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  • #29,561
  • Sep 11, 2008 5:45pm Sep 11, 2008 5:45pm
Quoting Bemac
In Plain English:

1.405x within 6 hours from Time Stamp of this Post.

Re-assess @ that point.
HTH
Thanks Bemac, could you give the reason for that call so that we will learn how to trigger good entries.
I imagin what it is, only to be shure.

BTW, my trading room is closed for this week, it's not good to be greedy
  • #29,562
  • Sep 11, 2008 5:55pm Sep 11, 2008 5:55pm
guys which way are we going in the short term 1-2 hrs?
  • #29,563
  • Sep 11, 2008 6:32pm Sep 11, 2008 6:32pm
Quoting cobraforex
Thanks Bemac, could you give the reason for that call so that we will learn how to trigger good entries.
I imagin what it is, only to be shure.
Probably a little too much Instinct & TA invoved that may asway the Thread to explain.

Quoting cobraforex
BTW, my trading room is closed for this week, it's not good to be greedy
Cool:
When I was training Live Traders, {No such thing as Demo back then} I gave them a +/- $300.00 Limit. Hit $300.00 and you are done for the day.
Positive 300 = Go Home.
Negative 300 = Stop Trading & Study More.

I don't mean to be clandestine, Just real. I hope you understand.

Since I posted the 1.405x I see some bulls folding. 1.400X may be the high BUT: I still can see a 0.0050 Noise factor to accomodate a clean Trade. By that I mean you still be offered an opportunity to Short in the 1.405x range but don't let the Trade slip away. If You're In, Get In.

ieShort @ 1.4xx with TP around 1.385x.
HTH
  • #29,564
  • Sep 11, 2008 6:48pm Sep 11, 2008 6:48pm
I bet tonnes of pepole just got stoped out 1.4200 is my target
Trade less make more!
  • #29,565
  • Edited 10:20pm Sep 11, 2008 6:56pm | Edited 10:20pm
Quoting Bemac
In Plain English:

1.405x +/- within 6 hours from Time Stamp of this Post.

Re-assess @ that point.
Possibly looking for Fall to 1.3880?
Or Rise to 1.42XX
Don't know yet.
HTH
NY Desks call Friday... follow through Friday.

Why do you think that is?

Historically - when the week trends in one direction there's a 75% chance it will continue in that direction.

Trading is about probabilities.

Now - I'm not recommending anyone take a position based on this but it's good to know.
  • #29,566
  • Sep 11, 2008 7:00pm Sep 11, 2008 7:00pm
my worst fears have been confirmed...a green daily candlestick....just woke up to see my position from 1.3897 took profit at 1.4015.....not bad not bad
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #29,567
  • Sep 11, 2008 7:20pm Sep 11, 2008 7:20pm
i have a question. so like a lot of people i guess, i started trading my first real account and got hammered through a combination of impatience and greed. that stuff i can fix but my question is...

im trading with a micro account with 25 bucks. and i know people always tell n00bs to trade on daily charts. but i realized that the swings in daily prices are too large for me to handle. so my alternative is tightly monitoring 30 minute charts and going from there.

i'm not sure if wat im doing is correct. any suggestions?
  • #29,568
  • Sep 11, 2008 7:34pm Sep 11, 2008 7:34pm
Quoting ballblazer_!
i have a question. so like a lot of people i guess, i started trading my first real account and got hammered through a combination of impatience and greed. that stuff i can fix but my question is...

im trading with a micro account with 25 bucks. and i know people always tell n00bs to trade on daily charts. but i realized that the swings in daily prices are too large for me to handle. so my alternative is tightly monitoring 30 minute charts and going from there.

i'm not sure if wat im doing is correct. any suggestions?
1)identify what kind of trader you are
2)develop a strategy based on your trading personality
3)use time frames that apply to your trading methodology

As an example heres what i do. I notice trends/channels/patterns/support/resistance. I may decide to scalp a trend, buy at low sell at high...i use 5min/1min charts. I may wait for a breakout for a larger trade...I check weekly fibonacci on hourly chart, followed by daily fibonnaci on 15min chart followed by last real move up/down on 5min chart, followed by a breakout watch on 1min chart.

Thats just me though...it gets complicated...do what works for you

Edit:an even better example is now. were hanging at the highs for the day...fibs from the start of the last upwards push that took us above 1.4000 has 23%fib retracement at 1.4014 acting as support, this weeks fib retracement is having 23.6% acting as support as well. This is strong indication for me of a new higher high..however i find it risky right now to enter a trade. Id rather wait for a breakout above the current high of 1.4040 or a retracement to 61.8%fib which is 1.3970. considering 1.3975 was a huge breakup point...id buy in the 1.3975/85 area but has to be between 50% fib and 61.8fib
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #29,569
  • Sep 11, 2008 7:36pm Sep 11, 2008 7:36pm
Quoting psiholog
1)identify what kind of trader you are
2)develop a strategy based on your trading personality
3)use time frames that apply to your trading methodology

As an example heres what i do. I notice trends/channels/patterns/support/resistance. I may decide to scalp a trend, buy at low sell at high...i use 5min/1min charts. I may wait for a breakout for a larger trade...I check weekly fibonacci on hourly chart, followed by daily fibonnaci on 15min chart followed by last real move up/down on 5min chart, followed by a breakout watch on 1min chart.

Thats just me though...it gets complicated...do what works for you
generally speaking whats a good stop loss area? like how do i know when im wrong as opposed to normal market volatility but ultimately heading in my direction?
  • #29,570
  • Sep 11, 2008 7:45pm Sep 11, 2008 7:45pm
Quoting ballblazer_!
generally speaking whats a good stop loss area? like how do i know when im wrong as opposed to normal market volatility but ultimately heading in my direction?
thats a question of money management, risk reward ratio...read some of the posts in this thread for the past few days they explain this well...most people use 20-40 pip stop loss, some 10 or 15....lets take my example ....i will buy in the area i mentioned..lets say its at 61.8% fib retracement for last move up...i know it can go lower, spikes are common...my stop loss is 20pips. if i was wrong, 20 pips is more than enough to prove it, just a part of trading
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #29,571
  • Sep 11, 2008 7:47pm Sep 11, 2008 7:47pm
Quoting ballblazer_!
generally speaking whats a good stop loss area? like how do i know when im wrong as opposed to normal market volatility but ultimately heading in my direction?
the market is not related to your position hence a correct stop loss point cant be told according to your position but rather to technical levels, stop losses should be above a resistance for short (sell) orders and below support for long (buy) orders, but if you were in a position somewhere between a support and a resistance then it gonna be somehow gambling and this denys you from being able to determine the correct s/l, 20 pips are enough for cable and fiber (gbpusd and eurusd) where gbpjpy needs more, hope you find this useful
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #29,572
  • Sep 11, 2008 7:51pm Sep 11, 2008 7:51pm
Quoting acumen
NY Desks call Friday... follow through Friday.

Why do you think that is?

Historically - when the week trends in one direction there's a 75% chance it will continue in that direction.

Trading is about probabilities.

Now - I'm not recommending anyone taking a position based on this but it's good to know.
Not sure &, at this point, really don't care.
I Ignore News while observing Triple Witching.
This probably puts me in the catagory of 80% TA: 20% FA;

Funny how FA Runs Price to TA aint it? ...

Bemac Style Sojourne:
If you could ask Bruce Lee
"Why did you decide that a Roundhouse would be best applied at that point in the conflict?"
do you realy think you would understand the Complex Answer; or would he be better saying,
"Because that was the best response to the situation."

Never Strike a Blow In Anger.
Always Strike in Cold Blood.
  • #29,573
  • Sep 11, 2008 7:57pm Sep 11, 2008 7:57pm
Sorry for the EJ chart, but too busy trading to get the EU chart up yet. Just know that it looks almost indentical to the EJ chart, so hopefully you'll get the picture. They're practically mirror images, just bigger moves on EJ.

Looks like a probable double top on 1 hr on both pairs at this point. Stiff Resistance levels hit at the same time on both pairs, with same results... Unless it rallies back thru those levels, I'm thinking it's a failed attempt to go higher at this time, what Bemac said about longs folding... probably right, and he caught it before I did... that's what made me do a double take myself.

So double 's to you Bemac.

I longed both of them up, and now I'm short both of them from 1.4024, EU and 150.45 EJ down to the 1hr TL's for starters (not on chart, have to draw your own). Counting a GY trade that's doing the same thing, that over 100 pips total on 3 trades since it failed and counting.

This could be a very hinky night... If so, then when I close these 3 out, I'm done. I learned the very hard way to quit when I get that funny feeling on the back of my neck...

I'll get an EU chart up in a bit if I can.

PS BOLD RED lines on chart are targets if TL breaks.. ignore for now.
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #29,574
  • Sep 11, 2008 8:02pm Sep 11, 2008 8:02pm
Quoting ballblazer_!
i have a question. so like a lot of people i guess, i started trading my first real account and got hammered through a combination of impatience and greed. that stuff i can fix but my question is...

im trading with a micro account with 25 bucks. and i know people always tell n00bs to trade on daily charts. but i realized that the swings in daily prices are too large for me to handle. so my alternative is tightly monitoring 30 minute charts and going from there.

i'm not sure if wat im doing is correct. any suggestions?
The first thing is to recognise the market conditions.
This comes from a little more time in the game.
The current conditions have been very volatile, therefore expect big swings.
Tight stops wont work.You will be cut to shreads.
Decrease your amount if you can and widen your stops to give yourself a chance.
If its too volatile stay out.Too many think they need to be in it all the time.
Some guys love volatility others prefer orderly.
Good luck and enjoy.
  • #29,575
  • Sep 11, 2008 8:12pm Sep 11, 2008 8:12pm
also blazer, there is something i saw someone do in here (forget who) that is a great tool. as we all know theres greater timeframe trends up/down, we just like to play within those trends. the trend in the past few weeks has been down. to determine the walls of this longer term down trend he looked at 4 hour chart "bars"...gives clear connecting points....thank you whoever showed me that

btw...bought a long at 1.3975 just now ...take profit at 1.4015 for now as i see this trending for a while....if im wrong...20 pip stop loss
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #29,576
  • Sep 11, 2008 8:26pm Sep 11, 2008 8:26pm
Quoting indotrader
somewhere near 4045 (was a support) is a good place to place short.. if it could go there
I missed my short... just woke up
Money often costs too much...
  • #29,577
  • Sep 11, 2008 8:34pm Sep 11, 2008 8:34pm
there is one other thing i would like to add......it really sucks i cant post pictures. anyways here goes. if you guys look at the 4 hour charts, the last bearish candlestick about 30 hours ago or so broke the lower wall of the downtrend that has been going on since 1.48. the yearly trendline upwards from the start of the move up at the end of 2005 created strong support just above 1.3900 area. all moves below it were spikes that could not hold up. the last 4hour bullish candlestick broke back inside the longer term downtrend decisively, and if it holds up, we may see 1.4200/40 in the near term (upper wall of longer term downtrend), which IS also 61.8fib retracement since the beggining of this week OR 38.2 since this whole recent downtrend started at 1.48
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #29,578
  • Sep 11, 2008 8:57pm Sep 11, 2008 8:57pm
Quoting psiholog
there is one other thing i would like to add......it really sucks i cant post pictures. anyways here goes. if you guys look at the 4 hour charts, the last bearish candlestick about 30 hours ago or so broke the lower wall of the downtrend that has been going on since 1.48. the yearly trendline upwards from the start of the move up at the end of 2005 created strong support just above 1.3900 area. all moves below it were spikes that could not hold up. the last 4hour bullish candlestick broke back inside the longer term downtrend decisively, and if it holds up, we may see 1.4200/40 in the near term (upper wall of longer term downtrend), which IS also 61.8fib retracement since the beggining of this week OR 38.2 since this whole recent downtrend started at 1.48
Why can't you post pictures?

You've been banned or something.

Mike
  • #29,579
  • Sep 11, 2008 9:04pm Sep 11, 2008 9:04pm
Quoting Bemac
Not sure &, at this point, really don't care.
I Ignore News while observing Triple Witching.
This probably puts me in the catagory of 80% TA: 20% FA;

Funny how FA Runs Price to TA aint it? ...

Bemac Style Sojourne:
If you could ask Bruce Lee
"Why did you decide that a Roundhouse would be best applied at that point in the conflict?"
do you realy think you would understand the Complex Answer; or would he be better saying,
"Because that was the best response to the situation."

Never Strike a Blow In Anger.
Always Strike in Cold Blood.
You don't have to be 'not sure' - I told you.

Secondly - We don't need to know what Bruce Lee would have done. Don't give a shit.

Ignore news at your own peril... sounds like a rookie statement.

You seem to be a very solid trader... If you can save us the obtuse jargon and stick to trading nomenclature we simple folks would appreciate it.
  • #29,580
  • Sep 11, 2008 9:07pm Sep 11, 2008 9:07pm
If you use 5:00pm EST for close of each trading day as I do, since I am in EST and it also represents a complete day from the Asian open, you will see the EU formed a PinBar on Thursday. And also the US$ index formed one as well.

Euro also reached minimum zone for completion of wave 5 of 5 on 4hr chart, so I believe a retracement should be underway if today's high 1.4040 gets taken out, which is currently resistance after previously being support.
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