Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line)

JustCatalin, how did you break the rules. Did I break the rules too?

Clay

What i mean by break the rules i say about cant post any website link or something like that....maybe admin think we promote median line website.
Anyway this week we catch more than 500 pips with median line on my new blog.
Also look at eur/usd chart very nice turn at center median line (A&R line based on center line)
Regards
Catalin

here is the update of eur/usd daily chart
Regards
Catalin

Now I understand Catalin. I don't promote any site, not even this one, even thought I personally believe that FF is a truly phenomenal site with tons of info.

By the way, looks like my "projection" was not only wrong but very wrong. Price in eur/usd is now around 1.4213 or so. About 200 pips above the long terms S/R level from 2007.

Just goes to show how much more I need to study these things and get a handle on them.

Clay

FYI, four Monthly EURUSD charts with medianline sets (pitchforks), and parallels (both 50% and 100%). (I don't usually follow the EU pair, and I didn't draw these until today, after the recent bounce, but obviously these have been in play since Pt 3 from Dec 2005).

The 1st is the Schiff 50% Price (only). (This is the official historical name, but most people/tools refer to this as a "Modified Schiff").

To me this is resonating quite well with both past and future price. The recent price action bounced just a very few pips above the Schiff medianline.

The 2nd is the Modified Schiff 50%/50% of Price & Time (This is the official historical name but most people/tools refer to this as a "Schiff"). Recent price bounced off what would probably be a 75% parallel and closed today at around the 50% parallel (below the MS medianline).

The 3rd is a "PR3" Variant (Price of Pt 3, Time of Pt 1). Interesting... Recent bounce was just over a 50% parallel above the PR3 medianline.

The 4th is a "PR2" Variant (Price of Pt 2, Time of Pt 1). Also interesting... Several parallels appear to resonate, including the market peak.

All that derived from one original Andrews PF...

For official name definitions, read the post here:
In the pictures below:
Andrews = Yellow
Schiff (50% Price)= Silver
ModSchiff (50/50 Price & Time) = Magenta
PR3 (Price Pt3, Time Pt 1) = Aqua
PR2 (Price Pt2, Time Pt 1) = Green

Pips4life

Yep, and I missed that really long term fork, and probably part of why my last "projection" of price was totally backward from what actually happened. According to Andrew's Theory, the next level for price to test will be a retest of the lonterm lower median line (3 yellow in first image) and probably at the entersection of the yellow and green in image 3, possibly as high as the intersection in 4 (next white and yellow crossing up).

If it indeed does retest that line, and fail, then the recent downtrend is still intact with a target at the next lower crosses near term and the next median line longer term. If it retests and continues up, then this "retrace" has probably bottomed and the longterm uptrend will have resumed.

Just my reading of the charts and Andrew's theory.

By the way, great charting Pips4life!

Clay

Just a note to anyone interested in watching a fairly basic introduction to (or revision of) APF's, energy points, and how Tim Morge approaches trading go to the 'moneyshow' website, register for free and watch Tim's 100 min video. I recommend it. PM me if you want more help finding it.

any uj shorts here?...trend seems too strong to short even though the forks give the signal.

Although I catch myself thinking "bounce" all the time, it is well to remember that medianlines are not just for reversals. They might be thought of as price magnets, and price is likely to "react" more strongly at the medianlines, where "react" is often a bounce, but sometimes when price breaks through, it is often accelerated, perhaps because of... most likely... all the covering of positions taken by those assuming it would bounce.

DIE UJ!! god damn-t

Pips is exactly correct. The strategy, according to the Andrews material I have been able to find is that one should be able to always be in a position. then at the lines one should tighten the stops expecting a bounce, assuming that they are already in a position. If the bounce occurs, then they are out with a profit looking for the next entery, which should be at a retest of that bounce, or a zoom through the line.

The attached chart looks a little cluttered as I am experimenting with combining a couple of "trend" strategies with using the lines to predict entries and exits.

By way of explanation, the thread here on FF about the 2550 method, (thank you effi) accounts for two of the MA's (25 and 50) which I use to help in determining the trend "in the time frame" I am looking at (especially helpful in 1 minute and 5 minute charts).

The 5 and 12 ma's and the arrow indicator are thanks to the Bagovino method for short term entries (I enter on the 1 minute chart currently). and the ICWR fib you see on the chart is part of the ICWR strategy to assist in staying "in" a good trade longer. The blue and red arrows are from the bagovino indicator, and the rest only indicate the direction of an Andrews line in the chart.

Won't go into it all but you can certainly read the threads for yourself, I did.

2550 thread - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=46048
Bagovino thread - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=7603
ICWR thread - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=4576 (PDF is at this link for download free. http://www.forexboost.com/free-ebook...g_Strategy.pdf) (Hope that last one doesn't violate some rules and please forgive the infraction if it does. I couldn't upload the .pdf as it is over 2 megs even zipped.)

And lastly, I modified a Gann based ICWR indicator so I could see exatly where the top 25% and lower 25% ranges (break out alert areas) and the 50% FIB level are. The 50% fib importance is from Jacko's House of pleasure and pain on FF as well. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=4576

SO, what has all this done for me? Well, being able to find the trend quickly helps a lot, not having to think about it on a shorter time frame like M1 when I look for an entery is wonderful. Helps filter out a lot of the bad trades from the 5/12 bagovino and the 2550 strategies, although on the M1, it is quite possible to have a very short term counter trend, which ICWR helps me determine.

What I am looking to gain is entry to the longer moves of 40 + pips, or at least to get out of a 10 pip move with some profits and to increase the percentage of winning trades above 60%.

Attached are two images, one a very zoomed M1 chart where you can clearly see intersecting lines draw on the much higher time frames to help me find those areas of "zoom through" or bounce from Andrew's lines. As you can see, the price action follows the lower ones (H1) amazingly well, as well as literally "walking down" a D1 line (D1 (2)) and you can see the "zoom through" at D1(4) (also an intersection of an "energy point" atH1(4)), D1(3), and D1(2) very clearly.

A really interesting area is in the oval, where price literally flatlined and went straight through an intersection of two H1 lines. Shortly after this image was captured and modified for all this commentary, price zoomed up through the H1 immediatly above price, made it almost to the W1 (3) line, bounced there and zoomed back down through that same H1 line to that same area of "flat line" just above D1 (5).

I have also attached the actual trades log as an image for you to all look at and see what I am saying is correct about percentage of trade successes. The image is three days of "live" demo trading to test this combination of strategies. The first day, is from testing other things, which resulted in an overall loss, the second two days, (18th and 19th) over came all those losses, and all the losses from this test and posted an overal gain of $360.00 in a rougly $6000.00 demo account, about 5.9 % gain in two days of trading. (account balance currenly of 6442.12, less the 360.00 gain for a beginning balance of 6082.12. then divide the gain by the balance: 360.00 divided by 6082.12, results in the % of gain/loss for the period.) All trading was done with one standard lot, minimal stop losses (except for the first day where I was using trailing stops beginning at 50 pips and had to leave the computer for a bit where a couple of them actually hit my SL, which I never allow if possible).

As for the trading accuracy results:

For all three days, 9 losing trades/ 14 winning trades, 2 BE trades. Total win ration for all three days, 60.86% if you don't coun't the 2 BE trades as a success, and 64% success if you count the BE trades for all three days. (any non- loss is a success in my book.)

If you count only the two days I started using this mix of strategies the success rate is much better. There is however only one BE trade during that time period.

The results are as follows:
6 losing trades to 13 wining trades, including the BE trade. 12 without it. So the win lose ratio is 68.4% success with it and 66.6% without it. Either way, its a pretty good win/loss ratio.

Andrews lines appear to be extremly accurate and I believe if learned and used with a good entry point strategy, and some strategy to help one "stay in" the good trades, you would have a complete and very successful strategy.

One last comment, it seems to now be "captured" in a narrowing band between the W1 (3) and D1 (5) Andrew's lines.

Ok,,, off to bed now, and that's my 2 cents for the week/month.

Clay

Hi all,

Anyone got any recommendations on the best PitchFork books to read? Tim Morges book is a tad expensive but if it is worth it, I will gladly purchase a copy. Any other books you recommend would be much appreciated.

Thanks.

Greg Fisher's doctoral thesis is good, as is Patrick Mikula's 'The 5 Best Trendline Techniques of Alan Andrews'. I have not had the pleasure of reading Tim Morge's books, but I have found some of his presentations at various websites and found them to be revealing. Check out www.medianline.com and www.marketgeometry.com for more of Tim's resources. There's a fair amount of info (including the original Andrews course) out there for free if you know where to look.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Morge does the best job of anyone (and I've read everything) in showing how to get in and out of PF trades. The book is really not expensive if you're going to use PFs.

As mentioned, his site has lots of stuff as he's always posting things, but I suggest you get his book.

i suggest you hold of on his book for a while because he has a brand new one to be released very soon which will be much better than the first

Have many people have done any of Tim Morge's courses? I have considered it, he is the most knowledgeable living source on median lines after all. I just wonder how much of what he teaches is not already available online for those who have the gumption to find it (and in some cases decipher it). It's none too cheap either. I'd love to hear from anyone who has taken it up.

Who here have ebook (PRICE NEAR MEDIAN LINE WHAT THE PROBABILITY) because i want to buy pls email me at [email protected] for discussion

Looks like a dead thread. No more "forkers" around or what?

Tim Morge is the master in regards to Medialines and there uses. I have the book, taken the course and have picked at his website. For starters I would recommend going through the archives in medianline.com, buying the book, and then, if you feel it's right for, you take the course. He holds the Basic course and you can sit in on it countless of times(for free), once you have paid the initial fee. He will be holding an advanced course some time in the new year which will be only for those who have taken the basic course. There are many examples on this website and marketgeometry.com.

The best way to learn is draw and redraw as many medianlines as you can

Cheers

nik

Hi all,

GBP hourly (interbankfx data feed), there are some good setup in the past couple days..i got 3 setup that already meet the tp and now the 4th signal still on the way.as i type, the price already 100 pips run from my starting point.Hope u guys notice that too.