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New Mouteki Method...

  • #581
  • Sep 13, 2008 2:41pm Sep 13, 2008 2:41pm
Quoting plind
Ozzie Dave, On the chart above (573) are the fib zone lines from an indicator or do you do them manually? I would like to have a template of that chart and the indicators necessary to make it work. Thanks for your post they are very informative. Paul
Hi Paul,

I've just modified the fib rettracement indicator that is standard in MT4. Settings are 0, 100, 144, 233, 377 ect. I place the 0 baseline point on the high or low and add or subtract 100 from that value and place that value in the parameters filed and it automaticallly sets the 100 point. All other points are set when the 100 point is set. I just used the 100 point because it was easier to add/subtract 100 to the 0 point than adding or subtracting 144. I've attached a template with the indicator below.
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl dp 140908.tpl   10 KB | 388 downloads
  • #582
  • Sep 13, 2008 3:52pm Sep 13, 2008 3:52pm
I've attached a Daily USDCHF chart so we can continue our discussion of the currency pair. On this chart you will notice that price touches the 377 fib zone at point E and goes pretty much straight up to point C without any noticable retracement. If you drop down to a 4 hr chart and pull fib retracements from point A to any swing high that occurs after point B you will see that none of the fib retracements are valid because price never retraces back to any of the inner fib level of 38,50 or 61.

So I started to ask myself what is a trader to do if they've missed the break out at point B? The question for me was..where is current price, what is it doing and how do I determine an entry point? As we can see, after the fact, price has moved about 600 pips from point B to point C and let's be honest most of us would hate to miss out on all of those pips. Most Forex books and Gurus will tell us in an up trend you "buy on a pullback". According to the Mouteki fib retracement rule there is no valid pullback that occurs after point C is broken. So how do we get involved in this up swing if you missed the pullback to point E? One day last week I was looking at the daily CHF chart and noticed that after the breakout at point C there was period that price seemed to stall at before it moved higher again. If you take a look at the blue shaded area you'll see what I mean. On a Daily chart it may not look like much but this consolidation lasted for a bit more than 2 weeks. It also occurred to me that the blue shaded area looked very similair to the gray shaded area just a bit more condensed.

What I decided to do was to map out the blue shaded area to see if their was any fib harmony that would allow me to get involved in the current up swing. In the next post I will review my findings.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #583
  • Sep 13, 2008 4:13pm Sep 13, 2008 4:13pm
Hello everyone,
I was just curious if anyone else is in this trade.I entered before this retracement that is happening.I am still pretty confident it will hit the 987 sequence.Just wish I would have waited to enter...oh well live and learn they say.good trading to all of you!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #584
  • Sep 13, 2008 5:09pm Sep 13, 2008 5:09pm
Quoting hanover
Monkey, my understanding of what is meant "self-fulfilling prophecy" is this: if enough influential traders believe that a reversal is going to occur at a significant point (e.g. S/R, or Fibo retracement area), then they will place their orders accordingly. The presence of these large orders will then cause the reversal to actually occur.

David
Good point, David! There is no magic (as such) in Fibos as there is no "market". Market is a "group psycology"/"collective wisdom" (madness of the crowd ) - i.e. when majority of all those individual traders in large banks and hedge fund think alike (i.e. use the same reference points), they will act in unison in respect of those points/levels.

In other words, price (again, there is no "price") doesn't follow the Fibos - traders do. If Mouteki was the only one out there who knew of, for exampe, Fibo sequence, I doubt it the price would "stick" to those levels.

The same logic applies to S/R - when the majority of the (BIG) traders keep an eye on a certain historic price point, of course the price will "stick" to that point.

That makes me think - if the price does respect (often TO THE PIP) Fibo "Mouteki" Zones, someone else (and not just one person) should be using the same/similar method. Maybe those traders read Mouteki's blog or maybe Mouteki's Fibo system was inspired (or "inspired") by smth he learned from some of the "big boys".

One way or another, the system works (in general/in principle), and that's all that matters...
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #585
  • Sep 13, 2008 5:16pm Sep 13, 2008 5:16pm
Here again is a daily chart of the HF. On 2 September Mouteki in his Video Forex Truth 2 reviewed the placement of the fib zone and fib retracements on this pair. Since that time price has moved up some more and all of the fib expansions have been taken out except for Fib A which as the 161 expasion still intact (chart1). I've added fib B but this fib won't be valid until price retraces back to the 38, 50 or 61 inner fib level. There is a chance that the inner fib levels of fib B won't be hit making fib B invalid for this analysis. So at this point I have the 161 expansion (green dotted line @ 1.1730) that hasn't been taken out which leads me to believe this pair is going to go higher.

The second chart is a 4 hr snap shot of that blue shaded area that we've identified as consolidation on the daily chart. During the time of the consolidation Now keep in mind that I was trying to find a way to get involved in the up trend since I missed the original pullback to point E and the breakout at point B (previous daily chart). When I noticed that we we in a consolidative phase I started to pull fib retracements from every new low to every new high above the yellow line. At first none of them had any harmony. Then finally I we had a breakout of the consolidation from point A to point B. I pulled the fib retracement and waited to see if I would get a pullback to one of the inner fibs and bingo we had a pullback to he 50% fib retracement level (point C). Since price had gone so far up so fast I wanted to be safe so I decided to wait for a beakout at point B before I entered a long position. Price broke point B and I jumped in with both feet. I felt a bit reasurred considering in Mouteki's video he thought price was going to go up. Price has now gone to point D and started to retrace so I pulled another fib retracement (tan lines) and waited to see if the harmony would continue. There we had it again at point E a retrace to the 38% inner fib of the last swing high. I didn't want to chance what I thought was "my good luck" on the last trade so I stayed out of this move. So here we are price has made a new high at point F and looks like it's starting to retrace, so I pulled a new fib and I am patiently waiting to see if harmony continues with this pair.

I believe price will make a minor pullback and continue up and I'll show you why in the next post.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: chf 4hr t6.gif Size: 41 KB
  • #586
  • Edited 10:07pm Sep 13, 2008 5:47pm | Edited 10:07pm
Here is the final installment of my epic discovery. Chart 1 is the daily picture of the last 4 hr chart that I showed you. All of the points A,B, C, D, E and F are still shown. Here is why I think the CHF is going to go higher before we see a major retracement back to the 987 fib zone. The original 161 fib expansion (green dotted line) from Mouteki's analysis is still out there @ 1.1730. Now if you take a look at the fibs that I've added from the blue shaded area you can see that the 161 fib expansion level from fib A to B and the 100 and 161 fib expansions from fib C-D are all still intact and the 2584 fib zone is just above that.

The next chart is the 4hr hr chart showing what I believe will happen before we retrace back to the 987 fib zone and attempt a push back up to the 2584 fib zone. Just follow the aqua line....

To Mouteki..sorry if it appears that I high jacked your thread...I was just excited to share the information that I had discovered while doing my chart analysis. I do hope my charts and comments were helpful.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chf daily t7.gif Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: chf 4hr t8.gif Size: 37 KB
  • #587
  • Sep 13, 2008 5:47pm Sep 13, 2008 5:47pm
Quoting hanover
Seriously though, if anybody's interested in an MT4-based facsimile of this, you might be interested in looking here (and see attached screenshot). This indicator both shows price's response to prior news events (hover the mouse cursor near the top of a circular symbol to see the announcement details), and also warns of upcoming news events. All data is sourced from FF calendar.
A quick look at the news impact (especially on large TF, e.g. H4) shows that many MAJOR reversals or moves were not triggered by news. I wonder whether those event occured at major Fibo points (or some major S/R levels based on historic highs/lows/"sticky point")...
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #588
  • Sep 13, 2008 9:50pm Sep 13, 2008 9:50pm
So, as I'm trying to put together this cool fib&fund presentation...I realized that you all have been talking about this news plugin for mt4...

You see, I am not to smart when it comes to these charts, I only use them since most all in the forum use them.

It would be great if I could get this feature in the charts...would make my life a lot easier and help me put together some cool stuff for you all to enjoy.

I tried getting it but to be honest, got lost in the first post of the thread...it's so long...

If someone could hook me up with this I would appreciate it sooo much!!!

Thanks,
M

ps...I hope you don't think im lazy and dont want to figure it out myself, I was just hoping to get a guiding hand...thanks again
  • #589
  • Sep 13, 2008 10:54pm Sep 13, 2008 10:54pm
Hey Mouteki, not sure which news plugin you were referring to but you could try this thread which has a news indicator:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=16364
  • #590
  • Sep 13, 2008 11:16pm Sep 13, 2008 11:16pm
I got the zip file...thanks...

how can i tell since the markets are closed how much a time difference my mt4 has from forexfactory?
  • #591
  • Sep 13, 2008 11:44pm Sep 13, 2008 11:44pm
Hmm, that would depends on your broker I guess, Im using IBFX and its GMT+0.
  • #592
  • Sep 14, 2008 1:06am Sep 14, 2008 1:06am
Quoting moutekitrader
I got the zip file...thanks...

how can i tell since the markets are closed how much a time difference my mt4 has from forexfactory?
Hi Mouteki,

I read the info on the News plug in and it appears that you really should wait until your broker is open so you can get the live data feed. Also, on the calendar tab of FF you can set the Forum time to match your local time or your brokers time.

The link below will allow you to see what time it is anywhere in the world and you can compare it to your local time.

http://wwp.greenwichmeantime.com/

If you're USA EST you are -4 behind GMT.
  • #593
  • Edited 2:19am Sep 14, 2008 1:50am | Edited 2:19am
Quoting silkrhino
Since the 50% default of the expansion fib is always being used why not just add those levels to the retracement fib? Then you only have to draw one fib for the retracement and expansion.

The levels to add to the metatrader retracement tool are:

1.118
1.5
1.882
2.118

See the attached image for how this looks in comparison with using the expansion fib.

On that note, it seems like using the expansion fib in this way where you are always extending from a 50% retrace (even if the price retraced more or less than 50%) would take you out of harmony with the price movement.

In my head it seems like to stay in harmony either:

a. adjust the expansion fib so it is expanded off the actual price retracement

or

b. use the 138.2, 161.8, and 261.8 levels of a retracement fib as the expansions as these are in sequence with the retracement fib.

Now that being said if what you are doing works, then it works and you can't argue with that! I'm just curious if there is any reason behind it or if the reason is just that it works.

Anyhow great thread and videos, thanks for sharing.
You are right.

For my software I have to add -0.118, -0.50, -1.118, -2.118 for the FE's 61.8, FE 100.0, FE 1.618 and FE 2.618 respectively. Works perfectly, a little more accurate, easier to handle on the charts because all the levels are in one color. You do not have to go back into properties every time you draw an expansion and change the color.

Some people may prefer what they doing already, it's just an option.
  • #594
  • Sep 14, 2008 2:01am Sep 14, 2008 2:01am
I got some alternative ways in which to look at fib zones..... here is one of them.

Using fib sequence numbers, move the decimal point on usable numbers,

eg,

89 --> 0.8900
144 --> 1.4400
987 --> 0.9870
1597 --> 1.5970

then plot these values on the chart you are interested in, you can drop down in time frames to see if price respected these levels, if so use them as a Zero Base and see if price respected the fib zone levels drawn above and below. Notice how price respects these levels before it even reaches the Zero Base. I have no idea how to use this but I thought I'd throw it out there.

Dean.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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perception is reality
  • #595
  • Sep 14, 2008 2:13am Sep 14, 2008 2:13am
Quoting ozziedave
Here is the final installment of my epic discovery. Chart 1 is the daily picture of the last 4 hr chart that I showed you. All of the points A,B, C, D, E and F are still shown. Here is why I think the CHF is going to go higher before we see a major retracement back to the 987 fib zone. The original 161 fib expansion (green dotted line) from Mouteki's analysis is still out there @ 1.1730. Now if you take a look at the fibs that I've added from the blue shaded area you can see that the 161 fib expansion level from fib A to B and the 100 and 161 fib expansions from fib C-D are all still intact and the 2584 fib zone is just above that.

The next chart is the 4hr hr chart showing what I believe will happen before we retrace back to the 987 fib zone and attempt a push back up to the 2584 fib zone. Just follow the aqua line....

To Mouteki..sorry if it appears that I high jacked your thread...I was just excited to share the information that I had discovered while doing my chart analysis. I do hope my charts and comments were helpful.
hi Ozziedave ,

If you see the usd \ chf going up towards the 161 expansion , before retracing , does it means that you see the eur\usd going down again to a new low before retracing?

I ask that since the two pairs has usually strong correlation...
  • #596
  • Edited 3:42am Sep 14, 2008 2:54am | Edited 3:42am
Quoting Barak's pip
hi Ozziedave ,

If you see the usd \ chf going up towards the 161 expansion , before retracing , does it means that you see the eur\usd going down again to a new low before retracing?

I ask that since the two pairs has usually strong correlation...
Hi Barak..

I don't think we'll have a major retrace on the CHf until we go a bit higher first. If we break the 1.0842 level to the downside then we'll have a major retrace in the making. For the EUR analysis please see post 527 and 528..yes I believe we will see a move up before we resume the down trend.
  • #597
  • Sep 14, 2008 3:28am Sep 14, 2008 3:28am
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Barak..

Please see post 527 and 528..yes I believe we will see a move up before we resume the down trend.
I've just read it , and I'm a bit confused - you expect the e\u to make a correction, meanning a relative small up move before going back down , and in the same time you expect the usd\chf going up to the 161 fib , before making a correction (retracement)?

not being crittical , just trying to understand better...
  • #598
  • Sep 14, 2008 5:17am Sep 14, 2008 5:17am
Taking OD's excellent work here's my shorter term chart....I'm looking either for an early reversal in the first green area around the gold fibs OR a deeper, longer retrace in line with the yellow fib and into the second green area.

A bounce out of either and a break to new highs opens the way for any of the higher levels to come into play.

I'll be watching on my 15m chart and ready to jump on board as soon as I get a signal......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #599
  • Sep 14, 2008 6:17am Sep 14, 2008 6:17am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Here is GBPCHF weekly chart. I drew the fib zones off the yearly open which is at 2.2437. I know this is not according to Mouteki, so I am sorry if this offensive to the spirit of this thread.

Based on this GBPCHF has been ranging between the -1597 and -2584 fib zones and as it is it seems likely on its way to test the -1597 zone again.

And again, if this post is not proper here then it may just be deleted, no problem
  • #600
  • Edited 3:40pm Sep 14, 2008 7:55am | Edited 3:40pm
Quoting Barak's pip
I've just read it , and I'm a bit confused - you expect the e\u to make a correction, meanning a relative small up move before going back down , and in the same time you expect the usd\chf going up to the 161 fib , before making a correction (retracement)?

not being crittical , just trying to understand better...
Barak..

Some of those retraces are maybe anywhere from 100-300 pips. I do expect the EUR to go down but I think it may retrace long before that happens. That's the same for CHF..a retrace short before going long again. Now that doesn't mean that both pairs might not take off in the major trend direction without a retrace. Like I said before I'm a bit impatient so what I was trying to figure out is a way to trade the corrections to major trends, so that is why I am pulling some fibs in the opposite direction at times. In both instances, it appears that the EUR and CHF are looking like they need to retrace before they resume the major trend direction. Now, this may not happen on Monday, it may take a few days before the reversal point is formed. This is where support and resistance areas help identify where turning points might occur. For instance, if you look at the AUDUSD on a weekly chart you will see it hit a big time support area last week and is starting to retrace. How high will it retrace..I don't know but if you start to pull fibs to the upside and you see harmony we may be in for a large retrace before it resumes the down trend. Again, you have to watch price action in conjunction with what Mouteki is teaching us.
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