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  • #21
  • Sep 11, 2008 6:26am Sep 11, 2008 6:26am
Quoting euclid
Good advice; although not very helpful if you can't tell who to trust. I wouldn't recommend listening to anybody on here. If you want information about brokers or programming, then fine but if you want to find and edge, Do Your Own Research.

By the way, my research indicates that the forex market is fractal which means that short timeframes and long timeframes are roughly equally predictable with intraday being a bit more predictable due to the daily volume cycle. But as I said, don't take my word for it - DYOR.
I like what your saying.
Chears

Leon
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #22
  • Sep 11, 2008 6:34am Sep 11, 2008 6:34am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
----Gann died broke----

Thankyou for taking the time to watch this news bullitin.

Leon
According to Public records, WD Gann left an estate at his death in excess of 5 Million Dollars. In 1955 Dollars. How much is that in todays dollars?

These were derived from brokerage statements and settlements to the IRS

Source -

Gann Simplified Copyright 2001 Published by Marketplace Books.
  • #23
  • Sep 11, 2008 6:58am Sep 11, 2008 6:58am
But guys, do you understand what I mean, just from a newbie perspective it is all gambling. There are so much theories out there. What works, RSI, macd, cci. But lets take one example: pivot points. Now, we all know what they are. S1, S2, S3 and R1, R2 etc. But how can I use them when every website on the internet displayes other numbers. See it for yourself!

http://www.forexproject.com/daily-pivot-points/
http://www.mataf.net/en/forex/tradin...ints/standard/
http://www.allpivotpoints.com/forex_pivot_points/#
http://www.global-view.com/forex-tra.../chartpts.html
http://www.actionforex.com/technical...-200603205734/
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/Members/...rex_pivots.php

Maarten
  • #24
  • Sep 11, 2008 10:43am Sep 11, 2008 10:43am
Quoting Maarten999
But guys, do you understand what I mean, just from a newbie perspective it is all gambling. There are so much theories out there. What works, RSI, macd, cci. But lets take one example: pivot points. Now, we all know what they are. S1, S2, S3 and R1, R2 etc. But how can I use them when every website on the internet displayes other numbers. See it for yourself!

http://www.forexproject.com/daily-pivot-points/
http://www.mataf.net/en/forex/tradin...ints/standard/
http://www.allpivotpoints.com/forex_pivot_points/#
http://www.global-view.com/forex-tra.../chartpts.html
http://www.actionforex.com/technical...-200603205734/
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/Members/...rex_pivots.php

Maarten
Completely agree. All that stuff is just gambling for a newbie.

Those are not the right tools to use to analyse forex data IMO. Any analysis that does not take into account the independent movement of the two currency components of a pair is flawed. I'm not saying it's impossible to make money using conventional TA/PA. It just isn't the best way. Poor tools plus inexperienced hands is a recipe for failure.
  • #25
  • Sep 11, 2008 4:15pm Sep 11, 2008 4:15pm
Quoting euclid
By the way, my research indicates that the forex market is fractal which means that short timeframes and long timeframes are roughly equally predictable with intraday being a bit more predictable due to the daily volume cycle. But as I said, don't take my word for it - DYOR.
Wow, and I thought everyone on FF thought lower time frames were noise I agree with this statement 1000% too many people waste time on higher timeframes with small money do what everyone else is not, big money on small timeframes just my .02
  • #26
  • Sep 11, 2008 5:28pm Sep 11, 2008 5:28pm
scalping huge lots without stops = blown account.

i am looking forward to watching how your future unfolds, fxRichard. you will either strike it rich (and hopefully get out while ahead) or go down with the ship...

i would prefer a success story.

Quoting fxRichard
Wow, and I thought everyone on FF thought lower time frames were noise I agree with this statement 1000% too many people waste time on higher timeframes with small money do what everyone else is not, big money on small timeframes just my .02
  • #27
  • Sep 11, 2008 9:23pm Sep 11, 2008 9:23pm
Quoting tdion
scalping huge lots without stops = blown account.

i am looking forward to watching how your future unfolds, fxRichard. you will either strike it rich (and hopefully get out while ahead) or go down with the ship...

i would prefer a success story.
I think richard does use stops, if not hard then mental, id hazard a guess that he certainly uses an emergency stop just incase of something crazy.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #28
  • Sep 11, 2008 9:39pm Sep 11, 2008 9:39pm
Quoting thatwasme
According to Public records, WD Gann left an estate at his death in excess of 5 Million Dollars. In 1955 Dollars. How much is that in todays dollars?

These were derived from brokerage statements and settlements to the IRS

Source -

Gann Simplified Copyright 2001 Published by Marketplace Books.
Oh really? Thats interesting.
Ill have a look around.

Leon

P.s. Ive just realised this is your 1st post yet youve been a member for 7months. Why did you break your silence over this?

Good trading, Leon
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #29
  • Sep 12, 2008 12:24am Sep 12, 2008 12:24am
Quoting fxRichard
Wow, and I thought everyone on FF thought lower time frames were noise I agree with this statement 1000% too many people waste time on higher timeframes with small money do what everyone else is not, big money on small timeframes just my .02
Hi..

I'm here just to say a few words on my point of view to the forex market. Once we understand the market with our own style of trading, there should be a way for us to make forex profitable. My experience is that filtering bad trades or staying away from bad market condition is the most difficult task. Doing your homework (print-out chart and do some technical analysis, read important news which could move the market, etc..) is also one of the major factor to get there besides MM, psychology and patience.
I have to agree by trading on higher timeframes are much better than those in smaller ones. I'd say 4hour timeframe is the smallest timeframe to stay away from noises.
My 2 cents

Hijackxx
  • #30
  • Sep 12, 2008 12:31am Sep 12, 2008 12:31am


Quoting hijackxx
filtering bad trades or staying away from bad market condition
  • #31
  • Sep 12, 2008 12:48am Sep 12, 2008 12:48am
I use Kreskin's pendulum to filter those bad trades and markets:nerd:
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #32
  • Sep 12, 2008 12:54am Sep 12, 2008 12:54am
i had never heard of that so here's what i came up with

http://www.gamepile.com/details.php?id=91

man, milton bradley board games really bring back nostalgia.... i must be getting old.
  • #33
  • Sep 12, 2008 1:04am Sep 12, 2008 1:04am
Quoting tdion
i had never heard of that so here's what i came up with

http://www.gamepile.com/details.php?id=91

man, milton bradley board games really bring back nostalgia.... i must be getting old.
That's the one
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #34
  • Sep 12, 2008 1:11am Sep 12, 2008 1:11am
Quoting johnedoe
I use Kreskin's pendulum to filter those bad trades and markets:nerd:
Wow..! you used it for live trading?? The game is classic
  • #35
  • Sep 12, 2008 1:38am Sep 12, 2008 1:38am
Hi Maarten,

The pivots I get from here:
http://www.actionforex.com/technical...603205734/#top
work pretty well. Also it's always better if price proves to you first that it's an s/r area, and then you can actually use it.

Indicators, they just follow price and show their own thing. A lot of it is unusable, but some is. For example, open an MACD and try to follow it through multiple market conditions, I gurantee you that you will notice certain things it'll show you with relatively good (above even) probability. If your view of pa and ta also confirms it then you got yourself a trade. Just make it 1:1 with sl behind the trend/move starting candle (previous one or two) and leave it be. Trade with the trend.

A lot of people make the mistake of not using proper r:r or trying to capture big moves and not profiting from the rest. This is related to most situations not just indicators. That is a mistake - if a strategy gives good win to loss - exploit that advantage and use 1:1 or close r:r and try not to touch the trades once set (unless there's news or really something strange). Touching upsets the odds. Trying to use a large r:r will often back-fire and you'll capture 1 large move and miss or take less on 10 small ones.

If you can trade intraday then do it. You can get one double top per year on a weekly chart or one per day on average on a 5m-15m (sometimes 1h) chart with just slightly lesser probability for the latter. The same goes for all other price patterns. Money management can easily be better because you make frequent trades while profit potential is much larger. Not to mention that by watching these tfs you will actually be able to learn because of the huge samples availible that you can repeatedly follow.

Plot your pivots, learn price action patterns, use an indicator or two that you calibrated well for yourself and WATCH WATCH WATCH price action. This way you will LEARN LEARN LEARN. Be patient. Step in with your 1:1 or better trades when you see good opportunities and try not to touch it.


Oh and, there's a poster with a bull in his avatar here, don't listen to him, all he does ever is whine and I doubt he ever actually finds time to trade beyond that, or knows how anyway..
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #36
  • Sep 12, 2008 2:08am Sep 12, 2008 2:08am
yeah don't listen to him.... he doesn't know what he's talking about

Quoting Jurrasic
Oh and, there's a poster with a bull in his avatar here, don't listen to him, all he does ever is whine and I doubt he ever actually finds time to trade beyond that, or knows how anyway..
  • #37
  • Sep 12, 2008 9:19am Sep 12, 2008 9:19am
Quoting hijackxx
Wow..! you used it for live trading?? The game is classic
Actually the pendulum is a method of comunicating with the sub conscience mind. remember the old saying let me sleep on it, then in the morning the answer generally reveals itself.....


Or was that a song by Meatloaf...
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #38
  • Oct 7, 2008 11:02am Oct 7, 2008 11:02am
UPDATE

So guys, I have been thinking alot lately about markets, economics etc. I am still not convinenced that trading forex can be profitable. There are many trading strategies out there. But I doubt that in the long term they will be profitable. Alot of them have been turned in EA, and when you backtest them then for years, they all blow up eventually.

So my conclusion is still the same. In fact, I challenge everyone who reads this topic to convince me that trading forex in the long run can be profitable again, again and again.

The only profitable strategy that I see is getting into the long term trading.

Maarten
  • #39
  • Oct 7, 2008 11:05am Oct 7, 2008 11:05am
Quoting Maarten999
In fact, I challenge everyone who reads this topic to convince me that trading forex in the long run can be profitable again, again and again.
Why should I care about you?
What do I gain from it? Nothing.
  • #40
  • Oct 7, 2008 11:09am Oct 7, 2008 11:09am
Quoting Tjpld
Why should I care about you?
What do I gain from it? Nothing.
If you have a profitable strategy which is profitable for years and years. What are you doing on this forum? Everyone is searching here for some kind of profitable strategy. If something doesn't work they change the strategy for another one. It doesn't work. Trading forex profitable in the short and mid term is just impossible. You loose money, break even or with a 1% change you make profit time after time after time.

Maarten

My point: indicators, fibs, rsi, macd, moving average etc its all b*llshit. It will never work in the long run.
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