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EURUSD

  • #29,901
  • Sep 13, 2008 7:53am Sep 13, 2008 7:53am
http://www.xe.com/
Don't Blame Yourself This Is Forex...
  • #29,902
  • Sep 13, 2008 7:56am Sep 13, 2008 7:56am
Quoting Jurrasic
Oanda shows no gaps, price stays 4229.5

Actual Price Showed :1.4144/46

http://www.tenfore.com/markets.asp?symbol=EURUSDLITEx
http://www.xe.com/
  • #29,903
  • Sep 13, 2008 8:03am Sep 13, 2008 8:03am
Morning Star with a Dragonfly Doji in the middle. I will wait for pullback and head long.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #29,904
  • Sep 13, 2008 8:08am Sep 13, 2008 8:08am
Oanda does not show any movements during weekends, although there are no gaps ever..
  • #29,905
  • Sep 13, 2008 8:51am Sep 13, 2008 8:51am
Quoting WhiteSwan
Oanda does not show any movements during weekends, although there are no gaps ever..
It does, I've seen it in April when there was G8 and a big gap down, as I remember at least. Anyway, it allows you to enter trades now, you think they don't care the quote is wrong ?
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #29,906
  • Edited 11:23am Sep 13, 2008 10:11am | Edited 11:23am
My point of view:

Last smaller inside downchannel hasn't been broken yet (would be around 1.4280). Nor bigger downtrend channel median.

Trendlines have been set manually to the high's values.

Equidistant channels drawn with Andrew's Pitchfork.

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f2...eptember-2.gif

Smaller timeframe views:

There is a strong resistance at around 1.43 (see M15 and D1 charts) which I think it is going to retest and possibly bounce back down (possible double top - H1)

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f2..._sept_h1-1.gif

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f2...sept_m15-1.gif

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f2..._sept_d1-1.gif
  • #29,907
  • Sep 13, 2008 10:35am Sep 13, 2008 10:35am
Interesting, the 229.5 quote was from Oanda's demo, I logged on to my real account and it's 228.5. Weird.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #29,908
  • Sep 13, 2008 10:52am Sep 13, 2008 10:52am
Just want to share what I noticed as a support level on longer time frame with major pairs. what's happened with eur/usd and gbp/usd as these pairs are corellated and follow each other.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.gif Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #29,909
  • Sep 13, 2008 11:36am Sep 13, 2008 11:36am
my first try at medium trend trading failed.. enter shorts at start of week... until thursday, had much profit. . so trying to continue with the medium trend which is short, i did not lower down my SL...

come friday .. suffered loss

can i have some guidance on how can i better trade medium term.. it short,

1) it doesnt require me to check constantly on positions.. perhaps once in an hour or two

2) it should last weeks. ( after this week, i can reconsidering this.. those old time players, this kind of start to end week reversal, is it common or just some freak accident ? )

pls advise...
  • #29,910
  • Sep 13, 2008 11:50am Sep 13, 2008 11:50am
Long term EURUSD
Sorry for my bad english.. hope this one helps


Just My Two Cents

http://i50.photobucket.com/albums/f3...crackerz/1.jpg

http://i50.photobucket.com/albums/f3...crackerz/4.jpg
  • #29,911
  • Sep 13, 2008 12:04pm Sep 13, 2008 12:04pm
Short term EU. 1h chart.
Sorry.. my analyst is too messy
I try to make it more clearer next time

http://i50.photobucket.com/albums/f3...crackerz/5.jpg
  • #29,912
  • Edited 12:27pm Sep 13, 2008 12:16pm | Edited 12:27pm
My analysis homework this week is:
Most of you know that I’m not trading fundamentals because I don’t know enough of them and my trading style don’t need them, but that doesn’t mean that I don’t try to guess what’s going on in economy. As I say, I’m not a scientific on that; I only believe that I have a normal common sense as a business man since over 30 years.
I heard this weekend from a friend some reasons on the correction but I don’t want to throw it in before I’m surer that they are correct. The source is the same guy (he’s French) that told me that EUR will reach 1.50 till 2008 in 2001 (luck or knowledge?).

As I stated several times, I don’t believe that this correction, here called down trend, is based on fundis, the EU zone didn’t like a too strong EUR because their export prices got out of competition prices. There is nothing better then having the BCE (the Trichet dude) talking about recession and that stuff to get it corrected and that was working well.

Now after getting to a “strong dollar”, why the $ is strong, any reasons on that?
Is it Fanny and Freddy or Lehman or the actual gas prices, new car sells or the unemployment rates?
Just ask yourself if you are living in US, are you feeling a strong currency, do you live well and are able to save money for traveling building your dream home or whatever?

So after a correction that might not be over and out (there is still space, for ex. the 61.8 level, if investors feel that it’s a good deal to buy $$), there are coming fundamentals in game now and what we have seen lately, they are not in favor of the US economy and the market is reacting on that at the end.
I lost several pips trading the news lately, bad US news and EUR falling, so what’s the reason?

The photo shows the actual gas prices (today) in Chicago that a friend of mine is visiting at the moment, we are at an oil price of almost 100$/b, imagine what happens if crude rises again for any reason (for ex. Hugo Chaves is some kind of pi$$ed off of USA) !!! Germany has high gas prices as long as I can think, due to taxes on that and it’s easier to correct the price in times of spikes just lowering the tax for a while. So the car owners have been costumed to that and it doesn’t hit the family outcome that much (but hurts a little).

My overall scalping direction for the moment will be long because of strong reversal patterns on higher timeframes, until I see that it gets reversed again on whatever reason.

Happy trading and a nice weekend to all of you.
Attached Image
  • #29,913
  • Sep 13, 2008 1:30pm Sep 13, 2008 1:30pm
Quoting cobraforex
My analysis homework this week is:
Most of you know that I’m not trading fundamentals because I don’t know enough of them and my trading style don’t need them, but that doesn’t mean that I don’t try to guess what’s going on in economy. As I say, I’m not a scientific on that; I only believe that I have a normal common sense as a business man since over 30 years.
I heard this weekend from a friend some reasons on the correction but I don’t want to throw it in before I’m surer that they are correct. The source is the same guy (he’s French) that told me that EUR will reach 1.50 till 2008 in 2001 (luck or knowledge?).

As I stated several times, I don’t believe that this correction, here called down trend, is based on fundis, the EU zone didn’t like a too strong EUR because their export prices got out of competition prices. There is nothing better then having the BCE (the Trichet dude) talking about recession and that stuff to get it corrected and that was working well.

Now after getting to a “strong dollar”, why the $ is strong, any reasons on that?
Is it Fanny and Freddy or Lehman or the actual gas prices, new car sells or the unemployment rates?
Just ask yourself if you are living in US, are you feeling a strong currency, do you live well and are able to save money for traveling building your dream home or whatever?

So after a correction that might not be over and out (there is still space, for ex. the 61.8 level, if investors feel that it’s a good deal to buy $$), there are coming fundamentals in game now and what we have seen lately, they are not in favor of the US economy and the market is reacting on that at the end.
I lost several pips trading the news lately, bad US news and EUR falling, so what’s the reason?

The photo shows the actual gas prices (today) in Chicago that a friend of mine is visiting at the moment, we are at an oil price of almost 100$/b, imagine what happens if crude rises again for any reason (for ex. Hugo Chaves is some kind of pi$$ed off of USA) !!! Germany has high gas prices as long as I can think, due to taxes on that and it’s easier to correct the price in times of spikes just lowering the tax for a while. So the car owners have been costumed to that and it doesn’t hit the family outcome that much (but hurts a little).

My overall scalping direction for the moment will be long because of strong reversal patterns on higher timeframes, until I see that it gets reversed again on whatever reason.

Happy trading and a nice weekend to all of you.

im somewhat surprised to find someone have the same thoughts, imma clearing something and im not expecting anyone to believe it,

in the middle of this world where we're having an armament and industry race some great countries have realized that they will loose control soon enough, you might wonder why and here're one main and realistic reason:

in the middle of knowledge sharing each country is able to manufacture any thing whether its a car, weapon, energy or whatever at any quality, but the thing is how will the country stay in control while what it create and manufacture is being created and manufactured in other countries at the same quality? there will be no foreign customers looking for your goods because they have the same good in their country at the same quality and maybe the cost, then the focus will be turned on the third world customers because they still dont have the ability to create at a good levels,

now the question is, which good will the third world consumer choose? if you take a quick look at the poor countries you can clearly see that they prefer the chinese and the japanese goods not because they have higher quality but because they're much more cheaper not only because of their lower manufacturing costs but also because of their low currencies, so great countries should've gotten the race to devalue started.

i believe that we're going to meet a day where there're 2 goods in the market, made by China and the other one made by America, the both at the same quality expect the American one is cheaper, this not only attract the third world consumers but also the industrial countries consumers, they'll have both domestic production and foreign production, same quality but the foreign is cheaper..

i guess we start to see this consumers actions in the UK.

i think they're going into terms, this term will be done within 2 years, and another term shall start after 6 years..
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #29,914
  • Sep 13, 2008 2:41pm Sep 13, 2008 2:41pm
http://fxtradeinfocenter.oanda.com/c...is/4cast.shtml

look: Sep 12 17:06

interesting comments about EURUSD movement in Friday ..
  • #29,915
  • Sep 13, 2008 5:38pm Sep 13, 2008 5:38pm
Quoting cobraforex
My analysis homework this week is:...

My overall scalping direction for the moment will be long because of strong reversal patterns on higher timeframes, until I see that it gets reversed again on whatever reason.

Happy trading and a nice weekend to all of you.
You may very well be correct but until I see something on the charts to convince me otherwise, I will be Bearish to a test of ~1.3750. Perhaps within the next couple of weeks.

Not to mention 1.36xx is on the radar.
  • #29,916
  • Sep 13, 2008 5:47pm Sep 13, 2008 5:47pm
Quoting Bemac
You may very well be correct but until I see something on the charts to convince me otherwise, I will be Bearish to a test of ~1.3750. Perhaps within the next couple of weeks.

Not to mention 1.36xx is on the radar.
Hi Bemac
I will give one more shot:
I posted 29.08.08 this:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=25692
together with this chart. If we draw the fibs on the way I do we touched 61.8 fib.
Please let me know what you think about it.
Thanks in advance
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekEUR.jpg Size: 51 KB
  • #29,917
  • Sep 13, 2008 6:38pm Sep 13, 2008 6:38pm
Quoting cobraforex
Hi Bemac
I will give one more shot:
I posted 29.08.08 this:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=25692
together with this chart. If we draw the fibs on the way I do we touched 61.8 fib.
Please let me know what you think about it.
Thanks in advance
I will try to keep this simple.
Looking Back @ Historical Horizontal Fibs I'm sure you have noticed there is usually congestion around the 50% mark. As a matter of fact, it usually generates a Horizontal Channel.

So... Horizontal Channel Represents 50% of the Move. Whether it be Historical OR Current.

You Highlighted the Channel but considered it as 100%. {or 0%. no matter for this post} This is where our methods differ.

I consider Horiz Channels Potential Indication of 50% of the Projected Move.

It's up to you but I would strongly suggest you read this post as many times as it takes to Understand It. This is Foresight & with a little additional stuff incorporated, it will also be Timing sensitive.

Outside The Box Thinking {bruce lee & whatever else...} is not everyones cup of tea but it works for me.
  • #29,918
  • Sep 13, 2008 6:43pm Sep 13, 2008 6:43pm
Have a great weekend. Next week may be a bit interesting.
  • #29,919
  • Edited 7:10pm Sep 13, 2008 6:59pm | Edited 7:10pm
Quoting cobraforex
Hi Bemac
I will give one more shot:
I posted 29.08.08 this:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=25692
together with this chart. If we draw the fibs on the way I do we touched 61.8 fib.
Please let me know what you think about it.
Thanks in advance
I would personally prefer to start drawing the fibs at the bottom of the uptrend, starting on the week of november 13, 2005 = besides, a cycle of exactly three years.

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f2...weeksept-1.gif

Thus, we would be at 50% (good point for a reversal nonetheless) and there is still room to finish the reversal from the top with a right shoulder and then bounce up. I don't think it would go all the way to the 61.8% but I think it could go test the SMA200 and try to break the bottom, which is also the Lower Trendline of the three-year continuous uptrend.

Looking for similar patterns:

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f2...e/weekzoom.gif
  • #29,920
  • Sep 13, 2008 9:08pm Sep 13, 2008 9:08pm
I have a question and after all this time, I should already know the answer.

What do the "weekend" rates on the majors have to do with reality ?
Are these prices for real ?

It is midnight eastern on a Saturday nite and there is not an active market open
anywhere on the map, except people making their own market for private transactions.

The euro is down around 80 pips in this "aftermarket". How do you folks think this will affect
the opening trades in a few hours? I've seen this before and sometimes it just
reverts back to Friday's close by Sunday afternoon and sometimes it runs away.

Lately, it's been unpredictable. No volume = wide spreads, but the spread is 2 pips.
So it's not the spread it's the actual price: bid at 1.4144 and offered @ 1.4146

Anybody have any input ??
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