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Aussie Pairs

  • #141
  • Jan 8, 2007 11:08am Jan 8, 2007 11:08am
Quoting barakah
just when i was ready to double short this pair at 92.00, it bounced nicely up, love it or hate it...
We had a pin bar on 4hr near 61 fib and TL confluence.
Let the uptrend continue so we can collect extra money from a swap as well.
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  • #142
  • Jan 8, 2007 4:08pm Jan 8, 2007 4:08pm
what the tendency of aud/jpy now???


i m in long now.
Sorry about my english...
  • #143
  • Jan 8, 2007 6:21pm Jan 8, 2007 6:21pm
We had a pin bar on 4hr near 61 fib and TL confluence.
Let the uptrend continue so we can collect extra money from a swap as well. looks like you are in favor it will go for your next fib at 93++
happy trading
Right teaching produces right believing leads to right living. - J.P
  • #144
  • Feb 16, 2007 9:31am Feb 16, 2007 9:31am
Any down under traders here? I do not have a short term position on this pair at this time. I am watching it though. If I was long, I would stay long. I am hoping for the pair to move back down to the 7805-7814 level where I would consider a long entry. I may also consider a long entry above 7865 but not at this time.

I am looking to get long around 7805 for a move to 7865 and then 7931. A move below 7814 would cancel my long view.

I will keep an eye out on this one.

DRT

http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-16-2007.PNG
  • #145
  • Feb 19, 2007 12:42am Feb 19, 2007 12:42am
This could be a good place to short upon failure to the upside. What are your thoughts?
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  • #146
  • Edited 2:26am Feb 19, 2007 2:26am | Edited 2:26am
That's exactly what's on my chart, a couple of well placed limit orders should do the trick.
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #147
  • Feb 19, 2007 7:59am Feb 19, 2007 7:59am
Good thoughts guys. Here is what I have. I would look for a retest of the 7865 area before setting up any shorts. Then a move down. Likewise a move back above here would indicate further upside to 7931 area.


Here are the daily levels for AUDUSD. Again, if you elect to go short then cover on a move above 7865 or so. If price moves down cover your short for profit at the 7814 level. I would set up longs here at this time, but that view may change.


http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-19-2007.PNG

Here is the 60M chart for a better view. Remember, the magenta colored levels change every hour. Yellow are static and will not change for now.

http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-19-2007.PNG
  • #148
  • Feb 19, 2007 2:47pm Feb 19, 2007 2:47pm
Here's a long term look. Clearly, the .8000 level needs to be breached for any further advances. Otherwise a correction to the blue trendline is likely, a breach of which would open the way to the march 04 low of 0.6770.
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  • #149
  • Feb 19, 2007 2:55pm Feb 19, 2007 2:55pm
So how are you trading this based on your analysis?
  • #150
  • Feb 19, 2007 3:35pm Feb 19, 2007 3:35pm
There's a triangle forming on the 1 hr chart, so the reasonable way is to wait for a breakout either up or down, also notice the bearish divergence, so I would lean towards a short. But best best is it wait and see which wait itll go. Whats your view on this?
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  • #151
  • Feb 19, 2007 3:55pm Feb 19, 2007 3:55pm
My view is in the above post. 7865 is the key on a short term basis. Moving out of this area makes me think long. Below it short down to 7820/10 area where I would cover and go long.

I'll update after the NA close with tomorrow's levels.

Let me ask you a question in general if you don't mind. If you were to take that MACD thingy off your chart and tell me what you see on the hourly chart, would you tell me it is a good shorting opportunity?


Quoting zawodowiec
There's a triangle forming on the 1 hr chart, so the reasonable way is to wait for a breakout either up or down, also notice the bearish divergence, so I would lean towards a short. But best best is it wait and see which wait itll go. Whats your view on this?
  • #152
  • Feb 19, 2007 4:06pm Feb 19, 2007 4:06pm
I guess a lot of it depends on the USD sentiment, last week the dollar depreciated against most currencies, and it can be clearly seen on this pair. Certainly, if the upper trendline breaks, it is a good sign to go long. But that would mean further dollar depreciation. Previous two rallier ended in a major sell off. Right now, I don't see any point in taking position in either direction until a move in some direction happens.
  • #153
  • Feb 19, 2007 4:35pm Feb 19, 2007 4:35pm
I would agree that a sideline approach is a good one. Until you get some confirmation. I like your thinking on this.

I just wanted to point out that indicator divergence is often a countertrend trading method. My bet is that you are not the only one who sees this and it is priced in the market. The dealers are salivating.

Take the MACD off and look at that hourly chart. I see some major strength coming from somewhere. The V bottom rocket upward. It sort of looks like there was an emotional shakeout. If the market is short this pair, and it moves up, shorts will be covered quickly and this is what makes the market move. I don't care about any fundamental dollar issues when I look at an hourly chart. I see emotional positioning. My job is to think like everyone else so I can understand what they are thinking and position myself on the other side. Not an easy task by any means.

Nice job on your analysis.
DRT



Quoting zawodowiec
I guess a lot of it depends on the USD sentiment, last week the dollar depreciated against most currencies, and it can be clearly seen on this pair. Certainly, if the upper trendline breaks, it is a good sign to go long. But that would mean further dollar depreciation. Previous two rallier ended in a major sell off. Right now, I don't see any point in taking position in either direction until a move in some direction happens.
  • #154
  • Feb 19, 2007 5:03pm Feb 19, 2007 5:03pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
...
I see some major strength coming from somewhere. The V bottom rocket upward. It sort of looks like there was an emotional shakeout. If the market is short this pair, and it moves up, shorts will be covered quickly and this is what makes the market move. I don't care about any fundamental dollar issues when I look at an hourly chart. I see emotional positioning. My job is to think like everyone else so I can understand what they are thinking and position myself on the other side. Not an easy task by any means.
DRT,

can you elaborate where do you see emotional shakeout and potential strength?

I usually use PA, trends and volumes to see the market strucutre. I do not trade this pair but it looks to me that this might break the high with shakeoup long before comming down. Again, this is just a casual look at this chart without running my own analysis.

Wanted to hear your view. I like your approach and thinking
  • #155
  • Feb 19, 2007 5:40pm Feb 19, 2007 5:40pm
All I was saying is that .... when I look at this from a generic point of view....I saw a retrace begin and we got to a value point where lots of traders got short or added to shorts expecting the downtrend to resume. Well it did resume for a time, but then suddenly those short traders got squeezed back down near the bottom as price continued to move up and continue on its uptrend path.

Whenever I see something like this, I just try to ask myself why it happened. I would say that the perception of the value of this pair has changed in the near term so I will look for clues.

Just an observation, not really something you can quantify.



http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertrader/audanomoly.PNG
  • #156
  • Feb 19, 2007 5:47pm Feb 19, 2007 5:47pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
All I was saying is that .... when I look at this from a generic point of view....I saw a retrace begin and we got to a value point where lots of traders got short or added to shorts expecting the downtrend to resume. Well it did resume for a time, but then suddenly those short traders got squeezed back down near the bottom as price continued to move up and continue on its uptrend path.

Whenever I see something like this, I just try to ask myself why it happened. I would say that the perception of the value of this pair has changed in the near term so I will look for clues.

Just an observation, not really something you can quantify.



http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertrader/audanomoly.PNG


Yeah, that definitely makes sense now. I didn't notice this trendline either. So what would YOU consider a change of trend to the downside?
  • #157
  • Feb 19, 2007 5:53pm Feb 19, 2007 5:53pm
Here are the daily levels for 2-20. Not much has changed. Notice how the River level is the same as the yellow transistion level. This is very strong support and I will take a long here everytime.

60M chart follows with short term levels



http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-20-2007.PNG


7873/65 is the near term key. Long above this level to 7931. A move down from this level and I would definitely cover and go long at 7814/7809.


http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-20-2007.PNG
  • #158
  • Feb 20, 2007 6:35am Feb 20, 2007 6:35am
Good morning everyone. Not much as changed with this pair. We seem to be continuing to test the 7865 level. Same thoughts on this one. I would look to get long on a move up out of this area for a target of 7931. If we move down then 7814/7809. I would cover any shorts here and look to set up longs. This is the best trade set up for me on this pair. Waiting to get long on a move down to the River area that is.

Use the charts above they are still valid.

Good luck.
  • #159
  • Feb 20, 2007 7:13pm Feb 20, 2007 7:13pm
Here are today's levels. I recently established longs.

This pair remains in the middle of Zone 1. I set up an aggressive long late today. My target is 7931/40. A strong move back thru the 7872 level and I will likely cover and stand aside.

If price does move down, I would establish new longs in the 7814 area with a target of 7872, then 7931.

Good luck.


http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-21-2007.PNG
  • #160
  • Feb 21, 2007 12:03am Feb 21, 2007 12:03am
Aud/usd : Indeed in an interesting position,
My short bias with stops above 1.7930...
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