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  • #29,881
  • Sep 12, 2008 10:41pm Sep 12, 2008 10:41pm
Uptrend !

EUR/USD on Close 09/12
http://i523.photobucket.com/albums/w.../EUR1209_1.png

Candle: Bullish Morning star and Signal confirm Uptrend.
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  • #29,882
  • Sep 12, 2008 11:06pm Sep 12, 2008 11:06pm
Many thought there was an uptrend beginning around August 30th and again on September 8th. Both looked like very compelling reversals that eventually became trend continuations down.

Still too early to call. I think some test longs may be okay, this does seem to be a good place for a bottom, but so did the other dates.

I'd be very cautious.
People have been trying to pick a bottom for quite some time.

We might have some more up, but put SL's below all areas of previous support and don't be afraid to TP prior to areas of resistance.

Jim
  • #29,883
  • Sep 13, 2008 12:29am Sep 13, 2008 12:29am
Quoting Foreyes
Hey psiholog,

You draw your Fibs in layers just like I do.
'My chart is lined up just like yours. Its comforting to see agreement in the way others draw their fibs.

I don't know what happens at the 61. My bias is still short so I may try a short at .4231 with a tight stop at 4241 only if it bounces around up there for a while. I'd Like to see a descending triangle formation.
There is a good bit of momentum with this move. If it breaks up, my next short target would be around .4296-300. .4300 is a "sweet spot so it may touch there for another good short opp. Again with a tight stop above.

I don'think it will reach the 100 at .4424. I think it will have to go down to the 38 fib first. If it does reach 4424, I will reassess and possibly go long.

Perhaps the storm in the Gulf and Chavez comments fueled this rally.
Hope no loss of life or significant rig damage. After the weekend we'll have some clues

I still think down. This move has been too dramatic to turn on a dime.

GL

Jim
i think you are looking too small pics of this rebound.

Euro has potential to go another 200pips.remeber it already sliped 2000pips,a correction of 600-700pips is still reasonable.

If you plan to short on 14230 area, remeber to take profit quickly as it's maybe a Retracement of uptrend.
  • #29,884
  • Sep 13, 2008 12:43am Sep 13, 2008 12:43am
wait next week to trade

candle touch both trendline up and down

let see next week

See my CHART

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3917; (P) 1.3959; (R1) 1.4037;
EUR/USD recovers after being supported at 1.3881, slightly above key medium term support at 1.3851 (50% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.6038 at 1.3839). Touching of 1.4093, with 4 hours MACD staying above signal line indicates that an intraday low is in place. Outlook is turned neutral for the moment. More recovery could be seen towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.4244). But consolidation should be relatively brief as long as 1.4428 resistance holds. Break of 1.3851 will target 1.3360 support.
However, note bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI, further break of 1.4428 will indicate that a short term bottom is finally formed. In such case, much stronger rebound should be seen to correct the whole fall from 1.6038 and should send EUR/USD to 1.4908 resistance or above.
In the bigger picture, as mentioned before, the double top reversal pattern (1.6019, 1.6038) serves as an important signal of completion of medium term rise from 1.1639 (05 low). Last week's break of key support level of 1.4309, (38.2% retracement of 1.1639 (05 low) to 1.6038 at 1.4358, 61.8% retracement of 1.3262 to 1.6038 at 1.4322) and medium term trend line support (1.1825, 1.2483, now at 1.4408) further support this view. Weekly MACD turned negative too. Much deeper medium term fall is now expected to support zone of 1.1639 and 1.3668. On the upside, while some rebound could be seen, sustained break of double top neckline resistance at 1.5284 is needed before considering that decline from 1.6038 has completely finished. Otherwise, another fall is still expected even in case of strong rebound.
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  • #29,885
  • Sep 13, 2008 12:50am Sep 13, 2008 12:50am
Price action on the 4-hour chart of EUR/USD, as shown, has progressively formed a parallel downtrend channel within the past couple of weeks. This channel has several touches on both sides, and as of Friday noon (New York session), price has reached resistance at the top of the channel once again. This represents a rather significant correction within the context of the current overall downtrend. Any continuation of this correction via a strong breakout with a close above this channel could eventually target further resistance up around the 1.4400 region. A bounce back down at or near the downtrend channel resistance, on the other hand, should bring price back down to the 1.4000 psychological region, perhaps then targeting the bottom of the channel once again.

note : In daily chart EU in strong downtrend
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  • #29,886
  • Sep 13, 2008 1:16am Sep 13, 2008 1:16am
what do u think
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  • #29,887
  • Edited 3:22am Sep 13, 2008 1:39am | Edited 3:22am
after further study of this weeks close this is what i have come up with. note that all my trendlines are based on 4hour bar charts as they provide the most clear picture(just my opinion). fibs are for this week only.
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the latest uptrend was in a channel with the upper trendline possibly acting as support now as it was broken just before the close. the 61.8 fib remain intact though which suggests this break up of channel may be a falsie. also note that the longer term downtrend upper wall may be acting as support as well. this leads me to 2 conclusions.
1)if 61.8% fib is broken we may see a move up to 1.4385 quite fast. note that 1.4315 may act as a resistance based on the fact it acted as a support/resistance before and after the gap and 1.4350 is a psychological level. Also fib resistances are encountered on all 4 longer timeframes in the 1.4350/450 area as shown on my previous chart
2)if 61.8% is acting as strong resistance and this break of the most recent uptrend upper waller was a falsie, it may retest the lower wall assuming the longer term downtrend upper wall is not solidified yet as a support(my line may be a bit off). a break below the longer term downtrend upper wall as well as the lower wall of this most recent uptrend would suggest the shorts are back in control with more room to the downside.

It will be very interesting to see where the market opens sunday

Sidenote: Hurricane Ike is intense!...been watching all day and may push oil higher. I hope the damage wont be too bad (doesn't look good at all) and everyone comes out ok
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #29,888
  • Sep 13, 2008 2:26am Sep 13, 2008 2:26am
I think EUR will drop as fast as it went up on Sunday or next week. Whole storm might be just too much hype as Gustav was, hopefully just some minor flooding. Overall, the trend is down and i do not see any reason why it should reverse right now, for now.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #29,889
  • Sep 13, 2008 3:21am Sep 13, 2008 3:21am
Quoting toshi
I'm afraid I'm a little confused. The 131 & 135 doesn't make sense to me yet.
How do we move UP to 138 from here ?
whoa thank you!!!...my bad those are supposed to be 4s..hahhaha...thank you again


There fixed..you can remove the quote if you wish now...as its providing bad numbers
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #29,890
  • Sep 13, 2008 3:33am Sep 13, 2008 3:33am
Quoting acumen
Apparently a pin bar... whatever that is.
To be honest I don't believe they represent anything either. But the market is all about psychology and this kind of visual signal that is widely recognized (some might call it reverse hammer as someone already stated) at the point where there are other long term signals like very long term trendline, fibos and many more - people are really good at finding more signals if they want - I'm sure many oscillators state oversold at the moment and so on.

But the main point that I find this is that if all the technical signals are in line plus there is a fundamental news coming out that says US is in deep trouble . much more than "experts" estimated - there is no reason for the trend to continue than the trend itself. Also if you look at employment numbers, euro zone is in plus territory while us is in minus. This is a hugely important fact.

Last days show that the trend looks like it's at least making a rebound and at these volatility levels (look monthly ATR for example) even a rebound will be very big. Hammers and such are only confirmation signals for the fundamentals and tell what big boys are doing because we little retail traders can certainly not move the market from 39XX to 42XX as now happened in one day.

But as I said, I have been very bad at picking bottoms so I'm just speculating here, I'm about 150-200 pips plus friday from two trades so I don't complain.
  • #29,891
  • Sep 13, 2008 3:46am Sep 13, 2008 3:46am
Quoting riskyachtar
Price action on the 4-hour chart of EUR/USD, as shown, has progressively formed a parallel downtrend channel within the past couple of weeks. This channel has several touches on both sides, and as of Friday noon (New York session), price has reached resistance at the top of the channel once again. This represents a rather significant correction within the context of the current overall downtrend. Any continuation of this correction via a strong breakout with a close above this channel could eventually target further resistance up around the 1.4400 region. A bounce back down at or near the downtrend channel resistance, on the other hand, should bring price back down to the 1.4000 psychological region, perhaps then targeting the bottom of the channel once again.

note : In daily chart EU in strong downtrend
This is the view I choose to support

And yeah, Friday is known for doing the opposite of what the rest of the week does.
Do you think the karate kid knows kung-fu?
  • #29,892
  • Sep 13, 2008 4:43am Sep 13, 2008 4:43am
Quoting riskyachtar
Price action on the 4-hour chart of EUR/USD, as shown, has progressively formed a parallel downtrend channel within the past couple of weeks.
JESUS CHRIST! I can not believe this. Yet again another chart from this Accu-something service that has nothing to do with reality. Whoever makes this crap ?? They draw trendlines that miss their marks by 100s of pips again and again. Dude, get a clue, that channel is clearly broken and that chart of yours is not updated at all, price reached 50 pips higher at market close than what it shows on that chart. It's not that hard to draw a few trendlines yourself and see, btw the parallel lower trendline was also penetrated though not clearly broken from below.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #29,893
  • Sep 13, 2008 5:47am Sep 13, 2008 5:47am
I would like to mention something that Jurrasic has brought to my attention. For those who use IBFX (like myself) the platform closes one hour before the market does and opens one hour on Sunday after the market opens. This means there will always be 2 hours of trading (pips) not included from close to open. That is ok though because those few pips do not change anything and the overall support/resistance/trend lines and fibonnaci still apply. If anything I find it an advantage to not impulsively enter the market too early on Sundays before a clear trend/breakout is visible. Personally I have a 2 hour rule, 3 if you include the market open on sundays of DO NOT TRADE. This watching patiently time is to make certain IBFX catches up on any activity not noted...plus who wants 5+pip spreads right? Just my 2 cents hope it helped someone out there.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #29,894
  • Sep 13, 2008 5:51am Sep 13, 2008 5:51am
lol I don't trade Sunday evening and Monday until London open at all. Unless there's a rare large gap, and then I may consider it. Plus, Oanda has a widened 10 pip spread until close before London open anyway, which for my trade ranges makes it practicly impossible.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #29,895
  • Sep 13, 2008 5:56am Sep 13, 2008 5:56am
EURUSD break down channel, and start forming up channel which also break up and now is forming next stronger up channel, but inside this channel is forming wedge. Also there are two important Fibs in this area, so this could be rising wedge which usually reverse the trend, and also some Doji candles. If next H1 close below 50% of last big up candle then EURUSD should go down to broken up channel.
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  • #29,896
  • Edited 6:52am Sep 13, 2008 6:42am | Edited 6:52am
i hope you guys try not trade against the trend
and put in your mind the fundamental aspect too.

here is my chart describe trend direction as everyone know the trend are down big time.

between you and me i ask myself sometimes why most of you guys trade against the trend , i hope you are not enjoy losses...( just kidding with you respectful traders).
i posted here the daily and weekly chart and we all know how the weekly chart is powerful to anticipate the trend direction.
and as you see no sign of trend reversal all my charts screming (SHORT) from time ago.
& every time a retrace happen the price fall again like a rock.
so only to be in the safe side i have to trade with the trend .
and i posted many times here to warn my fellow traders about trend direction, & i hope partners i did my part by good way.

the red arrows in my posts describe my last targets as a call for you partners.

oh by the way i hope you all enjoy your weekend lol !!!!!!
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  • #29,897
  • Sep 13, 2008 7:21am Sep 13, 2008 7:21am
I agree that there will be an attempt, maybe even more than one, to make a new low weather this is just a small retracement or a reversal at least till high 1.4s. Price doesn't just turn around and go the other way, especially on such a strong trend.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #29,898
  • Sep 13, 2008 8:44am Sep 13, 2008 8:44am
Quote
hope you guys try not trade against the trend
and put in your mind the fundamental aspect too.

here is my chart describe trend direction as everyone know the trend are down big time.

between you and me i ask myself sometimes why most of you guys trade against the trend , i hope you are not enjoy losses...( just kidding with you respectful traders).
i posted here the daily and weekly chart and we all know how the weekly chart is powerful to anticipate the trend direction.
and as you see no sign of trend reversal all my charts screming (SHORT) from time ago.
& every time a retrace happen the price fall again like a rock.
so only to be in the safe side i have to trade with the trend .
and i posted many times here to warn my fellow traders about trend direction, & i hope partners i did my part by good way.

the red arrows in my posts describe my last targets as a call for you partners.

oh by the way i hope you all enjoy your weekend lol !!!!!!

Just seen ur chart and discovered that we have something in common in our chart except that some TL are missing on yours.

people dwell so much on fundies, really goo but i have learnt to trade wot i see on my chart.

The weekly chart is the determining factor for the trend, but am a bit worry for eurusd in next weeks to come, if the hammer fails then price will surely hit the outer longterm TL but if the TL holds, with PA around 50%, we might see rally up.

But for now, we might see rally up to the TL region and if the TL holds eurusd will move to 1.33?? arena but if the TL resistance fails then EURUSD will surge high for reversal.

i keep my hand cross but 200pips move up for euro is certain
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  • #29,899
  • Sep 13, 2008 9:25am Sep 13, 2008 9:25am
is this setting up for a gap down on Sunday or just normal weekend flux.

This is why many traders dont hold over the weekend(unless you up already 100+pips) or take new positions on friday.

1.4144 shown here:
http://forex.tradingcharts.com/quotes/
  • #29,900
  • Sep 13, 2008 9:49am Sep 13, 2008 9:49am
Oanda shows no gaps, price stays 4229.5
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