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  • #30,261
  • Sep 15, 2008 8:16am Sep 15, 2008 8:16am
Quoting cgldsmth
well EUR has decisively broken a 3 year trend line (look at monthly chart) so any long positions are very high risk IMHO.
Only if 1.3850 breaks consistently!
Very danger to trade now, but short are riskier at this time.

My Danger level "Must not cross" was not broken, that's good sign for longs.
  • #30,262
  • Sep 15, 2008 8:21am Sep 15, 2008 8:21am
damn euro go long I said! Whenever I place a trade today damn euro go opposite direction at once, damn!!!
  • #30,263
  • Sep 15, 2008 8:21am Sep 15, 2008 8:21am
Quoting psiholog
i think i know the main reason behind the dollars rally. alot of banks like the ecb pumped alot of their currency in the markets...the only one that didnt do so is the us dollar. this is probably in preparation for this bloody wall street day. regardless..more of one currency=make the other currency stronger which has less money invested. am i right/wrong...opinions?
I am not following you sompletely, on those last sentences, but don't over analyze. Too much of the dollar would make it worth less.
  • #30,264
  • Sep 15, 2008 8:22am Sep 15, 2008 8:22am
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_nmIuQsC9b-...R_USD+Spot.pnghttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/_nmIuQsC9b-...R_USD+Spot.png
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  • #30,265
  • Sep 15, 2008 8:22am Sep 15, 2008 8:22am
Quoting cgldsmth
well EUR has decisively broken a 3 year trend line (look at monthly chart) so any long positions are very high risk IMHO.
We have a 6 year monthly LTL that is still holding the uptrend. On the dayly though we are inside a descending channel and today price bounced hard from its UTL @ around .4480 (also resistance at same level). Keep it simple and dont fight the trend, unless we break out of this dayly downtrend channel.
  • #30,266
  • Sep 15, 2008 8:23am Sep 15, 2008 8:23am
[quote=SpecialEd;2219648]

Mostly, we're a bunch of 2nd/3rd career old farts ...


Special Ed:

Bullseye. Could not have said it better.
  • #30,267
  • Sep 15, 2008 8:25am Sep 15, 2008 8:25am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
I am not following you sompletely, on those last sentences, but don't over analyze. Too much of the dollar would make it worth less.
no no it was the other way around....more of the other currencies...dollar the same..maybe less?...i donno your right over analyzing whats done is done
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #30,268
  • Sep 15, 2008 8:28am Sep 15, 2008 8:28am
Just reading some Barclay analysis.

If oil is at 100, if Fed is at 1.5% and if ECB is 4.25% - probable exchange rate for the pair is 1.50.
  • #30,269
  • Sep 15, 2008 8:28am Sep 15, 2008 8:28am
... if US goverment banckrupcy then EUR/USD shold be stronger, right? .....
  • #30,270
  • Sep 15, 2008 8:33am Sep 15, 2008 8:33am
Quoting Algirdas
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_nmIuQsC9b-...R_USD+Spot.pnghttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/_nmIuQsC9b-...R_USD+Spot.png
We will see 1.45 before 1.40, this is my opinion!
  • #30,271
  • Sep 15, 2008 8:35am Sep 15, 2008 8:35am
Quoting dogol
... if US goverment banckrupcy then EUR/USD shold be stronger, right? .....

depends. I would think the worlds richest people would prefer to have Euros over USD, but it's really tough to tie that to todays exchange rates. I would think the richest would like to buy euros cheaper...we will see.
  • #30,272
  • Sep 15, 2008 8:35am Sep 15, 2008 8:35am
Quoting belekas
We have a 6 year monthly LTL that is still holding the uptrend. On the dayly though we are inside a descending channel and today price bounced hard from its UTL @ around .4480 (also resistance at same level). Keep it simple and dont fight the trend, unless we break out of this dayly downtrend channel.
LRC and a (badly drawn!) TL shows a clear break on weekly chart at least.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.gif Size: 23 KB
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  • #30,273
  • Sep 15, 2008 8:36am Sep 15, 2008 8:36am
Algirdas always has a very high accuracy prediction tho
Money often costs too much...
  • #30,274
  • Sep 15, 2008 8:36am Sep 15, 2008 8:36am
only way I see the monthly being within trend is to draw the TL to the current monthly low, which cannot be seen as a valid TL.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur2.gif Size: 18 KB
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  • #30,275
  • Sep 15, 2008 8:37am Sep 15, 2008 8:37am
I will not buy this rally. Gonna have to wait for retrace...they will shake out the chasers.

Already hit resistance on 15 min 20SMA...I should shut down...20% so far today, but it's so fun
  • #30,276
  • Sep 15, 2008 8:40am Sep 15, 2008 8:40am
any chance 1.4400 today? Anybody think so?

M
  • #30,277
  • Sep 15, 2008 8:42am Sep 15, 2008 8:42am
lehman is at .30cents...lets buy buy buy now...or rather...sell...massive profit

i said it earlier...i will say it again...i still see 1.45+ today....im still long yes!!!
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #30,278
  • Sep 15, 2008 8:42am Sep 15, 2008 8:42am
I think that 1.44 is not out of reach.
  • #30,279
  • Sep 15, 2008 8:45am Sep 15, 2008 8:45am
I close trades with 300$ profit which Japan stole from me in the early morning, damn again, I could get much more, as euro contunues long direction!
  • #30,280
  • Sep 15, 2008 8:45am Sep 15, 2008 8:45am
Trendline not yet broken.
Monthly RSI has a good support at 49.50, now at 54.52, went to about 51.00.

I see good support around 1.3430, we can see this week a Neutral/Bullish to Euro.

For Long Term Trades:
Shorts around 1.4790
Longs around 1.3490
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 45 KB
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