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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #421
  • Sep 15, 2008 6:50am Sep 15, 2008 6:50am
Has eurusd finally found a base? Is this a reversal? Again, wait and see, but IMO I think that, rather than a reversal, some time will be spent in consolidation after such a big drop.

There again, who knows?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd062.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #422
  • Sep 15, 2008 7:46am Sep 15, 2008 7:46am
Quoting eyevoltage
Has eurusd finally found a base? Is this a reversal? Again, wait and see, but IMO I think that, rather than a reversal, some time will be spent in consolidation after such a big drop.

There again, who knows?
Pulled back at 4085, which is about equidistant between 50% and 61.8% fib (from Friday's hi/lo). In consolidation. Good call EV.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #423
  • Edited 7:50am Sep 15, 2008 7:46am | Edited 7:50am
Eurusd again. Two good reversal signals on the 5m eurusd chart. Looks like I was wrong regarding a consolidation, though, although 1.4150 could well be a consolidation area now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd063.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #424
  • Sep 15, 2008 8:04am Sep 15, 2008 8:04am
Just out of idle curiosity, I've drawn some fib lines to see what's happening in the fib world. I like how the retracement reaches down to touch the 61.8% level and then closes on the 50.0% line. Price continues up to the 0.0% line where it's stalling at the moment.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd064.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #425
  • Edited 8:14am Sep 15, 2008 8:10am | Edited 8:14am
This is a similar situation on the gbpusd chart. Price retraced to just short of the 50.0% line, and then continued north (with a brief pull-back to the 0.0% line) to just short of the FE 138.2% line, where a harami reversal pattern formed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd051.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #426
  • Sep 15, 2008 9:16am Sep 15, 2008 9:16am
Just an update at what's been happening since I posted the last eurusd chart. Price retraced again all the way from the 0.0% line back to the 50.0% line, before taking off northwards again after a harami reversal signal. This time, it reached FE 61.8%, pulled back a little, then continued on up to close almost exactly on the FE 100.0% line, when it started to decline.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd065.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #427
  • Sep 16, 2008 5:29am Sep 16, 2008 5:29am
I've not had time to settle down since I got up, hence the late posting of this opportunity this morning. Immediately I put the trade on, I was involved in domestic requirements that couldn't be postponed.

Anyway, the trade results from a small TL again, with the entry marked by a yellow tick under a support line. Straightforward trade with a straightforward target (midpoint line).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd066.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #428
  • Sep 16, 2008 5:36am Sep 16, 2008 5:36am
Quoting eyevoltage
I've not had time to settle down since I got up, hence the late posting of this opportunity this morning. Immediately I put the trade on, I was involved in domestic requirements that couldn't be postponed.

Anyway, the trade results from a small TL again, with the entry marked by a yellow tick under a support line. Straightforward trade with a straightforward target (midpoint line).
Good morning EV,

I caught part of that trade also, but it's been a volatile morning. I lost -21 pips right out of the gate today, then caught +28. Now I'm stuck in a very up and down one. I shorted at 1.4175 below the 50% fib (on 3-day range), trying to get to 4085, yesterday's low, before the news. This trade has looked very promising and very dangerous. Watching closely.

Have a good one,
Ed
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #429
  • Edited 5:47am Sep 16, 2008 5:46am | Edited 5:47am
Quoting SpecialEd
Good morning EV,

I caught part of that trade also, but it's been a volatile morning. I lost -21 pips right out of the gate today, then caught +28. Now I'm stuck in a very up and down one. I shorted at 1.4175 below the 50% fib (on 3-day range), trying to get to 4085, yesterday's low, before the news. This trade has looked very promising and very dangerous. Watching closely.

Have a good one,
Ed
Hello, mate. Not looking too good at the moment......price rising again.
  • #430
  • Sep 16, 2008 5:59am Sep 16, 2008 5:59am
Quoting eyevoltage
Hello, mate. Not looking too good at the moment......price rising again.
It's looking far better now. Looked like a great trade when I made it, but it's been very suspect. Holding my breath. Can't decide to take tp at first opportunity or consider that a breakout and let it run to original tp.

This is maybe a great long-term trade but not one if you're sitting watching the screen. I left and got the newspaper.

Too windy...
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #431
  • Sep 16, 2008 6:17am Sep 16, 2008 6:17am
Good morning guys

Plenty of volume from the FO, but price held in a 65 pip range so some accumulation was taking place - I guess it was the usual insiders getting ready for the data....the a high volume spike (hammer?) just to trigger stops above the DP and down they took it, 100 pips to the S1 level - that's probably a nice buy into the NY session - but I'm already short the swissy...

Edit; just closed swissy in a spike down to its S1 level - its time for lunch...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sep 16 euro 5m 1305.gif Size: 17 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #432
  • Sep 16, 2008 8:42am Sep 16, 2008 8:42am
This is a good fib example, and took about half-an-hour. Everything's clearly marked, including my entry and exit points. I originally intended to go for the 3rd Target, but decided that discretion was the better part of valour and used the psych-line instead. A real beauty, and I wish they could all be as easy as this. The best thing about fibs, of course, is that they're popping up all the time, and if you're sharp eyed, you'll have no problem spotting them.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd067.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #433
  • Sep 16, 2008 9:03am Sep 16, 2008 9:03am
EV,

To show how volatile and uncertain the EUR/USD market has been today, I'm still outstanding on that short from 1.4175. Been all over the market on this one, as the chart shows. We had a serious, unexplained downturn, and then we almost caught a morningstar (bad for me). Didn't quite make it, but still headed back up for a while.

Some of the oldtimers are making a fortune trading the dips today, I guess. For the novice and faint of heart, stay on sidelines.

Good day all,
Ed
Attached Image
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #434
  • Sep 16, 2008 9:17am Sep 16, 2008 9:17am
The dollars long term trend remains intact.

There's been rumors circulating that a 50 bp cut was in the making.

If the market believed that the dollar would have been destroyed.

We just suffered one of worst financial meltdowns in the history yet the EURO has remained on the defensive.

Trade what you see... not what you believe.

There are large positions long the dollar right now and they will protect those positions.

Several Oil guys I know upgraded their calls.

They see it stabilizing at 80/barrel.

I find that hard to believe but they haven't been wrong in a long time.

I'm not recommending you open new shorts... I'm recommending you remain flat until this storm has passed.

Mike
  • #435
  • Sep 16, 2008 9:26am Sep 16, 2008 9:26am
Quoting acumen
The dollars long term trend remains intact.

There's been rumors circulating that a 50 bp cut was in the making.

If the market believed that the dollar would have been destroyed.

We just suffered one of worst financial meltdowns in the history yet the EURO has remained on the defensive.

Trade what you see... not what you believe.

There are large positions long the dollar right now and they will protect those positions.

Several Oil guys I know upgraded their calls.

They see it stabilizing at 80/barrel.

I find that hard to believe but they haven't been wrong in a long time.

I'm not recommending you open new shorts... I'm recommending you remain flat until this storm has passed.

Mike
Thanks Acumen. Just trying to get out of this one with my shirt. I'm 17 PIPs away from break-even and it's going down again.

See you in EUR/USD. Thanks again.
Ed
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #436
  • Sep 16, 2008 9:29am Sep 16, 2008 9:29am
Acumen,

I just said I agreed (in previous post), but if you look on the M15, for the past two hours EUR/USD has been having lower highs and lower lows. Why do you know think it will continue down today?

Thanks.
Ed

I'm not saying "go short". I'm just reluctant to close a short trade that I've had open - and been battling with - for the past 5 hours. What do you think and why?
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #437
  • Sep 16, 2008 9:35am Sep 16, 2008 9:35am
[quote=SpecialEd;2222367]Acumen,

I just said I agreed (in previous post), but if you look on the M15, for the past two hours EUR/USD has been having lower highs and lower lows. Why do you know think it will continue down today?

Thanks.
Ed

Now I'm on the sidelines, but it looks like it's on the move down. Paulson must have said something very favorable to USD. Silver-tongued devil.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #438
  • Sep 16, 2008 9:49am Sep 16, 2008 9:49am
Attached is another look at the EUR/USD chart I've been working all day. Thought I'd post the update to show how a morningstar almost developed, which would have signaled a much-expected bullish reversal. Everyone and their brother on the EUR/USD thread, for example, was calling for upward movement. Today's USD news would indicate same, but as we know, the price action has not been very obedient, regarding news, lately.

Tried hard to reverse - all the action of a classic morningstar, except that price could not push hard enough up in one 15-minute candle to get it done. Barely made it putting two together (which would not be valid), and then crashed to a new daily low.

Trade what you see - with extreme caution in these times.

Hope this helps someone.
Ed
Attached Image
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #439
  • Sep 17, 2008 10:00am Sep 17, 2008 10:00am
Talking EUR/USD here. Note that 1.4200 is a powerful psych level, according to Father Acumen and a host of Forex technical analysts. Coupled with that is the 61.8% Fib (from yesterday's low), sitting at 1.4202. USD news is bad, and the price keeps trying to get through this area.

Heck of a good area to (1) bounce off of for scalping shorts or (2) to place buy stop above.

Hope this helps. I'm still long, based on my system.

Ed
Attached Image
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #440
  • Sep 17, 2008 12:48pm Sep 17, 2008 12:48pm
I was holding down the office today folks (meaning no one else in this thread!), so I posted most of my stuff on the EUR/USD thread. It was a very anxious day, with big, slow swings, but it was a great day to see the power of psychs, fibs and the confluence thereof.

Hope you all are having a good day.

Ed in the Swing State (Virginia)
Up or down, gimme a ticket
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