through twice, which will probably occur as I see strength building to the upside (slightly slow and upwards consolidation).

Maybe it won't reach the levels you mark in a first attempt, but if taken as an Elliot Wave in development, we would be now about the first half of wave 3 which can reach as a minimum to 1.46653 - and nearby 1.47046 is the 38% retracement of the whole downmove. Then pullback to about 1.43 for wave 4 and up again for wave 5 and if strong resistance at 38% level breaks, we will most probably reach psych level of 1.50.

However, seen from the bearish point of view, we're now sitting at the 61.8% retracement from the first half of wave 3 from the top (wave 1 = 1.6037 to 1.4630 - 1400 pips approximatively ; wave 3 starting at 1.4974 which would then probably reach around 1.35 - another psych level, and I remember being startled near the end of 2007 when Trichet had announced the Eurozone budget for next period being calculated with an euro rate of 1.35 when it actually was nearing 1.50... too bad I didn't keep the news text. Don't know if it has something to do with this now anyway.

Or maybe we're just on the middle of wave 2 and this could lead us to same retracement above mentioned (psych 1.50) to get then to wave 3 towards 1.28 - 1.20? Seems quite unbelievable to see it so low... but that's about the levels the euro had three years ago... and some cycles usually last this period.

Finally, it could continue ranging for a while between 1.45-1.39.

I personally am biaised towards a rise to 1.47-1.49 zone, a retest of 1.39, and some ranging in-between for a while or till the end of the year. I don't think it can go further than 1.50.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro daily.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euro weekly2.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #32,430
  • Sep 20, 2008 4:00pm Sep 20, 2008 4:00pm
More info:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=106853


http://i38.tinypic.com/e5k84w.gif

http://i36.tinypic.com/k9h0yc.gif
  • #32,431
  • Sep 20, 2008 5:41pm Sep 20, 2008 5:41pm
more or less
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: snapshot1.png Size: 43 KB
  • #32,432
  • Sep 20, 2008 6:05pm Sep 20, 2008 6:05pm
Quoting 5ysfx
more or less
50/50?
  • #32,433
  • Sep 20, 2008 6:22pm Sep 20, 2008 6:22pm
Another chart with lines projecting resistance up near 1.4650-1.4800:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.PNG Size: 38 KB
  • #32,434
  • Sep 20, 2008 6:32pm Sep 20, 2008 6:32pm
Stop blowing up the thread with those charts.

Additionally - we don't care about your P/L.

I like you analysis... but reduce the pic size.

Thanks.

m
  • #32,435
  • Sep 20, 2008 6:38pm Sep 20, 2008 6:38pm
Quoting fxterrapin
50/50?

Didnt u notice two red arrows ?
  • #32,436
  • Sep 20, 2008 6:49pm Sep 20, 2008 6:49pm
Quoting SunTrader
A lot of folks keep referring to 8.8.8 in conspiracy-like tones. Here is an excerpt from news that day. And this was at the same time price was coming into a previously strong support area. Once that broke, hello 1.4xxx's.

Currencies and Economic News
In currency news, the dollar continued its gains against the euro. Late Thursday, the euro was trading at $1.5413 vs. $1.5473 on Wednesday.
The dollar's upswing brought it to its highest value in almost eight weeks.

The rise was fueled largely by concerns about European economic weakness rather than by strong U.S. data.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet predicted that European economic growth would slow in the second half of 2008.

The ECB held interest rates at 4.25% in an effort to combat inflation, but this may further exacerbate its current economic slowdown.

"The market is entitled to be scaling back significantly amid further ECB tightening," stated David Simmons of Royal Bank of Scotland Group. "Policy makers will continue to focus on inflation, but some of the real economic data has been pretty grim. In my opinion, 2009 will include a European rate cut and a weak euro story.''

According to Kevin Edgeley of Goldman Sachs, if the euro were to drop below $1.53, it "would signal a longer-term dollar bull phase" and could result in a drop to $1.46.
The zone is doing everything they can to hide how poorly they are doing.

The fact that they are geographically and politically fragmented doesn't help either.

There is a much greater degree of transparency in the US and with the debacle that's going on right now - it's going to get a lot more lucid.

The S&L bailout didn't spell the demise of the US. We forked over approx. 120 billion for that one... this one is only a few more billion.

With the volatility and pace of news events lately the charts don't have the impact they normally do.

Mike
  • #32,437
  • Sep 20, 2008 6:57pm Sep 20, 2008 6:57pm
Quoting SunTrader
Another chart with lines projecting resistance up near 1.4650-1.4800:
Thats just a picture with colourful lines on it.
  • #32,438
  • Sep 20, 2008 6:57pm Sep 20, 2008 6:57pm
Before you look @ the pic, I should mention that MY method is already starting to turn North on all timeframes except the Monthly.

Clue: I am soon to be a Buyer of this Market.

All Tracking Levels are of my own creation. Don't follow them unless you understand them.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sep EUR_USD ICCE Outflow.PNG Size: 213 KB
  • #32,439
  • Sep 20, 2008 7:07pm Sep 20, 2008 7:07pm
Quoting Ted1983
Thats just a picture with colourful lines on it.
Yes colorful Gann lines. Meaningless to the uninformed.
  • #32,440
  • Sep 20, 2008 7:08pm Sep 20, 2008 7:08pm
Quoting Bemac
Before you look @ the pic, I should mention that MY method is already starting to turn North on all timeframes except the Monthly.

Clue: I am soon to be a Buyer of this Market.

All Tracking Levels are of my own creation. Don't follow them unless you understand them.
Good luck. You'll need it.
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