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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #1,561
  • Sep 5, 2008 5:38am Sep 5, 2008 5:38am
Quoting BentRod
Meta,

The main move would be down untill it takes out the high.
Thanks BentRod, I guess it depends on the last sequence of the swings? (this is what I'm not sure)... because as the price is in the middle point, could we also say the main move would be up until it takes out the low?
  • #1,562
  • Sep 5, 2008 5:41am Sep 5, 2008 5:41am
Well the way I see it is if the MM is not down it has to be up.
  • #1,563
  • Sep 5, 2008 5:48am Sep 5, 2008 5:48am
Quoting BentRod
Well the way I see it is if the MM is not down it has to be up.
LOL..

Cheers
  • #1,564
  • Sep 5, 2008 7:21am Sep 5, 2008 7:21am
Quoting Igrok
There are some rules defining significance of divergences. They are quite complicated and with a lot of exceptions. Unfortunately I just can't explain the entire theory here and therefore have to consider them one by one and case by case.
Thank you for response, still could you share a little more. What is the first think or rule you are looking at, while analyzing divergencies?
thank you,
Vytas
  • #1,565
  • Sep 5, 2008 7:51am Sep 5, 2008 7:51am
Dvyt,
Have you read the thread?

Don't forget there is 105 pages of good info.

Personally, I have cut and pasted all the good bits, printed them out and read them often.

It's like a new book:nerd:
  • #1,566
  • Sep 5, 2008 4:12pm Sep 5, 2008 4:12pm
Hello Mr Igrok.

Could this been a little diamond on 1hr GBP/USD?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd_h1_diamond_050908.jpg Size: 74 KB
  • #1,567
  • Sep 9, 2008 3:19am Sep 9, 2008 3:19am
Quoting Igrok
~~Perhaps you wanna use me as a contrarian indicator?
Just when I think I've found every way to lose money in fx along comes another one!
Good Trading
  • #1,568
  • Sep 9, 2008 10:35pm Sep 9, 2008 10:35pm
Hello Mr. Toshchakov,

I believe I have spotted a triangle on "geppy" monthly.

From what I can observe, this triangle might be ready for a break on the downside.

The "coloured area" (salmon) on this zoomed out chart would embrace the 2/3-3/4 of a lifetime for it. This makes me think about the break.

You have previously mentioned that the target has still not being reached.

From this trendline, target would be around 178.80-179.60, depending when exactly price would reach this trendline.

1) Am I assuming the right trendline and therefore the right target area?
2) If it indeed is a triangle, wouldn't you say it's fond to be broken in a few months towards the downside?

Thanks in advance.

Once again, always a pleasure being able to share thoughts and ideas with you.

JP.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp_jpy_mn_09_09_2008_zoom_out_triangle.gif Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp_jpy_mn_09_09_2008_zoom_in_ltl.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #1,569
  • Sep 9, 2008 10:42pm Sep 9, 2008 10:42pm
Quoting Igrok
Besides, anyway I had no other choice at that moment.
What do you mean? Did somebody hold a gun to your head and say: TRADE!
  • #1,570
  • Sep 10, 2008 12:30am Sep 10, 2008 12:30am
Quoting jupiter_peak

I believe I have spotted a triangle on "geppy" monthly.

JP.

Doesn't look like consecutive moves on the inside of that triangle. Touches the top, then 2 touchs of the bottom, then another one on top, which doesn't make those lines of any technical significance.

Perhaps drawn a little differently you could make a guesstimate of what might become a significant line.. my thoughts anyways
  • #1,571
  • Sep 10, 2008 7:46am Sep 10, 2008 7:46am
You are probably right.

I was thinking the same.

I believe this "version "makes more technical sense.

In this case, the triangle would not be ready to break at this point.

JP.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp_jpy_mn_10_09_2008_zoom_out_triangle.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #1,572
  • Sep 10, 2008 8:00am Sep 10, 2008 8:00am
Hello Mr. Toshchakov,

I see a HUGE diamond on AUSUSD.

If so, it loks to me this pair could be headed to the lower trendline of the regular triangle.

This would take us to the 0.5 - 0.6 area.

Is my assumption right? Are we indeed observing a free fall on this pair?

Best,

JP.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud_usd_mn_10_09_2008_zoom_out_diamond.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #1,573
  • Sep 10, 2008 3:46pm Sep 10, 2008 3:46pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
Hello Mr. Toshchakov,

I see a HUGE diamond on AUSUSD.

If so, it loks to me this pair could be headed to the lower trendline of the regular triangle.

This would take us to the 0.5 - 0.6 area.

Is my assumption right? Are we indeed observing a free fall on this pair?

Best,

JP.
Right. Similar picture on all the majors.
  • #1,574
  • Sep 10, 2008 3:47pm Sep 10, 2008 3:47pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
Hello Mr. Toshchakov,

I believe I have spotted a triangle on "geppy" monthly.

From what I can observe, this triangle might be ready for a break on the downside.

The "coloured area" (salmon) on this zoomed out chart would embrace the 2/3-3/4 of a lifetime for it. This makes me think about the break.

You have previously mentioned that the target has still not being reached.

From this trendline, target would be around 178.80-179.60, depending when exactly price would reach this trendline.

1) Am I assuming the right trendline and therefore the right target area?
2) If it indeed is a triangle, wouldn't you say it's fond to be broken in a few months towards the downside?

Thanks in advance.

Once again, always a pleasure being able to share thoughts and ideas with you.

JP.
Unlikely to be broken on the third touch. More likely to see a good bounce first. Then it might try the upper line again with the following break on the upside.
  • #1,575
  • Sep 10, 2008 4:11pm Sep 10, 2008 4:11pm
It seems that about a thousand-pips bounce is very likely to occur rather soon (from about current levels +- another 150-200 pips)on all the majors and likely on the JPY crosses as well. EUR/JPY might target as high as 159.00 - 163.00 level again.
  • #1,576
  • Sep 10, 2008 7:35pm Sep 10, 2008 7:35pm
Quoting Igrok
It seems that about a thousand-pips bounce is very likely to occur rather soon (from about current levels +- another 150-200 pips)on all the majors and likely on the JPY crosses as well. EUR/JPY might target as high as 159.00 - 163.00 level again.
I probably "see" what you mean.

FIber (EURUSD), is lacking a second LH in order for another trendline to be drawn so we can complete a triangle thus creating a diamond.

You once told me that USDx are almost Inversely co-related. With a better live feed, I was able to see resistance @~81.01. Most probably, this resistance will hold price for a while. Looks like USDx is endorsing a very diamond-likely formation to me as well.

All majors have formed diamond like pictures.
This would make sense to me because EURUSD is the last of all majors to be forming a diamond since it has such a recent history if compared to the other majors.

Now, it seems as if we have a trendline @ ~1.3879. Looks to me that if we get a 1000 pip bounce the LH would create a very acute angle and create a very odd (not very symetrical diamond). Maybe a bigger bounce up?

As a conclusion as USDx will get "hold" for a whie, so should al the majors and geppy+EJ.

Are my assumptions right?

I send a chart with a "proposed" bounce that would illustrate my thoughts and observations.

I also send a chart of USDx.

All he best and hoping to be making some progress,

JP.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur_usd_mn_10_09_2008_zoom_out_lacking_tl_for_diamond.gif Size: 15 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx_mn_10_09_2008_diamond_resistance.gif Size: 11 KB
  • #1,577
  • Sep 10, 2008 7:46pm Sep 10, 2008 7:46pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
I probably "see" what you mean.

FIber (EURUSD), is lacking a second LH in order for another trendline to be drawn so we can complete a triangle thus creating a diamond.

You once told me that USDx are almost Inversely co-related. With a better live feed, I was able to see resistance @~81.01. Most probably, this resistance will hold price for a while. Looks like USDx is endorsing a very diamond-likely formation to me as well.

All majors have formed diamond like pictures.
This would make sense to me because EURUSD is the last of all majors to be forming a diamond since it has such a recent history if compared to the other majors.

Now, it seems as if we have a trendline @ ~1.3879. Looks to me that if we get a 1000 pip bounce the LH would create a very acute angle and create a very odd (not very symetrical diamond). Maybe a bigger bounce up?

As a conclusion as USDx will get "hold" for a whie, so should al the majors and geppy+EJ.

Are my assumptions right?

I send a chart with a "proposed" bounce that would illustrate my thoughts and observations.

I also send a chart of USDx.

All he best and hoping to be making some progress,

JP.
I doubt we will reach those levels again. Both AUD/USD and NZD/USD have broken their 2001 TL significantly. EUR/USD correlates over the long term with both of these. EUR/USD will soon follow.

We are dealing with the unwinding of large position trades that have been held for many years in the positive carry direction. Don't hope for too many retracements.
  • #1,578
  • Sep 10, 2008 7:46pm Sep 10, 2008 7:46pm
Quoting Igrok
It seems that about a thousand-pips bounce is very likely to occur rather soon (from about current levels +- another 150-200 pips)on all the majors and likely on the JPY crosses as well. EUR/JPY might target as high as 159.00 - 163.00 level again.

How did u get this conclusion ?

Would love to know... thks.
Keep it simple and sweet !
  • #1,579
  • Sep 10, 2008 7:54pm Sep 10, 2008 7:54pm
Quoting fxterrapin
I doubt we will reach those levels again. Both AUD/USD and NZD/USD have broken their 2001 TL significantly. EUR/USD correlates over the long term with both of these. EUR/USD will soon follow.

We are dealing with the unwinding of large position trades that have been held for many years in the positive carry direction. Don't hope for too many retracements.
Ok, thanx for your answer. But could you please let the OWNER of this thread answer?

I would appreciate this very much.

Thanks and all the best,

JP.
  • #1,580
  • Edited 9:28pm Sep 10, 2008 8:37pm | Edited 9:28pm
There're a lot of debts have been left on the way from the very top and to the current bottoms. I think it would be reasonable to shake out all the USD bulls by making a sharp correction that might be able to cover all the levels to be filled. It might start ass (just love this typo ) soon as today and to last just 5-6 weeks before USD will start to regain its strength again. The main trendline on the EUR/USD is unlikely to hold as every other pair had not had a problem of penetrating its own main lines on the very first approach.
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